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Week 10 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em

Fantasy Writer
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With the All-Star break past us now, the second half of the NBA season officially begins with Week 10 (Feb. 27-Mar. 4), and the push for the playoffs starts now. Your league's trade deadline is probably coming up, so the chances to shore up parts of your roster that are lacking are running out.

With this in mind, it's more important than ever that you start the right guys every week, and for Week 10 the one player you'll want to trust for sure is Kings' guard Isaiah Thomas.

Thomas, the last player taken in the 2011 NBA Draft, was only inserted into the starting lineup for the Kings just last week. In his four games at the helm of the offense, he has brought some semblance of order to one of the league's messiest offenses.

Thomas has led the Kings above the 100-point mark in three of four games and, more importantly for Fantasy owners, has taken on a big part of the scoring and play-making load. Thomas is averaging 19.5 points and 6.5 assists per game in his four starts while making more than half of his shots from the field.

At just 5-foot-9, there are some concerns about whether Thomas will be able to continue taking on 35-plus minutes per game; however, he has shown the ability to bring together the talented but inconsistent pieces of the Kings' offense and as long as he keeps doing that, the playing time will be there.

In Week 10, the Kings face Utah and Phoenix, two bottom-10 defenses, as well as the Clippers, a below-average one, and the Lakers. With how well he's been playing, Thomas looks like an extremely useful Fantasy play. There's no reason to expect it not to continue this week.

Guards

Sleepers for Week 10
Player % Started
1. Matt Bonner, F, Spurs 13
2. Jason Richardson, G, Magic 32
3. Greivis Vasquez, G, Hornets 47
4. Jamal Crawford, G, Trail Blazers 47
5. Thaddeus Young, F, 76ers 53
6. Derrick Favors, F, Jazz 0
7. Marreese Speights, F, Grizzlies 29
8. Jason Thompson, F, Kings 21
9. Amir Johnson, F, Raptors 23
10. Samuel Dalembert, C, Rockets 42

Start 'Em

Mo Williams, Clippers (MIN, @SAC, @PHO, @HOU): Williams has actually been struggling with his shot quite a bit in the month of February, hitting just 35.2 percent of his attempts from the field. Normally that would be a cause for concern, but with five days off between games and, more importantly, four games against teams that rank no better than 17th in the NBA in defense, I like his chances to begin to bounce back in the second half. He has seen his minutes increase to just over 30 per game in the month, so he'll still have his chances to put up numbers. Count on the sharpshooter to figure things out.

Leandro Barbosa, Raptors (@HOU, @NO, MEM, GS): Toronto has been a Fantasy nightmare ever since Andrea Bargnani got hurt. It seems like every night a new player steps up to try to fill the scoring load left in Bargnani's wake. Barbosa has been part of that rotating cast of fill-ins all year, going for 15-plus about as often as he has gone for single digits. It's been somewhat maddening trying to figure them out, but with matchups against a couple of lower-end defenses, Barbosa's got a shot to put up a couple of nice lines, as he put up double-digit points in four of five games prior to the break.

Sleeper Alert: Vince Carter, Mavericks (NJ, @MEM, @NO, UTA): More Man than Amazing at this point, the former superstar has actually transitioned somewhat nicely into a much smaller role for the Mavericks than he been accustomed to. The 35-year old is displaying a career-best three-point stroke and is putting up his best shooting percentage from the field since 2007-08. His skills fit what Dallas likes to do, and he's still capable of showing flashes of his old self, as he did in a 20-point game against the Lakers before the break. The days of nightly excellence are long gone, but against teams like New Jersey and Utah with poor defenses, Carter can still be useful.

Sit 'Em

Stephen Jackson, Bucks (WAS, @BOS, @ATL, @ORL): Jackson has battled injuries some this year, most recently a hamstring issue that cost him the last two games prior to the All-Star break. However the bigger issue derailing Jackson's season is just a bad fit in Milwaukee with coach Scott Skiles. Skiles wasn't keen on Corey Maggette last season, and he seems to have lost interest in Jackson in much the same way. Jackson is averaging just 19.1 minutes per game in February and there is no indication that he and Skiles have patched things up.

