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Jeff Lippman

Stockwatch: Rookies not getting the point

By | Fantasy Writer

Rookies. You can't live without them and they can't stay consistent for more than a week at a time. Usually.

While O.J. Mayo keeps on trucking towards the Rookie of the Year and Greg Oden keeps on floundering as he learns the NBA game, there is a triumvirate of first-year point guards out there whose stocks have risen and fallen more than Giants' fans opinions of Eli Manning.

Selected No. 1, No. 4 and No. 34 overall in last year's NBA Draft, Chicago's Derrick Rose, Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook and Miami's Mario Chalmers have all been contributing members to Fantasy owners lineups for most of the season and all start at the point for their respective teams.

It's rare for three NBA teams to place the keys to the ignition in the hands of the inexperienced and even rarer to expect those new drivers not to crash at some point during the season. And that is exactly what two of the following players are going through right now. They're crashing after hot starts. The third, however, is still rolling right along and only getting scarily better right now.

No need to guess which is which. Just read on.

Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago
Rose isn't injured but his head must be hurting right about now. That's because he's slammed into the rookie wall big time of late. The star No. 1 overall draft pick of the Bulls started the season off red hot and was a very realistic candidate for Rookie of the Year right along with Mayo because he averaged 19 points, six assists and four boards per game in November. Then came December, where he dropped those numbers to 16-6-3 and, oh no, watch out. Now, in five January games he's putting up just 13-6-3. Defenses are starting to pay him more attention and Rose will just have to adjust. The good news is his assists are still at a high level and we expect the scoring to return as he's definitely one of the best players in the rookie class.
Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City
Incredibly, the polar opposite of Rose's year is that of Westbrook for the Thunder. The No. 4 overall pick in last year's draft started his season on the bench. He played well in November and averaged 12 points, four assists and three boards per night. He improved to 16-5-5 in December and is already dropping 16-7-5 in five January games. What's more, Westbrook, never known to be much of a scorer in college at UCLA, is also contributing a steal per game and some threes as he's become an absolute Rotisserie stud for a point guard. He's so versatile, the Thunder started him at shooting guard last Saturday against Rose's Bulls instead of at the point and he responded by grabbing 12 rebounds as he was able to play off the ball. Apparently, the 6-foot-3 kid from Long Beach can do it all and he's yet to suffer any cold streaks. Right now, Westbrook is challenging Mayo for that Rookie of the Year trophy and few likely predicted that before the season began.
Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami
Chalmers is also learning about that dreaded rookie wall right now, especially after playing just nine minutes in the Heat's last game against the Lakers. Chalmers picked up three early fouls in the game and coach Erik Spoelstra basically benched him for the rest of the game with Chris Quinn taking the reigns. Relax, Chalmers will stay the team's starting point guard for the foreseeable future but you can bet this was a wake up call for a guy who is averaging eight points, five assists and three rebounds per game over his last five after putting up far better numbers earlier in the season. Unlike Westbrook or Rose, Chalmers started slow in November, got hot in December and is again starting January cold. He's been more yo-yo than a steady progression up or down like the other two. That gives us full confidence that he'll be back up before long, but right now he's struggling just a bit.
Andrea Bargnani, C, Toronto
For a guy averaging 12 points, five boards and 1.3 blocks per game this season as a soft center who is more known for shooting threes than backing anyone down low, Bargnani is playing out of his mind right now. And it is all thanks to Jermaine O'Neal's right knee. In the seven games that O'Neal has missed, Bargnani hasn't scored less than 17 points in any game and is averaging 21 per night. That comes with seven boards and over three three-pointers per game. As of right now there is no timetable for a return for O'Neal so keep on starting Bargnani. He's been nothing less than a must-start stud since O'Neal's been out and that will continue.
