If anything can kill your chances of winning a Fantasy title, it is players who don't perform at the level that you were hoping for when you drafted them. Fantasy owners know these guys as busts, though their could also be a few other choice names involved.
The term bust is a dirty word in the world of Fantasy sports. It implies that a player "blew up" in your face as many times Fantasy owners can trace failures to specific players they overvalued in their drafts. But the definition of what makes a bust can be a little cloudy. We'll try to clear that up for you.
When we label a player as a possible bust, we are not necessarily saying that the player will be complete failure. These players are not all of a sudden going to trip over their shoelaces on the court and be complete duds. In fact, in most cases, these players will still be useful in Fantasy. They just won't put up the types of numbers you drafted them to produce. It's the case of a No. 1 forward or guard putting up numbers of a No. 3 or 4 option.
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So we are not telling you to avoid drafting these players. Not at all. These are players that we think are risky picks where they are being selected by most Fantasy owners. That's why we'll offer their average draft position, the reasoning as to why they are risky picks at that point and the round that we think -- if they fall that low -- you shouldn't hesitate to draft them.
Al Jefferson, C, Timberwolves
Average Draft Position: 13.95
Analysis: We love what Al Jefferson can do for Fantasy owners when he is healthy. He offers elite points, rebounds and blocks and gives you decent free-throw shooting for a big man along with a good shooting percentage and minimal turnovers. If he plays even 70 games this season, he'll be worthy of selecting in the first or second round in any league. However, he is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and is already a little banged up going into the season with Achilles' tendonitis. While Jefferson is worth taking a risk on, it may be best to let him be someone else's headache unless he falls too far. Losing your first or second round pick for a big chunk of the season is usually too hard to overcome.
No longer a risk in: Round 3
Kevin Garnett, F, Celtics
Average Draft Position: 28.45
Analysis: Since joining the Celtics, Garnett's numbers have declined. That's not to say he isn't still a premiere player in the NBA, but the days when he averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists and around 2 blocks per game are over. He has not averaged as much as 19 points in Boston (he went from 18.8 to 15.8 last season) and has failed to average double-digit rebounds (averaging 8.5 last season). Some of that is the result of him being on a team that does not rely on him as much as the Timberwolves to do everything for them since they have options around him. But it also has to do with age. Garnett played in just 57 games (his lowest career total) last season due to injury and the goal is now just to get him through the season healthy for the playoffs. We've included him as a possible bust each of the last two seasons and he has in fact underperformed his average draft position. In 2007-08, he was drafted as a mid-first rounder, but performed like a second rounder. In 2008-09, he was drafted as a second rounder and performed like a third or fourth rounder (while healthy). This season, he is being drafted as a mid-to-late second rounder and we feel the probability that he will perform to that level is slim. He should not be going ahead of players like his own teammate Paul Pierce, or Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge just to name a couple. Unless he falls to you somewhere in Round 4, which is unlikely due to his name and track record, let him go to someone else.
No longer a risk: Late Round 4
Zach Randolph, F/C, Grizzlies
Average Draft Position: 32.78
Analysis: Randolph is a very intriguing player in Fantasy drafts this season. He has the ability to put up monster numbers (20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds last season), but he has a history of being a bit of an attitude problem. That's part of the reason that, despite his production, he has been on four teams in the last four years. He heads into a new environment in Memphis this season where he will have to share the ball with other proven scorers with O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay and Allen Iverson (when healthy). That's a lot of mouths to feed and could work negatively in two ways against Randolph as it could water down his performance and cause him to become angry with the amount of touches he gets. That could lead to trouble. Now, considering his upside and the fact that he is eligible at center in leagues that allow multiple eligibility, he is certainly worth the risk. But where? Round 4 seems like a reasonable price for him, considering the risk involved.
No longer a risk: Round 4
Vince Carter, G, Magic
Average Draft Position: 41.85
Analysis: Carter will win a lot more games in Orlando this season than he would have in New Jersey, but he'll have to pay for it with his production. He goes from being the clear, go-to scoring option in New Jersey to being part of a three-headed monster that includes MVP candidate Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. Carter averaged around 17 shots per game the last four seasons in New Jersey, but he could see that number drop to around 14-15 shots per game this year -- and possibly lower. That could lead to his first sub-20 ppg season since his rookie year. That means you could be drafting a No. 1 Fantasy guard who could be in line for No. 2 production.
