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2010-11 Draft Prep: Undervalued and overrrated

Sergio Gonzalez
Fantasy Writer
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They say you get what you pay for. But that is not always true in Fantasy.

Sometimes, you can pay a high price for a player with a high draft pick and not get enough in return. Other times, you can get much more than you bargained for and come away with a steal. Well, with the draft season coming to a close prior to the start of the Fantasy hoops season, we've taken a closer look at players we feel are being both undervalued and overvalued in drafts.

Based on the average draft position of players being selected in CBSSports.com leagues, we have compiled a list of the players we feel are being most overlooked and overrated in order to assist Fantasy owners to both find some of the best value picks and avoid making costly mistakes.

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Use this list to your advantage on Draft Day, in addition to our rankings, tiers, sleepers and breakout picks.

Most Undervalued

These players are being drafted behind players we feel they will out-perform.

Devin Harris, G, NJ (Avg. Draft Position: 43): Last season was a down year for Harris, as it was for just about all Nets players not named Brook Lopez. But Fantasy owners may be letting him slip too deep into drafts. He had a horrible first half, due in part to injuries, but was able to turn things around in the second half when he averaged 17.9 points and 6.9 steals following the All-Star break. In fact, last February, he averaged 20.3 points and 9.1 assists per game. Playing for a familiar coach in Avery Johnson, a former point guard who coached Harris in Dallas, should help Harris put together a resurgent campaign.

Mo Williams, G, CLE (Avg. Draft Position: 57): How quickly Fantasy owners forget. In his final season with the Bucks before coming over to the Cavaliers, Williams emerged as a high-end Fantasy guard, averaging a 17-6-4 stat line while also averaging over a steal and a 3-pointer. His numbers took a hit when he came to Cleveland. Why? He had to defer to a guy named LeBron. That won't be the case any longer and the Cavs are going to be looking to Williams to take on a much heavier offensive load this year. At 27, he is in the prime of his career and may be in the best situation he has ever been in to put up numbers. A career season is highly possible.

Luol Deng, F, CHI: (Avg. Draft Position: 73 ): Deng enjoyed a resurgent season last year after an injury-plagued 2008-09 season, but Fantasy owners have not seemed willing to count him all the way back. Part of the hesitation could be that he has failed to play more than 70 games since the 2006-07 season, but Deng entered camp in excellent shape and the 25-year-old is still a player who should continue to develop offensively for a Bulls team that is expected to be a contender in the Eastern Conference. We have noticed tremendous improvement in his 3-point shooting this preseason, which could help add to his scoring.

Jamal Crawford, G, ATL: (Avg. Draft Position: 82): Crawford is slipping into the eighth or ninth round in a lot of leagues, but that is too far for a player who averaged 18.0 points per game last season and will at the very least be in line to repeat those types of numbers this year. He has expressed his dissatisfaction with his contract and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder to prove his worth to not only the Hawks, but other teams. Expect an 18-3-3 season with multiple 3-pointers and just fewer than a steal per game as a starting point.

Andris Biedrins, C, GS (Avg. Draft Position: 118): Last season was dismal for Biedrins as he missed significant time due to an abdominal injury and was just not himself even in the 33 games he managed to play. He averaged just 5.0 points and 7.8 rebounds and has seen his Fantasy stock dip tremendously. Prior to last year, though, he had put up three straight years of 10-and-10 with over a block per game. With the Warriors looking to play a more traditional style under new coach Keith Smart following the departure of Don Nelson, Biedrins should no longer be subject to unsteady rotations and is expected to see heavy minutes this year at center.

Most Overvalued

These players are being drafted too high, considering ...

Joakim Noah, C, CHI (Avg. Draft Position: 49): We are fans of Noah in Fantasy just like many of you, but we just are not sure if he should be going quite as high as he is -- especially when he is going ahead of players like Chris Kaman at his own position. Kaman is coming off a year in which he averaged 18.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game and as much as we like Noah, we don't foresee him ever having the upside to put together such a solid offensive campaign along with his rebounding. Considering the addition of Carlos Boozer and the lingering concerns over the plantar fasciitis problems he dealt with that limited him in the second half last season, a fourth or fifth round pick may be too risky of an investment.

