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2010-11 Draft Prep: Forward Tiers

Sergio Gonzalez
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You are up in the draft. Hurry up. Time is ticking. Make a pick. Make a pick. Make a pick.

That's your pick? Really? Thanks for the donation, make sure you pay your league fee up front.

Just about every Fantasy owner has had it happen to them at some point. You get forced into making a rash decision and spend the rest of the season thinking about the players you could have had if you'd only had the chance to think about it a little longer. But in a timed draft, time is of the essence and you'd better do a lot of your thinking before your draft ever starts.

That's right, if you want to be good at this whole Fantasy thing and want to be more than just an annual contributor to your buddy's bank roll, you've got do do your homework.

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That's where we come in.

We are in the business of getting you as prepared as possible for your draft. Consider us like the nerd in your high school algebra class who you got to do your homework by promising an invite to the party on Friday night.

One of the most successful draft strategies we recommend and subscribe to ourselves is the use of tiers when drafting.

What it boils down to is grouping players at each position into clusters of similar players. At each position, there are different levels of players. The trick is to group a series of players who you feel could conceivably finish in the same relative production level by season's end.

By mapping these players out and having them in front of you while you draft, you can give yourself a better visual guide as far as what is really left at each position in order to make a better decision. For example, if your pick is up and you see that your list still has more than a few players available at a certain position that you'd be comfortable with and only a couple at another position then the decision is clear.

The idea is to come up with a "last-resort" player for each tier. This is the last player you'd be comfortable drafting at a certain level. The levels can be determined in different ways. One way to do it is by breaking down players into position slots. Decide who the very last player you'd be comfortable with as your No. 1 forward, your No. 2 forward, etc.

Cross off the players in each of your tiers as your draft goes on and make a move when you start running out of names. It's simple and it works.

We've taken the liberty of coming up with our own tiers for you at each position. While we always recommend coming up with your own based on your league's format and your own notions and research, rest assured that a lot of thought and research was put into our set of tiers. We've got a lot of time to think about Fantasy hoops, time that you may not have considering that pesky job or family thing you've got going on.

So print them out, take them with you to your draft and cross off players as picks are made. You'll make much smarter picks and will come away with a much more balanced team as a result.

You are welcome. We're still on for Friday night, though, right?

Players denoted with a (*) indicate players who may not be eligible at the given position in your league. Check your position eligibility rules accordingly. Players denoted with a (inj) tag indicate players who are expected to miss time going into the season.

Forwards

LeBron James has company at the top. Kevin Durant is our new choice for the No. 1 overall pick in all Fantasy formats, but we aren't ready to knock King James too far down as you can see.

There seems to be less depth at the top at the forward position than at guard, so you may want to keep that in mind early in your draft. Consider snagging a top forward or two before selecting a guard. Depending on where you pick in the draft, you could come away with a Dirk Nowitzki and Danny Granger and still come away with a pair of high level guard with your next two picks.

Later in the draft, there seems to be much more depth at forward and there is plenty of sleeper and breakout appeal in the lower levels at this position. Plan accordingly.

Tiers

Super-elite: Kevin Durant, LeBron James

Elite: Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki, Amar'e Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Andre Iguodala, Danny Granger, Brandon Roy*

Next best thing: Chris Bosh, Zach Randolph, Al Jefferson*

High-end starters: Stephen Jackson, Antawn Jamison, Gerald Wallace, Josh Smith, Tim Duncan, David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love, Carlos Boozer (inj)

Reliable starters: Rudy Gay, Luol Deng, Paul Pierce, John Salmons, Jeff Green, Blake Griffin, Carl Landry, Andray Blatche*, Nene, Trevor Ariza, Caron Butler, Luis Scola, Michael Beasley, Troy Murphy, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler*, Marcus Camby

Low-end starters: Lamar Odom, Al Harrington, Hedo Turkoglu, Tayshaun Prince, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko, Boris Diaw, Elton Brand, Corey Brewer, Rashard Lewis, Thaddeus Young, Corey Maggette (inj)

Quality reserves: Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Anthony Randolph, Paul Millsap, Jason Thompson, Richard Jefferson, Tyrus Thomas, Taj Gibson, Derrick Favors, Anthony Tolliver, Terrence Williams, J.J. Hickson, Carlos Delfino, DeMarcus Cousins, Marreese Speights, DeJuan Blair,Josh McRoberts

Reserves: Charlie Villanueva, Drew Gooden, Udonis Haslem, Marvin Williams, Ersan Ilyasova, Linas Kleiza, Kenyon Martin (inj), Josh Howard (inj), Tiago Splitter, Omri Casspi, Wesley Johnson, Al Thornton

Low-end reserves: Grant Hill, Anderson Varejao, Mike Miller, Yi Jianlian, Ryan Gomes, Kelenna Azubuike (inj), Hakim Warrick, Shane Battier, Rasual Butler, Jared Dudley, Wesley Matthews, Amir Johnson, Peja Stojakovic, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Greg Monroe

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can e-mail us your Fantasy Basketball questions to DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com . Be sure to put Forward Tiers in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

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Player News
George Hill
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News: ESPN reports that Pacers point guard George Hill missed Game 5 against the Knicks because of a concussion. There's no definite timetable for his return. Under the guidelines of the NBA's concussion protocol, it seems highly unlikely Hill returns in time for Game 6 on Saturday against the Knicks. He may not be back for Game 7 on Monday, either, if it is necessary. Hill was diagnosed with a concussion on Thursday afternoon -- about three hours before tipoff of Game 5. He will need to go through a lengthy series of tests before he returns to the floor. Per the NBA's concussion policy, which was implemented at the beginning of the 2011-12 season, Hill first needs to show that he is symptom-free.
Analysis: Keep an eye on Hill's status, and hopefully he can return for Game 6 and doesn't have any concussion issues moving forward. When healthy and active, Hill is a quality Fantasy option in the majority of leagues.

