Just because there aren't NBA games going on doesn't mean there aren't any winners or losers. This summer has seen plenty with offseason moves beginning to shape NBA rosters for the upcoming season.
From a Fantasy perspective, many players have seen their stock rise and fall with the moves that have been made.
Good players have been put into less-than-optimal situations where their numbers will inevitably suffer. At the same time, players without much star power are going to be given a chance to demonstrate what they can accomplish in significant roles. This creates a chance for great values in Fantasy for owners who know how to take advantage of these situations.
Here is a look at the winners and losers so far during this Fantasy offseason:
Winners
Luis Scola, F, Rockets
2008-09 statistical highlights: 12.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 53.1 field-goal percentage
Current 2009-10 projections: 14.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 1.2 spg, 52.6 field-goal percentage
Why he is a winner: This is a case of addition by subtraction. The Rockets are going to be without Yao Ming for the 2009-10 season and while that is a crushing blow to the team's chances of contending, it should allow Scola to flourish in a significant low-post role. The Rockets tried to address their big man void in the offseason by going after free-agent centers like Marcin Gortat, but were shut out. Considering the team also lost Ron Artest in the offseason and is expected to be without Tracy McGrady until midseason, look for Scola to see a lot more offensive touches as well as more rebounds. He has played 82 games in each of his first two seasons. His current projections are fair, but could actually end up being a bit on the conservative side with the Rockets starved for reliable options.
Lou Williams, G, 76ers
2008-09 statistical highlights: 12.8 ppg, 3.0 apg, 1.0 spg
Current 2009-10 projections: 13.4 ppg, 5.0 apg, 1.1 spg
Why he is a winner: Williams' projections may not scream breakout, but he is in a situation where he can bypass those numbers by a wide margin thanks to the departure of Andre Miller in the offseason. The Sixers say they are going to trust Williams with the starting point guard job this fall and that means a big boost in playing time. He accomplished adequate numbers last season considering the fact he averaged just 23.7 minutes per game, starting none of the 81 games he played in. This season, his minutes should approach 35 per game, which should allow for his numbers to jump across the board. He will also need to take on a more active distributor role which should lead to much higher assist numbers than what he is being projected for. He should be available in the later rounds of standard Fantasy drafts and while we have already predicted an increase in statistical output, there will still be a good chance for him to outperform his draft value.
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| With Ben Gordon out of the picture, Kirk Hinrich could have renewed Fantasy value. (Getty Images) |
2008-09 statistical highlights: 9.9 ppg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 rpg
Current 2009-10 projections: 13.9 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.0 rpg
Why he is a winner: The best thing to happen to Hinrich's Fantasy value this offseason was Ben Gordon signing with the Pistons. Hinrich had become a role player in Chicago last season due to the arrival of rookie Derrick Rose, but he will return to a more significant position in the rotation with the team adding only Jannero Pargo to fill Gordon's void. There should be more minutes, which will allow him to return to his pre-Rose numbers. Hinrich has been a Fantasy star in the past, averaging 16.6 points, 6.3 assists, 3.4 rebounds and more than one steal and three pointer per game in his best season back in 2006-07. He may not get back to that type of production, but the potential for a big boost is there, which makes Hinrich a solid sleeper pick in drafts.
Emeka Okafor, F/C, Hornets
2008-09 statistical highlights: 13.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 56.1 field-goal percentage
Current 2009-10 projections: 14.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 57.7 field-goal percentage
Why he is a winner: Unlike the other winners mentioned to this point, Okafor is not in for higher production this season due to a chance for more playing time. He will be getting the same amount of playing time in New Orleans with his new team as he was getting in Charlotte, but the difference here is who he has around him. He will be teaming up with perhaps the best pure passer in the league in Chris Paul, which is sure to lead to more easy buckets than Okafor has enjoyed in any of his five seasons with the Bobcats. On the flip side of this offseason move, Tyson Chandler should be in line for a drop in offensive productivity. The numbers are hard to ignore. Prior to Chandler hooking up with Paul in New Orleans, he shot over 50 percent from the field just twice in four seasons. Upon his arrival in New Orleans, Chandler's shooting percentages were 62.4 percent in 2006-07, 62.3 percent in 2007-08 and 56.5 percent in what was an injury-riddled year for Chandler in 2008-09. Chandler, who is not considered an offensive force, averaged a career-best 11.8 points during his last healthy season playing alongside Paul. Okafor, who has played 82 games in each of his last two seasons, should be on the receiving end of plenty of alley oop passes this season.
