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Eric Mack

Draft preview: Top 100 rookies to target

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Part II in Emack's series on rookies and prospects for 2007.

We have cobbled together the Top 100 Fantasy Baseball rookies to target on Draft Day. But we have to warn you: It is not a top prospects list, which projects long-term potential.

Instead, it is a ranking of Draft Day value for yearly leagues -- assuming you're drafting in March and don't have keepers. We take into account talent, opportunity and proximity to having an impact this year alone, giving you options on fliers to take in deeper leagues on Draft Day.

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Trust us: It is harder to project what a Class A prospect might do in 2007 than it is to forecast him long term. He might never get called up ... or he might be the next Albert Pujols. It's a variable that's missing from top prospects lists, where seeing the high ranking of Yankee teenage OF Jose Tabata won't do anything for you. (In fact, Tabata didn't even make our cut).

Also, Angels shortstop farmhand Brandon Wood is an elite prospect, but the fact he is currently slated to open the year in Triple-A puts him at No. 26 below. The same can be said for Philip Hughes, the highly touted Yankees 20-year-old pitching phenom, who checks in at No. 19. For a more in-depth look at the Top 25, click here.

Also, if you think some of these rankings are out of whack, click here. There we list the rookies picked in our AL-only and NL-only analyst leagues.

Note: All ages are based on what they will be opening day (April 1).

