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Eric Mack

CBS SportsLine's Fantasy Guide for 2007

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Whether it's exchanging commodities or playing Fantasy Baseball, you've heard the money phrase "Buy low and sell high." That might sound nice and all, but unless you know exactly how to do it, it's a pretty cheap cliché that renders nothing.

Until you buy what we're selling.

We here at CBS SportsLine, in addition to offering the best Fantasy games and products in the universe, pay very close attention to helping you win. Whether you're playing against your friends or taking some "units" from people you could care less about, we can help you.

And we won't just give you an instruction booklet, like others might. You get the entire tool kit, with hammer and chisel.

Skeptical? You should be.

2007 DRAFT GUIDE!
2007 Owners Manual and Draft Guide
Order your copy today!

It's a good trait to possess and precisely what keeps us digging under the hood of players and their projectability. We invite you to take a look.

With the help of colleague David Gonos, we have put together a tight collection of Fantasy Baseball strategies to winning your league. We debate and compare players until ... well, until we're distracted by one of the women from sales ... and then we usually forget what we were talking about.

But, seriously, we stay focused on baseball all of our waking hours on every calendar day of the year and pass as much information on to you as our time allows.

Whether it's an auction or a draft -- Head-to-Head or Rotisserie -- Gonos' experience helps him outline the strategies that win. He presents them in a four-part draft preview. Meanwhile, yours truly has spent countless hours this winter studying how to find breakthroughs before they happen. There's always a why behind the what.

It's about finding those latter-round players who produce at early round rates. The sleepers, if you will.

But like the "Buy low, sell high," the buzzword "sleeper" is just as empty. What exactly is a sleeper?

Other than the guy who gets bored an hour into your draft and does a face plant on the table, the sleeper is a player who slips through the cracks on Draft Day. It's valuing the undervalued.

Now, to just name a few sleepers is a pretty worthless way to go about helping you find them. Because after all, when a player is hyped and everyone is ready to target him, how can he really slip past people?

(If a sleeper falls in the early rounds, and he's not there to be picked later, does it make a noise? We suppose he would if he cracked his head on the edge of the table.)

Frankly, it doesn't matter what you think of a player. It matters most what everyone else thinks, because if everyone likes him much less, you get him much later. Again, valuing the undervalued.

We will tell you how in a five-part draft series this spring. Instead of just baby feeding your league a Top 300 list of players to target without explanation -- so everyone now can over-hype them -- we meticulously define how players who fall through wind up breaking through.

Often it's a function of three specific factors -- age, talent and opportunity -- and the culmination of them is success. History and Vince Lombardi say so.

Age is a fact, talent is something we report on and opportunities are like our operators. They're standing by.

  • Someone thrust into an expanded role (last year's Chris Ray).
  • Someone coming off a quiet rookie year that has them overlooked (last year's Brian McCann, who you might be surprised to know is now our third-ranked catcher).
  • Perhaps a talented pitcher who finally finds his niche in Year 3 (last year's Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Erik Bedard).
  • Or perhaps a change of address (last year's Chris Young in spacious San Diego).

We give you rankings, rules of thumb, experts drafts and analysis and up-to-the-minute news in our beefed-up player updates, which we started last spring.

Here's a true story of what we can do for you. A reader-slash-critic of our website sent us feedback -- which we read all of, by the way.

He wanted to know why we "watered-down" our player updates to report every nit-picking time last February the Mets' Pedro Martinez was:

  • Spending time in the trainer's room ...
  • Throwing long toss ...
  • Saying how much his toe hurt ...
  • Throwing from the front of the mound ...
  • Getting on top of the mound ...
  • Trying new shoes ... seriously ...
  • Saying how much he would like to pitch in the World Baseball Classic.

Well, if that reader had just read that string of player updates instead of complaining, he would have caught something from the quotes from Pedro.

If you read our analysis last season, signs pointed to Pedro having shoulder issues. (Getty Images)  
If you read our analysis last season, signs pointed to Pedro having shoulder issues. (Getty Images)  
"Because I want to have my arm in good shape, I need to have my legs in good shape," Pedro had said. "Without a leg, there is no arm. ...

"I know it could affect my shoulder; that's the bad thing that could happen. If I don't protect myself down here, everything reflects on the shoulder."

We know how this turned out. Like a Big Papi blast on Lansdowne Street, we're dropping a bit of irony on you here.

Pedro, who was picked in the early rounds last spring, was able to pitch with some toe pain, get off to a hot start and then develop a calf problem. By the All-Star break, he was useless for Fantasy owners. By the end of the season, he was on an operating table.

And somewhere that reader was asking himself why he complained about knowing every little nuance of spring training.

Following the game every day like we do can help you predict the future almost as Pedro did. He needed surgery on a torn rotator cuff and labrum and is out until at least the All-Star break. (Uh, you might want to avoid him on Draft Day 2007!).

This Pedro example is a true story. We get criticized for helping people too well at times.

Some of the best chuckles during our work days -- save for the times we bumble one with the ladies -- is when we get an e-mail like we got just a few days ago.

"I think it is ridiculous that you basically help people run their teams," it read. "... It is not fair that if some of these owners are so stupid that you should be giving them an edge by telling them what they should do. It is one of the things I have always hated about this site and always will."

People hate us. And we are perfectly fine with it.

But, when they suggest we should not have written the column that anticipated the arrivals of talents like Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels and others, we can't help but to laugh. They get mad when our content helps someone scoop them on the waiver wire in their league.