Rodney Stuckey, G, DET (Avg. Draft Position: 60): Stuckey has gotten better in each of his first three seasons in the NBA, but there are some warning flags around him this year that could be a sign of that trend could come to an end. Much of the concern has to do with Will Bynum, who threatens to cut into Stuckey's playing time and overall value this year. Coach John Kuester has been toying with the idea of playing Stuckey off the bench this year and is committing to Bynum getting a good deal of playing time. That certainly will not help Stuckey's numbers.

Manu Ginobili, G, SA (Avg. Draft Position: 64): Ginobili's name may carry more weight than it should in Fantasy. The 33-year-old is still a very solid contributor in Fantasy, averaging a 16-5-4 stat line last season. But he is going ahead of players like Trevor Ariza (15-5-4), Eric Gordon (17-3-3) and Jamal Crawford (18-3-3), who are more likely at this stage in their careers to increase their production than Ginobili is given his constant injury risk due to his gritty style of play and age.

Luis Scola, F, HOU (Avg. Draft Position: 76): Scola put up career numbers last season, emerging as a breakout player while Yao Ming was sidelined. This season, Yao's return threatens to take away some of Scola's touches both on the offensive end and on the glass. He averaged 12.7 points and 8.7 rebounds alongside Yao in 2008-09, about four points fewer per game. Meanwhile, Scola is being drafted ahead of a player like Michael Beasley, with tons of upside and hope for improvement.

Anthony Randolph, F, NY (Avg. Draft Position: 90): Randolph, seemingly a perennial sleeper, entered the preseason as a popular sleeper pick again this year after coming over to the Knicks, but he has not gotten off to a great start with new coach Mike D'Antoni. At several times during the preseason, D'Antoni has not held back in his criticism of Randolph and his inability to pick up his system. Timofey Mozgov is now likely to start ahead of him and it could be a while before Fantasy owners get any real payoff from Randolph. Meanwhile, he is being selected ahead of teammate Wilson Chandler in many drafts, despite Chandler's prominent role and more established track record.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can e-mail us your Fantasy Basketball questions to DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com . Be sure to put Undervalued/Overvalued in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

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Player News
Heat add Reggie Williams
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(8/16/2014) The Heat signed guard Reggie Williams to a free-agency contract last week, the team announced. Terms of the deal are not known.

Williams appeared in just three games for the Thunder last season, and has played 180 games over parts of five NBA seasons. He averages 8.5 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game, while shooting 46.0 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from three-point range for his career.  


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Thomas dealt with a sprained wrist last season but was able to play through it on his way to a career year. An MRI in February revealed no ligament damage, which would indicate this latest procedure is nothing to worry about. The team expects him to be ready for training camp. 


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According to Yahoo Sports, Cousins limped off the court during a Team USA training session after Anthony Davis landed on his knee during a scrimmage. Cousins later tweeted that he was "fine," helping to suppress any concerns of a serious injury. 


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(8/11/2014) The Pacers are shopping center Roy Hibbert, and they have called the Pistons regarding a potential deal involving restricted free agent Greg Monroe, Detroit Sports 105.1 reports.

There's no word about whether the Pistons would be interested in a Monroe-for-Hibbert spot, but they are pretty well set in the middle with Andre Drummond in the starting lineup. It's a rumor that seemingly has very little chance of coming to fruition.


Rockets sign Kostas Papanikolaou
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8/11/2014) The Rockets have signed small forward Kostas Papanikolaou .

Papanikolaou gets $4.8 million guaranteed in the upcoming season, with a team option of $4.6 million for the following season. He has been playing in Europe since being drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft.


Report: Greg Oden faces felony charge
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8/11/2014) Free agent Greg Oden is facing a felony charge after allegedly attacking his former girlfriend after a night of drinking, the Indianapolis Star reports.

