2009-10 Draft Prep: Shedding light on myths
You are in a standard, Rotisserie, nine-category league with 12 teams.
You are drafting with a bunch of your buddies and have the sixth pick in the draft. The projected names have gone early: LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Danny Granger. What do you do? You go with Dwight Howard.
Oh, boy. You've done it now. Here come the hecklers and the know-it-alls.
"Dwight Howard? Make sure you pay your league fees up front," says one owner.
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"Check this guy out. Ha! Dwight Howard."
"Don't worry, man, baseball season is right around the corner," says another owner.
"Dude, if you weren't serious about playing this league, then we could have found someone else," says the commissioner.
Fantasy owners have labeled Howard a pariah in category-based play. Despite his sensational accomplishments over the last few years, he has only begrudgingly risen to the level of a second-rounder that is picked almost unwillingly. The bad rap in category leagues is mostly due to his horrible free-throw shooting percentage, high turnover rate and sluggish assist totals. So selecting Howard in the first round -- ahead of the likes of Roto-fave center Pau Gasol -- is almost sure to draw some derision from the peanut gallery. We've seen Howard go as low as a third rounder in leagues that penalize free throws and turnovers.
But why? What is with all the Howard-hating in Rotisserie leagues? Is he really such a drag in category-based play that he's labeled as unworthy of a high first-round pick?
No, actually. It's just a myth. And we are here to disprove it. Along with other myths Fantasy owners might have going into drafts.
Myth: Dwight Howard can't be taken early in Round 1 of a category-based league.
As mentioned above, Howard's poor free-throw shooting and his low rate of assists scares away most Fantasy owners in Rotisserie-style play. Use that to your advantage.
Sure, he is going to make the chances of being first or second in free-throw shooting or turnovers nearly impossible and he isn't going to get you very far in assists, but that doesn't mean he hurts your chances of winning your league. And capitalizing on the fear of others by selecting him with a pick anywhere from mid-to-late in the first round will end up playing in your favor.
The biggest myth, when it comes to Howard, is that drafting him means you will finish last in his negative categories. That is just not true. When drafting Howard, or really any player who is a drag in a certain category, simply means you to select players who can make up for their faults.
Howard does enough things on an elite level to help Fantasy owners get past his inadequacies. He led the league in rebounds by two full rebounds over the second-place player (Troy Murphy) and also led the league in blocks with nearly three per game. If there was a category for leading the league in a category, Howard would be toward the top of that chart, too.
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| Despite his longevity, Tim Duncan has shown little signs of falling off. (Getty Images) |
Part of that development also means that those bad numbers that Fantasy owners are so afraid of should begin to change as well. Perhaps his free-throw shooting will never improve, Shaquille O'Neal's never did after all, but his lack of assists and high turnovers certainly can change.
Take Shaq as an example. Shaq averaged around two assists per game in his first few years in the league, but averaged as high as 3.8 assists per game in his prime, a stage Howard is only now entering.
Myth: You can't trust Tim Duncan, he's too old.
Man, is this one not true. Duncan is as reliable as clockwork, yet Fantasy owners tend to be a bit wary about The Big Fundamental when drafting him because of his age and because he has been in the league so long Fantasy owners fear he is going to fall off precipitously each year.
That has not been the case, however.
Look at Duncan's numbers in his 10th NBA season: 20.0 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.4 blocks.
His 11th season: 19.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.9 blocks.
His 12th season: 19.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.7 blocks.
The numbers have remained more or less on par with his career averages: 21.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.4 blocks and while he is no longer going to average 25.5 points and 12.7 rebounds as he did in his best overall year in 2000-01, he is still consistent enough to count on as a second-rounder in any league. He was one of just six players last season to play in 70-plus games and average 10 rebounds.
Other Fantasy owners may pass on him to the point where you can get him mid-Round 2, and that would be a real steal.
Myth: Vince Carter is still an injury risk.
Once a player is labeled as an injury risk in Fantasy, it's hard to shake. Just look at Carter, who has played in an average of 77.8 games in each of the last six years since missing significant time in the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons.
Many people believe that Carter played his way out of Toronto by refusing to play through injuries (or faking them all together), but he never missed significant time in his four and a half seasons with the Nets. He was banged up from time to time, but always played on.
Now in Orlando with perhaps his best chance at an NBA title, expect a determined Carter in 2009-10.
Myth: Bench players can't help Fantasy owners.
Fantasy owners dread to hear that one of their players is going to the bench. But, it doesn't necessarily indicate a player's production is going to decline. Take, for example, Manu Ginobili. Ginobili has come off the bench in more than 50 percent of his games since 2005-06 and has remained a very productive Fantasy guard (when healthy).
Jason Terry has started just 45 of 156 games over his last two seasons, but has also remained a consistent Fantasy option. In fact, he started the fewest games of his career last season (11), but managed to average his second-highest scoring average (19.6). Ben Gordon averaged 18.6 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game in 2007-08 despite starting just 27 of 72 games.
The important thing is the amount of minutes a player gets and the amount of touches he will get with his playing time.
What NBA teams are doing more and more is separating one of their better five players from the starting unit in order to give them better depth and life off the bench when the starters need a breather. Many sixth men around the league wind up having much better value than a lot of starters (Nicolas Batum, anyone?).
Keep that in mind when drafting players like Jamal Crawford, Jarrett Jack and even Allen Iverson this fall.
Do you have a question or comment for Sergio? You can e-mail him at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Myths in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
