Fantasy Extra: A potential first round for 2011-12
Whether you are coming off a championship-filled Fantasy Hoops season or a disappointing campaign, it is never too early to start thinking about next year.
The 2010-11 Fantasy hoops season is barely in the books, but we are already thinking about this fall. We know most of you are as well. That is why we have lined up a sneak peak at what Fantasy owners should be expecting to see in drafts this October. After all, we are only about six months away from draft season!
Give or take a few variables, we anticipate these 12 players to be selected in the first round of most Fantasy drafts. We have taken into account several factors, including their performance this past season, initial projection analysis for the upcoming 2011-12 season and even some input from you real life Fantasy owners out there via Twitter.
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Granted, a lot can change in six months. Injuries, free agency and coaching changes are just some of the factors that will influence draft selections from here to October, but we feel the first round will likely see minimal changes.
1. LeBron James, F, Heat: Our apologies to King James, we never should have doubted ye. A reasonable amount of doubt crept into the collective thinking of Fantasy analysts and Fantasy owners alike going into the 2010-11 season, which was to be his first sharing the spotlight (and the ball) with fellow superstars in Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. A drop in production was anticipated, and it did indeed come, but not enough to knock him off the perch as the top overall producer in Fantasy. During the 2009-10 season, James outscored all with 4055.0 Fantasy points in standard Head-to-Head formats. In 2010-11, he once again outscored all players with 3699 Fantasy points. He lost exactly three points per game (29.7 ppg in 2009-10, 26.7 ppg in 2010-11), but remained around his career averages in boards and assists (7.5 rpg, 7.0 apg). Steals and blocks remained a significant positive for him with free-throw percentage being his only real negative in category leagues. There could still be some slight statistical decline in scoring ahead if the Heat address a real need for a fourth scoring option (nobody outside the big three averaged double-digits in scoring), but we now have a better understanding of how LeBron fits in with Wade and Bosh and it still has him coming out on top -- regardless of the format you might play in.
2. Kevin Durant, F, Thunder: While LeBron will undoubtedly return to being the unquestioned No. 1 overall pick in Fantasy, the next few picks will not be so clear cut. They will vary based upon format and each individual Fantasy owners' take, but our vote goes to Mr. Durant here. Durant was our choice to replace LeBron atop the Fantasy rankings going into this past season, but he fell well short of those expectations. He finished ninth in overall Head-to-Head points despite winning the scoring title by averaging 27.7 points per game. He experienced a slight decline in just about every significant category from what he enjoyed in 2010-11, but in category play he remained second only to LeBron in overall contributions. He won't hurt you in any category and the 22-year-old is very likely to improve as he enters his prime in his fifth NBA season.
3. Derrick Rose, G, Bulls: Rose posted MVP-caliber numbers in his third NBA season and established himself among the elite producers in Fantasy. He will be just 23 years old next season and should not only be able to match his production to date, but could very well surpass it. He finished second only to LeBron in Head-to-Head points in 2010-11 and was up there with Chris Paul and Pau Gasol in category leagues in terms of statistical distribution. The only possible knock on Rose is his shooting percentage, but at 44.5 percent in 2010-11, it is more than worth it if it leads to the 25.0 points per game he averaged. He has proven durable in his brief career and even added 3-point shooting to his arsenal this season to help set him apart.
4. Chris Paul, G, Hornets: Along with Rose and Durant, CP3 is in the mix for the second overall pick. However, we will put him a slight step behind them because of a trend of statistical decline for Paul each of the last two seasons. He played just 45 games in 2009-10 due to a knee injury and while he was able to play 80 games in 2010-11, he never really looked 100 percent. His scoring average dipped to a career-low 15.8 points per game and he averaged just below 10 assists per game. It was the first time he averaged below 10 assists per game since the 2006-07 season. However, he remains one of the rare options who can offer useful production in just about every significant category outside of blocks and a healthy offseason of rest recovery could help Paul find some of the production he has lost the past two years.
5. Pau Gasol, F, Lakers: Pau is a beast, regardless of which format you might play in. His numbers are steady and the only category he won't help you in is 3-point shooting. His center-eligibility makes him that much more attractive. He is about as safe a first-round pick as there is after dispelling any concerns that his injury woes of 2009-10 would spill over into this past season by playing in all 82 games for the Lakers.
6. Russell Westbrook, G, Thunder: Westbrook appears to be on the cusp of joining the tier of Durant/Rose/Paul as possible No. 2 overall picks. His third NBA season saw him establish himself as a high-end scoring option to go with his premium assist totals. He is also a premium source for steals and free-throw shooting. He will have to add to his 3-point shooting, much in the way Rose has, to help get him to the next level. However, in Head-to-Head formats, that will not be necessary as Westbrook is already among the top producers. He finished behind only LeBron and Rose in Head-to-Head points this season.
