2009-10 Draft Prep: Breakouts for Draft Day
To win a Fantasy title, owners need to get a lot out of their early round picks. But it's the production they get out of mid-to-late rounders who outperform their draft value that really makes the difference between a mediocre team and a contender.
So you have LeBron James on your team? Great, good for you. That's amazing. Someone else likely has Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant or Dwyane Wade on their team, however, and it's those picks in the middle and late rounds that will make the difference between which team fights to the end and which team falls short. That's where breakout players come in.
What is a breakout player?
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A breakout player, in Fantasy talk, is a player who has already established some measure of Fantasy appeal in the past, but who is ready to make the leap from a middle-of-the-road option to a high-end one. It is a player who will be drafted as a low-end starter or reserve and becomes a high-end starter. These are next year's early-round picks.
Take last season, for example.
Going into last season, Devin Harris was considered a solid Fantasy option. He was drafted as a mid-round pick in most leagues coming off a season in which he averaged 14.8 points and 5.8 assists to 21.3 points and 6.9 assists along with jumps in other areas. It is a leap that will have him going in the early rounds of all Fantasy drafts this season.
The trick to winning your Fantasy league this season will be to find this year's Harris or David Lee or Rajon Rondo.
Here is a look at our favorite breakout candidates this season by position:
The Forwards
Jason Thompson, Kings: Thompson may be our favorite breakout candidate this season. Last year, he averaged 11.1 points and 7.4 rebounds as a rookie. He'll have a starting job and is expected to see an increase in playing time, which means he'll average over 30 minutes per game this season. Along with the added playing time will come an increase in stats across the board. The Kings are a team in rebuilding mode and Thompson is one of their key building blocks. Expect them to do their best to develop their young power forward. Typically, NBA players enjoy their biggest boost in production from their first season to their second and Thompson could be looking at a stat line around 15 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 block with half a steal and a 50 percent field-goal percentage. That would likely have him going in the first few rounds the following year.
Thaddeus Young, 76ers: Young is heading into his third NBA season, so he's likely already seen the biggest boost in production he'll see as he went from 8.2 points and 4.2 rebounds as a rookie to 15.3 points and 5.1 rebounds last season. We feel there is still more room for him to grow this season in new coach Eddie Jordan's Princeton offense. Young is expected to see an increase in minutes this season -- likely around 35 per game -- and could be looking at 17 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.5 steals and around a three pointer per game. Young could play the role Caron Butler played for Jordan in Washington -- a role that turned Butler into a Fantasy stud.
Tyrus Thomas, Bulls: We've seen the potential from Thomas, a player who was drafted fourth overall in the 2006 NBA Draft and then traded for LaMarcus Aldridge. We've seen Aldridge develop into a high-round pick in Fantasy, but we've only seen staggered glimpses of what Thomas is capable of doing in his first three seasons. He got better as the year went on last fall. He averaged 9.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.8 blocks and 1.1 steal prior to the All Star break and saw his production jump to 12.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.2 steals per game. We could see him continue along the same progression this season as he starts to enter the prime of his career.
Luis Scola, Rockets: The Rockets are in dire need of some production up front after losing Yao Ming for the season before it even started. The team tried desperately to acquire some help via free agency, but failed. So they will have to look from within to fill the void and the primary candidate to see a big boost in production is Scola. He averaged 12.7 points and 8.8 rebounds last season, and those numbers will almost undoubtedly go up if he can stay healthy this season. We would not be surprised to see him average 15-and-10 this season. You won't get many blocks out of him, but an increase in playing time could lead to a steal per game. You want this year's David Lee? This could be your best bet.
The Guards
Aaron Brooks, Rockets: Just like Scola, Brooks will have to step up his game this season due to another major absence in Houston. Tracy McGrady is not expected to be around for the first two months of the season and possibly longer. Brooks averaged 11.2 points and 3.0 assists in his second NBA season last fall, but take a look at the numbers he averaged last March after McGrady went down with his injury: 14.9 points, 3.6 assists, 1.4 rebounds, 0.7 steals with just 1.8 turnovers (a low turnover rate for a point guard). The added confidence he earned in the final two-and-a-half months last season should go a long way in helping Brooks offer much needed offensive production for the Rockets out of the back court.