Top 100 Rookies to Target on Draft Day
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2006 high Destination
1 Delmon Young, TB 21 RF Majors Majors
He should break 20-20, but we still see a future 30-30 man here
2 Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS 26 RH SP Japan Majors
Hype will likely have him overrated, but he has big-time potential
3 Alex Gordon, KC 23 3B Double-A Majors
Royals say they will give him a shot this spring, can we trust them?
4 Chris B. Young, ARI 23 CF Majors Majors
Triple-A numbers didn't match hype, but still have to be intrigued
5 Matt Garza, MIN 23 RH SP Majors Majors
Fast-rising flame-thrower was promising in spots late last year
6 Mike Pelfrey, NYM 23 RH SP Majors Majors
Enters spring training as No. 5 starter and has big-time upside
7 Troy Tulowitzki, COL 22 SS Majors Majors
It didn't take long for Tulo to render Clint Barmes useless
8 Chris Iannetta, COL 23 C Majors Majors
Don't be J.D. Closser-shy here, Iannetta is better, we promise
9 Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD 25 3B Majors Majors
You don't trade a Josh Barfield unless you have conviction here
10 Kei Igawa, NYY 27 LH SP Japan Majors
Not a Dice-K, but we think he can be the better side of Kaz Ishii
11 Homer Bailey, CIN 20 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Has to be very convincing this spring, but his talent is worth gamble
12 Akinori Iwamura, TB 28 3B Japan Majors
Even Rays say power won't translate, but he's worth an AL-only flier
13 Adam Lind, TOR 23 OF Majors Majors
Showed he can mash, but has to earn at-bats after Big Hurt signing
14 Jason Botts, TEX 26 DH Majors Majors
Big power man has wide-open opportunity in still great hitter's park
15 Jeff Baker, COL 25 OF Majors Majors
Will get his at-bats at 3B-1B-RF-LF spelling middle of Rox order
16 Miguel Montero, ARI 23 C Majors Majors
If he beats out Chris Snyder, he's worth look even in mixed formats
17 Dustin Pedroia, BOS 23 2B Majors Majors
Minor league numbers are as intriguing as his talent and opportunity
18 Jeff Mathis, LAA 23 C Majors Majors
Another repeat name on this list; has to overcome disappointing '06
19 Phil Hughes,NYY 20 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Talent top notch, but we cannot see Yanks taking him out of spring
20 John Danks, CHW 21 LH SP Triple-A Triple-A
This ranking is on shred of hope he opens year in ChiSox rotation
21 Jason Hirsh, COL 25 RH SP Majors Triple-A
Astros gave up on him way too soon, but he needs to earn spot
22 Josh Fields, CHW 24 3B Majors Majors
Move him into top 5-10 if he wins starting spot in LF this spring
23 Hunter Pence, HOU 23 CF Double-A Triple-A
CF is clear for the taking, if not this spring, then by midseason
24 Jeff Niemann, TB 24 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Drafted in Jered Weaver-Justin Verlander-Jeremy Sowers class
25 Edinson Volquez, TEX 23 RH SP Majors Majors
Only worth this spot if he reaches potential and earns rotation spot
26 Brandon Wood, LAA 22 SS Double-A Triple-A
Power potential for position off the charts; might be best minor leaguer
27 Philip Humber, NYM 24 RH SP Majors Triple-A
Another from famed '04 class; swap spots if he beats out Pelfrey
28 Andy LaRoche, LAD 23 3B Triple-A Triple-A
Huge pop; if not for shoulder last year, he would be opening-day 3B
29 Kory Casto, WAS 25 LF Double-A Triple-A
Not an elite prospect, but has shot at starting on opening day for Nats
30 James Loney, LAD 22 1B Majors Triple-A
If not for Nomar re-signing, this future monster would be top 10 here
31 Adam Miller, CLE 22 RH SP Triple-A Triple-A
Sowers is ahead of him, but he's a bigger prospect due to K potential
32 Ryan J. Braun, MIL 23 3B Double-A Triple-A
Alex Gordon -lite has shot if Corey Koskie (concussion) isn't ready
33 Yovani Gallardo, MIL 21 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Do cartwheels when filthy Francisco Liriano -like talent gets call
34 Humberto Sanchez, NYY 23 RHP Triple-A Majors
Just a hunch, but he could be this year's Joel Zumaya relief find
35 Joey Votto, CIN 23 1B Double-A Triple-A
Huge bat blocked by just Scott Hatteberg; two great reasons to buy!
36 Reid Brignac, TB 21 SS Double-A Double-A
Offense at thin spot is intriguing and might lead to quick rise
37 Evan Longoria, TB 21 3B Double-A Double-A
Bigger prospect than Brignac or Braun, but more blocked at 3B in TB
38 Andrew Miller, DET 21 LH SP Majors Double-A
Tigers say second-half return to bigs not out of question this year
39 Tim Lincecum, SF 22 RH SP Class A Double-A
'06 pick extremely raw, but Giants feel he could be factor late 2007
40 Billy Butler, KC 20 RF Double-A Triple-A
Gordon forced him to RF, but his bat will wind up playing anywhere
41 Andrew McCutchen, PIT 20 CF Double-A Double-A
Similar to Lastings Milledge; could arrive quickly but blossom later
42 Ian Stewart, COL 21 3B Double-A Triple-A
Injury-plagued '06 doesn't scare us; potential Helton trade excites us
43 Ryan Sweeney, CHW 22 OF Majors Triple-A
Has chance to open year in majors, but numbers aren't great yet
44 Erick Aybar, LAA 23 SS Majors Majors
Stuck between Orlando Cabrera and Wood, but can get SBs now
45 Felix Pie, CHC 22 CF Triple-A Triple-A
Might get chance to debut this April, but won't star right away
46 Alberto Callaspo, ARI 23 2B Majors Majors
Great contact bat, but a UTL man who doesn't hit HRs or get SBs
47 Adam Jones, SEA 21 OF Majors Triple-A
Rose quickly, but scouts like him more than statisticians do so far
48 Carlos Ruiz, PHI 28 C Majors Majors
Old for a "prospect" but opportunity, position and bat are intriguing
49 Luke Hochevar, KC 23 RH SP Class A Double-A
Ranked low, but you can't anticipate an '07 call-up
50 Cameron Maybin, DET 19 CF Class A Double-A
