Derrick Rose was the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, but that doesn't mean he's destined for Fantasy stardom.
He might not even start for your Fantasy team right away.
Rose is expected to compete with Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon for playing time in Chicago. You can count on Rose seeing plenty of minutes, but his stats might not be that impressive this year.
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Kirk Hinrich's already plummeting stock took a huge hit on draft night.
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While some point guards enter the NBA and make a splash as a rookie, others take time to develop.
Chris Paul was a Fantasy darling in his first year when he averaged 16.1 points, 7.8 assists and 5.1 rebounds.
Deron Williams, on the other hand, took time to develop and only averaged 10.8 points, 4.5 assists and 2.4 rebounds as a rookie.
You'll still want to draft Rose high in all Fantasy leagues this year because of his potential. As a freshman at Memphis he averaged 14.7 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds and went to the NCAA title game.
But don't be surprised if he ends up as a Fantasy reserve for most of the season. Like Williams, Rose should eventually shine. And if the Bulls trade Hinrich or Gordon, his potential could accelerate to promise early on.
For now, though, temper your expectations and realize Rose will bloom down the road. He will finish as one of the top rookies in 2008-09, just not the best when it comes to Fantasy production.
Here is a list of five rookies who will make a Fantasy impact during their first season in the NBA.
Michael Beasley : The Heat drafted Beasley with the No. 2 overall selection, and he has the chance to produce right away. Beasley was a statistical monster at Kansas State, averaging 26.2 points and 12.4 rebounds. He could be undersized at power forward and not athletic enough at small forward, but he knows how to fill up a stat sheet. Go into a Fantasy draft with Beasley as a No. 3 option with the chance to improve early in the year.
O.J. Mayo : Mayo was drafted by Minnesota and traded to Memphis, which is a good move for his Fantasy value. The Grizzlies will put Mayo at shooting guard and allow him to run the floor with Rudy Gay and Mike Conley. Mayo, who can also play point guard, is better suited at shooting guard. He averaged 20.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists at USC. Look for him to get his points as a rookie and contribute right away for your Fantasy team.
Kevin Love : Love would have suffered if he stayed in Memphis instead of being traded for Mayo to Minnesota. Now he will pair with center Al Jefferson in the frontcourt, and Love should do well on the high block. He is a good perimeter shooter at power forward and will work well in tandem with Jefferson. Last year as a freshman at UCLA, Love averaged 17.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists, although his passing is better than the stats indicate. Consider Love a No. 3 Fantasy forward going into the season.
Eric Gordon : The Clippers drafted Gordon at No. 7 overall, and he should start right away at either guard spot. If Shaun Livingston (knee) is still slow in his recovery, Gordon can play point guard. If Livingston is able to go, then Gordon can start at shooting guard, which is probably his more natural spot. Gordon has the chance to be on an underrated team if Corey Maggette returns, with Elton Brand back from injury and Al Thornton a standout rookie last year. Gordon will feed off those players and turn into a quality No. 3 Fantasy guard.
Jerryd Bayless : Had Bayless stayed in Indiana, which is where he was drafted, his Fantasy value would be muted. But the trade to Portland allows Bayless to become an instant Fantasy star. He will share the backcourt with Brandon Roy and can feed the post to Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Blazers will be an improved team in 2008-09, and Bayless gets to run the show at point guard. He is a must have as a No. 3 Fantasy guard.
Five veterans hurt by the draft
Kirk Hinrich : The Bulls took Derrick Rose since he was the best player available, but that means bad things for Hinrich and possibly Ben Gordon as well. Hinrich, who had a terrible year in 2007-08, could still start alongside Rose, but his production will continue to sag. Hinrich used to be on the cusp of a No. 2 Fantasy guard, but he might have fallen to a No. 4 option following the draft.
Raymond Felton : The Bobcats made it clear Felton could be on the bench when they drafted D.J. Augustin with the No. 9 overall pick. Felton has failed to develop into an elite point guard, especially since he was in the same draft class as Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Felton has gone from a No. 3 Fantasy guard to a No. 4 option at best if Augustin comes in and takes his job.
Udonis Haslem : Haslem could see some time at center with the Heat drafting Michael Beasley at No. 2 overall and Shawn Marion deciding to stay in Miami. But if the Heat goes with a more natural lineup, Haslem is on the bench with Beasley and Marion getting the most playing time. Haslem has always been a solid source of points and rebounds, but his stats will decrease following the draft unless he gets time at center.
Jeff Green : The Sonics spent their first-round pick on Russell Westbrook, who is listed as a point guard but is more of a combo guard. If Westbrook plays point guard, then Green will be fine. But Westbrook will likely see time at shooting guard, meaning Green will come off the bench. Green started to show flashes toward the end of his rookie season, but this move could stunt his development and hurt his Fantasy value.
Jamaal Tinsley : Tinsley went from the starting point guard in Indiana to possibly third on the depth chart following two trades involved with the draft. The Pacers added T.J. Ford in a trade for Jermaine O'Neal and Jarrett Jack in the trade for Jerryd Bayless. Tinsley, when healthy, has always been a starting Fantasy guard. But now he could either be traded or see plenty of time on the bench. His Fantasy value was significantly lowered following the draft.