Kevin Garnett
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Analysis: Garnett had another productive year, averaging 14.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 49.6 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the foul line. He will likely return if the Celtics keep Paul Pierce, but that's just speculation. Keep an eye on what happens with the Celtics, and if Garnett is back consider him a solid No. 2 Fantasy center worth a mid-round pick.

Paul Pierce
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News: The Boston Globe reports the Celtics have to decide by June 30 whether to buy out Paul Pierce’s contract at $5 million. Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said the sides have not had discussions, but an NBA source said Pierce’s family is already beginning to prepare for relocation from Boston, assuming the Celtics will execute the buyout or trade his expiring contract in the offseason.Pierce struggled mightily during the playoffs, and Ainge was asked whether the longtime Celtic was injured. “Paul’s always battling little things,” said Ainge. “I think Paul’s healthy, but he played so hard and carried such a heavy load. Paul had a terrific year this year, but in the playoffs, New York did a good job of taking away his strengths and taking advantage of some of our weaknesses. But I thought Paul had a terrific year.”
Analysis: This report makes it seems as though Pierce could be gone, but we'd be surprised if that happens. That said, the Celtics do need to start rebuilding at some point. Keep an eye on what happens with Pierce and where he ends up. He would remain a quality starting option in all leagues no matter where he plays, but we'd like him best if he returned to Boston.

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News: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said that the plantar fasciitis in center Joakim Noah’s right foot could require surgery, but that Noah would try rehabilitation first. “That hasn’t been determined,’’ Thibodeau said of Noah undergoing surgery. “Obviously, we’d like to avoid the surgery. He has responded a lot better. He has found something that has worked. "We want him to get completely healthy That will be the focus, getting him back to 100 percent. He needs some rest, as most of the guys do."
Analysis: We hope whatever Noah decides to do with his foot will get him back to being 100 percent for the start of next season. When healthy and active, Noah is an elite Fantasy center in the majority of leagues. He is worth drafting as early as Round 3 or 4 in most formats.

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News: The Racine Journal-Times reports that Bucks guard J.J. Redick could be departing this summer. Redick loved Orlando, and was very upset when he was traded. It's not likely that he would return to the Magic, considering their rebuilding condition, but he'll finally be in a position to make his own choices for his career. Redick could want to sign with a contender for less money, or an up-and-coming team for more. Redick averaged 12 points and three assists on just 40 percent shooting in Milwaukee after averaging 15 points and four assists per game with Orlando before the trade deadline.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Redick ends up, and hopefully he lands with a team where he can get playing time and post quality stats. He is worth drafting with a late-round pick in the majority of leagues depending on where he signs.

Tyson Chandler
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News: The New York Post reports that Knicks center Tyson Chandler hurt his back and knee with a late tumble Thursday night against the Pacers and left the court in the final minute for the locker room. He said he’s sore, but will play Saturday in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals at Indiana. “I probably won’t get the best night’s sleep," Chandler said.
Analysis: We hope Chandler can play against the Pacers and that he doesn't have any issues going forward with his back or knee. When healthy and active, Chandler is a solid Fantasy center in the majority of leagues.

Kawhi Leonard
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News: The San Antonio Express-News reports that Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard's knee is a "storyline for the next round" after San Antonio beat Golden State in the Western Conference semifinals. The Spurs will next face Memphis in the conference finals. The report says the knee is bothering him and "mild cause for concern."
Analysis: We expect Leonard to play against the Grizzlies in the next round, but keep an eye on what develops with his knee. When healthy and active, Leonard is a developing Fantasy option in the majority of leagues.

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Jarrett Jack, PG, GS
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News: The Contra Costa Times reports that guard Jarrett Jack would like to return to the Warriors next season. Golden State was eliminated from the playoffs by San Antonio in the Western Conference semifinals. “Usually before I would do any media, I would make sure I was dressed a certain way," he said. "I brought one of my best suits. But looking down at this jersey, it’s just a sense of pride I don’t think I’ve ever felt as a professional. … Nothing in my closet is better than what I have on now.” His future with the Warriors is uncertain. Jack, who made $5 million this season, will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. He played a pivotal role in the Warriors’ success as the backup point guard and the late-game ball-handler. So much so, Golden State reached out for extension talks back in January, but Jack declined before talks could get going so he could focus on the season.
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Analysis: Robinson had his finest regular season since 2008-09, averaging 13.1 points and 4.4 assists in just 25.4 minutes per game. Robinson has clearly grown as a player, and he enters free agency at a good time. Coming off a successful year in the Bulls' elite defense will help his value on the market as well. Robinson is unlikely to get a starting role, but an increase in minutes would not be terribly surprising coming off his postseason successes. Robinson should be worth targeting in the mid-to-late rounds on Draft Day in most Fantasy formats.

 
 
 
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