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2011 Draft Prep Guide
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David Gonos

Draft preview: Auction Strategies

I like steak. Who doesn't like steak? I mean, even a vegetarian probably likes steak -- just not the means to get a steak.

Sometimes, though, I like to eat a hamburger. It's essentially the same animal, with the same heat applied to it, and it all ends up in the same place (my stomach) through the same porthole (my mouth). But it's still different.

That's how an auction is. It's still the same Fantasy Baseball league once the seasons starts. You still need to have a relatively good grasp of MLB players and you still need 8-14 owners to get together for the dispersal of said players.

But an auction has so much more to offer when considering different strategies to dominate your league.

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We're not suggesting that you change your current league into an auction format, but if you are thinking of starting up a second league -- definitely consider making it an auction league.

In an auction league, you can get any player you choose, as opposed to a regular straight draft, where if you are in the back end, you can write off any chances of getting Albert Pujols or Jose Reyes. And you get the added enjoyment of trying to outsmart your opponents by tricking them into bidding more or by waiting in the weeds for bargains.

Each owner gets $260 to purchase 23 players, and then you finish the night with a six-round reserve draft. Welcome to old school Fantasy Baseball!

Set your budget for each player you expect to get drafted, and then try to split groups of players at each position into tiers. As the draft progresses, try to get the best values within each tier at each position.

About halfway through the auction, you might notice that there are a good number of players that went for much more than you expected, which means the upcoming players are probably going to go for lower than you expected. This is the auction fulcrum, where the value of players suddenly shifts and bargains are around every corner. Try to save money so you can take advantage when this happens, but make sure you still get a couple high-price players for around the money you budgeted early on.

With 23 players to draft and start, a Fantasy Baseball auction is not like a Fantasy Football auction, where the superstars are few and far between. You can afford to let Pujols go for an exorbitant price, because there's a good chance you'll get a solid first baseman for about half the price to go with an excellent outfielder that you used your surplus on.

For those that are handy with a spreadsheet, consider setting one up for your team at least. Break it down to show what you have to spend total, as well as what your highest bid can be on any individual player. The way you do that is by taking your total available salary dollars and subtracting $1 for every open roster spot (since $1 is the minimum that can be spent).

Random tips

Locate the big-mouth in the room –- and sit as far away from him as you can. You don't want to miss out on a $5 bid on the closer you've been waiting on just because Chatty Charlie was expounding on why his pitching staff is the greatest ever created.

Remember that this is a huge poker game. Talk up the players you don't want and keep quiet about players you do want. This isn't rocket science ... If you talk badly about a player that is currently up for bid, you will drive down the salary. Just shut up.

Make sure you realize as the auction moves along that you have enough decent players left on the board for you to spend your money. You don't want to get caught with money still on the table after the auction ends ... Don't nominate a player you want in the early going, but as you head into the final half, only nominate players you want, and only nominate them at $1. Let someone else climb the salary scale. You have all the time in the world, so use it wisely.

Change your bidding style == bid early on some players and late on others. You don't want people to know if you are about to bail on a player or if you plan on bidding up another $15.

Try to nominate a better player at the same position as the player you just won. In other words, if you just won Rickie Weeks for $13, you want to make sure that Robinson Cano goes off the board soon, while people still have money. Once bidding on Cano gets to $10 and slows, you can say, "He's waaaaay better than Weeks, and he went for $13!" That could induce owners into spending much more than even you had pegged Cano for.

If you have extra cash as the auction starts to wind down, start bidding $2 for the players you want to assure you don't get outbid for the best of the remainders.

Don't discount the mental powers of zero! If you are in a bidding war with an opponent, and the price begins to escalate to $20, force his hand. Instead of bidding $18, allowing him to go to just $19 == you bid $19. For some reason, it's much tougher mentally for someone to go to $20, entering the next series of digits, than it is to go to just $19.

Once you get to the final few rounds of the auction, try to get your No. 2 catcher earlier than everyone else. Since most owners aren't going to be dying to spend more than $1 on their second backstop, they become like kickers in a Fantasy Football auction, which means first come-first serve. The 16th-rated catcher can cost you the same as the 24th-rated catcher if you do it at the right time.

Finally, your best strategy is being well prepared, well read and well rested. Just like when you run a race, especially an endurance race, you need to give yourself every advantage early on or else you'll be looking at your opponents' backs the entire time.

Have a question for the Fantasy Baseball writers? How about a comment or a suggestion? Feel free to email us at DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Please add "Attn: Auctions" so we know which column you are referring to. We might not be able to answer all questions due to a large volume, but we’ll do our best.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, then he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps this rumor regarding the Angels might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. The Angels could afford to trade Bobby Abreu to the Yankees, who are looking for DH. But this point is moot until Burnett agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season.
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

Jose Veras
Veras loses arbitration case
Jose Veras, RP, MIL
12:01 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports Brewers RP Jose Veras lost his arbitration case. He will make $2 million in 2012 instead of the $2.375 million he sought in arbitration.
Analysis: Veras arrived in Milwaukee in December as part of the Casey McGehee trade with the Pirates. Veras went 2-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings for Pittsburgh last season. He won't be a closer with the Brewers and will work in middle relief. Veras is merely a low-end Fantasy RP.

Dillon Gee
Gee prepping for the long haul
Dillon Gee, SP, NYM
11:33 AM
News: Newsday reports Mets SP Dillon Gee is focusing on finishing out the 2012 season after he struggled in the second half in 2011. Gee admitted fatigue played a part in his ERA rising to 5.25 after the All-Star break. He had a 3.76 ERA in the first half. "As the months went on, my stuff just got kind of bland," Gee said. "I feel that comes from fatigue. As soon as your legs get tired, you start overcompensating one way or the other, maybe relaxing a little bit. That throws off your release point, and in the end, the movement on your pitches. Earlier in the year, when I was fresh, you could see a big difference in the video that I watched."
Analysis: Gee said he is looking "for nothing but improvement" in 2012. He clearly has figured out what his biggest hurdle is to make sure he has a successful campaign. "I've had bouts of inconsistency where I jumped a level because it's a different thing you never experienced," Gee said. "My first full year in the big leagues was a long season for me. I wasn't used to that. It's only a month longer than minor leagues, but mentally, it's challenging. Every start, you have to focus so much harder, and that drains you. So I think learning how to deal with that and knowing what to expect this next year." Gee finished 2011 with 13 wins, but it could be a little tougher for victories this season as the Mets aren't the same star-filled team they used to be. Gee is merely a late-round Fantasy flier.

Josh Beckett
Beckett throws with skipper watching
Josh Beckett, SP, BOS
11:26 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox SP Josh Beckett threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session Tuesday as new manager Bobby Valentine watched.
Analysis: After a disastrous 2010, Beckett stayed healthy for the most part in 2011 and was able to get back on track. He made 30 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA. He also had a 13-7 record and 1.03 WHIP. Beckett has had less than 10 wins in just one of his last seven seasons. The biggest risk with drafting Beckett is durability. But if he is healthy, then he can post big numbers. Look to Beckett in the early rounds on Draft Day.

Kelvin De La Cruz
Indians DFA pitcher Cruz
Kelvin De La Cruz, SP, CLE
11:20 AM
News: The Indians designated for assignment pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz on Tuesday.
Analysis: Cruz has yet to make his MLB debut, but he is 32-28 with a 4.21 ERA in six minor-league seasons. He is merely organizational depth and can be ignored in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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