Rodney Stuckey, Pistons: The Pistons got rid of Allen Iverson in the offseason and brought in Ben Gordon. While it's clear Gordon is going to be a big part of the team's offensive plans this year, he does not have the ability Iverson has as a point guard and won't be cutting into Stuckey's minutes as much as he will Richard Hamilton's. Stuckey is entering his third NBA season, but just his second as a full-time starter, and he should be able to improve upon the 13.4 points, 4.9 assists and 3.5 rebounds he averaged last year due to his added experience. Expect him to be around 15-6-4 with over a steal per game and a low turnover rate for a point guard.
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| Ramon Sessions should hit the ground running with his new team. (Getty Images) |
Ramon Sessions, Timberwolves: Sessions has been a Fantasy monster at times already in his brief NBA career when given the chance for a significant role. He'll have just that in Minnesota as he enters the year as a featured starter for the first time in an NBA career that started in the NBDL. The Timberwolves acquired him after learning that Ricky Rubio would remain in Spain for the next couple of seasons and like his versatility in the back court. He can play the point and off the ball and will provide them with a way to ease rookie Jonny Flynn into the fray this year. If Flynn struggles, Sessions will play the point. If Flynn progresses, Sessions will play off the ball. One way or another, Sessions should see 30-plus minutes over the course of a season for the first time in his career. Last season in Milwaukee he averaged 30-plus minutes in three different months. Check out his production in those months: 15.6 points, 5.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds (17 games, November), 18.5 points, 7.4 assists, 4.1 rebounds (17 games, January) and 14.0 points, 10.4 assists and 5.0 rebounds (7 games, April).
The Centers
Brook Lopez, Nets: This one isn't flying under the radar, as Lopez has been going in the first five rounds of most Fantasy drafts. We just want to endorse him as a breakout candidate and say that we support your choice to make him an early-round pick this year. By this time next year, we could be talking about a first or second rounder in most leagues if he has the type of year we are anticipating. He averaged 13.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.0 assists and 1.8 turnovers as a rookie. He will have to be a heavily featured part of the team's offense with very little offensive fire power on paper for the Nets this year now that Vince Carter is in Orlando. That means he should see a big increase over the 13 points per game he averaged a year ago. We think he could be anywhere from 17-20 points per game. The minutes will increase and so should the rebounds. Since he already averaged 8.1 boards as a rookie, we could be looking at close to 10 per game this year. He could also approach two blocks per game all while turning the ball over at a very low rate compared to the likes of Dwight Howard and Amar'e Stoudemire for example. He also shoots free throws at around 80 percent and should post a 50-plus field-goal percentage. This is a future first-rounder.
Andrea Bargnani, Raptors: Bargnani is coming off a season in which he finally justified being selected as the first overall player in the 2006 draft. He averaged 15.4 points and 5.3 rebounds with 1.5 threes and 1.2 blocks per game. He had a very strong second half last season, averaging 19.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.7 blocks. We could see him approach those numbers over the course of an entire season for the first time this year.
Spencer Hawes, Kings: Hawes is another player who had a strong second half last season, averaging 14 points and 8.5 rebounds and implying that he is ready to arrive as a No. 1 caliber center this season. What was the difference in the second half last season? He didn't have Brad Miller to contend with as he was traded to Chicago. If Hawes only repeats what he did in the second half last season, he'll have a breakout season. But the third-year center has the upside to do even more.
Greg Oden, Trail Blazers: Don't give up on Oden just yet. We've seen in the past with players like Amar'e Stoudemire that it isn't until a player's second year after microfracture surgery that they can get back to full strength. That could be the case with Oden this year, coming off two very frustrating years to begin his NBA career. He showed signs of the promise that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 NBA Draft in spurts last season, but could not maintain it over any prolonged stretches. He was playing with restraints, limited to around 20 minutes per game. That could change drastically this season and his numbers would see a dramatic increase as a result. He has shown signs of being ready for a breakout campaign in the preseason, averaging 14.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 22.3 minutes per game.
Do you have a draft prep question for our staff? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyBasketball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
