Will minor injuries cripple Fantasy title hopes?
With several teams having little or nothing to play for in the final days of the regular season, Fantasy owners should be shaking in their boots.
Beware the dreaded "late scratch" from here on out as teams either look to stay fresh for a playoff run or fade away into the offseason. The only way to prepare for the inevitable is to keep a close eye on the standings.
Eleven teams had been eliminated from playoff contention entering Week 23. The Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but neither is within six games with single-digit amount of games remaining. In other words, you can count 13 teams with little on the line.
Add to those teams the Cavaliers and Lakers, who are virtually cemented into the top seed in their respective conference, and we are up to 13 teams on cruise control. The Magic are just about locked into the second seed in the East and that makes 14 teams -- nearly half the NBA -- that has little or nothing to play for the rest of the way.
The Cavaliers and Lakers will both be looking to make it to the postseason in as good a shape as possible, so injured players like Andrew Bynum (Achilles') and Anderson Varejao (hamstring) will likely be treated with kid gloves. Don't expect to activate either player in Fantasy the rest of the way.
Magic guard Vince Carter (toe) has an injury that he could likely play through if it were the playoffs or even if it were a game in January or February, but his Fantasy owners should now be prepared to go a few games without him and possibly see a very limited version of him when he does play.
Owners of LeBron James or Kobe Bryant should also be prepared to see their top players sit out games on short notice the rest of the way. Coaches Mike Brown and Phil Jackson have each hinted at taking any chance they have to give their superstars a breather. They aren't players to be reserved, by any means, but don't think that because they are slated to play three or four games in a week, that's how many games they will play.
On the other side of things, Fantasy owners who have players on team without any chance of going to the playoffs should be even more fearful.
The Knicks, for instance, are unlikely to push Wilson Chandler (groin) back and are on the verge of shutting him down for the remainder of the season. If Andre Iguodala's foot injury causes him to limp too much during Week 23, owners can say bye-bye to Iggy. Baron Davis (back) also could easily have played his last game of the season.
Pistons forward/center Ben Wallace (knee) says he hopes to play again this season, but the general consensus is that it is highly unlikely. If Rodney Stuckey or Richard Hamilton were to suffer even the slightest setback to their ankle injuries, their season could be over as well.
The key to surviving, for Fantasy owners facing this dilemma, is knowing what players to add.
Adding Shannon Brown for Kobe owners in leagues that allow daily lineup changes is a must. Chandler owners who don't have access to Danilo Gallinari or Toney Douglas can look to Bill Walker for some short-term relief. Iguodala owners should look to stash Lou Williams (who is dealing with an injury bug of his own), Jrue Holiday or even Rodney Carney in deeper leagues.
Fantasy owners should also look to capitalize on Big Ben's absence with Jason Maxiell.
At this time of year, when a door is shut another door is opened for unproven players. Players like Ramon Sessions and Brandon Rush have become Fantasy heroes in the past in situations like this, so paying close attention to rotation changes the rest of the way could be the difference between winning a title and finishing just short.
You thought it would be LeBron or Kobe who'd win you the championship? Who knew it could be Douglas or Maxiell who'd win it for you.
A week after Chris Paul's return, what should Fantasy owners do about Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton?
Last week, the biggest storyline to monitor was how the Hornets' backcourt situation would be affected by the return of Paul.
The results were mixed. Paul came back, causing many Fantasy owners to avoid Collison and Thornton -- two players who emerged as high-end Fantasy options in Paul's absence -- only to see Paul struggle to produce and both Collison and Thornton post big weeks.
Going forward, Fantasy owners may still be confused.
The Hornets are one of those teams that have nothing left to play for this season, so the fact that they brought back Paul indicates to us that he's going to play his usual primary role. Paul wants to finish the season strong and limping to the finish line after missing a huge chunk of the season won't be the way he or the team will want to go out.
Paul's minutes will continue to rise and we expect a lot of the rust to finish shaking off in Week 23, allowing him to get back somewhere close to his usual CP3 numbers. That will leave fewer minutes for Collison and Thornton, creating the situation that Fantasy owners feared going into Fantasy Week 22.
