There are few things more important to winning a Fantasy championship than uncovering the best values on Draft Day. Call it whatever you'd like, the hidden gems, the nuggets, the bargains. But there's only one word that makes a Fantasy owner tingle in that special kind of way.
Sleepers.
Fantasy owners want to know who they are, how to find them and how to get the other owners in their league to overlook them. This concept applies in all Fantasy sports, but in Fantasy hoops the slightest changes can turn a dud into a stud. Trades, free agent moves, coaching changes and other factors have an impact on the amount of minutes players up and down an NBA roster will see in a given season and therefore leading to more shot attempts, rebounds, blocks, steals and so on. The offseason is full of such changes, planting the possibility for new players to rise into Fantasy significance.
When talking sleepers, it's important to denote the difference between them and the breakouts. Breakouts are players who have already made the jump into Fantasy relevance from relative obscurity and have reached the elite level of Fantasy production with a substantial statistical boom. Breakouts are next year's upper tier Fantasy options.
Sleepers are different.
For the most part, they are the infants of the Fantasy world, learning how to crawl before they can walk. Or in some cases, the toddlers that learn how to walk before they can run. They can also be the guy going through a mid-life crisis that gets a new car and is suddenly his old self again. Or the Fantasy writer who uses one too many metaphors.
Enough of all that, here's what you really want, the top sleeper options heading into the 2007-08 regular season:
Mike Conley, G, Memphis: With Juan Carlos Navarro going back to Spain, the path is cleared for the second-year player out of Ohio State to have a big year. Conley was brought along slowly in Memphis and a big part of the reason was Navarro's presence and emergence as a valuable guard for the Griz. Another reason was the 29 games he missed due to shoulder and rib injuries. Memphis worked him out this summer in the Las Vegas summer league and he's coming into the season as the team's primary point guard. Expect more minutes and therefore more production from him in his sophomore season.
Chris Duhon, G, New York: Don't laugh. Duhon actually has a few things going for him now in a new situation in New York. For one thing, he's got a chance to start. Granted, that hasn't always meant automatic production for Duhon. He got a chance to start for the Bulls last season but averaged just 6.5 points in those games and had to be replaced. However, he did manage 5.7 assists in those 18 games and now could be running the show for Mike D'Antoni, an offensive mastermind who turned Steve Nash from a solid NBA guard into an NBA MVP. Don't expect the same kind of transition for Duhon, however, but the potential is there for a serious rise in his overall production, hence the sleeper vote.
Rudy Fernandez, G, Portland: In the mold of Jose Calderon and Juan Carlos Navarro, Fernandez is a Spanish guard coming over ready to contribute. Plug him in and see what he can do, that's what the Blazers are going to do this season. Fernandez has played the last seven seasons for DKV Joventut Badalona of the Spanish ACB League, widely considered to be the most competitive in Europe. There, he averaged 21.2 points, 4.1 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 2.2 steals last season, leading his team to two titles in one year (ULEB Cup and Copa Del Rey). Even Michael Jordan couldn't win two NBA titles in one year. Fernandez may not start on opening night. He may not even start 25 games this season, but the Blazers will surely find him around 30 minutes to give them a boost in scoring to take some of the load off Brandon Roy in the backcourt. He's a good enough passer that he could become the team's regular point guard at some point. There is real value here. Fernandez could end up being the steal of Fantasy drafts this season.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis: Here's another Spaniard ready to make an impact in his first year in the NBA. Pau’s younger brother will get a chance to follow in his footsteps in the same city where Pau grew into an NBA star. The Lakers drafted him in the second round in 2007, but never played a game for Los Angeles as he continued to play in Spain, where he's spent each of the past five seasons. He was named the MVP of the ACB League in Spain last year after averaging 16.2 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks for Akasvayu Girona. He'll get a chance to play in Memphis and while it's unlikely he'll repeat that kind of production in his first NBA season, he could be in line for low-end double digit scoring and solid rebound and block totals that would make him a No. 2 center in most leagues. That's not bad for a player that will be available late in drafts.
Francisco Garcia, F, Kings: With Ron Artest now in Houston, Garcia will get a big spike in playing time. He showed last year what he can do when given the chance to play, averaging 16.4 points in 20 games as a starter. John Salmons should be in for a breakout year in Sacramento as a result, but Garcia will go under the radar as another player who will benefit from the added playing time. He offers double-digit scoring, high shooting percentages and at least a three-pointer and a steal per game.
Yi Jianlian, F, New Jersey: Yi was the Nets' primary return in the Richard Jefferson deal, so they'll certainly be looking to feature him prominently in his second NBA season. He was a disappointment in Milwaukee, but was also a bad fit on that team in more ways than one. Not only was he not happy with playing in a small market in Milwaukee without much of an Asian fan base, but the Grizzlies were also trying to make him a back-to-the-basket big man, something he is not. The Nets will use him on the post, but much like Nenad Krstic developed as a spot-up shooting seven-footer in New Jersey, Yi will have the chance to do the same. He's more comfortable shooting from the outside facing the rim and New Jersey could end up using him as a small forward, a role that better suits his skills. Yi's poor rookie season will make him available in the late rounds in most Fantasy formats, which could be a real steal for a player who should average double digits in scoring and more than five rebounds per game.
Kenyon Martin, F, Nuggets: K-Mart is an oldie, but he can be a goodie for Fantasy owners this season. With Marcus Camby no longer in Denver, the Nuggets severely lack a low post presence and Martin is the logical choice to step up. Nene is currently penciled in as the team's starting center, but he's not expected to be an impact player. K-Mart was a Fantasy stud in New Jersey, but injuries and lack of a prominent role in Denver limited his appeal since he was traded back in 2004. Last year, however, he played 71 games and proved he could be trusted again in a resurgent season in which he average 12.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks. Expect each of those figures to rise.
Mickael Pietrus, F, Orlando: Pietrus fell out of the mix in Golden State, but he'll head to Orlando this season and will instantly become a starter at shooting guard. He started 16 games last year for Golden State (15 at small forward and one at center), so it will take him five games to pick up center eligibility in commissioner leagues that allow dual eligibility. But he'll carry guard/forward eligibility for the majority of the season and will be a nice source for three-point shooting to go with double-digit scoring, a few rebounds and an assist or so per game. He'll be an afterthought in most drafts, but is a good value.
Rodney Stuckey, G, Detroit: He really came on in the second half of last season, averaging 9.2 points, 3.1 assists and 2.8 rebounds in 30 games after the All-Star break. And that came with just 21.4 minutes of playing time while backing up Chauncey Billups. As an example of what Stuckey could offer with more playing time, consider that he averaged 14.0 points, 4.2 assists and 3.3 rebounds in nine April games while seeing 27.3 minutes per game. The Pistons are in the midst of shaking up their rotation and there has even been talk of shipping Billups out in the offseason. Billups could be traded by the trade deadline this season, but Stuckey will see more of a commitment to his development this season even if there is no trade.
Marcus Williams, G, Warriors: This one is still a little bit of a work in progress, but the potential for a big improvement is there for Williams. He'll have to win a starting job and that could happen in the preseason or in the early part of the regular season. The talent is certainly there. He's a capable scorer who would easily average double figures if Don Nelson decides to use him -- and not natural shooting guard Monta Ellis -- as his replacement at the point for Baron Davis. He didn't get much of a chance in New Jersey, but did get seven starts last season. He averaged 11.1 points, 6.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds in those games. Fantasy owners should keep an eye on his preseason.
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