Oden is accused of punching the woman in the face three times and fracturing a bone in her nose, according to court documents. The felony offense carries a penaly of one-to-six years in prison.


Markel Brown out with broken hand
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8/11/2014) Nets guard Markel Brown will be held out of basketball activities for four-to-six weeks after being diagnosed with a nondisplaced fracture of the fourth metacarpal in his right hand, the team announced Monday.

Brown was selected 44th overall in this year's draft, and the Nets acquired him for cash considerations on the night of the draft. He averaged 17.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists in his senior season at Oklahoma State.


Report: Wolves to swap Anthony Bennett for Thaddeus Young
by Joe Polito | CBSSports.com
(8/8/2014) Though the trade can't go official until August 23, the deal reportedly struck between the Cavaliers and Timberwolves will lead to another trade between Minnesota and the 76ers.

The Philadelphia Daily News reported early Friday that Minnesota, upon receiving Anthony Bennett from the Cavs as part of the Kevin Love trade, would then trade him for Thaddeus Young. The Timberwolves have been showing interest in Young since Love stated his desire to be traded.

Meanwhile, the 76ers want to move Young because he's entering his prime at age 26 and only has one additional year left on his contract. Acquiring Bennett would complete a core of young talent to develop over the coming years. Young was one of the most productive forwards in the league last year playing in Brett Brown's up-tempo offense, averaging 17.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game. Bennett, on the other hand, failed to make any impact what so ever but did show signs of growth during the Summer League. 


Landing in Minnesota should improve Andrew Wiggins' value
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(8/7/2014) The prize of the trade that ultimately sent Kevin Love to Cleveland will likely be the Timberwolves' acquisition of No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins , assuming there are no unexpected changes in the deal the two sides agreed to.

If Wiggins does ultimately land in Minnesota, as expected, this should be a boon to his Fantasy value. Though Wiggins will have substantially less help as he makes the transition to the NBA than he would have in Cleveland, he is also likely to be much more of a featured option than he otherwise might have been.

Wiggins was likely going to be the third or possibly even fourth offensive option for the Cavs, and likely would have been so for some time, given the presence of LeBron James and Kyrie Irving on long-term deals. Now, the Timberwolves get to build around Wiggins as their long-term centerpiece, and he should be given plenty of rope as the team tries to navigate their upcoming rebuild.

Wiggins is raw, but still put up 17.1 points and 5.9 rebounds in 32.8 minutes per game as a freshman at the University of Kansas. There are some questions about how well his game will translate to the NBA, but he will at least have some help, in the form of point guard Ricky Rubio, who knows exactly how to set up teammates for shots they like.

Wiggins is mostly upside right now, but should be considered a second-round pick in all keeper-league Fantasy formats. In yearly re-draft leagues, he is more of a mid-round option at this point, albeit one with tremendous upside. 


Anthony Bennett a bit more intriguing following trade
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(8/7/2014) After a rookie season that can be charitably described as lost, a change of scenery is probably the best outcome Anthony Bennett could have hoped for this offseason. He got that Thursday, with the news that the long-awaited Kevin Love trade has landed him in Minnesota.

Last year's No. 1 overall pick luckily doesn't have to join the Cavaliers with the pressure of replacing Love as the face of the franchise -- this year's No. 1 pick, Andrew Wiggin, will take that on. Bennett gets to join a Timberwolves team that can give him more consistent playing time than last year's Cavaliers afforded him, but which won't ask him to do more than he is capable.

Bennett might end up starting at power forward for the Wolves, though a bench role seems more likely at this point. He had a disastrous rookie season after entering the season out of shape, but appeared to be in better shape while playing with the Cavaliers during the Summer League in Las Vegas. He still shot the ball poorly in Vegas -- 42.6 percent from the field and just 4 of 16 from three-point range -- but Bennett looked much more capable during his time there.

Based on his rookie season, Bennett has a long way to go before he is contributing at a high level. However, Fantasy owners in deeper category-based leagues should consider taking a chance on the 21-year-old in the later rounds, because he will have the chance to earn a large role if he proves worthy. 


 
 
 
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