What makes an NBA player take his game to the next level? Each season there are a select group of players who mature their games from those of everyday contributors to borderline stardom and beyond.
How does this phenomenon occur? That is not for us to ask. We don't need to focus on the why or the how. The who, that is what Fantasy owners crave.
Before throwing names at you like hurling bean bags at the carnival dunk tank, we must first concern ourselves with what exactly constitutes a "breakout" season. We define a breakout candidate as a player who has always been Fantasy viable but is now ready to be centerpiece of your lineup week in and week out. These are guys who have put impacting dings and scratches on the exterior of Fantasy rosters but will now cause insurance information to be exchanged. A player who may be on your draft board, but will give you more production than you dreamed possible.
Last season names like Deron Williams, Hedo Turkoglu and Mike Dunleavy were among the most noticeable now-stars who injected life into their Fantasy values. So, without further delay, here is a list of 10 potential breakout players for 2008-09:
Andrew Bogut, C, Milwaukee: The big, goofy Australian 7-footer plays one of the tougher positions in which to find production and that makes his Fantasy value high immediately. He's grown exponentially in scoring and rebounding and especially blocked shots over his first three seasons in the league and finished last year with 14.3 points, 9.8 boards and 1.7 blocks per game. Those numbers alone make him a No. 1 center, but at just 24 years of age, Bogut is still learning the ropes. If his improvement after the All-Star Break tells us anything -- he averaged 16.3 points and 11.6 rebounds in the second half -- Bogut is primed to join the level of other stud NBA centers like Yao Ming and Dwight Howard.
|
|
| Jose Calderon should benefit from a sharp increase in playing time. (Getty Images) |
Jamal Crawford, G, New York: Crawford is entering his fifth season with the Knicks and his ninth season overall, but as a 28-year-old can he really be considered a breakout candidate? Absolutely. Here's what we know: The Knicks have a new coach in Mike D'Antoni and if his years in Phoenix tell any tales it's that he enjoys a good triple-digit final score. There is no doubt the Knicks will look to score in bunches and with ball hog Stephon Marbury out of the equation, somebody has to shoot. There isn't a spot on the offensive side of halfcourt that Crawford won't launch one from. He averaged career highs in points and assists last season with 20.6 and 5.0, respectively, and if the Knicks are going to improve, so to will Crawford. Expect more career highs to be had in 2008-09 for the former Michigan star.
Kevin Durant, G/F, Oklahoma City: Remember this guy? It wasn't too long ago that Durant was featured on every highlight video across the country as a member of the Texas Longhorns, just two years ago to be exact. If you couldn't tell, Durant was playing his first NBA season all the way up there in the Pacific Northwest and all he did was score 20 points a game en route to picking up Rookie of the Year honors. More centrally located for his sophomore season in Oklahoma City, Durant will once again be all over the highlight reel in 2008-09. More than 20 points per game is a given. Thirty is a stretch but surely not possible. On a team like the insert-name-here's, Durant will be the first, second and third scoring options, and will continue to develop his all-around game. It isn't common for a second-year player to be considered for a breakout year, but Durant is an extraordinary talent. It won't be long until he's a first-round pick in every Fantasy draft.
Monta Ellis, G, Golden State: The 22-year-old drafted in the second round in 2005 straight out of high school has already had one breakout season after his rookie year when he went from 6.8 points per game to 16.5. Last year, his third season with the Warriors, he averaged career bests of 20.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.53 steals in 37.9 minutes and 81 games. So why should someone who has already registered great stats and been a breakout player be considered one again? Simple, as the new starting point guard because of Baron Davis' departure, Ellis stands to inherit an even bigger role in coach Don Nelson's up-tempo offense. If his numbers from last season make you happy, increase each stat slightly and then realize you will be drafting a 2008-09 All-Star.
Randy Foye, G, Minnesota: If you followed Villanova during their NCAA tournament run in 2005-06, you know Foye has the ability to put up big offensive numbers. In his rookie season with Minnesota, Foye averaged over 10 points in 82 games. Last season he was hampered by a nagging ankle injury that limited him to 39 games but finished the season strong and averaged 14.3 points, 4.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds as a starter. The most telling stats, however, were the numbers he dropped in April when he poured in over 18 points a night. He's got a starting gig and will be one of the team's primary scorers. In his third season, a healthy Foye could be a major Fantasy sleeper. Foye should increase his statistics across the board but it will be his scoring average where he breaks out. There is no doubt that Foye will average over 20 points per game for a long time in this league and his first season with those numbers could very well come in 2008-09.
Al Horford, F/C, Atlanta: It just goes to show how good the rookie class of 2007-08 was that two members are primed for breakout seasons in their sophomore campaigns. Horford averaged over 10 points and just under 10 rebounds per game last year for the Hawks through 81 games. He'll be Atlanta's rock inside and with Mike Bibby in Atlanta it could mean greater inside touches for the former two-time NCAA national champion. Horford will most definitely improve upon last season's numbers. An increase of five or more points per game isn't out of the question. He'll go into the season as a No. 2-ranked Fantasy center largely because of a lack of depth at the position, but by the time April rolls around, Horford could be firmly imbedded among the elite Fantasy big men in the league. It isn't a question of if Horford will break out, but when? And as they say, there is no time like the present.
John Salmons, F, Sacramento: When you look up breakout candidate in the 2008-09 version of the NBA dictionary, Salmons' toothy grin should be staring back at you. Salmons owns career averages of 7.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists over six seasons in the league. The bench has been his home for most of his career with the Sixers and Kings but he did see 41 starts last season. He averaged 17.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists in those games. That also included just under a three-pointer per game, a 49.7 field-goal percentage and 1.6 steals. Get that man in the starting lineup. The Kings finally will with Ron Artest in Houston. If his stats in 2008-09 resemble what he did as a starter last year he'd be a breakout candidate, but we think the former Hurricane could be even better.
Al Thornton, F, Los Angeles Clippers: The State of Florida representing breakout players. We've already had a Gator (Horford) and a Hurricane (Salmons), so why not a Seminole? Thornton is another sophomore who put up big scoring numbers in his rookie season with the Clips. He finished second to Durant in rookie scoring with 12.7 points per game and averaged 15.6 point to go with 6.1 rebounds and almost two assists in 31 games as a starter. With Elton Brand gone, you can expect 30-35 minutes per game from Thornton, regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench. One of the better Fantasy keepers, Thornton will go during the middle rounds of most drafts and will make whoever selects him very happy.
Hakim Warrick, F, Memphis: At quick glance, Warrick might appear more ready to be considered a Fantasy bust than a breakout. After all, his averages went down in nearly every category last season, his third in the NBA. Look closer, however, and you'll find that Warrick had breakout written all over him. Memphis still has a Gasol on its roster, but Marc won't pose the same threat to Warrick's playing time that Pau did. Once Pau bolted to L.A., Warrick went nuts. Pre-Pau leaving, Warrick was averaging around 7.5 points and 3.0 rebounds. Post-Pau those numbers went all the way up to 15.7 and 7.0. The starting job in 2008-09 is all Warrick's and as his game develops so will his numbers. Warrick could be the steal of the breakouts because he's projected as a No. 4 option who could actually put up No. 2-type numbers.
Do you have a draft prep question or comment for our staff of Fantasy writers? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyBasketball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
