The Fantasy hoops season has come to an end. Here's hoping you came away a winner in your league. But whether you did or didn't, it is never too early to start looking ahead at next season.
After all, winning a Fantasy title is all about preparation. So be prepared to pay close attention to what is sure to be one of the more memorable NBA offseasons -- ever. From one of the most top-heavy free agent classes ever to Yao Ming's right foot, the Fantasy hoops landscape could look a whole lot different by the time this summer ends.
So, in the interest of making sure you aren't asleep at the wheel while you are worried about Carlos Zambrano's bloated ERA or Brett Favre's retirement plans, we've come up with an offseason watch list to focus on while you are playing in those "other" Fantasy leagues.
Playoff Stockwatch
(April 17)
The NBA playoffs have a way of making stars out of players. Those players don't always maintain that status once the next season plays out.
In some cases, the playoffs have served as an indication of a player's arrival as a breakout player. Think Tony Parker or Rajon Rondo in recent years. In others, they can serve as a way to inflate a player's appeal only to see those players return to mediocrity the following season. Think James Posey or Daniel Gibson.
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| Rajon Rondo's big coming out party came in a playoff run by the Celtics. (US Presswire) |
The best way to do that is to determine the reason for their success, or in some cases failure, during the playoffs.
Much in the same way that Fantasy owners tend to put too much stock into a player because of their numbers in the preseason, playoff performances often cause Fantasy owners to overreact in terms of a player's perceived value.
The reality is that conditions change in each of the different phases of the season. Playing time, rotations and other factors are different in the preseason than they are in the regular season or in the playoffs. It really is that simple.
In the preseason, rookies and players that have to prove their worth get a lot more opportunities than they ever will in the regular season. Sure, averages of 20-and-10 by Joe Schmoe have a way of making him look like a promising young player or a potential Fantasy breakout, but when his minutes go from 35 per game in the preseason to 10 in the regular season he suddenly doesn't look so promising.
A similar situation occurs in the playoffs, where playing time changes as rotations are tightened up and matchups play an even bigger role than they do in the regular season. Teams often go from playing around 10-12 guys to playing just eight or nine.
Therefore, there are actually more minutes to go around for role players who normally don't see as much playing time during the regular season. Or in other cases, coaches look to exploit certain matchups that work for them against a particular opponent, leading to more minutes and touches for a player who may not get those looks otherwise.
So Fantasy owners should watch the playoffs with an eye toward next season, but analyze each situation on a case-by-case basis. If a player gets hot in the playoffs, take note of the reasons why and try to translate that into the next season. Will he be in a similar situation to contribute over the course of an entire season, or is he just making the most of his situation in the playoffs?
Understanding why could save you from over-paying for players in drafts this fall.
NBA Draft
(June 24)
Some draft classes are deeper than others. If this year's NCAA Tournament was any indication, we are looking at a pretty solid class coming in.
Fantasy owners have to pay close attention to the NBA Draft as it is the first real instance in the offseason where teams begin to add elements that will change their rosters for the upcoming season. Whether or not rookies are ready to contribute, their presence will undoubtedly impact other players in the roster.
This season's group of rookies was more impactful than recent draft classes, especially at the guard position with players like Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry and Jonny Flynn headlining. Evan Turner of Ohio State and John Wall of Kentucky, among others, seem to indicate that another group of ready-to-play stars is on the way.
But keep in mind the situations these players are heading into. After all, it isn't always about the talent a player has, but rather the situation that he is faced with.
For instance, you won't find many people who will tell you that Ty Lawson, Jerryd Bayless or Jeff Teague aren't highly talented players who have the ability to one day make a significant impact at the NBA level. But this season, none of these players made more than a momentary splash in Fantasy leagues.
The reason for their lack of a Fantasy impact this season isn't because they aren't any good. The reason is that they were drafted by teams that had players in place at their position that capped their ability to contribute. Lawson was blocked by Chauncey Billups in Denver, Bayless was blocked by Steve Blake and Andre Miller at different times in Portland and Teague was blocked by Mike Bibby in Atlanta.
So, much like we explained in the case of not putting too much stock in players coming off strong playoff performances without first analyzing their prospective situations in the upcoming season, don't read too much into a player's college career without first analyzing the situations they are heading into.
Free Agency
( July 1)
The 2010 free agent class has been talked about for years in advance. Well, the much-anticipated moment is going down this summer and is sure to shake things up going into next season.
