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Jeff Lippman

Stockwatch: High flyin' Hawks

By | Fantasy Writer

Way back in 2004-05 all the Atlanta Hawks and their fans wanted for Christmas was to field a team that wouldn't embarrass a city rich in basketball tradition. That team finished with just 13 wins. A few seasons and some solid draft choices later, Georgians were asking for the playoffs from their 15-13 team entering January. They got their wish.

Now, as the new year approaches with Christmas now an afterthought, some bold fans of Atlanta's 19-10 Hawks are wishing for a whole lot more than just making the playoffs. Some are thinking NBA title and the reasons are clear. As a team, the Hawks are flying high with superstar Joe Johnson leading the way. Individually, though, they are getting a boost from two places that is making all the difference.

Mike Bibby/Josh Smith, PG/SF, Atlanta
While Johnson continues to play like no ordinary Joe, Bibby and Smith are playing at a level above from what Fantasy owners have been expecting of late and could be the biggest reason the team is playing so well of late. Bibby is scoring per usual and assisting at a slightly greater pace over the current win streak, but it has been his rebounding that gives him an up arrow. Bibby rebounds at around 3.6 per game over the season but is over five lately. He's also hit 11 threes over his last three games and his percentages have been great. Smith is picking up his production across the board and he's really developing into a major Rotisserie weapon. Over his last five games, Smith is averaging 16.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, almost two steals and one block. He also hits a few threes. His scoring continues to rise and he's hit season highs in back-to-back games with 19 points followed by 24 on Saturday. With both players playing well and the Johnson his normal self, it is no wonder why Atlanta is sitting with the No. 4 seed in the East and rising.
Tracy McGrady, SG, Houston
T-Mac's stock report reads like a failed lie detector test and the valleys may be more prevalent than the peaks going forward. After returning, once again, from a seven-game absence because of soreness in his left knee, McGrady exploded with a near triple-double followed by an actual triple-double and looked like he could sustain that high level of play, if he could just stay healthy. But all it took was five solid games before that knee was giving him fits again. Since scoring 23 points at Minnesota four games ago, McGrady played 30 minutes in three games and averaged just nine points, three assists and four rebounds and was clearly bothered by the knee. In fact, the bothered him so much that he decided it didn't make sense to keep playing on and now he could miss another extended chunk of time. He's day to day but the Rockets might want to keep him healthy for a playoff run and choose to rest him until he's 100 percent. Of course, that may never happen again this season meaning he'll be an injury risk pretty much from here on out.
Jermaine O'Neal, PF/C, Toronto
The Raptors, the NBA and Fantasy owners everywhere had seemingly given up on O'Neal ever having a four-game span like the one he's currently on. There was so much positivity about his Fantasy prowess before the season as he became Toronto's center with Chris Bosh at the power forward spot. But O'Neal is only averaging 14 points and seven boards this season. Respectable numbers, but we'd hoped for more from the former All-Star. More is what he's giving us for the holidays as he's averaging 25 points and eight rebounds over his last four. He's also getting almost three blocks and is finally getting his field goal percentage back near 50 percent. Don't forget that he's even contributing steals. O'Neal is playing like an All-Star lately but owners need it for greater than a four-game period. Hopefully, O'Neal can keep this going over the rest of the year under new head coach Jay Triano and re-develop into the big-time Fantasy talent he once was.
Richard Jefferson, SF, Milwaukee
Not much is going right currently for the former New Jersey star in his new digs. Jefferson is averaging 17.6 points per game this season but has only scored above that plateau once in his last five games. Instead, RJ has had a few stinkers and is dropping just under 14 points over that span -- and that is with a 22-point effort thrown in. But Jefferson has also come in below his averages in rebounding by one full board per night and his field goal percentage has been under 40 percent. Jefferson has really been scuffling of late but we do expect him to turn it around. He's always been solid and it appears just an off shooting touch is the only thing bothering him right now. He remains someone to use at all times in Fantasy but owners could really use that turnaround soon.
Gerald Wallace, SF, Charlotte