Allen Iverson, G, Detroit
You didn't honestly think that Iverson playing on the Pistons would be good for his Fantasy statistics did you? Well, if you did, sorry. Iverson wearing Detroit across his chest is almost like Superman wearing a hat laced with kryptonite for his Fantasy value. He's still worth owning across the board, sure, but after averaging 26 points and seven assists per game last season in Denver, the 18 and 5.5 he's getting this season just isn't the same. Plus, his steals, blocks and threes are down while his field goal percentage and his turnovers are pretty much holding steady. Bottom line, Iverson is no longer an elite Fantasy scorer as a member of the Pistons.
Mardy Collins, PG, L.A. Clippers
The Clippers can lose every game from now until the end of the season with Baron Davis and Zach Randolph sitting on the bench and Fantasy owners can be happy they picked up Collins. A complete unknown in Fantasy just six games ago, Collins has catapulted to such a level that you could argue he can be started in the majority of deeper Fantasy leagues at this time. Davis is dealing with a tailbone injury that has now kept him out for six straight games and it is no secret that the minute he went out and Collins began to pick up playing time he began putting up solid numbers. Now, Davis could be out an extended amount of time with no timetable for a return and that should keep Collins in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. Collins is averaging 13 points, six assists, five rebounds, two steals and a three per game in his last five while averaging over 40 minutes per night. Those are excellent numbers, especially for a guy owned in zero Fantasy leagues as recently as Week 10.
Josh Howard, SF, Dallas
There are more than a few reasons for Howard's stock to be down and all of them are frustrating the heck out of Fantasy owners who drafted the supposed Rotisserie maven early on in drafts. Howard's scoring average is down to 18 points per game this season after missing a good chunk of November and December with injury. He scored 20 points per night last year. Also down from last year's numbers are rebounds by two per game, assists, steals and field goal percentage. He is shooting more threes but his turnovers are on the rise. Now, he's dealing with a similar wrist injury that kept him out earlier this season and will likely miss Dallas' upcoming road trip. This injury could linger and has already affected his game, so it is likely Howard will never get back to last season's lofty numbers.
Drew Gooden, PF, Chicago
Nothing like missing eight games with an injured ankle to give your game a boost in production. Well, actually, we'd normally expect missing that much time to be a detriment, but for Gooden it was just what the doctor ordered. Gooden is averaging 13 points and nine boards for the season in Chicago but has bested those numbers in all three of the games he's played since his return. He's averaging 18 points, 11 rebounds, two assists and a block in that span and he's increased his minutes up to 37 per night. Right now Gooden is as hot as it gets and it comes after many dropped him when he was injured. If Gooden continues playing at this level he's a must-start across the board in any league, especially as he's got the ability to play at center in leagues that allow for multiple positions.
Chris Wilcox, C, Oklahoma City
Still owned in 34 percent of Fantasy leagues, Wilcox is about as cold as it gets right now for the Thunder. So cold, in fact, that the team has kept him on the bench the last two nights and may get rid of him altogether. With the team's addition of center Nenad Krstic, who should be starting by the end of the month, Wilcox and the 6-3-2 he was averaging over his previous five games becomes disposable. Wilcox has lots of upside that he's really only flashed and never reached in his seven years in the NBA and it looks like if he's not traded soon -- he's in the final year of his contract -- he'll be of little use to your Fantasy team from here on out.
Kelenna Azubuike, SG, Golden State
The Warriors always have some random player putting up sick stats, don't they? If it isn't Anthony Morrow it's Marco Belinelli. If it isn't Belinelli -- he's hurt now -- than it is Azubuike. Right now the third-year man out of Kentucky is as hot as it gets. He's averaging 19 points per game in his last three since returning from a one-game absence with the flu. That average comes with 3.5 boards and a three per night. Plus, he's shooting 64 percent from the field. Don Nelson has a propensity for changing lineups and playing rotations and right now Azubuike is in the right rotation for success, so use him until his minutes and numbers begin to drop again.