LeBron James. Dwyane Wade. Dirk Nowitzki. Chris Bosh. Joe Johnson. Amar'e Stoudemire. These players are so good they can make up an entire sentence on their own. And these are just some of the big names that could be changing uniforms this fall.
Fantasy owners really shouldn't formulate any real ideas about any player until the dust settles.
Many of these star players are going to be in for a much different situation starting this upcoming situation. In more than a few cases, they could be looking at a decline in their Fantasy value. While players like LeBron and D-Wade should be able to retain most of their elite Fantasy appeal, other players like Bosh and Stoudemire could be looking at a much different reality.
A lot of what has caused this summer to be such a game-changer compared to other free agency periods is that there is going to be a lot of situations where teams get to put some of these superstars together on the same team. NBA teams all over the league have dreams of pairing Wade and Bosh or LeBron and Stoudemire, in the hopes of turning themselves into instant title contenders.
The result is that we could be looking at more watered-down roles for key players.
In recent years, we've seen teams start to go from having one star player and a bunch of role players around them to the creation of "super" teams. We've seen it in Boston and Los Angeles, with players like Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen put together to fuel a championship run. The Lakers melded Kobe with Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum and now Ron Artest. The Magic added Vince Carter to the mix with Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis.
The results on the floor have been great. The results in Fantasy have not been as great.
In Boston, we've seen numbers decline for Garnett, Allen and Pierce compared to what their numbers were when they were all the lone superstars for their respective franchises. In Los Angeles, Lamar Odom and Ron Artest have had to sacrifice statistical gains for championship hopes. Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis won a ton of games this year, but their numbers dropped noticeably.
So many superstars, like Bosh, Stoudemire and Johnson are looking at similar possibilities in the future. Fantasy owners who have normally been able to rely on Johnson to drop 20-25 points per night, should be prepared to see his numbers dip into the 17-18 point range if he joins a team that has a couple of other big-time players that he'll have to share the ball with -- and so on, and so on.
There will be tiers that develop among these players. Some are more likely to remain "top dogs" on their teams than others. LeBron and D-Wade probably aren't going to feel this summer's changes as much as players like Johnson or possibly a guy like David Lee.
The key will be knowing the difference between these "top dogs" and players who will go from being the unquestionable go-to guy on their team to being more of a sidekick.
FIBA World Championship
(Aug. 28-Sept. 12)
With the growing influence that the international game is having on the NBA, it is important for Fantasy owners to start paying more attention than ever to what goes on outside of The Association.
Whether it is Ricky Rubio's box scores from Spain or this summer's international activity, it all comes back to affect things here in the States. This year's FIBA World Championship has the potential to impact NBA players on several levels. Injury risks and conditioning matters coupled with eye-opening performances creating potential impact free agents are just some of the reasons to watch this summer's biggest event globaly in basketball.
Historically, players who have participated in high-level competition during the NBA offseason have had some trouble staying healthy through the course of an entire NBA season afterward. Manu Ginobili has been one of the most prominent examples of a player who has been worn down at times by the constant grind of balancing his responsibilities with the Argentine national team with his responsibilities with the Spurs.
Ginobili will be a part of this summer's highly touted free agent class and his participation in the FIBA tournament could have a big impact on where he winds up if he is still without a team, although he'll likely be looking to have his contract sorted out by then so that a potential injury doesn't impact his negotiations.
Many NBA players have not decided on whether or not they will participate in the tournament and with so many free agency implications this summer, resistance to participate may be higher than ever -- especially among American players.
But playes from other countries usally are more receptive to representing their countries in international competition as the talent pools are much shallower and they feel a responsibility to give their national teams the best possible chance to compete.
With the tourament in Turkey this year, for example, expect Mehmet Okur and Ersan Ilyasova to feel the burden of playing hosts the way that Yao Ming did in Beijing during the 2008 Summer Olympics.
Often the burden and responsibilities these players take on for their national teams, while honorable and welcomed by them, end up having an impact affecting them when the NBA season comes around.
But these international tournaments also have a way of launching NBA careers. Many of the international players on NBA teams now get the chance to show NBA scouts what they could do at FIBA tournaments and this year's version, with the international gap in talent closing, is sure to provide a few more players who might be on your Fantasy rosters next year.
Do you have a Fantasy hoops question for our staff? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Fast Break in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. You can also now follow Sergio on Twitter (@CBSGonzalez) where he'll also answer questions.
