Rookies for now and the future
Rookies can be very hit or miss in Fantasy hoops, but hitting it big with the right one can pay huge dividends.
Last season, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings turned out to be high-end Fantasy options and proved to be great values to Fantasy owners that took chances on these players in the mid-to-late rounds. This year, Fantasy owners will be looking to get that same kind of value from a new class of ballers and future NBA stars.
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When it comes to how much a rookie can contribute at the NBA level, it is important to analyze more than the player's ability. It is also important to consider that player's situation going into his new team. For example, a player like Ty Lawson from last season's rookie class appeared to have all the upside in the world coming out of North Carolina only to be stuck serving as the apprentice to Chauncey Billups.
Lucky for you, we've taken the liberty of breaking down this year's draft class on a player-by-player basis. We take into account ability, opportunity for playing time, coaching styles and intangibles to determine the top rookies to target in seasonal formats for the upcoming season.
As with just about everything this offseason, free agency could still change the entire landscape of the league. We tried to take possible player movement into account in these rankings. As the moves start to go down in the Great Free Agent Summer of 2010 (patent pending), make sure to check back with us for adjustments in the value of all players affected.
Top 10 Rookie Targets (Seaonal Leagues)
John Wall, G, Wizards: The top pick in this year's draft could have to battle Gilbert Arenas for the ball, but when was the last time Arenas was a factor for an entire season? Expect Wall and Arenas to man the first unit in the back court with Kirk Hinrich playing a combo-role behind them. We suspect that Hinrich was added more for insurance for Arenas than Wall. We expect Wall to play heavy minutes and shoulder a significant offensive role out of the gate, similar to what Brandon Jennings dealt with in Milwaukee last fall.
| | |
| Player | |
| 1. | John Wall, G, Wizards |
| 2. | Blake Griffin, F, Clippers |
| 3. | Evan Turner, G, 76ers |
| 4. | DeMarcus Cousins, F, Kings |
| 5. | Derrick Favors, F, Nets |
| 6. | Paul George, F, Pacers |
| 7. | Gordon Hayward, G, Jazz |
| 8. | James Anderson, G, Spurs |
| 9. | Greg Monroe, F, Pistons |
| 10. | Wesley Johnson, F, Timberwolves |
Blake Griffin, F, Clippers: Surprised to see him here? Well, he is a rookie still after missing all of last due to an injury to his kneecap. Griffin is already reportedly operating at 100 percent and, barring setbacks, should finally get a chance to make his presence felt in the NBA after being the first pick in last year's draft. Last season, we projected him to average 16.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game with just over a block per contest. We'll stand by those projections again this year.
Evan Turner, G, 76ers: Long term, Turner has the upside of a No. 1 or 2 guard. He is capable of playing either guard position and should provide the Sixers with flexibility in the back court with Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday being part of a promising young trio of guards along with the rookie. We expect Turner to start alongside Holiday, pushing Williams into a combo, sixth-man role. Turner can score and distribute and should be well-rounded for Rotisserie formats.
Wesley Johnson, F, Timberwolves: We love the situation Johnson is going into as a rookie. He'll be just about a lock for big minutes for a Minnesota team that cleared room for him by trading away Ryan Gomes. He'll be re-united with Jonny Flynn and should fit right in with a young team that can get up and down the floor. He provides the team with an outside shooting threat it lacks, and that could be his way into double-digit shot attempts on a nightly basis. Long-term, we don't think his ceiling will be much more than a No. 3 forward for Fantasy purposes, but we think he'll be able to reach his ceiling quicker than most in Minnesota.
DeMarcus Cousins, F, Kings: Cousins will need to battle for playing time with Carl Landry and Jason Thompson, but we expect him to be a prominent part of a very free-flowing rotation. He'll have to earn his way, but the upside is high for this Kentucky Wildcat standout who averaged 15.1 points 9.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. If he finds even 25 minutes per game, he'll be a solid contributor.
Ekpe Udoh, F, Warriors: He'll get a chance to play for Don Nelson, which can be a blessing and a curse all at the same time. Udoh has not been a great scorer throughout his career, but he is an excellent athlete that should fit Golden State's running style well. He can also provide the team with a much-needed rebounding presence, which could be his way into big minutes. Big minutes under Don Nelson have just about always turned into Fantasy success. Just be prepared for Don Nelson to frustrate you with his erratic rotations and whimsical decisions over the course of the season.
Xavier Henry, G, Grizzlies: Henry is a pure scorer, which doesn't seem like an area of need for Memphis -- one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA this past season. He'll have to battle fellow rookie Greivis Vazquez for playing time, but there could be a situation where O.J. Mayo moves to point guard full-time at the expense of Mike Conley. That would free up shooting guard minutes and touches for both Conley and Vazquez.
Cole Aldrich, C, Thunder: Perhaps the only center worth drafting among rookies this season, Aldrich will have to earn his way in Oklahoma City. Still, the only players he'll be contending with are Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison. He is a better shot blocker and could be a better rebounder than both players. Don't expect much in the way of scoring, however.
Derrick Favors, F, Nets: A trade that sent Yi Jianlian to Washington should open up a chance for good playing time for Favors. We like him more as a long-term option than a viable starter this fall, but he's looking at significant playing time depending on what the Nets do in free agency.
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