Amnesty could produce Fantasy sleepers
One of the most fascinating details to come out of the yet-to-be-finalized NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement is the so-called "Amnesty Rule," which will allow all teams one opportunity to rid themselves of their most onerous contract, as long as it was signed prior to the ratification of the new CBA.
So, for instance, Washington's Rashard Lewis and Orlando's Gilbert Arenas, two of the poster boys for the NBA's broken financial system, could both be waived by their respective franchises. The teams would not be penalized with a hit to their salary cap or luxury tax numbers. It is a Get Out of Jail Free Card for each team's worst contract.
Once that player is released, however, they are not free to sign with whoever they choose. Those players will go through a modified waiver process, where each team under the cap will have an opportunity to bid on how much of the player's contract they will be willing to pay, leaving the original team on the hook for the remainder.
This is, obviously, a unique situation that could have serious Fantasy repercussions, freeing up mostly veteran players from situations where they may not get much playing time or it could open up playing time for promising youngsters currently blocked by a contract a team can't stomach benching. The biggest question moving forward will be whether teams over the cap will be able to get in on a player who passed through waivers, because some of these players could be perfect fits on contenders. With that in mind, here are the Top 10 amnesty candidates with the greatest potential Fantasy impact.
1. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers ($14.9 million in 2011-12, $44 million from 2012-14): Easily the biggest name and arguably the toughest pill to swallow for the club out of this list, Roy went from franchise player to first guy off the bench by the age of 26 because his body simply could not hold up to the rigors of playing every day in the NBA. If healthy, he contributes in just about every Fantasy category, scoring in waves while adding assists, steals and boards -- he doesn't hurt you in any category. Unfortunately, last year he was only healthy once every few games. The Blazers should probably move on and let their bevy of young, athletic wings take over, and Roy would likely be a perfect match for Chicago, a team he's been linked to since the first rumblings of amnesty came out before the lockout. His Fantasy value likely won't change much depending on where he goes, but with his robust skill set, he could change the fortunes of everyone around him wherever he lands.
2. Chris Kaman, Los Angeles Clippers ($11.3 million in 2011-12, $12.2 million in 2012-13) / 3. Mo Williams, Los Angeles Clippers ($9.3 million in 2011-12, $17 million from 2012-14): The fact that they have two amnesty candidates despite one of the league's best young nucleuses and have spent much of the last decade picking at the top of the draft just shows you how poorly run the Clippers' franchise has been for a long time. Still, each of these players represents an intriguing amnesty candidate from a Fantasy perspective, for different reasons. Kaman remains one of the best centers in the league when healthy, as he showed with an 18.5 points per game, 9.3 rebounds per game showing in 76 games in the 2009-10 campaign. Unfortunately, of the last four years, he's only played in 60 percent of his team's games. He's likely to split time next season with DeAndre Jordan, the young athletic center who averaged a double-double per 36 minutes last year while blocking 1.5 shots per game. If Kaman stays with the Clippers, both of their Fantasy values will be hurt, but if Kaman moves on, it could put two extra nightly double-double players into the player pool in one move.
Williams would actually be an interesting Fantasy point guard if he stayed with the Clippers, as tossing alley-oops to Blake Griffin might be the easiest way to grab assists in the league. If he's amnestied, he'd likely lose much of his playmaking responsibility and find himself lacking minutes and relegated to a spot-up shooting role.
4. Richard Hamilton, Detroit Pistons ($12.6 million in 2011-12 and 2012-13): Reports have surfaced that the Pistons seem content to stand pat and not use amnesty right away, however if they did, Hamilton would be a perfect candidate. Hamilton's production has waned in recent years, and he found himself benched last season for insubordination, so it seems like he would be a candidate to get released at some point. If he does, he would be a perfect fit on a contender like Chicago and would immediately become their starting shooting guard next to Derrick Rose, a great place for anyone to land.