7. Amar'e Stoudemire, F, Knicks: His first season in New York proved just as fruitful as his best seasons with Phoenix. Even with the mid-season addition of Carmelo Anthony, Stoudemire's numbers remained steady all season long. He is right there with Gasol in terms of overall productivity among Fantasy center-eligible players, with only 3-point shooting lacking from his overall production. He is a smidge behind Gasol in rebounding, assists and free-throw shooting, but should always finish ahead of him in scoring.
8. Dwyane Wade, F, Heat: Much like with LeBron, there was some concern that the newly formed superstar trio in Miami would significantly cut into Wade's numbers. Year 1 of 'The Heatles' had minimal impact, if any, on Wade. His overall numbers remained on par with his career averages and while possible roster additions in the offseason figure to focus on another capable scoring option, we do not anticipate Wade dropping off from the level he has been able to sustain throughout much of his NBA career. He has yet to play 80 games in a season, but has now played in over 75 games in three consecutive years.
9. Dwight Howard, C, Magic: Perhaps the player whose draft position may vary the most among first-rounders, Howard could be selected in any position from No. 3 overall on down to No. 12. He has been a source of great debate in category play as an incredible source of rebounding, field-goal percentage and shot-blocking while also being an incredible drag in free-throw shooting. Dead production in 3-point shooting and assists help add some more negativity to his Roto value, but while Howard might make it tough on you in a few categories (and make it nearly impossible to do well in free-throw shooting), he can almost single-handedly win you three categories while also offering premium production in steals and and scoring. Strategy will play a big part in where Howard goes in drafts. In Head-to-Head formats, he finished seventh overall in Fantasy points in 2010-11.
10. Kobe Bryant, G, Lakers: The Black Mamba still has that scoring touch that has cemented his place among the league's all-time great players. He will be 33 next season and achy knees will become more and more of an issue as well as the continued knocks that seem to pile up on him more and more in the later stages of his career. However, Kobe has shown an innate ability to play through all of it, having played 82 games in three of the last four years -- including this past season. Kobe can hurt you in shooting percentage and won't help you with blocks, but his overall stat line remains superior to most. In Head-to-Head formats, he could still be a top-five pick. He finished sixth overall in Fantasy points this season.
11. Monta Ellis, G, Warriors: One of the best scorers in the NBA, Ellis also offers premium production in steals, 3-point shooting, free-throw percentage with solid assist totals for a scorer of his caliber. Like most high-end scoring guards, he may hurt you more than he will help you in shooting percentage, but at about 45 percent over the last three seasons he is not a total drag. Ellis shook off his previous back-to-back injury-filled seasons by playing 80 games in 2010-11. As long as the Golden State system remains a high-volume one, he should maintain his level of productivity.
12. Dirk Nowitzki, F, Mavericks: Never a sexy first-round pick, Dirk gets the job done year in and year out. He played under 75 games (73) in 2010-11 for the first time since his rookie season, but remains one of the steadiest, most well-rounded forward options in Fantasy. He is a plus producer in field-goal percentage, free-throw shooting and scoring with above-average contributions in rebounding. He will be 33-years old during the 2011-12 season, so decline will be a concern. The 2010-11 season marked the first time since the 2000-01 season that Dirk did not finish among the top-12 scorers in standard Head-to-Head formats.
Other possible first-round picks
Blake Griffin, F, Clippers: In Head-to-Head formats, he will be a top-five pick in most leagues after having finished fifth overall in Head-to-Head points as a rookie. In category leagues, however, his horrendous free-throw shooting (64.2 percent in 2010-11) and a lack of significant production in blocks and steals make him far less appealing.
Kevin Love, F, Timberwolves: He finished 14th in Head-to-Head points during his breakout season but would have finished higher if it were not for some curious early-season use by coach Kurt Rambis and his late-season injury problems. Coach Rambis is somewhat of a question mark to return next season and if there is a change in philosophy in Minnesota, it could impact Love in the form of a statistical decline. The Timberwolves ran with wreckless abandon, leading to more possessions per game (100.4) than any other team in the league. That helped Love in the form of not only scoring, but also helped pad his lofty rebound totals (15.2 rpg) that made him such a standout performer this season.
Deron Williams, G, Nets: Williams is coming off an injury-riddled season, but the offseason will allow him to restore his ailing wrist to full strength for 2011-12. Even playing in just 65 games, he finished 17th overall in Head-to-Head points. One of a select few players capable of 20 points and 10 assists per game, do not read too much into his decline in scoring average over 12 games played following his trade to New Jersey. He shot a putrid 34.9 percent from the floor due to the bum wrist. At full strength, another 20-10-4-1-0 season can be expected.
Stephen Curry, G, Warriors: Curry will be in the mix in category leagues as late first-round pick. He offers one of the most Roto-friendly stat lines among guards, with significant plusses in scoring, steals, 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage. He is an adequate rebounder for a guard and the only area he won't help you in is blocks. Now, if he could just shake those nagging ankle injuries.
Do you have a Fantasy hoops question for our staff? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Extra in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. You can also follow Sergio on Twitter (@CBSGonzalez).