Baron Davis, Knicks (CLE, @BOS): In the wake of the crazy run Jeremy Lin is on, it's funny to think back to the middle of January, when the Knicks were biding their time, waiting patiently for Davis to come rescue them. Well, he's back. And he has made one shot out of 12 attempts in his first three games back. Some Fantasy owners might have been holding out hope Davis could provide their roster with a mid-season boost, but early returns look terrible so far. With just two games on the schedule, the chances for a return to his Golden State heyday are extremely slim in Week 10.

Bust Alert: Joe Johnson, Hawks (GS, MIL, OKC): A knee injury forced Johnson to miss the last two games before the All-Star break, plus all of the festivities during the weekend. And while his absence from the All-Star game is considered more of a precautionary measure than anything else, Fantasy owners might not want to rely on Johnson, especially because the Hawks play a back-to-back. Coach Larry Drew hasn't shied away from resting players if they aren't 100 percent this season, so Johnson could miss a game during this scoring period, which would definitely limit his value.

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Forwards

Start 'Em

Grant Hill, Suns (MIN, LAC, SAC): The Suns offense hasn't been nearly as potent this season as in season's past, and a large part of that has to be the result of Hill finally playing his age for long stretches. The 39-year old had managed to play better than expected in his previous years in Phoenix, however he has seemed to hit a wall this season, connecting on a career-low 41.6 percent of his shots. He is starting to turn things around recently, scoring 13.6 points per game over his last five, and in Week 10 the Suns get to face some opponents that will likely try to keep up with their fast-paced offense. Hill seems to be getting back to his age-defying ways, making him a useful Fantasy start once again.

Danny Green, Spurs (CHI, CHA, DEN): The Spurs have been gone from home so long (last played there Feb. 4,) they probably won't even mind that they have to host the Bulls in the first game back. And if the Bulls spoil their homecoming, they've got the third and second-worst defensive teams in the NBA by points allowed waiting for them afterwards. This bodes well for Green, who appeared to be peaking prior to the break, scoring 16 in back-to-back contests, including one against this same Denver team he faces in Week 10. He also put up a season-high 24 in the first meeting against Denver this season, so expect him to continue his strong run.

Sleeper Alert: Bismack Biyombo, Bobcats (@DET, @SA, NJ): Biyombo is still incredibly raw offensively, as expected, however he is starting to showcase the elite shot-blocking and rebounding skills that convinced the Bobcats to use the No. 7 overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft on him. The Bobcats moved him to the starting lineup nine games ago and in that span, Biyombo is averaging 5.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game in just 26.7 minutes. At this point, Biyombo only really holds value in Rotisserie formats because of his shot blocking and rebounding, but if you're lacking in those categories, look his way.

Sit 'Em

Tyler Hansbrough, Pacers (GS, @NO): The former first-round pick showed signs of living up to some of the hype last season, however he has regressed badly this year and is showing little signs of turning things around. Hansbrough is shooting just 41.6 percent from the field in February, yet he somehow managed to raise his field goal percentage in that time. His minutes are getting more and more rare, and if it were not for a 22-point outburst in a blowout win before the All-Star break, his numbers would be even worse. Some Fantasy owners are still relying on the former UNC star, but with just two games in this scoring period, they simply shouldn't expect much.

Michael Beasley, Timberwolves (@LAC, @LAL, @PHO, @POR): Beasley is still an undeniably talented scorer, the kind who can put up points in any number of ways but prefers to operate in isolation and create for himself. On last year's Wolves team, the one that was headed nowhere but the lottery, that was fine. But this year, the Wolves have a purpose and a plan, and Beasley seemingly has yet to figure out where he fits. He has been moved to the bench, and has put up a handful of big games, however he has failed to top double-digits in any of the team's last five. Beasley's spot in the rotation is not secure right now, so Fantasy owners cannot rely on him in the immediate future.

