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Eric Mack

Draft preview: Houston Astros outlook

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Team-by-team outlooks

Unfortunately for Houston, this spring will be more about who isn't in camp than who actually is.

Roger Clemens has the Astros hangin' again and this time his best buddy isn't in town to convince him to jump on the bandwagon in midseason. It's unfair to offseason signee Carlos Lee, really.

El Caballo (spanish for "the horse") fits perfectly in Houston's homer park -- especially with that short left-field porch -- and hitting behind Lance Berkman should leave him with ample RBI opportunities. Lee no longer will be motivated by the allure of the almighty dollar, but he has been nothing more than a masher in his career.

In real baseball terms, the Astros can compete in the NL Central, but they need a number of things to go right -- particularly in the back end of their mostly inexperienced rotation.

Spring position battles

Center, right field -- Chris Burke and Luke Scott vs. Jason Lane and Hunter Pence

Burke and Scott should open as the Astros' starters, but the arrival of Pence will be one of Fantasy's most anticipated arrivals in the first half. It might even come before opening day. Pence is one of the better slugging outfield prospects in baseball and has room to grow and a great home ballpark to eventually call home. Burke is a new starter sleeper and Scott could be an overlooked sophomore on Draft Day. Lane's star has fallen, but there is still pop there, which makes him worth a flier in NL-only formats as a reserve.

Starting pitchers Nos. 4-5 -- Wandy Rodriguez, Ezequiel Astacio vs. Matt Albers, Chris Sampson and Fernando Nieve

This is not an exciting group -- especially because it's coming at the expense of the departures of Andy Pettitte and Clemens (possibly). Consider the back end of the Astros' rotation a work in progress and consider the winners nothing more than fill-in options in most Fantasy leagues. This team will win games and score runs, but these arms shouldn't be trusted at this point.

Third base -- Morgan Ensberg vs. Mike Lamb

Ensberg has the job going into spring and will keep it unless his shoulder is not sound. Consider him an injury-risk sleeper in the late rounds of mixed leagues. Lamb is nothing more than a reserve for deeper NL-only leagues.

Closer -- Brad Lidge vs. Dan Wheeler

This should be no contest, but it shouldn't have been last season. The Astros say Lidge has the job going into spring and we don't see Wheeler taking save opportunities if he stays healthy. Consider Lidge a sleeper on Draft Day, but we have seen him go earlier than expected in many of our analysts drafts to date. Wheeler is nothing more than a middle reliever with the potential to pick up save scraps at this point.

Houston Astros Outlook
Projected lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Craig Biggio 2B 1 Roy Oswalt RH
2 Chris Burke CF 2 Jason Jennings RH
3 Lance Berkman 1B 3 Woody Williams RH
4 Carlos Lee LF 4 Wandy Rodriguez LH
5 Morgan Ensberg 3B 5 Ezequiel Astacio RH
6 Luke Scott RF Alt Matt Albers RH
7 Adam Everett SS Top bullpen arms
8 Brad Ausmus C CL Brad Lidge RH
Top bench options SU Dan Wheeler RH
R Jason Lane OF RP Fernando Nieve RH
R Mark Loretta UTL RP Chad Qualls RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2006 high Destination
1 Hunter Pence 23 OF Double-A Triple-A
Big-time power prospect has outside chance at opening day
2 Matt Albers 24 RH SP Majors Triple-A
In mix for No. 5 starter's spot but needs time in Triple-A
3 Troy Patton 21 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Should be able to help 'Stros, Fantasy owners in 2nd half
4 Juan Gutierrez 23 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Baseball America says this arm has highest ceiling of all
5 Chris Sampson 28 RH SP Majors Majors
Failing a bid for No. 5 spot, he could be late-inning reliever
Best of the rest: OF Josh Anderson, 24; RHP Jimmy Barthmaier, 23; LHP Mark McLemore, 27; RHP Paul Estrada, 24; OF Eli Iorg, 24; C Hector Gimenez, 24; C Max Sapp, 19; C J.R. Towles, 23; C Lou Santangelo, 24; RHP Chad Reinek, 24; RHP Felipe Paulino Del Guidice, 23; 3B Koby Clemens, 20; RHP Chance Douglass, 23; OF Josh Flores, 21; OF Jordan Parraz, 22; SS Tommy Manzella, 23; OF Mike Rodriguez, 27.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Astros outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, then he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps this rumor regarding the Angels might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. The Angels could afford to trade Bobby Abreu to the Yankees, who are looking for DH. But this point is moot until Burnett agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season.
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

Jose Veras
Veras loses arbitration case
Jose Veras, RP, MIL
12:01 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports Brewers RP Jose Veras lost his arbitration case. He will make $2 million in 2012 instead of the $2.375 million he sought in arbitration.
Analysis: Veras arrived in Milwaukee in December as part of the Casey McGehee trade with the Pirates. Veras went 2-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings for Pittsburgh last season. He won't be a closer with the Brewers and will work in middle relief. Veras is merely a low-end Fantasy RP.

Dillon Gee
Gee prepping for the long haul
Dillon Gee, SP, NYM
11:33 AM
News: Newsday reports Mets SP Dillon Gee is focusing on finishing out the 2012 season after he struggled in the second half in 2011. Gee admitted fatigue played a part in his ERA rising to 5.25 after the All-Star break. He had a 3.76 ERA in the first half. "As the months went on, my stuff just got kind of bland," Gee said. "I feel that comes from fatigue. As soon as your legs get tired, you start overcompensating one way or the other, maybe relaxing a little bit. That throws off your release point, and in the end, the movement on your pitches. Earlier in the year, when I was fresh, you could see a big difference in the video that I watched."
Analysis: Gee said he is looking "for nothing but improvement" in 2012. He clearly has figured out what his biggest hurdle is to make sure he has a successful campaign. "I've had bouts of inconsistency where I jumped a level because it's a different thing you never experienced," Gee said. "My first full year in the big leagues was a long season for me. I wasn't used to that. It's only a month longer than minor leagues, but mentally, it's challenging. Every start, you have to focus so much harder, and that drains you. So I think learning how to deal with that and knowing what to expect this next year." Gee finished 2011 with 13 wins, but it could be a little tougher for victories this season as the Mets aren't the same star-filled team they used to be. Gee is merely a late-round Fantasy flier.

Josh Beckett
Beckett throws with skipper watching
Josh Beckett, SP, BOS
11:26 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox SP Josh Beckett threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session Tuesday as new manager Bobby Valentine watched.
Analysis: After a disastrous 2010, Beckett stayed healthy for the most part in 2011 and was able to get back on track. He made 30 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA. He also had a 13-7 record and 1.03 WHIP. Beckett has had less than 10 wins in just one of his last seven seasons. The biggest risk with drafting Beckett is durability. But if he is healthy, then he can post big numbers. Look to Beckett in the early rounds on Draft Day.

Kelvin De La Cruz
Indians DFA pitcher Cruz
Kelvin De La Cruz, SP, CLE
11:20 AM
News: The Indians designated for assignment pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz on Tuesday.
Analysis: Cruz has yet to make his MLB debut, but he is 32-28 with a 4.21 ERA in six minor-league seasons. He is merely organizational depth and can be ignored in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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