As far as NBA Drafts are concerned, the 2009 edition was a snoozer that lacked in star power and overall talent relative to other NBA Drafts. However, that does not mean Fantasy owners should sleep on the viable Fantasy options that came out of it.
To be fair, an NBA draft class cannot truly be judged for at least 3-5 years later. But there is no denying that this class appears to lack in players who could drastically alter the course of a franchise. It certainly appears to lack players who could drastically alter the course of a Fantasy hoops team. There are players, however, that will be worthwhile in Fantasy. Some in the short term, others over the long haul.
One thing this draft did not lack was point guards. Just ask the Minnesota Timberwolves, who appeared to be stocking them like they were canned food items and a hurricane was coming. The strength of this draft class overall will certainly be judged upon the success of the guards and they will provide the most impact right out of the chute. As far as big men are concerned, this class is unimpressive.
Fantasy owners should always be cautious with rookies, regardless of how rich in talent the draft is or is not. Rookies are notoriously streaky players who cannot and should not be entrusted with a great deal of your Fantasy fate. This year more than others, though, Fantasy owners should be particularly cautious with which rookies they choose. Much of this class has been described to posess "long-term potential" and very few players are considered to be ready to contribute as rookies.
Here is a look at the top five rookies to target in 2009-10:
Stephen Curry, G, Warriors
The seventh pick in the NBA Draft should be the first rookie to come off the board in Fantasy drafts. He led the nation in scoring last season for Davidson by averaging 28.6 points per game, also averaging 5.6 assists and 4.4 rebounds. There was talk after the draft that he could be traded, but those rumors were quickly shot down. He'll play for a Warriors team sure to be among the league leaders in shot volume as they have been every year under head coach Don Nelson. He will likely start out of the gate and is in the best situation among any of the rookies to contribute right away. Expect him to see around 30 minutes per game, averaging anywhere in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 points per game with healthy contributions in assists. He'll also be an excellent source for three-point shooting. Curry and Monta Ellis could go back and forth between the one and two-guard spots and each should get ample chances to score as well as set up other teammates.
Draft: Middle rounds as a No. 3 guard in standard leagues
Upside: 20 ppg, 4 apg, 3 rpg
Realistically: 15 ppg, 3 apg, 3 rpg
Blake Griffin, F, Clippers
The No. 1 overall pick in the draft is likely the best player in the draft long-term. In keeper leagues, Fantasy owners should think about taking him ahead of Curry as a result. However, this season he'll head into a situation with the Clippers having a logjam of big men in the front court. Currently on the roster are Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby, and Griffin could be looking at a bench role to begin his career. The Clippers could make a move to ease the congestion and provide more minutes for the future of their franchise, but they could choose to bring him along slowly like the Miami Heat chose to do last season with Michael Beasley.
Draft: Middle rounds as a No. 4 or 5 forward in standard leagues
Upside: 18 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 apg
Realistically: 14 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg
Terrence Williams, G/F, Nets
The 11th overall pick in the NBA Draft qualifies as one of the better sleeper prospects among rookies. He'll play significant minutes for a Nets team that is now clearly in rebuilding mode after trading away Vince Carter. The team lacks pure scoring options outside of Devin Harris and there is room for Williams to see not only good minutes at the two and the three for the Nets, but also plenty of shot attempts. He is a solid athlete with the ability to create his own shot and the possibility exists for him to play a prominent role.
Draft: Late rounds as a No. 5 or 6 guard or forward (depending on eligibility rules)
Upside: 15 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg
Realistically: 12 ppg, 3 rpg 3 apg
Jonny Flynn, G, Timberwolves
The No. 6 overall pick in the NBA Draft was the second of back-to-back point guards selected by the Timberwolves, the first being Spanish 18-year-old Ricky Rubio. The T'Wolves insist that both players can co-exist successfully playing beside each other in the back court. However, Rubio is in the process of deciding whether or not he will return to Spain to play out the remainder of his contract with DKV Joventut Badalona. He has two years remaining on his contract and could conceivably miss the next two NBA seasons. The Timberwolves traded away Randy Foye in a deal to move up in the draft and Flynn's only real competition for the point guard spot in Minnesota would be Sebastian Telfair if Rubio is not around. Flynn is a pure point guard, but he also averaged 17.4 points per game as a sophomore last season for Syracuse. He could find himself as the starting point guard in Minnesota this season, getting anywhere from 30 to 40 minutes per game. Monitor the Rubio situation as the offseason progresses.
Draft: Late rounds as a No. 5 guard
Upside: 13 ppg, 6 apg, 3 rpg
Realistically: 10 ppg, 5 apg, 2 rpg
Jordan Hill, F, Knicks
Analysis: The No. 8 overall pick in the NBA Draft will head into a favorable situation in New York, playing for a high-octane offensive team. He should fit right in as a versatile forward with a solid offensive skill set. He averaged 18.3 points per game as a junior for Arizona last season and would be in line for a signficant role if the team does not bring back David Lee. Mike D'Antoni's offense has done wonders for the Fantasy value of lesser players in the past and Hill could be one of the real steals of Fantasy drafts this season as a result.
Draft: Late rounds as a No. 5 forward
Upside: 15 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 apg
Realistically: 10 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 apg
Do you have a question or comment for Sergio? You can e-mail him at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: NBA Draft in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