Bust Alert: Danny Granger, Pacers (GS, @NO): The Pacers have improved this season despite their best player taking a major step back. Granger is still averaging a solid 18.0 points per game, however he is shooting just 38.2 percent from the field on the year and isn't showing any signs of improvement, as he shot 37.8 in the month of February. With only two games on the schedule, Granger would have to seriously reverse this season-long trend to make him a high-end option for Week 10.

Centers

Start 'Em

DeJuan Blair, Spurs (@HOU, PHI): Blair is currently enjoying the finest season of his career, however it has not been without its ups and downs. He started off the season on fire, but hit a stretch of eight games at the end of January and beginning of February where he failed to score in double-digits. He is starting to turn that around recently, capping a four-game double-digit scoring streak by tying a career-high with 28 points in the last game before the break against Denver. Blair seems to have overcome that mid-season wall and the break can only help his balky knees. He might struggle against Chicago in the first game back, but a repeat matchup with the Nuggets looms, making him an attractive option.

Sleeper Alert: Zaza Pachulia, Hawks (GS, MIL, OKC): The Hawks have begun to lean on Pachulia more as the season has gone on, giving him 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10. Pachulia is never going to be a big scoring threat, however he is averaging 8.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, .9 blocks and 1.9 steals per game over that time span, making him a useful option in Rotisserie formats and a No. 2 Fantasy center in most others.

Sit 'Em

Brook Lopez, Nets (@DAL, @BOS, @CHA): I remain wary of relying on a big man who is returning from a major foot injury earlier than expected. Lopez is listed at 265 pounds; that's a lot of weight to be putting on a surgically-repair foot. Even if the risk of re-injury was not present, the foot is going to cause him problems moving forward. He was listed here last week, and I'm putting him back on because the same concerns that existed last week weren't settled by his two-game comeback. Fantasy owners are obviously hoping Lopez will provide a big playoff-run boost, but it's just too risky to rely on him right now, especially against tough matchups in Dallas and Boston.

Bust Alert: Nene, Nuggets (POR, @HOU, @SA): Nuggets coach George Karl told the Denver Post last week that he's not sure Nene will be able to get back to being his old self this season as he continues to deal with leg injuries. "His conditioning, being out this long, how we keep him in shape and how we get him to be a 35-minute player might not happen," Karl told the paper. Nene has been less effective than normal when healthy this year, shooting 52.0 percent from the field, well below his career rate of 56.1 percent. On top of that, he has missed one third of the team's games. He may be able to return from a lingering calf injury in Week 10 after the extended layoff, but it doesn't sound like he's going to be receiving full-time minutes anytime soon.

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Player News
Aaron Gray
Gray to remain in Toronto
Aaron Gray, C, TOR
5/23/2013
News: TSN.ca reported last week that Raptors forward Linas Kleiza and center Aaron Gray picked up their player options for the 2013-14 season. Kleiza's option will pay him $4.6 million, while Gray will make $2.6 million, in the final years of both of their deals.
Analysis: Gray averaged just 2.8 points per game over the course of 42 games, and he saw his role dramatically reduced as the team leaned on younger options. He will likely assume a similar role for Toronto this season, and should be ignored in most Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Linas Kleiza
Kleiza picks up option
Linas Kleiza, SF, TOR
5/23/2013
News: TSN.ca reported last week that Raptors forward Linas Kleiza and center Aaron Gray picked up their player options for the 2013-14 season. Kleiza's option will pay him $4.6 million, while Gray will make $2.6 million, in the final years of both of their deals.
Analysis: Kleiza did not play after Dec. 28, thanks in part to lingering issues with his surgically-repaired knee. He averaged just 7.4 points on 33.3 percent shooting in the 20 games he appeared in, and is unlikely to be worth targeting in any Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Carl Landry
Landry torn on opt-out decision
Carl Landry, PF, GS
5/23/2013
News: Warriors forward Carl Landry would like to return to Golden State, but he has an opt-out clause for next season's $4 million contract. He has yet to choose whether to do so, and he told the Contra Costa Times Wednesday that it is the hardest decision he has faced in his career. “The Warriors are home whether I opt in or out," he said. "Hopefully, I can spend the rest of my career here because this is a very special place. Everything here is what you want: the city, the fans, the front office, the coach, the teammates. You can’t ask for anything more.”
Analysis: Landry would probably be underpaid at $4 million next season, so he would likely be turning down millions of dollars to remain on what is essentially a one-year deal. Landry averaged 10.8 point and 6.0 rebounds per game for the Warriors in just 23.2 minutes per game, and he could get a much bigger role on another roster. We will keep an eye on his free agency as it moves forward, but Landry is likely to be more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day no matter where he ends up.

