2009-10 Draft Prep: Central Division Preview
Heading into the start of the NBA preseason, we offer a team-by-team look, including projected starting lineups and what to watch for in October as each team sets their rotations for the start of the regular season on Oct. 27.
Chicago Bulls
Possible Starters: PG Derrick Rose, SG John Salmons, SF Luol Deng, PF Tyrus Thomas, C Brad Miller
Preseason storylines: Who will replace Ben Gordon? Can Luol Deng bounce back? How will the front court shape up?
Fantasy Analysis: The Bulls lost Ben Gordon to free agency in the offseason and did not bring in a prominent player to replace him. The Bulls will likely start Salmons at the two with Luol Deng at small forward, but the team does not have much depth at small forward in that scenario and Deng is a player coming off an injury-riddled season, so there could be a need for a player like Kirk Hinrich or Jannero Pargo to take on a bigger role off the ball in order to have Salmons able to play more at the three. That could allow Hinrich to become a double-digit scorer again after slipping under the 10-point mark last season for the first time in his career. We expect big things from Derrick Rose in his second season, often the year when the biggest statistical growth is seen in NBA players. He can still hurt owners in category-based play due to his poor free throw and three-point shooting, but we should see some big leaps in scoring along with some peripherals. Luol Deng has been on the decline the last two seasons, but he came into training camp healthy after suffering a stress fracture last season and is a potential sleeper in Fantasy leagues due to the way his stock has fallen. He did average 17-6-2 just two seasons ago and the Bulls will be looking to him to help fill some of the scoring void left by Gordon's departure. The front court should feature a lot of Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah and Brad Miller with Noah able to play a lot at both positions. Miller and Noah were able to co-exist in a very functional way last season and we view both players as suitable No. 2 centers in standard formats. The fact they split time could scare many owners away, making each player a good value to wait on in the later rounds. We are all still waiting on that big breakout year from Thomas and this could be the year we see stability from him. He should see around 30 minutes per game this year and could see around 10 shot attempts per game for the first time in his career. If his scoring climbs from 10.8 points per game to even, say 13 points game, we could be looking at a well-rounded regular Fantasy starter who offers elite block numbers, good rebounding and over a steal per game. He's a great mid-round target in category-based play and a potential breakout candidate.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Possible Starters: PG Mo Williams, SG Delonte West, SF LeBron James, PF Anderson Varejao, C Shaquille O'Neal
Preseason storylines: How will Shaq fit in? What happens to Zydrunas Ilgauskas? Can Anthony Parker beat out Delonte West?
Fantasy Analysis: Shaq comes to Cleveland in an effort to help LeBron James win a title. After a resurgent season in Phoenix last season, Shaq proved that he can still be a force after looking worn down and uninterested in Miami, but most of all he proved he can stay healthy. The Cavaliers will be looking to keep him healthy again this season and that will mean keeping his minutes in check and keeping him out of back-to-back games. Having Big Z around will allow them to play it safe with Shaq and that could be beneficial to both veteran big men. Ilgauskas has accepted his role as a back up and while his days as a regular starting center in Fantasy are over as a result of Shaq's presence, we can't think of a better handcuff option for Shaq owners. Targeting Shaq and Big Z in the middle rounds should secure you suitable No. 2 center production all season. If Shaq goes down, just plug in Big Z. As for West, he is coming off an eventful offseason that included an arrest on weapons charges and then a two-day unexcused absence from training camp. West deals with Bipolar disorder and has had a history of similar incidents. The team added ex-Raptor Anthony Parker in the offseason, a player that can push West for minutes. Parker is a player who can play the two and the three, giving them a capable option at small forward when the team wants to give LeBron James a breather. West does not have that ability and that could ultimately allow him to maintain the starting role at shooting guard, allowing Parker to fill in at both positions off the bench. It will be an interesting battle to keep an eye on in the preseason. Oh, and that LeBron James guy is pretty good. You should pick him for your Fantasy team if you have the chance.