Tigers don't mind moving prospects quickly, but he's really young
51 Jay Bruce, CIN 19 OF Class A Class A
Top 5 on prospect lists, but low here because he's keeper-only
52 Scott Elbert, LAD 21 LH SP Double-A Double-A
LH version of 2006's Chad Billingsley; could arrive in second half
53 Glen Perkins, MIN 24 LH SP Majors Triple-A
A top 15 if he makes rotation this spring (possible, but not likely)
54 Micah Owings, ARI 24 RH SP Triple-A Triple-A
Big Unit trade slows him up, but won't keep him from '07 arrival
55 Shawn Hill, WAS 24 RH SP Majors Majors
Tommy John patient will have rotation spot if healthy this spring
56 Matt Albers, HOU 24 RH SP Majors Triple-A
Competes for spot, but regardless helps Astros, NL-onlys in '07
57 Jeff Clement, SEA 23 C Triple-A Triple-A
Coming off bad '06 and needs an injury to soph Kenji Johjima
58 Jarrod Saltalamacchia, ATL 21 C Double-A Double-A
Supposed to be better than Brian McCann; might have to move
59 Thomas Diamond, TEX 23 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Lost some high-end luster, but should develop into solid starter
60 Carlos Gonzalez, ARI 21 OF Double-A Double-A
Even better long term than Chris B. Young, but further behind
61 Joe Koshansky, COL 24 1B Double-A Triple-A
Helton deal would have opened door, but he needs more time
62 Daric Barton, OAK 21 1B Triple-A Triple-A
Disaster '06 in Triple-A means he won't challenge Dan Johnson
63 Travis Buck, OAK 23 OF Double-A Triple-A
Power isn't there yet, but he's not far from bigs and might pop
64 Nick Adenhart, LAA 20 RH SP Class A Class A
Popular name at trade deadline; could be reason he gets early look
65 Tyler Lumsden, KC 23 LH SP Double-A Triple-A
Has shot at rotation, but that's good-news, bad-news right now
66 Javier Herrera, OAK 21 OF DNP injured Double-A
Made Andre Ethier expendable then lost '06 to elbow surgery
67 Gio Gonzalez, CHW 21 LH RP Double-A Triple-A
Nice talent and White Sox say he could compete for No. 5 spot
68 Justin Huber, KC 24 DH Majors Triple-A
Ryan Shealy blocks him; he's running out of time and positions
69 Trevor Crowe, CLE 23 OF Double-A Triple-A
Had he been able to transition to 2B, he would be higher here
70 Ryan Goleski, OAK 24 OF Double-A Majors
Raw Rule-5er had awesome numbers and has to make roster
71 Jerry Owens, CHW 26 OF Majors Triple-A
Not a hitter, but he has AL-only value in Roto leagues for SBs
72 Joel Guzman, TB 22 3B/1B/OF Majors Triple-A
Numbers don't equal talent yet, but we're not giving up here
73 Delwyn Young, LAD 24 OF Majors Triple-A
Pop was a lot more impressive when he was a 2B, but still
74 Elijah Dukes, TB 22 OF Triple-A Triple-A
Dukes of Hazzard remains a problem child, but a talented one
75 Joaquin Arias, TEX 22 SS Majors Triple-A
Plus speed but blocked by two studly Fantasy stars at SS/2B
76 Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS 23 OF Double-A Triple-A
Speedster could take over in CF if (when?) Coco Crisp fails
77 Larry Broadway, WAS 26 1B Triple-A Triple-A
No longer a high-ceiling talent, but might start on opening day
78 Kevin Slowey, MIN 22 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Doesn't have knockout stuff, but you cannot argue with results
79 Brian Bannister, KC 26 RH SP Majors Majors
Trade to KC gives him opportunity, but ruins '07 Fantasy potential
80 Cesar Carrillo, SD 22 RH SP Triple-A Triple-A
If he doesn't need elbow surgery, he's a big-time sleeper prospect
81 Matt Chico, WAS 23 LH SP Double-A Triple-A
Wide-open Nats rotation could help him make quick rise in spring
82 Garrett Mock, WAS 23 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
With Chico, Livan Hernandez might nets Nats two rotation Ps
83 Anthony Lerew, ATL 24 RH SP Majors Triple-A
Move in and out of bullpen ruined his '06, but might surprise
84 Colby Rasmus, STL 20 OF Class A Class A
A raw talent but Cardinals aren't shy about using young players
85 Justin Upton, ARI 19 OF Class A Class A
Might he star before B.J.? Headed to hitter's league, so look out!
86 Chris Volstad, FLA 20 RH SP Class A Class A
Too young to be considered in earnest in '07, but very talented
87 Clay Buchholz, BOS 22 RH SP Class A Class A
Numbers look filthy, but Red Sox have ample depth right now
88 Mitch Talbot, TB 23 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Can move up quick because he can steal rotation spot in spring
89 Blake Hawksworth, STL 23 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Cards have some experimental SPs, so he could arrive quickly
90 Terry Evans, LAA 25 OF Double-A Triple-A
Ridiculous '06 numbers came out of nowhere; keep him in mind
91 George Kottaras, BOS 23 C Triple-A Triple-A
Another Jason Varitek injury paves way for decent C prospect
92 Jesus Flores, WAS 22 C Class A Majors
Rule-5 draftee C coming off 21-HR season making a huge leap
93 Anderson Hernandez, NYM 24 2B Majors Triple-A
Weak bat, but steals, plays D and has just Jose Valentin ahead of him
94 Jose Garcia, FLA 22 RHP Majors Majors
Long shot for rotation, but soar him up list if he wins closer's job
95 Henry Owens, FLA 27 RHP Majors Majors
Old for a rookie, but converted C has outside shot at closer, too
96 Michael Bourn, PHI 24 OF Majors Triple-A
Speedster can work way into at-bats, if so, consider him in Roto
97 Beltran Perez, WAS 25 RH SP Majors Majors
Might have shot at rotation, which is only way he's useful in '07
98 Neil Walker, PIT 21 C Double-A Double-A
Injury-plagued year and Ronny Paulino's arrival slows Walker up
99 Jeff Fiorentino, BAL 23 OF Majors Triple-A
Already up in Baltimore twice, but needs to dominate minors
100 Andrew Sonnanstine, TB 24 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Another potential Devil Ray rotation prospect to keep an eye on