Wallace was always going to be a Rotisserie stud this season. We knew he'd have great sleeper potential. He's definitely woken up since the Bobcats dealt Jason Richardson to Phoenix, though, as he's become Charlotte's best scoring option, hands down. Wallace dropped 32 points, with 16 coming in the fourth quarter, on Saturday and is averaging 22.4 points over his last five games. He's also raised his season's rebounding and assist numbers and has connected on five of his 14 threes in the last five games. His shooting percentages are up as much as his numbers and the Bobcats are actually beginning to win. His confidence is rising as high as his numbers and that makes him a dangerously good Fantasy option heading into 2009.
Josh Howard, SF, Dallas
After averaging 20 points and seven rebounds last year, Howard was pegged as a major Rotisserie stud heading into this season. His season average of 17.9 points and 5.3 boards is slightly below those numbers but the Mavs have needed less of him with Jason Terry playing so well off the bench and Howard missed 11 games with an ankle sprain. All of that would be just fine and dandy and nobody would be concerned with the 15 points per game he's putting up over his last five if it weren't for the mysterious disappearance of his rebounding ability. Howard is pulling down 1.6 boards per over his last five and that number is almost five boards under his career average. Plus, he's getting less steals, assists and blocks than normal and his shooting percentage is just 41 percent. That ankle is still clearly giving him trouble and it might be causing a slight hesitation that is keeping him from crashing the boards. Howard's great Fantasy value was in the fact that he could contribute in all categories for your Fantasy team but right now he's only scoring and is not even doing that to the best of his ability.
Rashad McCants, SG, Minnesota
It is no coincidence that you can track the beginning of McCants' current hot streak to the game in which Mike Miller injured his ankle. Miller went down four games ago against Houston and McCants got his extra playing time and immediately scored 16 points, grabbed five boards and dished out four assists in 39 minutes -- all those numbers above his season averages. McCants only managed four points in 20 minutes in his next game but scored 23 points in 21 minutes at New York on Friday and earned extended playing time on Saturday against Orlando. McCants used that time to put up 21 points and he's now got 11 threes in his last two games. That kind of production shows he's quite useful under coach Kevin McHale's up-tempo style of play and with starter Kevin Ollie playing limited minutes Saturday, McCants could begin to get starts if Miller needs more time to heal. The T-Wolves do expect Miller back shortly but McCants should continue to get minutes off the bench because of the way he's been playing of late.
Trevor Ariza, SF, L.A. Lakers
People, by nature, are attracted to shiny objects regardless of actual value and that should be one theory as to why Ariza is still owned in 38 percent of Fantasy leagues. Ariza's game is certainly one played at an up-tempo above-the-rim pace and he's one of the game's most exciting players when he's on the court. That said, his Fantasy numbers leave a lot to be desired as he's averaging just nine points and almost five rebounds per game this season and outside of steals does little else of Fantasy significance. Ariza has been even worse than that lately -- 5.6 points and 3.8 boards over his past five games -- and he's really hardly worth owning in even deeper Fantasy leagues right now. He might be a sparkplug for the Lakers but Fantasy owners don't have any room for sparkplugs with mediocre stats on their rosters.
Tyson Chandler, PF, New Orleans
Chandler has been a major disappointment this season after averaging almost 12 points and 12 rebounds per night last year. His current averages of 8.8 points and 8.2 boards are making his Fantasy owners quite ornery. But wait, the signs are aligning for him to begin his turnaround and he has definitely showcased a slight improvement over his last five contests. Chandler is averaging 10 points and 9.2 boards over that span and he pulled down double digits in boards in three of them. He's also beginning to block more shots and this all proves that his re-commitment to playing tough basketball underneath the rim has paid off. Hopefully he continues to build off the last few solid efforts and goes into the New Year more like the man owners expected to have on their rosters. The Hornets have some very favorable matchups coming up and Chandler's stock is definitely on the rise again.
Rudy Fernandez, SG, Portland
We highly touted Fernandez this preseason for what he was able to accomplish in the Olympics for Spain and because we truly felt he'd be the type of guard who could end up starting and leading the Blazers. But with Steve Blake and the Blazers playing so well at the point and the fact that Fernandez still needs to grow his NBA game, Portland has had the luxury of bringing him along slowly. At this point in the season it is obvious that given playing time, Fernandez can light it up. Over his last five games, the two times he played over 20 minutes he scored in double figures in each. That said, he's still averaging just 8.6 points per over that span and doing little else but shoot threes worthy of Fantasy significance. The bottom line here is that until Fernandez can become a major part of the Trail Blazers rotation he'll be limited in his Fantasy appeal.

