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Happy New Year! Welcome to the 2009 edition of Dear Mr. Fantasy. During their final game of 2008, the Portland Trail Blazers made a statement about what is to come for their franchise in the near future. Going out with a large bang, the Blazers hosted the defending champion Boston Celtics and beat them back for a 91-86 win.
The victory resonated around the league as the Baby Blazers are finally ready to graduate with the new year into contenders in the Western Conference. Across the board in Fantasy, the Blazers are on the rise as well. Be it Brandon Roy or Steve Blake, Greg Oden or LaMarcus Aldrige, Portland is a team full of great Fantasy talent. However, there is one player we touted would have a major impact this season and Tuesday's win proved just the opposite for his value going forward.
Don't get me wrong, I still love Rudy Fernandez's game. But the one thing I covet most out of any Fantasy player is minutes and I don't see Rudy ever being more than just a three-point specialist with the deeply loaded Blazers. I had no choice but to let him go for Mike James. I'm betting Arenas won't be back this year and James continues his current good play. Did I make the right move or should I hurry up and get Rudy back for a second-half comeback? -- Marlon Bravo, Washington D.C.
JL: We completely agree, Marlon. We love Fernandez, too, but at this point, especially after he got the start for Brandon Roy in Tuesday's game and still did little in extended minutes, it doesn't look like he'll be able to have the impact we thought after seeing him light up Beijing in the Olympics.
The 6-foot-6 shooting guard with point guard skills and a nasty long-range shot is averaging nine points per night over his last five games and managed just eight points in 32 minutes as a starter vs. Boston. That would be fine if he was passing out of this world, but with just 2.2 assists per night and two on Tuesday, that is definitely not the case. He is averaging almost two threes per night over the entire season but that is his only redeemable quality for Fantasy purposes right now. He serves a much greater purpose as a spark plug for the loaded Blazers and will likely not become a scorer for the team this season. There are just too many other good players, especially with Steve Blake grabbing the role of sharp shooter. You definitely made the right call with James. Who knows when Arenas will return? But James is definitely worth more than Fernandez right now.
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| As long as you are realistic, Tyson Chandler should continue to produce for you. (Getty Images) |
JL: People, people, people, please! Let's get this straight. Chandler is not struggling. Is he down a bit from last year? Sure. But he's just fine. Your expectations seem to be way too high. Chandler averaged almost 12 points and 12 rebounds per game last season with 1.1 blocks. Those are excellent numbers for any Fantasy center but they came in his seventh NBA season and the bottom line is, that was his breakout. It's likely not going to get any better than that. So with less than half the season remaining and Chandler pulling down 8.8 points and 8.2 rebounds -- and an increase in blocks at 1.6 per night -- there is no reason to believe Chandler was ever going to perform head and shoulders better than he has. And the fact remains, the Hornets are winning so they really couldn't ask for anything more from him and you shouldn't either.
The latest injury news on Chris Kaman is not good. Is it time to cut him? -- Melissa Carter, Boston
JL: Indeed, the Los Angeles Times is reporting that Kaman, originally hoping to return by the end of December from a strained arch in his left foot, will now not return until at least the middle of January. His rehab is progressing much slower than anticipated as it is the second time his projected return date has been pushed back.
But Kaman is one of those rare centers in the game today who is a double-double threat every time he steps onto the court. He's averaging nearly 14 points and 9.4 boards per night this season in 15 games and has seven double-doubles already. After averaging 15.7 points and 12.7 boards last season, Kaman was easily a No. 1 Fantasy center in an NBA that lacks quality big men. He's definitely worth keeping on your roster until he can return. If he ever gets back to normal, and he should, he'll go right back to helping your Fantasy team in a major way.
Last week I made a trade for Gilbert Arenas. I gave up Jameer Nelson straight up to get him. I am pretty deep at guard and figures I could afford to wait for Agent Zero to get healthy. Will Arenas' second half stats be good enough to make this trade pay off? -- Kyle Thompson, Dubuque, Iowa
JL: Here's the deal with Arenas. One major news source owned by a mouse is reporting that the Wizards will bring Agent Zero back this season regardless of their position in the standings -- and trust us, it will be last. Of course, the Washington Post is saying Washington could shut him down because the playoffs are basically not a possibility already and there is no use in rushing him back. So, basically, it's anybody's guess as to when and if Arenas will come back.
A healthy Arenas will surely bring you better tidings than Nelson, but with 16.7 points and 5.2 assists per game with a solid amount of threes, steals and rebounds, Nelson has been all any Fantasy owners can ask for this season. If you have other guards performing at that level or higher, and if you do you have an excellent team already, than this makes sense because Arenas could return and put your team over the top. But you do have that chance he doesn't return at all and should one of your surplus guards get injured, you'd be left with a hole that Nelson would have filled nicely.
