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Eric Mack

Draft preview: Pittsburgh Pirates outlook

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Team-by-team outlooks

It's the Pirates. If you're looking for Fantasy gems here, you're obviously new to this game.

Yes, Zach Duke is a third-year starting pitcher breakout candidate and Jason Bay would be a future MVP if he played for a team in a bigger market, but the Pirates traditionally manage to make a mess of good things.

Example 1: Remember the disappointment after snagging promising young arms Duke and Paul Maholm last spring? Coming off their late run(s) in 2005, they cost a pretty penny last March in Fantasy -- only to produce pretty much nothing for most of the season.

Example 2: Manager Jim Tracy says punchless shortstop Jack Wilson is his No. 2 hitter when reigning NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez profiles as an ideal two-man. Wilson should take his struggling-to-get-on-base act to the eight-hole, not near the top of everything. Also, Bay should be hitting third, not cleanup, which would give him at least 75 more plate appearances over the course of a season. Batting even one spot lower can cost Bay as many as six homers, 20 RBI and 20 runs.

Example 3: The trade for Adam LaRoche adds pop to the lineup and potentially (finally) protects Bay, but then Tracy comes out and says LaRoche might not bat behind Bay after all. He said he could split them up. Go figure.

Lineup-wise, we see them coming to their senses. But historically speaking (the past decade plus of the Fantasy generation), Pirates are like a four-letter word to Fantasy owners.

Spring position battles

Third/second base -- Jose Bautista vs. Jose Castillo

This is a 3-for-2 battle with Sanchez starting full time at third or second, depending on who the Pirates want in the other spot. Bautista has more power potential -- good enough to carry him as a third baseman -- while Castillo has decent run-production potential for the second-base position. Sanchez will be picked up in many mixed leagues in the middle rounds because of his 2006 average and versatility, but we're warning you right now he's a potential Bill Mueller bust. He won a battling title, too, and wound up being relatively worthless Fantasy-wise the next season. Sanchez is a similar case because of his lack of power (at least as far as a prototype 3B goes) and he will have to hit .340 just to be worth what you're going to have to pay to get him on Draft Day. With that said, Sanchez is far more of a mixed-league viable player than either Bautista or Castillo. Consider them NL-only sleepers, depending on who wins the job. Going in, we have to give it to the incumbent, Castillo.

Starting pitcher Nos. 4-5 -- Tony Armas and Tom Gorzelanny vs. Shawn Chacon, Yoslan Herrera, Sean Burnett, Shane Youman

Armas (shoulder) is in, if healthy, leaving the last spot to the talented young left Gorzelanny, an unproven Cuban import in Herrera and a couple of older guys in Burnett and Youman. Burnett was once intriguing as a long-term keeper, but his so-so success in Triple-A and 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate limits his potential now. Starting a back-end guy from the lowly Pirates -- heck, sometimes even their front-end guys -- will not be good for your Fantasy team. Avoid them at all costs in most leagues.

Closer -- Salomon Torres vs. Matt Capps, John Grabow, Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss and Josh Sharpless

This job should be all Torres' -- at least initially. Capps, Bayliss and Sharpless are long-term keeper options for their potential to be a closer down the road, while Grabow and Marte are more situational lefties. Whoever the Pirates closer is, he will be nothing more than a fill-in closer in Fantasy leagues. Mike Gonzalez was perfect last season -- yet saved only 23 games. None of these guys will come close to perfect.

Pittsburgh Pirates Outlook
Projected lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Chris Duffy CF 1 Zach Duke LH
2 Jack Wilson SS 2 Ian Snell RH
3 Freddy Sanchez 3B 3 Paul Maholm LH
4 Jason Bay LF 4 Tony Armas RH
5 Adam LaRoche 1B 5 Tom Gorzelanny LH
6 Xavier Nady RF Alt Shawn Chacon RH
7 Ronny Paulino C Top bullpen arms
8 Jose Castillo 2B CL Salomon Torres RH
Top bench options SU Matt Capps RH
R Jose Bautista 3B/OF RP John Grabow LH
R Ryan Doumit 1B/OF RP Damaso Marte LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2006 high Destination
1 Andrew McCutchen 20 CF Double-A Double-A
Similar to Lastings Milledge: Could arrive quickly but blossom later
2 Neil Walker 21 C Double-A Double-A
Injury-plagued year and Ronny Paulino's arrival slow him up
3 Josh Sharpless 26 RH RP Majors Majors
There is some closer potential here, but will have to wait on it
4 Rajai Davis 27 OF Majors Triple-A
Projects as a reserve, but steals speed might help in NL-only
5 Yoslan Herrera 25 RH SP DNP (Cuba) Triple-A
Cuban import has starter potential, but needs time in minors
Best of the rest: LHP Shane Youman, 27; RHP Jonah Bayliss, 26; SS Brian Bixler, 24; RHP Todd Redmond, 21; RHP John Van Benschoten, 26; RHP Bryan Bullington, 26; RHP Brad Lincoln, 21; LHP Josh Shortslef, 25; 1B Steven Pearce, 23; OF Brad Corley, 23; LHP Mike Felix, 21.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Pirates outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kyle Seager
Seager gets work at first base
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
1:25 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners 3B Kyle Seager took grounders at first base Tuesday. Manager Eric Wedge said it was because of pitcher fielding drills Seager was at first base.
Analysis: It's interesting to see Seager working at another position in camp with Wedge calling him the front-runner for the third-base job. However, it appears clear that Seager was just needed as an extra body during fielding drills. Justin Smoak is still the team's first baseman and Mike Carp is his expected backup. Carlos Guillen can also play first base, so we can't look too much into Seager taking grounders at first. His main focus should be winning the 3B job over the likes of Alex Liddi and Chone Figgins. Consider Seager nothing more than a late-round, low-end Fantasy corner infielder on Draft Day. He does have some sleeper potential, but don't reach for him in drafts.

Travis Hafner
Hafner on Yankees radar?
Travis Hafner, DH, CLE
1:19 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports the Indians have inquired about Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, who has been heavily involved in trade rumors. The talks with the Indians revolve around a Burnett for DH Travis Hafner deal. However, Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade, and the Yankees also appear content with the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: This trade rumor is definitely interesting because a trade to the Yankees would immediately elevate Hafner's Fantasy appeal. He would end up going to a hitter's park and be inserted into one of the best lineups in baseball. That means a ton of chances to fill the stat sheet. However, it doesn't appear this deal is imminent, so Fantasy owners shouldn't get their hopes up. It's best to view Hafner as a low-end, injury-risk Fantasy option for the late rounds of deep formats on Draft Day. Hafner continues to post poor home run totals and hasn't played more than 100 games in three of his last four seasons.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season. "Kosuke adds to our outfield depth and gives Robin (Ventura) another left-handed bat to mix into the lineup based on matchups," assistant general manager Rick Hahn said in a statement. "He can play center field and right and provides flexibility to our roster."
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

 
 
 
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