Do you have a Fantasy Basketball question or comment for our staff of Fantasy writers? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Kyrie Irving
Irving possible for Wednesday
Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE
2:47 PM
News: Cleveland G Kyrie Irving (concussion) participated in all non-contract drills during Monday's practice, but has yet to be cleared to return to game action, according to the Akron Beacon Journal. Irving has missed the past two games after being diagnosed with a concussion last Wednesday. With the Cavaliers' next game on Wednesday, he could be cleared for the outing with a positive showing in Tuesday's practice. "To me, he seems normal," Cleveland F Antawn Jamison said. "He's not going to be on the court unless he is 100 percent."
Analysis: Irving has now completed two straight days of light workouts as he continues to nurse his head injury. It appears he could be poised for a return on Wednesday, the first of only three games for Cleveland during Fantasy Week 8 (Feb. 13-19). Irving leads all rookies with 18.0 points per game this season and is also averaging 5.1 assists through 23 games. With his status still uncertain, he is a risky Fantasy option this scoring period.

Amar'e Stoudemire
Stoudemire shifts focus to court
Amar'e Stoudemire, PF, NY
12:09 PM
News: New York F Amar'e Stoudemire returned to practice Monday after spending the past week in Florida to mourn the death of his brother, according to Newsday. Stoudemire is expected to play in Tuesday's game at Toronto. "It feels good to be back on the basketball court," Stoudemire said. "I've been away for about a week now, so it feels good to be back." He is averaging 18.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game this season.
Analysis: Stoudemire returns to the team at an interesting time as G Jeremy Lin has created tremendous buzz with his sterling production while Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony have been sidelined. But Stoudemire could benefit from Lin's pick-and-roll ability and improve on his average of 7.0 field goals a game -- his lowest total since his rookie season (minimum 10 games). Consider Stoudemire a must-start in all Fantasy formats.

Nikola Pekovic
Pekovic stays at starting point
Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN
3:54 PM
News: According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Minnesota C Nikola Pekovic is expected to remain in the starting lineup when C Darko Milicic returns from an ankle injury. And Milicic is a supporter of the move. "He deserves to play," said Milicic, who is likely to return for Monday's game against Orlando. "He's playing in a great rhythm right now. I'm happy for him." Milicic has missed the Timberwolves' past four games.
Analysis: With Milicic sidelined, Pekovic has become a dominant scorer and provided Minnesota another strong low-post option with F Kevin Love. He is averaging 17.3 points and 9.8 rebounds over his past six games -- five of them with Milicic out -- while shooting a sterling 67.6 percent from the field. Fantasy owners should continue to add Pekovic in all formats and consider him a solid start heading into Week 8 (Feb. 13-19).

Anderson Varejao
Cavs awaiting word on Varejao
Anderson Varejao, C, CLE
3:27 PM
News: Cavaliers coach Byron Scott said the team is unlikely to have an update on injured C Anderson Varejao (wrist) until later this week, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Scott added he has not heard any discussion of Varejao having surgery after he suffered a broken wrist during Friday's game against Milwaukee. Varejao is sidelined indefinitely and C Semih Erden will start in his place Wednesday against Indiana.
Analysis: An MRI taken on Varejao's wrist revealed a non-displaced fracture, but the Cavaliers have yet to determine how long their starting center will be sidelined. The 29-year-old was enjoying a consistently productive season while averaging 10.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game -- both career highs. It seems like he will miss Cleveland's three games during Fantasy Week 8 (Feb. 13-19) and should be reserved in all formats for now.

Steve Nash
Nash enjoying Sun shine
Steve Nash, PG, PHO
3:14 PM
News: Phoenix general manager Lon Babby said the team not expecting to move G Steve Nash in a trade unless the veteran asks for one, according to SI.com. Nash is currently in his eighth season during his second stint with Phoenix, but the team is unlikely to compete for a playoff spot this year. "Our position has been the same all along, which is I've told him that he has earned the right to stay with our franchise as long as he wants provided that he believes in what we're doing, and provided that he's all in and wants to do that," Babby said.
Analysis: Despite turning 38 years old earlier this month, Nash continues to produce his typical robust numbers and is averaging 14.6 points and 10.3 assists per game. He also ranks third in the NBA in shooting percentage with a sterling 56.3 clip this season. "I didn't think I'd ever play this long, let alone feel as well," Nash told SI.com. "I sacrifice a lot, and I work hard to try to stay at a high level." With Nash continuously defying his age this year, Fantasy owners should continue to roll with him as a must-start in all formats for Week 8 (Feb. 13-19).

