It never fails. In the early months of the year, you check out some Fantasy sites or magazines and you go straight to the mock draft to see where a group of writers picked a certain player. After scanning the draft, you find your guy all the way down in the 14th round and you shake your head. How can they let your guy last that late?
Then you look at another mock draft and you find that same player selected in the sixth round. Now you don't know what to believe. You have to understand that magazine drafts are usually done in December, right after the winter meetings and before many players sign free-agent contracts. Then there are some drafts online that happen within spring training, so obviously they are more up-to-date.
This past December yours truly took part in three mock drafts with writers from various sites, including our own. There are always a number of players that, for whatever reason, people are most interested in seeing where they land. For instance, Japanese import Daisuke Matsuzaka is expected to be an excellent pitcher this season, but where should you take a chance on him in a Fantasy draft?
One of these drafts was used for our 2007 Fantasy Baseball Owners Manual and Draft Guide, which will be on newsstands in February. The other two drafts were for two other publications that will be out around the same time. All three of these drafts are for 5x5 mixed Rotisserie leagues.
We'll have more mock drafts over the next few weeks that will be better indicators as to where players are being drafted. But here is a list of players you should make a point of following in mock drafts throughout the spring.
Sorting it all out
For the most part, Albert Pujols is the first name thrown out at the start of every draft, not just writer's drafts. Although, Johan Santana was picked first in one of the three drafts I participated in. Santana went first, third and fifth in these drafts. Ryan Howard was a top-four pick in all three and speedster Jose Reyes was a top-six pick. Alex Rodriguez was snatched up in the first round with the fifth pick twice and with the sixth pick once.
Roger Clemens, SP, free agent: The Rocket will likely hit the ground running midseason once again this year. With which team, who knows? Figure the Yankees and Red Sox remain possibilities, with Houston still the frontrunner. He was selected in the 14th, 16th and 22nd rounds of these drafts. If you have room to reserve a player on your squad, you should definitely consider grabbing him in the mid-teens. Another option is to trade for him in April or May, once his Fantasy owner needs help because of injury. Trade a solid starter for him and a lesser player that you can use right away. Don't forget, retirement is still an option as well.
Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City: Gordon hit .325 with 29 homers, 101 RBI and 22 steals in 130 games at Double-A Wichita last season. He was drafted in only two of these three leagues, going in the 17th and the 23rd rounds. If he can earn the starting job in Kansas City out of spring training, he'll easily make a nice corner infielder in mixed leagues. He'll need Mark Teahen to play adequate defense as an outfielder in order to start on opening day. Gordon will be a five-category star once he hits his stride in the majors.
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Felix Hernandez enters his third year as a starter.
(Getty Images)
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Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle: King Felix was going in the early rounds last spring because of a stellar debut in '05, but he didn't produce early-draft pick stats. He was taken in these three drafts in the sixth round on average this offseason. He'll reach 60 career starts in 2007, if he stays healthy, which has proven to be around when starting pitchers break out with great stats. The third-year starter will improve on the road as he matures -- his road ERA was two runs higher than his home ERA (3.47) -- and you'll be happy you grabbed him in the fifth or sixth round this year.
Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona: Johnson had back surgery in October and was still with the Yankees when these three leagues drafted. He went in the 13th, 14th and 15th rounds in these drafts. No pitcher had better run support last season than Johnson (7.51 RS per game) in Yankee pinstripes. Arizona possesses a mediocre offense, so the Big Unit will have to work for his wins. Waiting for him in the 14th or 15th rounds sounds about right.
Nick Markakis, OF, Baltimore: There are few second-year players that have Fantasy owners as excited as with Markakis. Only Hanley Ramirez hit better among rookies last year than Kake's .291 average. The Orioles' right fielder also hit .311 after the All-Star break which should get you even more excited. The experts were all over the place on this one. He was drafted in Rounds 9, 16 and 19. Figure the 16th round makes the most sense as a fourth or fifth outfielder with a ton of upside.