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Top 100 rookies in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, then he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kyle Seager
Seager gets work at first base
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
1:25 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners 3B Kyle Seager took grounders at first base Tuesday.
Analysis: It's interesting to see Seager working at another position in camp with manager Eric Wedge calling him the front-runner for the third-base job. However, the team could be interested to see if Seager could play another position in a pinch. Justin Smoak is still the team's first baseman and Mike Carp is his expected backup. Carlos Guillen can also play first base, so we can't look too much into Seager taking grounders at first just yet. His main focus should be winning the 3B job over the likes of Alex Liddi and Chone Figgins. Consider Seager nothing more than a late-round, low-end Fantasy corner infielder on Draft Day. He does have some sleeper potential, but don't reach for him in drafts.

Travis Hafner
Hafner on Yankees radar?
Travis Hafner, DH, CLE
1:19 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports the Indians have inquired about Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, who has been heavily involved in trade rumors. The talks with the Indians revolve around a Burnett for DH Travis Hafner deal. However, Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade, and the Yankees also appear content with the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: This trade rumor is definitely interesting because a trade to the Yankees would immediately elevate Hafner's Fantasy appeal. He would end up going to a hitter's park and be inserted into one of the best lineups in baseball. That means a ton of chances to fill the stat sheet. However, it doesn't appear this deal is imminent, so Fantasy owners shouldn't get their hopes up. It's best to view Hafner as a low-end, injury-risk Fantasy option for the late rounds of deep formats on Draft Day. Hafner continues to post poor home run totals and hasn't played more than 100 games in three of his last four seasons.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season. "Kosuke adds to our outfield depth and gives Robin (Ventura) another left-handed bat to mix into the lineup based on matchups," assistant general manager Rick Hahn said in a statement. "He can play center field and right and provides flexibility to our roster."
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

Joba Chamberlain
Chamberlain throws for third time
Joba Chamberlain, RP, NYY
1:06 PM
News: The New York Post reports Yankees SP Joba Chamberlain, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, threw 20 pitches on Tuesday for the third time this year. Chamberlain is throwing from a half-mound.
Analysis: It appears Chamberlain is progressing nicely from his elbow surgery. But there is no guarantee he will be ready for the start of the season. Let Chamberlain go undrafted in most Fantasy formats, and let him prove that he is healthy and productive before adding him to rosters that reward for middle relievers.

 
 
 
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