It's always nice to have fallback options. In Fantasy, we call them sleepers. You know, those players that you have in the back of your mind (and in your queue) while drafting.
Going into Fantasy drafts, owners should have a working list of players they know will be available to them late in drafts. Call it your 'sleepers' list. This list should be different than your 'breakouts' list, which consists of playersw to take in the middle rounds who could put up early-round numbers. Sleepers are players who will be drafted mostly as reserves or as low-end starters who could wind up making a significant impact on your Fantasy roster this season.
So what makes a good sleeper candidate?
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The number one thing to look for in a sleeper in Fantasy hoops is their prospects for playing time. Minutes turn into stats, so you will want to pay close attention to the way coaches say they will rotate their players. Often, a player who had minimal value on one team will head to a different team and flourish due to the very simple fact that they start getting more run. An example of a player like this is J.R. Smith, who was once an afterthought in New Orleans and has taken off since joining the Nuggets. At one point, Smith was a sleeper.
After determining a potential sleeper's possibility for playing time, the next thing you want to look at is their upside. Has this player been able to put up numbers in the past when given playing time? Check out situational stats on player pages to see their numbers as a starter if they've had some starts in the past. Look into their production per 48 minutes, a very telling stat. Ramon Sessions is an example of a player who, if you tracked his production in limited playing time, would have raised a 'potential sleeper' flag prior to his becoming a terrific Fantasy option last season.
Look at players on bad teams. They may not win a lot of games, but they are usually a breeding ground for cheap Fantasy values. While many of the better teams in the league have very defined roles and you pretty much know who the viable Fantasy options are, bad teams are going to have more opportunities for players to step up and perform. It's highly unlikely we will see a player come out of nowhere for the Lakers this season, but we could easily have players break out for teams like the Rockets, Kings and Nets.
But perhaps the best thing you can do is simply to pay attention. Check out preseason box scores for standout performances, read updates for news on potential changes in values and watch games on your own to scout players that make you think, "If that guy gets a chance, he could put up some numbers."
Odds are, at some point over the course of a long 82-game season, they'll get that chance.
Here is a look at our working list of top potential sleepers heading into the season:
The Forwards
Anthony Randolph, Warriors: Coach Don Nelson, a notorious source of Fantasy headaches, wants to give Randolph a chance to start to begin the year. He's a player that has contributed in spurts when given playing time and could turn out to be a huge steal if he finds a way to stick in Nelson's erratic rotation (which easier said than done). His numbers per 48 minutes last season were particularly impressive: 21.2 ppg, 15.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 3.1 bpg, 1.8 spg.
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| With very few scoring options, the Rockets will likely lean heavily on Trevor Ariza. (Getty Images) |
Julian Wright, Hornets: Coach Byron Scott is looking to Wright as his starting small forward to begin the season as the team moves veteran Peja Stojakovic to a bench role. Wright is another one of those players who has put up numbers in the past when given a chance to play and he'll get significant playing time this season for the first time in his career. He averaged over 14 points and nine boards per 48 minutes a season ago. One game in particular proved that he could be a significant contributor. He scored 20 points with seven boards, three assists, a three-pointer, a steal and a block in 34 minutes last March 7 against Oklahoma City with Stojakovic injured.
Brandon Bass, Magic: Bass showed at times last season with the Mavericks that he could put up numbers. He averaged 20.9 points and 11.2 rebounds per 48 minutes and posted four double-doubles despite not starting a single game. This season, he'll have a chance to start at power forward for the Magic and could see an increase in minutes per game. He averaged 19.4 minutes as a bench player for the Mavericks last season.
Danilo Gallinari, Knicks: First off, he plays for Mike D'Antoni, which automatically makes him a Fantasy sleeper. On top of that, he is expected to play a prominent role in the Knicks rotation and could even find himself in the starting lineup at some point. Gallinari, who had a lost rookie season due to a lingering back injury last year, is considered a sharp shooter and could see many plays designed to get him open for jumpers over the course of the season. In category-based play, Gallinari could find himself among the league leaders in threes under the right conditions. He'll have to prove it first, but that's why they call them sleepers.
The Guards
Courtney Lee, Nets: Bad team? Check. Added playing time? Check. History of productivity? Check. Upside? Check. Lee fits most of the characterstics of a sleeper and is one of our favorite late-round guard targets in Fantasy drafts this season. The Nets traded away Vince Carter to Orlando in the deal that brought Lee to the Nets and have no real scoring options outside of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. Lee, who produced solid numbers in 42 games as a starter last season (10-3-1-1-0) will start for the Nets and will be looked upon to shoulder a bigger scoring role this year. He'll be available to you as a reserve or as a low-end starter, but could be a No. 2 or 3 guard if he pans out. He averaged 16.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.8 steals per 48 minutes last year.
Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets: Douglas-Roberts is in the same situation as Lee heading into the season and is another option the Nets could rely upon offensively. He's already shown signs of being productive in the preseason, scoring 20, 12 and 19 points through his first three preseason contests. While we often warn owners not to read too much into inflated preseason numbers, the Nets seem to be using CDR in the same role they plan on using him in the regular season. If that's the case, expect double-digit shot attempts for the former Memphis standout.
Brandon Rush, Pacers: This one is a little tricky. The basic characteristics of a sleeper do not apply to Rush as he is actually losing a starting job entering the season. While Dahntay Jones should enter the season as the starting shooting guard for the Pacers in the absence of injured guard Mike Dunleavy, Jr., he offers little to no offensive upside and will be used mostly as a defensive specialist. When the team needs to score, it will still be Rush that the team goes to at the off guard spot. Rush averaged 16.3 points and 5.1 rebounds in 16 games as a starting shooting guard last season with nearly two threes per game. The presence of Jones should allow him to fall late in drafts.
Chris Duhon, Knicks: Apply the D'Antoni rule here. Duhon tailed in the second half of last season, but he was a Fantasy hero in the first half. He was one of our sleeper candidates heading into last season and it paid off well, averaging 12.5 points, 8.0 assists and 3.6 rebounds with over a steal per game through the All-Star break. His second-half swoon (8.6 ppg, 5.6 apg, 2.1 rpg) will make him fall to the late rounds again, but Fantasy owners could get his first half numbers. He could be a sell-high candidate if he gets off to another start, though.
The Centers
Roy Hibbert, Pacers: There is a very strong chance that the Pacers will choose to start the second-year big man from onening night and he's had some very strong performances already this preseason. He scored 20 points with 11 rebounds (and eight blocks!) on Oct. 8 and dropped 21 points with nine rebounds (and four blocks) on Oct. 11 in two games against the Nuggets. The Pacers like the veteran presence they get from Jeff Foster, but Hibbert's upside is too hard to ignore at this point. We could be talking about a borderline breakout candidate here. At the weak center position, you may even want to think about taking Hibbert in the middle rounds.
Channing Frye, Suns: There isn't as much upside here as there is with Hibbert, but Frye is returning to the state where he shined as a college player for the Arizona Wildcats. The Suns are going to try their best to keep Amar'e Stoudemire at his more comfortable power forward position and Frye offers them a viable option at the five. Frye has been a productive Fantasy option in the past, though his most productive year came as a rookie with the Knicks in 2005-06 when he averaged 12.3 points and 5.7 rebounds. He got off to a strong start this preseason, including a game in which he scored 19 points with eight boards, two threes and a block against the Warriors. Frye could be a solid matchup center to be used when playing the likes of the Warriors and Kings, teams he will play often.
Brendan Haywood/JaVale McGee, Wizards: McGee has had some solid games in the preseason, scoring in double figures, blocking shots and even picking up some steals while Haywood has been dealing with an ankle injury. Haywood will resume his starting job after missing most of last season due to a wrist injury, but McGee proved useful in spurts last season while filling in at center and showed signs of promise. If Haywood can't return to form this season, McGee could be there to pick up the pieces. Whoever wins out here could be a viable No. 2 Fantasy center option this season.
Chris Wilcox, Pistons: The Pistons will not be looking to Wilcox for major minutes to start out this season, but Fantasy owners should not write him completely off just yet. Here is a player that averaged 13.4 points and 7.0 rebounds as recently as the 2007-08 season and the Knicks aren't particularly stacked at center. His main competition for minutes this year will be aging Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown. He's worth taking a late-round flier on in larger leagues and would absolutely be worth scooping up if he found himself playing even 20-25 minutes per game.
The Rookies
We aren't talking about Blake Griffin or Stephen Curry here, we're talking about rookies who should be available to you late in drafts ...
Tyreke Evans, Kings: He could win a starting job out of the preseason and is going to be playing on a team building for the future. He could average double figures in scoring with decent rebound and assist numbers and around a steal per game as a rookie.
DeMar DeRozan, Raptors: He had a strong summer league showing and has carried that over to the preseason. He should win the starting job at shooting guard in Toronto and could see 25-30 minutes per game this season as a possible double-digit scorer.
Chase Budinger, Rockets: Budinger has opened some eyes in the preseason with excellent outside shooting and could be a player the Rockets look to stretch out opposing defenses. Again, the Rockets don't have many scoring options on paper.
Terrence Williams, Nets: Williams is a versatile young player the Nets could use in a variety of ways. He could play some at the two or the three and is a wild card as a scorer off the bench.
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