Pedro Martinez, SP, N.Y. Mets: Much like Clemens, Pedro is not expected to pitch until midseason. But this pitcher's status is in doubt because he's coming off of surgery for a torn rotator cuff. The Mets hope to have him back by the All-Star break, but he might not pitch like Pedro again until 2008, if ever. With the Mets' strong supporting cast, he won't have to do much to pay Fantasy dividends. He was selected in only two off the three drafts -- in the 21st and 23rd rounds.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston: The Dice Man was selected in the seventh round twice and in the ninth round once. Some of the common pitchers selected around him include Felix Hernandez, John Lackey and Ben Sheets. Matsuzaka has already drawn comparisons to former NL Rookie of the Year Hideo Nomo. Unfortunately, he's pitching in a division against two of the top-six offenses in the AL, and two other offenses that should be improved in Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Expect him to start strong and finish slow, once innings and the league catch up to him.
Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota: The premier catcher in 2006, Mauer was drafted with the sixth pick in the second round twice, and the fifth pick in the third round once. Victor Martinez was selected within 11 picks of Mauer in all three drafts. The Twins' hometown hero led the majors in batting average last season (.347) and at the tender age of 23, he has a lot of great baseball ahead of him.
Jonathan Papelbon, SP, Boston: Papelbon was nearly unhittable last year in one-inning stints as the Red Sox closer -- and that's against top-shelf AL East offenses. A tired shoulder ended his season a bit early, and Boston has decided to get him into the rotation to give him regular rest and not overuse him. Obviously a rise in ERA and WHIP is in his future and any Head-to-Head leagues that must start relief pitchers should bump him up their rankings considerably. He will strikeout a batter per inning as a starter. He was picked up in the 11th, 12th and 13th rounds of these mock drafts.
Mark Prior, SP, Chicago Cubs: The Cubs' oft-injured star pitcher was picked in the 15th round, as well as the 20th round twice, in these mock drafts. Prior has been throwing this offseason without any pain in his shoulder, but he'll likely start the season as Chicago's fifth starter, behind Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. A healthy Prior could result in another 200-strikeout season. That fact alone makes him a fantastic player to take a chance on as your No. 4 or 5 starter.
Freddy Sanchez, 3B, Pittsburgh: The NL batting title champion was picked in the 11th, 14th and 16th rounds. He hit .344 last season, but he'll be hard-pressed to come close to that number again in '07. Since the Pirates' third baseman is essentially a one-trick pony in Fantasy play, it's tough to invest too much in him. The 15th round is reasonable as a second baseman or middle infielder.
Gary Sheffield, OF, N.Y. Yankees: A wrist injury sidelined Sheff for much of last season. He came back in September to get ready for the playoffs and hit two homers in 40 at-bats, including the playoffs. He'll be fine this season, but he leaves the heavy-hitting lineup in the Bronx for Detroit, where he'll mostly be used as the DH. After being a perennial second- or third-round pick, Sheffield fell to the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds of these drafts. So waiting on him until the sixth round is reasonable.
B.J. Upton, 3B, Tampa Bay: The much-heralded second overall draft pick of 2002 was selected in the 17th and the 21st rounds, as well as the 11th round of our drafts. Consider the 11th-round grab a big reach and look to add him late in your Rotisserie drafts as a corner man or DH. His talent at the plate is certainly there. He can hit for average and power, while also serving as a demon on the basepaths. But he'll have to improve as a fielder in this, his third year in the majors, in order to nail down a position and become a Fantasy star.
Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay: What can you say about the expectations for the high-strung former No. 1 overall pick? We rated him as the No. 1 Fantasy prospect for the past two springs in our Draft Guide. He can affect all five hitting categories for Rotisserie play and has enough power to stand out in Head-to-Head formats. If he can keep his emotions in check and keep from getting suspended for a third of the season, he can be considered a No. 2 or 3 mixed-league outfielder. He was taken in Rounds 5, 7 and 9 in the drafts talked about here. Expect him to go in the eighth or ninth round in Head-to-Head formats.
Joel Zumaya, RP, Detroit: No one throws so hard so frequently as the young right-handed setup man for the Tigers. Todd Jones is still the closer in Motown, but he's not the youngest pitcher out there (38) and Zumaya is certainly the future in Detroit. He was selected in the 10th, 15th and 17th rounds in these drafts. Zumaya will notch another 100 strikeouts in relief, whether it is in the eighth or ninth inning, so he still has Fantasy value in all formats.
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