No longer a risk: Round 5
Ben Gordon, G, Pistons
Average Draft Position: 44.27
Analysis: The Pistons acquired Gordon to be a scoring presence for them this season, but that will come off the bench. Gordon has thrived as a bench player in the past, winning the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award as a rookie and playing that role often in his career with the Bulls. However, he's never had to split time with a shooting guard like Richard Hamilton before and the veteran made it quite clear last season with Allen Iverson around that he's not too into sharing. Gordon should still get his minutes and shot attempts, but a real possibility exists that he won't get as many looks as he did in Chicago, causing a decline in his overall production. He can still be thought of as a quality Fantasy guard, but the possibility for a dip in scoring means you should let him fall a little further than the fourth round before selecting him, using that fourth round pick on a Russell Westbrook, Kevin Martin or another position entirely. It's only the preseason, but Gordon failed to score even 15 points in the four games he played 30-plus minutes (though he did score 20 points in two other games earlier in the preseason).
No longer a risk: Round 5
Andre Miller, G, Trail Blazers
Average Draft Position: 48.03
Analysis: Miller is heading into uncharted waters in Portland, both because he is going to be playing for a new team and because he is going to be playing a new role. The Trail Blazers will continue to start Steve Blake at point guard, using Miller as a sixth man off the bench. Miller says that when he agreed to sign with the Blazers, he was unaware that he would be a backup. Otherwise, he says, he would not have signed. The coach/player relationship hasn't gotten off to an ideal start in Portland and we could be looking at some inconsistency from Miller compared to what he has offered as a starter his entire career. Not everyone can adjust to a bench role and the results could lead to a decline in numbers across the board. He'll still be Fantasy worthy, but will he still be a No. 2 guard? There is enough doubt surrounding him that it's best to go with someone else unless Miller slips to you in Round 6.
No longer a risk: Round 6
Hedo Turkoglu, F, Raptors
Average Draft Position: 51.63
Analysis: Turkoglu isn't catching anybody by surprise anymore. He became a Fantasy darling two years ago with Orlando when he averaged 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists in a breakout campaign. He took a small step back last season, averaging just 16.8 points per game and he has parlayed that production into a nice contract with the Raptors. Now, he's paid and you never know how a player will adjust to his new circumstances. He could fall back to the numbers he had the season prior to his breakout (13.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists). Those numbers certainly would be of use, but are they worthy of a fourth or fifth round pick? The answer is no.
No longer a risk: Round 6
Paul Millsap, F, Jazz
Average Draft Position: 61.77
Analysis: Millsap is a Fantasy stud in the making, without a doubt. But he's going to have a tough time getting there while Carlos Boozer is still with the Jazz. Millsap has played extremely well the last two seasons while filling in for Boozer due to injuries (he averaged 16.0 points and 10.3 rebounds in 38 games as a starter) and it's the promise he has shown in those situations that has led to him being drafted as high as 38th overall in some CBSSports.com leagues. That's too high considering the fact he is going to be playing behind Boozer and Mehmet Okur as long as they are healthy. Given the chance for 35 minutes per game, he'd be worth a pick in the fifth round. But there simply isn't enough of a guarantee going into the season that will happen. It's not wise to invest so highly in a player that may not pan out at all this year.
No longer a risk: Round 7
Ron Artest, F/G, Lakers
Average Draft Position: 65.97
Analysis: Artest came to the Lakers to try to win a championship. As we have seen with many great players in the past, however, winning will take some sacrifice. For Artest, that will come in the form of his statistical production. We've seen it in Boston (Garnett, Pierce, Ray Allen) and even in Los Angeles with the Lakers (Lamar Odom). The more good players there are on a team, the more the touches get diluted and the more statistical production declines for individual players -- even if the overall production of the team improves. That's what Artest steps into this season and why we feel Artest could become a Fantasy headache this year. Artest still carries a good deal of value in Rotisserie or category-based play because of the way he contributes in all significant categories. But we are going to see Artest become more of a role player this year. His offensive touches will be split between himself and good friend Lamar Odom, with each of them suffering a decline in Fantasy production as a result. We're already seeing hints of a decline in the preseason, as Artest averaged just 8.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists in seven games. He won't be a complete dud and he'll have strong runs throughout the season, but to expect him to produce anything near the 17.1 points he averaged a year ago in Houston would be foolish.
No longer a risk: Round 7
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