Detroit Pistons
Possible Starters: PG Rodney Stuckey, SG Richard Hamilton, SF Tayshaun Prince, PF Charlie Villanueva, C Kwame Brown
Preseason storylines: Who will start at shooting guard? Who will start at center?
Fantasy Analysis: The Pistons have one of the more interesting position battles heading into the season. They signed Ben Gordon as a free agent in the offseason and they will have to decide whether or not to start him over Richard Hamilton. Gordon has a history of being a successful player off the bench as he was the NBA Sixth Man Award winner as a rookie. Hamilton did not fare well as a reserve last season as the Allen Iverson experiment failed. Our estimation is that Hamilton starts and Gordon comes off the bench, but Gordon will remain the player to go after in Fantasy drafts. Hamilton should remain a viable starter, but the possibility for a decline in numbers is greater for him. Keep close tabs on how this relationship develops in the preseason. At center, the battle is not quite as interesting but is still worth noting. The Pistons have three options: Kwame Brown, Ben Wallace and Chris Wilcox. We like Wilcox as a real sleeper in Fantasy leagues this year, but he'll have to win the job with a strong preseason and did not head into camp as the leading candidate to win the job. Wilcox has the best offensive upside of the three, but the team is not really looking to get much scoring out of the five spot. Wallace is the best defensive presence, but is worn down and no longer the player he was in his first go-around with the Pistons. Kwame Brown offers a little (very little) of both offense and defense and could be the sensible choice as the starter, but all three players would rotate. Fantasy owners should be rooting for Wilcox in this battle as he is a player that could average double digits in scoring with around seven rebounds per game under the right conditions (he averaged 13.4 points and 7.0 rebounds as recently as the 2007-08 season). There is real sleeper value there.
Indiana Pacers
Possible Starters: PG T.J. Ford, SG Dahntay Jones, SF Danny Granger, PF Troy Murphy, C Jeff Foster
Preseason storylines: Who will win the starting jobs at center and shooting guard?
Fantasy Analysis: The biggest of the two position battles -- from a Fantasy standpoint anyway -- is at center. The Pacers have a young, promising center in Roy Hibbert with some upside, but he will have to beat out an established veteran in Jeff Foster. Foster's numbers aren't much to look at (though he does offer around seven boards per game), but he does get the job done as a capable defensive presence. Hibbert is a player that did well when given playing time as a rookie, but he has to prove he can take on more than the 14.4 minutes per game he averaged a year ago. He is a solid shot blocker and would be a lock to score in double figures if he were to get around 25-30 minutes per game. If he can win the job, we could be looking at one of the bigger breakout candidates among centers. The position battle at shooting guard is between Dahntay Jones -- a defensive specialist -- and Brandon Rush. Jones could win the job as a place-filler with the starting unit and he'll get decent minutes guarding the opposing team's best perimeter player, but Rush is a player who averaged 16.3 points and 5.1 rebounds in 16 games as a starting shooting guard a year ago. Here's hoping Jones doesn't cut into his playing time too much.
Milwaukee Bucks
Possible Starters: PG Luke Ridnour, SG Michael Redd, SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, PF Hakim Warrick, C Andrew Bogut
Preseason storylines: How will the starting lineup shake out?
Fantasy Analysis: The Bucks have several options to go with at small forward and power forward with a variety of players who can play either spot. We expect a lot of rotating between Mbah a Moute, Warrick, Joe Alexander, Amir Johnson and Ersan Ilyasova. Fantasy owners should pay close attention to how the Bucks lineup shakes out. Warrick and Mbah a Moute have the best offensive upside of the players vying for spots and Warrick has been a player that has been able to contribute significantly when given regular playing time. He has double-digit scoring ability with good rebounding presence and is the player who Fantasy owners should be rooting for here this preseason. He averaged 22.5 points and 9.6 rebounds per 48 minutes last year.
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