Darko Milicic
Milicic to return off bench
Darko Milicic, C, MIN
4:11 PM
News: Minnesota C Darko Milicic (ankle) is expected to return to the lineup for Monday's game at Orlando, but will serve in a new role. According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Milicic will play off the bench while Nikola Pekovic remains the Timberwolves' starting center. Pekovic has emerged as a strong low-post threat and is averaging 17.3 points and 9.8 rebounds over his past six games -- five of those outings have come with Milicic out.
Analysis: It appears Minnesota's patience with Milicic finally ran out. Milicic has dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness throughout his career, and was averaging just 5.6 points and 4.2 rebounds per game this season. The 26-year-old said he was content with his move to the bench. "(Pekovic) deserves to play," he said. "He's playing in a great rhythm right now. I'm happy for him." Fantasy owners weren't relying much on Milicic anyway this season and should continue to consider him an afterthought in the majority of formats for now.

Ben Wallace
Last hurrah for Wallace
Ben Wallace, C, DET
4:02 PM
News: After weeks of speculation, Detroit F Ben Wallace insists this is his last season -- without a doubt. Wallace, 37, said he is looking forward to spending time with his family following the 2011-12 campaign, his 16th season in the NBA. He is tied with Avery Johnson for the most games played by an undrafted player since the NBA-ABA merger, and Wallace can break that mark Tuesday night when the Pistons host San Antonio.
Analysis: Although he wasn’t drafted, Wallace carved out a niche for himself as a tough defender around the basket and a sensational rebounder. He is a four-time NBA defensive player of the year and helped the Pistons win the 2004 championship. However, Wallace is well past the glory from earlier in his career and is averaging just 3.4 rebounds and 1.0 point per game this season. He should be left untouched in all Fantasy formats for now.

Jared Dudley
Dudley building confidence
Jared Dudley, SF, PHO
3:41 PM
News: After matching a season high with 20 points in a win over Sacramento on Saturday night, Phoenix G Jared Dudley said he is finally starting to develop a scoring rhythm. Dudley connected on 8 of 13 attempts from the field and made three shots from 3-point range to finish with his highest scoring output since Jan. 28. "My legs have gotten under me now," Dudley told the Arizona Republic. "I'm more locked in. I'm more aggressive. I know where my shots are coming from. Coach is running a couple more plays for me. The guys look for me and give me the ball off the dribble more. My confidence is growing."
Analysis: Dudley's improvement since returning to the starting lineup eight games ago has also made an impression on his teammates. "He's feeling more confident and more comfortable," Suns guard Steve Nash said. "He's been more decisive. He's taking the ball into the paint and making plays." Dudley remains a steady contributor from long range and is shooting 54.5 percent (12 for 22) in six games during the month of February. Fantasy owners should consider him a rising option in most formats while he's playing at a high level.

Jerryd Bayless
Bayless could return Tuesday
Jerryd Bayless, PG, TOR
3:02 PM
News: Raptors G Jerryd Bayless (ankle) is considered a game-time decision for Tuesday's contest against New York, according to the Toronto Sun. Bayless has missed the past two games while dealing with an ankle injury he suffered last Wednesday against Milwaukee.
Analysis: It's unclear what role Bayless will serve upon his return as Jose Calderon has shined at the point in his absence. Bayless, 23, missed 13 games earlier this season because of an ankle injury so the Raptors won't force him back to the court. Bayless netted 30 points during his last game against lowly Washington prior to the injury, and should be considered a low-end Fantasy option in deeper formats when healthy.

Keith Bogans
Bogans to be ready for camp
Keith Bogans, SG, NJ
2:52 PM
News: New Jersey G Keith Bogans had season-ending surgery Monday to repair his fractured left ankle and is expected to be prepared for the start of training camp next year, according to Yahoo Sports. He also suffered a complete tear of the deltoid ligament during a game last Wednesday.
Analysis: Bogans appeared in only five games for the Nets prior to the injury and was not an integral member of the rotation. He finished with averages of 4.2 points and 2.2 rebounds per game during his first season with New Jersey. He should be left untouched in all Fantasy formats.

 
 
 
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