Do you have a Fantasy Basketball question or comment for our staff of Fantasy writers? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Derrick Rose
Rose to visit back specialist
Derrick Rose, PG, CHI
2:11 PM
News: Chicago PG Derrick Rose (back) had to miss Sunday's game at Boston, reports the Chicago Tribune. Rose gave an ominous sign on Saturday saying he was unsure if he would be able to play Sunday. He was correct as he had to miss a second straight game. Rose's back continues to be stiff and sore for the superstar and he will visit a back specialist on Monday. Rose could miss a few more games before his return. "You're always concerned," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said. "It's something he has had before. He had it when he was in high school. We're hopeful it will get cleared up quickly but we're not sure."
Analysis: Rose has now missed seven games this season due to toe and back injuries. He was thought to have entered the season in the best shape of his career, but has continued to come up with nagging bumps and bruises. "This is the most I've ever been injured," he said. "It's frustrating knowing I worked so hard. I hate missing games, especially when we're playing against great teams. I hate missing any game." The good news is that Rose truly does hate missing games. Owners can feel good knowing that he'll be out there if he can play at all. That said, he could miss some more time going forward, so owners might consider sitting him for the upcoming scoring period. Rose remains a must-start Fantasy option, when healthy.

Rajon Rondo
Rondo has monster triple-double
Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS
6:15 PM
News: Boston PG Rajon Rondo had a monster performance on Sunday afternoon to help beat the Chicago Bulls. Rondo did his damage as Derrick Rose missed the game for Chicago, but the results were still incredible as he scored 32 points, dished out 15 assists and grabbed 10 rebounds for a triple-double. Rondo went 11 of 22 from the field and 10 of 13 from the line in the win. He added two steals and had five turnovers for the Celtics in the win. It was just the 10th time since 1986 that an NBA player recorded at least 30 points, 15 assists and 10 rebounds.
Analysis: Rondo had another silly performance on Sunday. When he wants to score, he can score with anyone and could be a 20-plus point-per-game scorer. As it stands, Rondo is averaging around 13 points per game on the year. Still, that comes with around 10 assists per game with a couple steals. He's not having his all-around awesome usual season, but Rondo remains a must-start Fantasy PG for use at all times for games just like the one he put up on Sunday.

Brandon Bass
Bass to miss two weeks due to knee
Brandon Bass, PF, BOS
2:35 PM
News: Boston PF Brandon Bass will miss two weeks of action due to his sore knee, reports the Boston Globe on Sunday. Bass missed Sunday's game against the Bulls. Bass played 30 minutes on Friday at Toronto and scored 10 points with seven rebounds.
Analysis: Bass was trying to play through his knee injury and apparently that caused a setback that will keep him out for at least two weeks now. That will see Bass out until at least the end of February. Bass was averaging 11.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game over 29 minutes for the Celtics on the year. When healthy, he has plenty of value in deeper Fantasy formats.

John Wall
Wall dishes it out vs. Pistons
John Wall, PG, WAS
9:31 PM
News: Wizards G John Wall did not have his finest scoring performance on Sunday against the Pistons but he helped his teammates get their points. He dished out a season-high 15 assists and finished with nine points in the 98-77 win. He went just 3 for 10 from the floor, including missing his lone attempt from downtown, but made all three of his free throws. Wall also chipped in with five rebounds, two steals and two blocks while playing 39 minutes.
Analysis: Wall scored in single digits for just the fifth time this season on Sunday but he was able to fill up the stat sheet very nicely for owners. He is averaging 19.6 points with nine assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.4 steals in his last five contests, and is shooting 49 percent over that span. The 21-year-old has turned into one of the more exciting point guards in the league and he will have his hands full in Week 8 (Feb. 13-19). With games against the Trail Blazers, Clippers and Jazz on the schedule, continue to roll with Wall as a must-start Fantasy G.

Dexter Pittman
Pittman plays, suffers injury
Dexter Pittman, C, MIA
10:21 PM
News: Heat C Dexter Pittman has seen his role on the team increase in recent games, as he played double digit minutes in the team’s two games prior to Sunday’s matchup with the Hawks. He was on his way to topping that mark again, however he suffered a sprained left shoulder during the game and the Heat decided to limit his limits in the 107-87 blowout win over the Hawks. Pittman finished with two points on 1 of 4 shooting while grabbing just a single rebound in six minutes of playing time.
Analysis: The injury probably isn’t serious, and the Heat don’t lean on Pittman heavily anyways. While there is some potential in Pittman’s big body, at this point even if he’s healthy, Fantasy owners shouldn’t be looking his way in any formats. Leave him on waivers.

