All of a sudden, this year's Philadelphia 76ers look a lot like they did last year after Elton Brand went down with a shoulder injury that will keep him out for at least the next month. Fantasy owners should take a closer look at the 2007-08 Sixers to get an idea of what's going to happen with this year's crop over the next four weeks or so.
The Sixers will need to replace the 15.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game they'd been getting from Brand. They are likely to fill that void in a variety of ways and Fantasy owners can look to the Sixers like someone picking apart a junkyard car for spare parts.
The scoring should come mostly from Thaddeus Young. The second-year forward out of Georgia Tech has the best offensive upside among the team's forward options and has shown some flashes of being a solid scorer already this season. He averaged 15.1 points in November, but has frustated Fantasy owners with inconsistency. Now, with Brand out of the picture, the Sixers will have to run more of the offense through Young, who should see double-digit shot attempts on a regular basis which will in turn lead to steadier numbers. They won't be running as many half-court sets exclusively for Young the way they have for Brand, but Young's touches certainly stand to go up by a significant amount.
Last season, the Sixers relied upon Lou Williams and Willie Green to provide complementary scoring. They will need more of that over the course of the next month. Williams showed how helpful he can be in that regard on Wednesday when he scored 25 points on 9-for-17 shooting from the field. Even before Brand went down, he had been on an impressive run with at least 13 points in his previous five games. He should see more offensive looks now as the team tries to squeeze offense out of wherever possible and Williams is the man with the hot hand at the moment.
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Samuel Dalembert should find more room to operate with Elton Brand sidelined.
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Green has also shown some signs of productivity lately with 19 points on Dec. 12 at Cleveland and 13 the next game against Washington. His minutes and shot attempts off the bench should increase and while Williams is the better option of the two, Green can have some appeal in larger formats if he were to continue his recent trend. He has attempted 10 or more field goals in two of his last three games and should see a trickle-down effect in terms of his overall production.
The bulk of the rebounding benefits will go to center Samuel Dalembert. He has endured a very unproductive beginning to the season playing alongside Brand. He averaged 10.5 points and 10.3 rebounds in a career season a year ago, but is averaging just 5.8 points and 8.4 rebounds this season. The boards could easily rise to around 10 per game now with Brand not around. He should also see an increase in playing time. His minutes have been down around 25 per game this season after he averaged 33 last year. That will lead to more shot attempts, which will lead to more points and it will also give him a chance for more blocks -- a specialty of his. Many Fantasy owners have abandoned him due to his slow start, but his value over the next month could be that of a useful No. 2 center.
Rookie Marreese Speights and Reggie Evans should get a chance for more minutes at the power forward spot, although the Sixers can play Young there if they choose to go small and play a quicker-tempo offensively. Last season, Evans averaged 8.1 rebounds in 61 games as the starting power forward. He averaged just 5.4 points, though and will only be worth adding in larger category-based formats for cheap help in rebounding. Although the presence of Speights could limit him even in that regard.
In case you didn't notice ... Monta Ellis was removed from the suspended players list by the Warriors on Thursday after he served the 30th game of his team-imposed suspension. Whenever he feels healthy enough to play, he can. Ellis has been practicing, although in a limited capacity, and could return as soon as Dec. 26 against Boston. He is coming off a major ankle injury and could take some time to get back to 100 percent, but this is a player who averaged 20.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists last season. He should be owned in more than 64 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.
Add 'Em
J.R. Smith, G, Nuggets
Owned: 67 percent of leagues
Analysis: Smith is averaging 16.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists over his last five games, scoring no less than 15 points over his last three. Still, he sits atop the waiver wire list when sorting through the guard position in most Fantasy leagues. With the Nuggets slated for four games in the upcoming scoring period -- a week with many teams playing abbreviated schedules due to the holidays, he's the logical choice to add.
Jamario Moon, F, Raptors
Owned: 39 percent of leagues
Analysis: Moon has regained his starting job after briefly losing it to Andrea Bargnani and is putting up numbers worthy of keeping his slot for a while. He has just missed double-doubles in each of his last five games, averaging 11.0 points and 8.6 rebounds in that span and is starting to show some of the flashes of raw athletic talent that made him so appealing as a stopgap in Fantasy a year ago. As long as he continues to get around 30 minutes per game, he should be able to be productive enough to use as a low-end starter. Anyone looking for a fill in off the wire should look no further if he's available.
Matt Bonner, C, Spurs
Owned: 38 percent of leagues
Analysis: Odds are that Anderson Varejao was swiped off the waiver wire in your league as soon as Zydrunas Ilgauskas hurt his ankle. On top of that, Big Z has returned to practice and could be back this week. That leaves the underrated Bonner as the best option off the waiver wire for anyone looking for a center in most Fantasy leagues. This is more of a utilitarian recommendation compared to most. He isn't producing jaw-dropping numbers and is not all of a sudden in a better situation than he was yesterday or even last week. However, he is the steadiest option among Fantasy centers that are available in most leagues off the wire and is the only one who can offer decent scoring, rebounding and even three-point shooting. He had seven points and seven rebounds Wednesday in what was an "off" game for him the way he has been playing lately as the now unquestioned starter at center for the Spurs. Expect him to be around 10 points and eight or so rebounds per game when getting his full alottment of 30-plus minutes.
Avoid' Em
Jarrett Jack, G, Pacers
Owned: 15 percent of leagues
Analysis: With T.J. Ford going down for an undetermined amount of time, it looks like a great idea to add his backup off the wire -- especially after he produced a fluky 24-6-2 line on Wednesday night. Ford suffered a groin injury, which should keep him out for at least a few games. However, Fantasy owners in cumulative scoring formats should keep in mind that the Pacers have just three games in each of the next two scoring periods and Jack is the type of player who is better saved for four-game scoring periods.
Marcin Gortat, F, Magic
Owned: 5 percent of leagues
Analysis: Gortat saw a five percent increase in ownership following his 16-point, 13-rebound effort at the Warriors Monday. However, that came with Dwight Howard out of the lineup and against a Warriors team that gives up the most points and rebounds in the NBA. Good luck seeing that performance out of him on a consistent basis. He is not going to see 13 shots in a game, like he did Monday, very often.
Stash 'Em
Marco Belinelli, G, Warriors
Owned: 16 percent of leagues
Analysis: He's the latest Warrior to catch everyone's eye with some solid numbers over the last two weeks. He is averaging 15.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists over his last five games and is also a great outside threat with multiple threes in his last three games. That includes five treys Wednesday at the Pacers. The trick here is that the Warriors rotation is very erratic under head coach Don Nelson and Monta Ellis is very close to a return. That means Fantasy owners should not invest too much for him off the wire considering his surge could be short-lived. Stashing him in the hopes that this isn't just temporary is not a bad idea, though, at the right price. In other words, don't go cutting a player like Mike Dunleavy -- who has been useless to date, but has better long-term appeal at the moment -- for a player who at the moment is just a flash in the pan.
Andres Nocioni, F, Bulls
Owned: 21 percent of leagues
Analysis: Nocioni has still got it. He just doesn't have the minutes to go with 'it' right now. He has played well this season when he's gotten extended run, like when he scored 22 points with four rebounds and three assists in 35 minutes Wednesday against the Clippers. The trouble is that the next game he will play 15 minutes and produce just a few points and rebounds. Fantasy owners should look to stash him if possible. An injury or a trade to another team could turn this sleeper into a solid No. 3 Fantasy forward. Monitor his minutes. When he gets them, he can still produce.
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