We enjoy their pain so much, we consistently search for new ways to inflict it.

But, between chuckles and e-mail barbs, we dig into the depths of the AL and the NL. We also make it clear that we never guarantee what will happen, but instead focus our efforts on projecting what might.

When buying commodities, you will want to buy ones that mature. With that in mind, we wish you luck on your choices for Fantasy Baseball in 2007 -- make CBS SportsLine your league's choice -- and leave you with a quick-hitting list of the top Fantasy Baseball hitters under the age of 27 on opening day:

Top 10 under 27 this season
Position, player, team 2007 Rotisserie projections
1 SS Jose Reyes, NYM .302 AVG, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 119 R, 58 SB
Power is coming as Mets catalyst is growing into his skin
2 3B Miguel Cabrera, FLA .325-34-120-111-7
Couldn't stop him on young team last year, so forget it now
3 LF Carl Crawford, TB .300-19-72-100-50
Delmon Young's arrival and health of Rocco Baldelli should really help
4 3B David Wright, NYM .306-31-118-100-21
There won't be any HR Derby hangover in second half this time around
5 CF Grady Sizemore, CLE .298-30-80-120-23
This guy will be some Fantasy superstar when he hits age 27
6 RH SP Carlos Zambrano, CHC 16-8, 3.27 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.214 WHIP
Potential free-agent-to-be has motivation and better supporting cast
7 RH SP Jake Peavy, SD 15-10, 3.49 ERA, 227 Ks, 1.210 WHIP
NL ERA title, then K title ... Cy Young is next likely step
8 1B Justin Morneau, MIN .311-38-125-95-2
We knew he'd arrive, but he really mashed his way to AL MVP
8 C Joe Mauer, MIN .340-15-88-88-10
Really has to develop pop, but he's easily the class of C position
10 SS Hanley Ramirez, FLA .284-18-58-109-45
We don't think he's a fluke, because he looks so much like Reyes
Honorable mentions: CL Francisco Rodriguez, LAA; C Brian McCann, ATL; 3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS; LH SP Dontrelle Willis, FLA; 2B Robinson Cano, NYY; OF Delmon Young, TB; 2B Rickie Weeks, MIL; SP Jered Weaver, LAA; SP Scott Kazmir, TB; SP Felix Hernandez, SEA; SP Justin Verlander, DET; CL Huston Street, OAK; OF Jeff Francoeur, ATL; C Russell Martin, LAD.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, then he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps this rumor regarding the Angels might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. The Angels could afford to trade Bobby Abreu to the Yankees, who are looking for DH. But this point is moot until Burnett agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season.
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

Jose Veras
Veras loses arbitration case
Jose Veras, RP, MIL
12:01 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports Brewers RP Jose Veras lost his arbitration case. He will make $2 million in 2012 instead of the $2.375 million he sought in arbitration.
Analysis: Veras arrived in Milwaukee in December as part of the Casey McGehee trade with the Pirates. Veras went 2-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings for Pittsburgh last season. He won't be a closer with the Brewers and will work in middle relief. Veras is merely a low-end Fantasy RP.

Dillon Gee
Gee prepping for the long haul
Dillon Gee, SP, NYM
11:33 AM
News: Newsday reports Mets SP Dillon Gee is focusing on finishing out the 2012 season after he struggled in the second half in 2011. Gee admitted fatigue played a part in his ERA rising to 5.25 after the All-Star break. He had a 3.76 ERA in the first half. "As the months went on, my stuff just got kind of bland," Gee said. "I feel that comes from fatigue. As soon as your legs get tired, you start overcompensating one way or the other, maybe relaxing a little bit. That throws off your release point, and in the end, the movement on your pitches. Earlier in the year, when I was fresh, you could see a big difference in the video that I watched."
Analysis: Gee said he is looking "for nothing but improvement" in 2012. He clearly has figured out what his biggest hurdle is to make sure he has a successful campaign. "I've had bouts of inconsistency where I jumped a level because it's a different thing you never experienced," Gee said. "My first full year in the big leagues was a long season for me. I wasn't used to that. It's only a month longer than minor leagues, but mentally, it's challenging. Every start, you have to focus so much harder, and that drains you. So I think learning how to deal with that and knowing what to expect this next year." Gee finished 2011 with 13 wins, but it could be a little tougher for victories this season as the Mets aren't the same star-filled team they used to be. Gee is merely a late-round Fantasy flier.

Josh Beckett
Beckett throws with skipper watching
Josh Beckett, SP, BOS
11:26 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox SP Josh Beckett threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session Tuesday as new manager Bobby Valentine watched.
Analysis: After a disastrous 2010, Beckett stayed healthy for the most part in 2011 and was able to get back on track. He made 30 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA. He also had a 13-7 record and 1.03 WHIP. Beckett has had less than 10 wins in just one of his last seven seasons. The biggest risk with drafting Beckett is durability. But if he is healthy, then he can post big numbers. Look to Beckett in the early rounds on Draft Day.

Kelvin De La Cruz
Indians DFA pitcher Cruz
Kelvin De La Cruz, SP, CLE
11:20 AM
News: The Indians designated for assignment pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz on Tuesday.
Analysis: Cruz has yet to make his MLB debut, but he is 32-28 with a 4.21 ERA in six minor-league seasons. He is merely organizational depth and can be ignored in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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