2009-10 Draft Prep: Southwest Division Preview

Heading into the start of the NBA preseason, we offer a team-by-team look, including projected starting lineups and what to watch for in October as each team sets their rotations for the start of the regular season on Oct. 27.

Dallas Mavericks

Possible Starters: PG Jason Kidd, SG Josh Howard, SF Shawn Marion, PF Dirk Nowitzki, C Erick Dampier
Preseason storylines: Can Shawn Marion return to prominence?
Fantasy Analysis: Shawn Marion was once one of the most sought after players in Fantasy hoops -- especially in Rotisserie leagues. But since leaving the Phoenix Suns behind he has become more of a role player on Fantasy rosters. He will once again be paired up with an elite point guard in Dallas with Jason Kidd being the best point guard he has played with since leaving Steve Nash, so the possibility of an offensive resurgence exists. However, the days of 'The Matrix' are likely a thing of the past and he'll have to defer to the likes of Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. Look to see if he can be enough of a presence that the Mavericks could look to get him anywhere between 13-15 shot attempts per game again. He averaged just over 10 shots per game with Miami last season and just under 13 shots per game with Toronto, where he was paired up with a good point guard in Jose Calderon.

Houston Rockets

Possible Starters: PG Aaron Brooks, SG Shane Battier, SF Trevor Ariza, PF Carl Landry, C Luis Scola
Preseason storylines: What do the Rockets have to offer?
Fantasy Analysis: One glance at the starting lineup the Rockets are looking at going into the season and it looks like it's going to be a long season in Houston -- or should we say a short one? Injuries to the team's two franchise players and the loss of Ron Artest via free agency have really put this team behind the 8-ball. They won't have Yao Ming at all this season after he suffered a career-threatening injury and Tracy McGrady won't be back likely until February (though there is a small chance he could return by late December). They tried to acquire free agent centers like Marcin Gortat to help fill the Yao void, but failed. Now, they'll have to rotate players like Luis Scola and stand-ins like David Andersen and hope for the best. But just because the Rockets may not win many games this season doesn't mean they can't help Fantasy owners to win in their own leagues. Often times, it's teams like this that create the sleepers and best values in Fantasy. Even a bad team will average around 90 points per game and they'll have to come from somewhere. The main scoring candidates on the roster are Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola, and both players are considered breakout candidates as a result of their situation. But keep a close eye on the Rockets in the preseason for signs of other breakouts. Kyle Lowry is a young player with some mild offensive upside. Rookie Chase Budinger averaged 18 points per game as a junior for Arizona last season. A team like the Rockets may be the best place to look for spare parts.

Memphis Grizzlies

Possible Starters: PG Mike Conley, SG O.J. Mayo, SF Rudy Gay, PF Zach Randolph, C Marc Gasol
Preseason storylines: Can Allen Iverson make it as a backup? Who will lose offensive touches?
Fantasy Analysis: The Grizzlies are filled with young talent and have a real strong vision for the future. However, it is a couple of veterans that will be worth keeping an eye on in the preseason. Allen Iverson told just about every team in the NBA that he isn't a bench player, but alas will come off the Grizzlies bench this season. He struggled mightily in that role with Detroit last season, but will be looking at it from a different perspective this season. He felt he was slighted by the Pistons last season and may have been, but this year he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder trying to prove he can still be an elite player. He'll have to fight away shot attempts from a player who could challenge for the scoring title throughout his career in O.J. Mayo, and he'll likely have to play a bit of a mentor role as well. In the front court, Zach Randolph will join his fourth team in the last four years. His talent is rarely questioned, but his attitude always is and it will be interesting to see how he will fit into a team that doesn't consider him the centerpiece. He averaged over 17 shots per game last season both with the Clippers and Knicks, but will find that many shot attempts hard to come by on a team that has so many scoring options (Mayo, Gay, Iverson). Look to see if Randolph has the right attitude going into the season and if the Grizzlies feel the need to feed him the ball to keep him happy.

New Orleans Hornets

Possible Starters: PG Chris Paul, SG James Posey, SF Julian Wright, PF David West, C Emeka Okafor
Preseason storylines: Can Julian Wright maintain a starting job? What will happen at shooting guard? Will Emeka Okafor improve?
Fantasy Analysis: The Hornets are hoping to make third-year player Julian Wright into a starter full-time this season with Peja Stojakovic providing offense off the bench. In 17 games as a starting forward last season, Wright averaged 7.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and over a steal per game. He has some upside and is a player that can take off if given around 30 minutes per game, but the Hornets will have to balance his playing time with that of the veteran sharpshooter Stojakovic. This approach could help to keep Stojakovic healthy for the long haul, but his days as a regular Fantasy starter appear to be over. He's become merely a specialist for category-based leagues for his help in threes and a reserve option in Head-to-Head play. Stojakovic is also an option at shooting guard, where the Hornets have some options. They don't have a real strong starter at the two spot after losing Rasual Butler to the Clippers in the offseason. James Posey is a swingman who provides good defense and can chip in some offensively, but is better as a player who comes off the bench. Morris Peterson played his way out of the starting job last season and doesn't offer much, but the team should do a lot of rotating at the position. The preseason could give some insight into what coach Byron Scott plans to do at the position. The picture is a lot clearer at center, where Emeka Okafor will be looking to develop a rapport with his new point guard Chris Paul in the preseason. Expect to see some alley-oops in the preseason that could be the start of an offensive breakout year for Okafor.

San Antonio Spurs

Possible Starters: PG Tony Parker, SG Roger Mason, Jr., SF Richard Jefferson, PF Antonio McDyess, C Tim Duncan
Preseason storylines: Who will the Spurs use at center? Are the big three (or four) healthy?
Fantasy Analysis: This may be the biggest storyline Fantasy owners will want to follow in the preseason, as it could have a huge impact in Commissioner leagues that allow players to gain eligibility during the season. Duncan is a forward-only eligible player going in, but depending on whether or not the team uses Duncan or McDyess at center, he could wind up picking up the ever-valuable center position by the second week of the Fantasy season. To gain the position, he'll have to start five games at center. Look for clues in the preseason as far as who is listed as the starting center and who is listed as the starting power forward. We think there is a strong possibility Duncan will be used as a center this season and he'd be a top-5 option the second he gains eligibility there. The only other thing to monitor in the preseason here is whether or not the team's big three of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili (or now big four with Jefferson) are healthy. Duncan took a different approach in the offseason to try to come into camp healthy and he showed up 15 pounds leaner. He said he did it so that he doesn't break down like he did toward the end of last season. He wants to avoid having to sit out games to stay healthy. He is healthy going in. As for Ginobili, he is coming off a season in which he played just 44 games due to a bum ankle. He did not participate in any action with the Argentine national team this offseason as he has done in years past and he has talked about changing his approach to include more mid-range shots and less wreckless driving to the basket. He is healthy going into the season as well, but look to see if a change in approach will limit his statistical production. We don't think it will. Parker, on the other hand, did play for his native France in the offseason and suffered injuries to his ankle. The Spurs are looking to ease him along in the preseason in order to have him fresh for the start of the season. He should be fine, but monitor him for setbacks. Jefferson suffered a thumb injury in a workout just prior to the start of training camp, but is expected to be fine. He has not missed a game in the last two years.

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