5. Baron Davis, Cleveland Cavaliers ($13.9 million in 2011-12, $14.8 million in 2012-13): Davis' value is tied directly to how interested he is in applying himself and whether he's in shape or not. At 32, the latter isn't as likely as the former to consistently happen, but Davis is always an interesting player when he has a chip on his shoulder. He upped his shooting rates, finding an elite 3-point shot after his trade to Cleveland last year. If he can maintain that stroke and his playmaking ability, he could become a very interesting Fantasy option on a contender. The Lakers and Heat have long been mentioned as options if he becomes available, and his value would likely go up on either, as he'd find himself playing with a plethora of playmakers who would let him shoot wide open jump shots all night long.
6. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors ($9.8 million in 2011-12, $10.6 million in 2012-13): Calderon likely won't be an amnesty casualty because of production. There's still value in his game, as he upped his assist-per-game number to a career high 8.9, making him a consistent double-double threat. From a Fantasy perspective, he's a pretty good point guard option. What's interesting about Calderon is, while he's a likely candidate for the amnesty clause, it may not happen right away. The Raptors are in no rush to rebuild, so would rather get value for Calderon if possible. If not, they are content to wait on the decision. That's what makes this so interesting. His Fantasy value could change a lot if he moves, but nobody knows when that move could happen.
7. Richard Jefferson, San Antonio Spurs ($9.3 million in 2011-12, $21.1 million from 2012-14): Jefferson found himself with his lowest minutes per game since his rookie season, as the Spurs transitioned from a defensive-minded team to one of the NBA's top offensive teams. While he did increase his shooting rates to the best of his career, he took fewer shots per 36 minutes than at any other point in his career, so his scoring continued to fall. He'll likely never get back to the 20 points per game highs of his peak. The 31-year-old might be able to still put up decent rebound and scoring numbers if he goes to the right team without hurting you in any categories. However, it's difficult to see anyone giving him a starting role, so his best chance might be going to a team like the Clippers, who could be looking to make a run and need experience on the wing.
8. Rashard Lewis, Washington Wizards ($22.15 million in 2011-12, $23.8 million 2012-13): Despite being something of a punch line in NBA circles, there's a valuable NBA and Fantasy player somewhere in Lewis, and he showed a little bit of that in limited time with Washington last year. He upped his shooting efficiency and rebounding numbers in 32 games with the Wizards. If he gets on the right team, his unique ability to drain the three, grab boards and post up smaller forwards could be useful. If he finds himself in a situation like the Lakers, he could be looking at a lot of wide open threes, which would greatly help his value.
9. Gilbert Arenas, Orlando Magic ($19.2 million in 2011-12, $43.1 million from 2012-14): Once a quality volume scorer and decent stat sheet stuffer, there's not much Arenas does well at this point. Injuries have sapped him of his explosiveness, and he has not shot better than .350 from three-point range since 2005. He doesn't have much of a Fantasy impact on his own, but ridding themselves of his contract could be the key to the Magic being able to add talent to surround Dwight Howard and keep him around. Arenas isn't worth a look in Fantasy leagues, but somehow he might be the key to the future of the NBA's most dominant center, which remains one of the top storylines for Fantasy owners to follow in the coming months.
10. Luke Ridnour, Minnesota Timberwolves ($3.7 million in 2011-12, $8.3 million from 2012-14): Ridnour isn't a classic amnesty candidate, as the Timberwolves aren't currently paying him all that much. And he's not a Fantasy world beater, though he's a solid steady option in deeper leagues. He provides totally unspectacular consistency, shooting a high percentage across the board, limiting turnovers and putting up middling points and assist numbers. The reason his case carries some interest is because he's the only thing standing between Spanish phenom Ricky Rubio and a full-time starting gig. He may be the starter even with Ridnour, but the Timberwolves would likely want Ridnour to provide some consistency, as Rubio's flashes of brilliance will likely be weighed down by struggles adapting to the game. If Ridnour is let go, it could open Rubio up to 30-plus minutes per night from the word "go."
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