Charlie Villanueva
Villanueva picks up fifth-year option
Charlie Villanueva, PF, DET
5/23/2013
News: Predictably, Pistons forward Charlie Villanueva picked up his option for the 2013-14 season, a deal that will pay him $8.5 million. Villanueva is entering the final year of a five-year, $37.7 million contract.
Analysis: Villanueva appeared in 69 games this season, averaging a career-low 6.8 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. With the Pistons continuing to rebuild, it is unlikely that he sees a larger role than that this season, so Fantasy owners should ignore him in most Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Anderson Varejao
Varejao doing better
Anderson Varejao, C, CLE
5/23/2013
News: Cavaliers center Anderson Varejao has been taken off blood thinners, a sign that he has recovered from the blood clot issue that ended his season. According to The Plain Dealer, Varejao is expected to be ready for the start of training camp.
Analysis: Varejao was in the midst of the best season of his career, before quad surgery and the ensuing developments with a blood clot. He averaged 14.1 points and 14.4 rebounds per game prior to the injury, both of which are by far career highs. Varejao has emerged as a very solid Fantasy option over the last few years, however he has also missed 149 games over the last three seasons. He is a major injury risk heading into the season, but he should still be gone by the middle rounds in most Fantasy leagues on Draft Day.

Pablo Prigioni
Prigioni wants to stay in NBA
Pablo Prigioni, PG, NY
5/23/2013
News: Knicks guard Pablo Prigioni becomes a free agent after his rookie season, and he reportedly wants to stay in the NBA rather than return to the Spanish League. It might just depend on what his wife says, according to the New York Post. Prigioni is set to become a free agent July 1, and is expected to look for a one-year contract worth around $2 million.
Analysis: Prigioni ended up moving into the starting lineup for the Knicks, but he did not have much of an impact this season. He averaged 3.5 points and 3.0 assists per game in 16.2 minutes. After showing what he can do, he might be able to get a bigger role next season, but he should probably still be ignored until the very end of most Fantasy formats.

Bradley Beal
Beal waiting to be cleared
Bradley Beal, SG, WAS
5/23/2013
News: Wizards guard Bradley Beal has yet to be cleared for basketball activities, nearly two months after being shut down due to an ankle and right leg injury. According to the Washington Post, Beal is still a week or so away from getting back on the court. “It’s always frustration,” Beal said Thursday. “But at the same time, I have to stay positive, make sure I’m doing what I’m supposed to do. Making sure I’m able to take care of myself and just stay on top of it. Basically just being patient and when I get out there, I’ll get out there.” Beal is lifting weights, riding a bike and swimming, but it mostly limited to free throws on the court for now. He is expected to be ready to go by the time the team opens training camp.
Analysis: Beal became just the seventh player to make the all-rookie first team as a teenager, a pretty good indication of the kind of upside he has when healthy. He missed 26 games due to a variety of ailments, mostly related to his ankles. He finished the season averaging 13.9 points per game on 41.0 percent shooting, however he improved dramatically as the season went on. Beal shot 47.1 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from three-point range after the All-Star break, with 16.5 points per game. If that is any sign of what Beal can do when healthy, Fantasy owners should be very excited to see him in his second season. Plan on targeting Beal in the middle rounds on Draft Day, with plenty of upside.