Amar'e Stoudemire, F, Suns
2008-09 statistical highlights: 21.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.1 bpg
Current 2009-10 projections: 24.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.7 bpg
Why he is a winner: The only thing that negatively impacted Stoudemire's Fantasy value this offseason was the fact that he lost center eligibility by playing all of his games at power forward with Shaquille O'Neal in the picture last year. But fear not, Fantasy owners, as Stoudemire could very easily regain the very valuable attribute of being center eligible in leagues that allow for multiple eligibility this season now that Shaq is off to partner up with LeBron James in Cleveland. On top of the possible return of his positional flexibility is the fact that no Shaq should lead to more rebounds and blocks. Stoudemire also became a winner this offseason by not leaving the Suns, who figure to once again be one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA under Alvin Gentry. Stoudemire has made it clear that he is not completely happy with the direction the team is going, but that could actually be a good thing considering he will be looking to showcase himself to other teams in what amounts to a contract season for him. As long as the eye injury he sustained last season does not affect him this season, and it is not expected to, Stoudemire is in for a big year.
Losers
Lamar Odom, F, Lakers
2008-09 statistical highlights: 11.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.6 apg
Current 2009-10 projections: 11.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.4 apg
Why he is a loser: Odom is a loser only by the perverse standards of Fantasy sports. He made a decision to stay with the team that gives him the best chance of winning, but in turn has cost himself a chance at bigger personal success elsewhere. What a loser, right? Not really, but he is absolutely losing production potential as a complementary figure in Los Angeles when he could have easily returned the star player he has been in the past on another team with more of a featured role. Consider that prior to the injury of Andrew Bynum last season, Odom was averaging under 10 points per game and was off to the worst start in his NBA career playing a limited role. He took off following Bynum's injury, but the Lakers will head into the upcoming season at full strength and have added yet another prominent figure in Ron Artest -- another Fantasy loser heading into this season. The chances for a rise in production aren't very high for Odom or Artest this season.
Shaquille O'Neal, C, Cavaliers
2008-09 statistical highlights: 17.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.7 apg
Current 2009-10 projections: 15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.9 apg
Why he is a loser: Shaq is another player who has a chance to win this season on a new team, but who will also be sacrificing statistical glory in the name of contending. He enjoyed a renaissance in Phoenix and even managed to shake off the old injury bug while playing a very respectable 75 games last season in the desert. This season, however, he will be playing on a team that doesn't sacrifice defense for points on the offensive end and the lower overall volume of shots in Cleveland will lead to lower offensive numbers for the big man. Not to mention the fact that he will be on a team with much more depth at center with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao than what he had to deal with in Phoenix. There will be more chances to rest this offseason and the presence of Big Z and the floppy-haired Brazilian could cut into his rebound numbers as well.
Vince Carter, G, Magic
2008-09 statistical highlights: 20.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.7 apg
Current 2009-10 projections: 19.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.1 apg
Why he is a loser: Carter will be leaving a poor Nets team deprived of scoring to play alongside the likes of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson in Orlando. He may not have had a chance to win many games this season in New Jersey, but one could guarantee a ton of shot attempts and over 20 points per game. Now, a 20-point season is far from a guarantee on a team that won't need to rely on him as heavily to score points. Nobody is suggesting that Carter will become a Fantasy dog by any means, but consider the effect that similar situations have had on players like Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in Boston. Be prepared for him not to live up to past production.
Mike Bibby, G, Hawks
2008-09 statistical highlights: 14.9 ppg, 5.0 apg, 3.5 rpg, 1.2 spg
Current 2009-10 projections: 11.5 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.5, rpg, 0.9 spg
Why he is a loser: Bibby is going to have some significant company in the Atlanta back court this fall thanks to the addition of Jamal Crawford in the offseason. While the Hawks maintain that Bibby will continue to start, a guard rotation that features Crawford, Bibby and Joe Johnson offers a distinct possibility that Bibby will be the odd man out more often than not. Bibby would have had a much better chance of at least maintaining his solid numbers on another team this upcoming season, but will take on more of a game manager role this year.
Randy Foye, G, Wizards
2008-09 statistical highlights: 16.3 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.1 rpg, 1.0 spg
Current 2009-10 projections: 15.0 ppg, 4.2 apg, 3.1 rpg
Why he is a loser: Through no fault of his own, Foye went from being an up-and-coming star and building block in Minnesota to being just a piece of the puzzle in Washington. It is a puzzle that features Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Mike Miller, making Foye's piece of the pie not as significant as it could have been with the Timberwolves for years to come. Foye gives the team more insurance if injuries continue to bother Arenas this year, but his prospects for a big year diminished greatly when he was traded to Washington.
Do you have a question or comment for Sergio? You can e-mail him at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Offseason in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