Jordan Crawford
Crawford not shooting well
Jordan Crawford, SG, WAS
10:16 PM
News: Wizards G Jordan Crawford had another poor performance shooting the ball on Sunday against the Pistons. He finished with just four points on 2 of 12 shooting in the 98-77 win. He went 0 for 3 from beyond the arc and did not get to the foul line while playing 21 minutes off the bench. Crawford posted four assists and a rebound in the victory.
Analysis: Crawford has scored in single digits three straight games and is really struggling with his shot. He is averaging 8.4 points with 3.2 assists and 2.2 rebounds in his last five contests, and is shooting a lowly 26 percent over that span. Meanwhile, Nick Young has been racking up the points, and has been seeing more playing time as a result. Crawford can be a viable option in Fantasy when going well but due to his recent play, keep him reserved in deeper formats.

Joel Anthony
Anthony not doing much
Joel Anthony, C, MIA
10:14 PM
News: Heat C Joel Anthony was the only Miami Heat starter not to reach double-digits in scoring on Sunday, as the Heat went up big early on the Hawks. They would wind up winning 107-87, as Anthony finished with just four points and four rebounds in the game while accruing no other stats.
Analysis: Anthony is a starter, but he plays the minutes of a reserve, as the Heat prefer to go with other options for much of their games. Anthony is a defensive specialist, so his main fantasy contributions come in the block and steal categories. However due to his limited playing time, he’s averaging just 1.0 blocks and .5 steals. Unless he is able to somehow increase his overall production, owners should continue to view Anthony as merely a low-end option in deeper Rotisserie formats.

Jan Vesely
Vesely has best performance thus far
Jan Vesely, SF, WAS
9:53 PM
News: Wizards F Jan Vesely had the best performance of his young career on Sunday night against the Pistons. The rookie finished with 10 points and eight rebounds -- both personal bests -- in the 98-77 win. He went 4 for 5 from the floor and made both of his free throws while playing 28 minutes off the bench. Vesely also chipped in with three blocks, two steals and two assists in the victory.
Analysis: Vesely made the most of his playing time on Sunday and saw some addition run in the blowout. He is averaging 4.2 points with 3.6 rebounds in his last five contests, and is shooting nearly 53 percent over that span. The 21-year-old has yet to find a significant roll with the Wizards thus far but he still has some intriguing upside in Fantasy. Keep an eye on his progress going forward and keep Vesely active in only the deepest of formats heading into Week 8 (Feb. 13-19).

Nick Young
Young scores in 20s once again
Nick Young, SG, WAS
9:47 PM
News: Wizards G Nick Young scored 20-plus points for the fifth time in his last seven games on Sunday against the Pistons. He finished with 22 points and three rebounds in the 98-77 win. He went 8 for 13 from the floor, including 3 for 6 from beyond the arc, and made all three of his free throws. Young, who played 31 minutes, also chipped in with two steals and an assist in the victory.
Analysis: Young has been able to find his scoring stroke again in recent weeks and is now averaging 17.3 points on the year. He is putting up 18.8 points with 3.2 rebounds and one steal in his last five contests, despite shooting just 40 percent from the field over that span. His shooting percentage has been down all around thus far but being a high-volume shooter, he will continue to get his looks on a nightly basis. While he does not contribute a ton in other categories, continue to roll with Young as a low-end option in larger Fantasy formats heading into Week 8 (Feb. 13-19).

JaVale McGee
McGee with another big double-double
JaVale McGee, C, WAS
9:38 PM
News: After posting his first double-double of February his last time out, Wizards C JaVale McGee had another solid night on Sunday against the Pistons. He scored 22 points and hauled in 11 rebounds in the 98-77 win. He was an efficient 10 for 13 from the field and made 2 of 3 free throws while playing 35 minutes. McGee also posted two blocks in the victory.
Analysis: McGee has been able to show owners over the last two games what he is capable of when he is on his game. The athletic big man has the skills to average a double-double on a nightly basis and is one of the better shot-blockers in the NBA. While his inconsistencies hurt his value, the upside of the 24-year-old is what makes him so attractive in Fantasy. With the Trail Blazers, Clippers and Jazz on the schedule for Week 8 (Feb. 13-19), consider getting McGee active in larger formats.

 
 
 
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