Amar'e Stoudemire
Stoudemire might not start next year
Amar'e Stoudemire, PF, NY
5/23/2013
News: According to his agent, Knicks forward Amar'e Stoudemire was not happy with how the season ended, as he was barely able to contribute in the team's six-game loss to the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. “You know Amar’e, he’s going to work as hard as he can during the offseason,” Happy Walters, Stoudemire’s agent, told the New York Daily News. “It was a tough year, but Amar’e is already looking forward to next season. He’ll be ready.” Knicks coach Mike Woodson would not comment on whether he thinks Stoudemire will return to the starting lineup next season, after the Knicks enjoyed great success with Carmelo Anthony at power forward. Stoudemire came off the bench in all 29 of his regular season games this season, after doing so just 17 times in his previous 10 seasons.
Analysis: Despite eventually needing two knee surgeries, Stoudemire was actually quite productive for the Knicks, when he played. He averaged 14.2 points and 5.0 rebounds per game in just 23.5 minutes, while shooting 57.7 percent from the field, his best mark since 2007-08. Stoudemire may be best suited coming off the bench on the Knicks' current roster, but that probably limits how much playing time he can get on a nightly basis. Given injury concerns and questions about his role on the Knicks, Stoudemire is a risky Fantasy option heading into next season. He should be left for the middle rounds at the earliest on Draft Day.

J.R. Smith
Smith dealt with knee injury in postseason
J.R. Smith, SG, NY
5/23/2013
News: Knicks guard J.R. Smith endured plenty of criticism for his play in the postseason, but now we might have an explanation. According to the New York Post Thursday, Smith spent much of the postseason playing with fluid built up in his left knee. “[Smith’s] been playing hurt,” a source said. “He probably should’ve sat out a couple of games. It’s what Melo had. That’s why he wasn’t driving the ball like he was. That’s why his jump shot wasn’t right, not having the lift.’’ Smith's knee started swelling up in March, but it became a bigger deal in the playoffs, when he shot just 33.1 percent from the field in 11 games.
Analysis: Smith likely cost himself a ton of money as an impending free agent thanks to his poor performance in the postseason, though that might actually help him end up staying with the Knicks long term. The Knicks can only offer Smith around $5 million this offseason due to their salary cap issues, but he might fall into their price range now. Smith's postseason struggles were especially disappointing after the best regular season of his career, as he scored a career-high 18.1 points per game. Assuming Smith returns to the Knicks, he should be able to put up comparable numbers next season, so plan to target him in the middle rounds on Draft Day.

Jared Sullinger
Sullinger expects to be 100 percent by training camp
Jared Sullinger, PF, BOS
5/23/2013
News: Celtics forward Jared Sullinger had a promising rookie season cut short by back surgery, but he expects to be fully healed by the time the team begins prepping for his sophomore season. He told the Boston Herald he is not rushing through recovery from his February surgery, to avoid any potential setbacks. "Everyone says (the word) back with a question mark, but you might as well put an X through that," he said. "I had surgery, I’m taking my time so there won’t be any recurring injuries." Sullinger detailed his rehabilitation process as well, noting he expects to be healed by the start of training camp. "It’s a 10-week process," he said. "Every two weeks we bump it up 10 percent. September, October I’ll be 100 percent to go. I met with the doctor about 10 weeks ago and he said it’s a full go."
Analysis: Sullinger averaged just 6.0 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in 45 games before the injury, but that was in just 19.8 minutes per game. The team's first-round pick from last season is expected to be a big part of their plans moving forward, but the team's roster is up in the air with a number of veterans possibly on the way out this offseason. If Sullinger proves healthy and snags a role that gives him 30-plus minutes, he could emerge as a useful Fantasy option in his second season. However, with the injury risk hanging over him, Fantasy owners should avoid looking his way until the later rounds on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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