Each week, Fantasy Basketball Writer Sergio Gonzalez takes a look at situations that Fantasy owners should monitor over the course of the upcoming week. Have a look at the top storylines in Fantasy hoops and how they might affect your team going forward.
Who were the three biggest first-half surprises in Fantasy hoops?
Zach Randolph, Grizzlies: Heading into Week 16, Randolph was the 14th highest-scoring player in Fantasy hoops in standard Head-to-Head formats. That's not too shabby for a guy who was drafted in the fourth or fifth round of most Fantasy leagues. Many Fantasy owners were concerned about a history of injuries and pouting with Randolph throughout his NBA career, but he seems to have found a comfort zone in Memphis, helping to turn the Grizzlies into a respectable team in the Western Conference. He is averaging 20.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game, all while behaving like a model teammate. Had anybody felt this confident in Zach heading into the season, he would have gone in the first or second round in all leagues.
Luol Deng, Bulls: Deng's Fantasy stock fell hard last season in an injury-shortened year where he averaged his lowest totals since his sophomore NBA campaign. In fact, it fell so low that his average draft position in Fantasy leagues this season was 102nd overall. That's a ninth-round pick in standard Fantasy leagues. But all he's done in the first half is average 17.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.1 assist and a steal and block per game, ranking him among the top 20 forwards in Fantasy hoops. In fact, he's outscored players like Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge and David West on a per-game basis. Those were all players who were drafted in the first few rounds in most leagues.
David Lee, Knicks: Nobody is surprised that Lee has been a prominent Fantasy option, he has been for few years now. The surprise here is how good Lee has been. Heading into Week 16, Lee ranked first in Head-to-Head Fantasy points among center-eligible players ahead of players like Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Al Jefferson, considered to be elite options at their position heading into the season. Lee, already having had what was believed to be his "breakout" year a season ago when he averaged 16.0 points and 11.8 rebounds, has taken his game to an even higher level this year by averaging 19.9 points and 11.4 rebounds with 3.5 assists and a steal per game. Just when everyone thought he'd reached his ceiling, he added a few more stories.
Who were the three biggest first-half disappointments in Fantasy hoops?
Devin Harris, Nets: Harris enjoyed his best NBA season a year ago in his first full season with New Jersey. He averaged 21.3 points per game to go with around seven assists and three rebounds per game, turning him into a No. 1-caliber guard in most Fantasy formats. It also made him a high-end Fantasy pick this fall, to the point where his average draft position was 16th overall -- making him a second-round pick in most Fantasy leagues. In most cases, he was the first guard selected by his Fantasy owners and while his overall numbers aren't horrible, they have not come close to living up to his draft value. He has totaled fewer Fantasy points than players of the caliber of Chris Duhon, Jarrett Jack and Corey Brewer.
Jose Calderon, Raptors: Much like Harris, Calderon came into the season with high expectations. But unlike Harris, Calderon has not even been able to offer his Fantasy owners numbers they'd feel comfortable starting on a regular basis. Calderon is currently only active in 34 percent of CBSSports.com leagues while coming off the bench in Toronto and getting around 25 minutes per game. That's certainly not what Fantasy owners had in mind for a player whose average draft position was 32nd overall.
Gilbert Arenas, Wizards: This one is pretty obvious. Arenas, while enjoying a renaissance season in Washington after two injury-riddled seasons, re-established himself as a high-end Fantasy contributor for the first two-plus months of the season only to find yet another way to leave Fantasy owners hanging -- for a third straight year.
Who have been the best values in Fantasy hoops so far?
Brandon Jennings, Bucks: His recent slump aside, Jennings is having an outstanding rookie season. He is averaging 17.1 points, 6.3 assists and 1.2 steals per game and already ranks among the elite guards in Fantasy. Heading into Week 16, he has totaled the 16th most Fantasy points among guards. Yet in Fantasy drafts this fall, he was available to Fantasy owners late in drafts, with an average draft position of 116th overall. Needless to say that anybody that was able to land Jennings somewhere in Round 10 has come away happy with the value.
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| Latest Gonzalez chat transcript (4/6) |
Tyreke Evans, Kings: Much like Jennings, Evans is a rookie who Fantasy owners weren't expecting a whole lot out of in his first NBA season. Sure, he was a popular late-round sleeper pick (in fact, he was one of our favorite rookie sleepers in our preseason draft prep coverage), but nobody expected the type of success he's managed through his first 45 games of the season. He ranks directly behind Jennings in overall Fantasy points among guards and was also available to Fantasy owners after the first 100 players went off the board.
Corey Maggette, Warriors: Unlike Jennings and Evans, Maggette had a solid NBA track record coming into the season. But after an injury-riddled 2008-09 season, Maggette saw his draft stock drop to its lowest point in years. Perhaps it dropped too low, as Maggette's average draft position was 105th overall despite the fact he averaged 18.6 points and 5.6 rebounds in 51 games last season. He has bettered those figures this year, averaging 20.8 points, 6.1 rebounds as well as 2.5 assists and just under a steal per game, ranking him among the top 20 options at forward in all of Fantasy hoops for most of the season.
Potential second-half heroes:
Jose Calderon, Raptors: Yes, Calderon was one of the biggest letdowns of the first half. But he was a disappointment because of the fact he has not lived up to his high-end ability. That ability is still there, even if the role in which he has put up those high-end numbers the past couple of seasons currently is not. Calderon has seen his playing time capped at around 25 minutes per game off the bench ever since returning from a hip injury in January, but that could all change. Coach Jay Triano is sticking with Jarrett Jack at the point with the Raptors winning games despite the fact that Jack's production hasn't been all that spectacular recently. Jack has been held under 10 points in four of his last six games and at the first sign of trouble for Toronto, we could see Calderon return to a prominent role again. If that happens, the high-end numbers could return.
Jason Thompson, Kings: Going into the season, we had Thompson pegged as a potential Fantasy breakout. For the first two full months of the season, he was living up to it. He averaged 15.3 points and 9.6 rebounds in November and 16.6 points with 8.9 rebounds in December before sputtering out in January. Changes in the Sacramento rotation due to the emergence of Omri Casspi and the return of Kevin Martin created a bit of a vacuum in the Kings' rotation where Thompson saw fewer minutes, fewer touches and his numbers suffered. The Kings are currently toying with the idea of moving Thompson to the bench, but eventually Thompson should find a comfortable role in the rotation. And even if he doesn't average 15 points and 10 rebounds per game like he was earlier in the season, he should be able to reward Fantasy owners for their patience.
Nate Robinson, Knicks: Unlike Calderon and Thompson, Robinson's coach knows exactly what role he has in mind for him the rest of the season. After moving Robinson into the starting point guard spot for two games last week, D'Antoni has decided to move Robinson back to the bench for good. He has decided that he no longer sees him as a point guard, but more a shooting guard who can contribute scoring off the bench in a sixth man role. That is more along the lines of what Robinson did for the Knicks last season when he averaged 17.2 points, 4.1 assists and 3.9 rebounds in 74 games (only 11 starts). D'Antoni is not happy with the way the team operates with Robinson at the point, but he is happy with the scoring that Robinson has been able to provide, eclipsing the 20-point mark in two of his last three games -- something he did quite regularly last year and could do again on a regular basis in the second half.
Do you have a Fantasy hoops question for our staff? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Fast Break in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. You can also now follow Sergio on Twitter ( @CBSGonzalez ) where he'll also answer questions.