I'm playing in a Rotisserie keeper league and so far am doing great in first place. I've been hanging on to my worst player, Jason Thompson. Do you see Thompson's playing time increasing in the near future with the Kings or should I look to replace him with a Hakim Warrick or Andray Blatche-type player if the opportunity arises? -- Lee Pino, Norwalk, Conn.
JL: At 8-24 and in last place of the Pacific Division in the Western Conference, it is safe to say that the Kings are going nowhere. As such, Sacramento will give plenty of opportunity to its younger players, especially when they playoffs become less and less of a possibility -- though it is already quite minimal. That means, yes, we do expect Thompson, a good looking rookie out of Rider, to get some more time. He's performed admirably thus far with 9.2 points and almost eight rebounds per night while playing about 24 minutes. The undrafted Thompson has the ability and size to succeed as a power forward in the NBA and could develop into a nice one-two punch down low with Spencer Hawes.
That said, because of Hawes and Brad Miller, Thompson doesn't have a lot of room to get more minutes unless injury occurs. Forget about Blatche, but if Warrick is available in your league off waivers, he's your guy. While Thompson could be good for a keeper league because of upside, Warrick is still just 26 years old and is finally starting to figure it out in Memphis of late. He scored 25 points in his last game and is averaging 18.2 with almost six boards and a block per night over his last five. That is head and shoulders better than anything he's done in his first three years in the NBA and year four could be the one he completes a breakout. That could make him a keeper for next year as well as the best option going forward into 2009.
Do you think this trade is a fair deal? I am offering Jamal Crawford and Andrei Kirilenko and am asking for Deron Williams in return. My objective is to stabilize my scoring in the points and assists categories. Would I get that with this trade? -- Hirata Ichiro, Kasugai, Japan
JL: Greetings in Japan! Is this a fair trade? Hesitantly, we say yes, it is fair because two-for-one trades generally are when they deal with a No. 1 overall guy like Williams for two solid players such as Crawford and AK-47. We believe in the buy low, sell high mantra and right now Kirilenko is high like a kite. He's not the guy he once was in Fantasy, a Rotisserie stud, but he still puts up numbers in a multitude of categories and is averaging 16 points and 10 boards over his last five games. That comes with 2.2 steals, 1.6 blocks and solid percentages. That won't last, however, and Williams value is only rising as he continues to heat up after missing so much time early in the season.
Crawford is the best scorer of the bunch but will often have nights he doesn't show up, especially since moving to Golden State from New York. This trade, if you can pull the trigger -- and it will be tough to get Williams' owner to part with him -- will certainly give you what you want. Your assists will skyrocket and your scoring will be much more consistent with better shooting percentages. You are giving up some points and some other intangibles and that is what makes this trade fair. That said, unless the guy who owns Williams is a huge Crawford fan, we doubt you'll be able to talk him into making this trade.
I've been riding Trevor Ariza and Paul Millsap for several weeks now. Unfortunately, they both seem to be declining in Fantasy value. What would be the best course of action? If I had to drop one of them, which would it be or both? -- Roger Howard, New York
JL: You can get off the Ariza ride right now. He's mediocre and is more flash than substance. He's the guy to drop. Millsap, however, has far more value than you know right now. Millsap is the proud owner of 15 straight double-doubles, a steak that is still running, but he's out for the next week or so with injury. Originally, we figured Carlos Boozer, who Millsap has been starting for, would be back from his own knee injury by the time Millsap came back relegating him back to his bench role. Well, Boozer is opting to have arthroscopic surgery and will now likely be out until at least the end of February, that means Millsap will be able to pick up right where he left off, a double-double machine. Continue to ride him for as long as you can.
Now that Nenad Krstic is back in the NBA with the Oklahoma City Thunder, what can we expect out of him and is he worth grabbing up off waivers immediately? -- Tommie Willis, Kansas City
JL: Krstic gives the Thunder their first legitimate center. Let's face it, Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Mouhamed Sene aren't getting it done so Krstic will have an immediate impact and could start almost right away. He averaged 11.3 points and 5.7 boards in four years in New Jersey and was having his best season before suffering a torn ligament in his left knee two years ago. He'll definitely need some time to adjust to the NBA game after playing in Russia and averaging 10.4 points and 5.2 boards in seven games, but he will be the Thunder's best option and will be a good source of double-doubles going forward. At a paper thin position like center, Krstic is worth grabbing off waivers immediately in all leagues because of his upside. Just 25 years of age, the former first round draft pick has a lot to offer.
Do you have a question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com and we'll address as many as we can. Put Attn: Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Include your name, hometown and state.