Fantasy owners who feel Collison and Thornton are out of the woods may get a rude awakening in Week 23.
Collison is a more versatile option than Thornton. He is a playmaker and a distributor as well as a scorer, while Thornton is more of a pure off-the-ball two-guard. We think that could lead to Collison seeing more minutes as both Paul's backup off the bench and sidekick scorer in the backcourt.
Thornton, who is the better of the two scorers, could be left behind as a result. Or the reverse could happen, where Thornton's pure scoring ability allows him to play more minuets alongside Paul, leaving Collison's unnecessary play-making ability on the bench.
One way or another, we predict a shift in Fantasy value by the end of Week 23.
|
|
|
|
| Latest Gonzalez chat transcript (4/6) |
Can Beno Udrih be trusted with Tyreke Evans back?
In Week 23, Fantasy owners are dealing with a very similar situation to what owners of Paul, Thornton and Collison had to deal with in Week 22.
With Evans sidelined for five games, Udrih went from fringe Fantasy option to a No. 1 caliber guard. He averaged 18.2 points, 11.8 assists and 6.4 rebounds, playing 42.6 minutes per game while Evans sat out due to the effects of a concussion. With Evans getting cleared to return Tuesday night, Fantasy owners are not sure what to expect from Udrih in the final couple of scoring periods.
If there is one thing we learned from the Hornets' situation, it is not to give up on players all at once. Just because Evans is back does not mean Udrih will go back to posting erratic, pedestrian numbers.
When you consider the state of the Kings' rotation, with six players on the injury report going into Week 23, one has to realize that Sacramento still need Udrih to play a very significant role down the stretch.
Sure, 18-12-6 are too much to expect out of Udrih, but he is still going to be playing 35-40 minutes on most nights with the team's backcourt lacking any real depth. His shot attempts should remain in double digits, and as long as his playing time remains elevated, his assist and rebound numbers should stay at a respectable level.
We expect his numbers to be along the lines of 13-15 points per night with around 4-5 assists and 3-4 rebounds.
Is Channing Frye going to return to Fantasy prominence?
Frye was one of the pleasant surprises of the first half, becoming the top waiver wire option at center in the early going. However, the emergence of Robin Lopez since around the All-Star break caused Frye to be tossed aside in many leagues.
If he became available in your league, then you may want to scoop him up. A bulging disc in Lopez's back threatens to keep him out for the remainder of the regular season, and his absence will likely allow Frye to regain his standing as a reliable No. 2 Fantasy option.
While Jarron Collins is expected to get the majority of the starts the rest of the way, coach Alvin Gentry has indicated that will only be the case in order to keep his rotation intact. That rotation sees Frye get anywhere from 25-35 minutes off the bench, mostly playing when the Suns want to go small and play a run-and-gun style that they are better suited for than most teams in the NBA.
With Lopez gone, we expect that to be the case more often than not.
We saw it already in Lopez's first game out, as Frye came off the bench to put up 17 points and six boards. He also hit five 3-pointers in 31 minutes against the Timberwolves.
To expect 17-20 points out of him on a regular basis would be a bit much, but keep in mind the numbers he put up in the first half.
Frye averaged 12.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in 29.7 minutes in November. He averaged 12.9 points and 6.3 rebounds in December while seeing 33 minutes per contest. His minutes began to dip in January, to 26.1 per game, and so did his scoring and rebounding to 10.1 and 5.1 per tilt. When Lopez broke out in February, Frye's minutes dipped to 21.1 per game and his scoring and rebounding dipped under 10 points and four boards.
Now, with Lopez gone, Frye should see his minutes go back to around 30 per contest, where he could easily once again offer around 13 points and six boards on a regular basis -- or if Sunday's game was any indication, perhaps even more.
Do you have a Fantasy hoops question for our staff? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Fast Break in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. You can also now follow Sergio on Twitter (@CBSGonzalez) where he'll also answer questions.
