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2012-13 Draft Prep: Busts for Draft Day

Fantasy Writer
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There were plenty of players to come out of nowhere and break out a season ago. But in turn, there were also players who failed to live up to expectations. We call those busts in Fantasy and the 2012-13 season will spring a new batch of underperformers.

Whether it's a player drafted too high or someone coming off a breakout campaign that simply cannot duplicate it, busts are inevitable in Fantasy. Owners who have scoured the rosters to keep up with the offseason moves probably already have a pretty good idea of who may not be able to perform as expected.

We at CBSSports.com have compiled a list of candidates we feel will take a step back this season.

Guards

Raymond Felton, Knicks: Many believe Felton will be in for a bounce-back campaign after returning to New York in a trade with Portland in the offseason. Don't jump to conclusions just yet. He averaged 17.1 points with 9.0 assists and 1.8 steals in 54 games with the Knicks in 2010-11, albeit that was under former coach Mike D'Antoni. Point guards have always thrived in D'Antoni's run-and-gun offense and Felton was no exception. New Knicks coach Mike Woodson, however, runs a slower-paced offense and prefers everything to go through Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire for the most part. While Felton should be able to put up more than the 11.4 points with 6.5 assists he averaged last season for the Trail Blazers, we would advise Fantasy owners not to overreach for the 28-year-old on Draft Day as he probably won't be able to match the production from his first tenure in the Big Apple.

Steve Nash, Lakers: Nash led the league in assists for the sixth time in the last eight seasons a year ago and while his scoring fell off a bit, he remained a solid option in Fantasy. An offseason move to the Lakers has all the makings of hindering his value, however. He gives Los Angeles a true facilitator on offense but with the likes of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard expected to do the bulk of the scoring, the 38-year-old could see his points fall into single digits more nights than not. Nash has already seen his scoring decrease each of the last three seasons and shot just 39 percent from beyond the arc a year ago, which was his worst percentage since 1998-99. Owners know that the offense in Los Angeles runs through Bryant so Nash could be in for a huge letdown in Fantasy this season.

Forward

Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks: Things are already looking bad for Nowitzki as he has been slowed by a knee injury during the preseason and could end up undergoing surgery due to swelling. Good news is that he overcame this issue last season but showed up out of shape and needed an extended break to get back on track. It looks as though time is finally catching up to the 34-year-old. His numbers took a dip in 2011-12 as he averaged 21.6 points with 6.7 points and shot 45.7 percent from the field, which was his worst shooting percentage since his rookie campaign. Nowitzki's run as a must-start Fantasy forward could be coming to an end so owners should keep that in mind heading into 2012-13.

Brandon Bass, Celtics: Bass enjoyed a career campaign in his first season in Boston as he averaged 12.5 points with 6.2 rebounds and nearly a block per game while becoming a reliable option in Fantasy. However, early reports out of Boston are that the team loves rookie forward Jared Sullinger and he will likely steal time from the 27-year-old in 2012-13. Sullinger gives the Celtics a versatile big-man that is a slightly better rebounder than Bass and adds a bit more size to their frontline. Bass could also end up coming off the bench, which would limit his role even further and hinder his value in Fantasy, so putting up the numbers he did a year ago could be tough. Owners should not be too eager scoop Bass up before the later rounds on Draft Day as it looks as though he will come back to earth this season.

Ryan Anderson, Hornets: Anderson was one of the bigger surprises in Fantasy last year. After averaging just 8.6 points with 4.5 rebounds through his first 193 games in the NBA, he put up 16.1 points per contest with 7.7 rebounds and shot nearly 44 percent from the floor in 61 games for the Magic. Anderson struggled in the playoffs without Dwight Howard alongside him, however, scoring just 9.6 points with 4.6 rebounds and shooting 34 percent from the field. He was traded to the Hornets in the offseason and could find trouble scoring on a consistent basis in New Orleans. The offense runs through Eric Gordon and with rookie Austin Rivers and Anthony Davis part of the rebuilding process, Anderson will likely play more of a secondary role with the club. The 24-year-old shoots the ball well from the 3-point line (38 percent for his career) but a repeat of his 2011-12 campaign seems unlikely. Anderson is definitely someone we think will be a disappointment in 2012-13.

Centers

Andrew Bynum, 76ers: Bynum put together the dominant campaign Fantasy owners had been waiting for a year ago as he averaged career highs with 18.7 points and 11.8 rebounds for the Lakers. He also played in 60 games for just the third time in his career and shot nearly 56 percent from the field. An offseason move to the 76ers had most owners salivating over the potential numbers he could put up since he would not longer have to share the ball with Kobe Bryant and he immediately became one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference. But, just like it has in the past, injury concerns have begun creeping up during the preseason as the 24-year-old has already received a Synvisc injection on his right knee and was also shut down due to a knee bruise. Bynum had that done each of the previous two seasons but there are also some complaints about his conditioning early on. Bynum has proven to be a must-start Fantasy center when healthy but given his history, owners should temper expectations heading into his first season in Philadelphia.

JaVale McGee, Nuggets: Many people, including us at CBSSports.com, believe this is the season that McGee finally stops frustrating Fantasy owners and takes his game to the next level. After spending the offseason working closely with coach George Karl and Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon, it looks like he's on the right track. However, this is not the first time we have heard this about the 24-year-old as he has appeared on numerous breakout and sleeper lists over the last few seasons. This is why we have decided to list McGee as a possible breakout or bust option this year. While he looks to have the skill set to become one of the elite big-men in Fantasy, owners cannot be blamed for avoiding the hype around McGee again in 2012-13.

Rookies

Dion Waiters, Cavaliers: The Cavs reached a bit for Waiters with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 Draft and he has gotten off to a shaky start in his NBA career. After being compared to Dwyane Wade on draft night, there were reports that he showed up to camp out of shape and his struggles during the preseason have caused him to be pulled off the court at times. Coach Byron Scott thinks Waiters could be a dynamic player in the league but it will likely take some time for the 20-year-old to mature. While he believe Waiters has the ability to become a reliable option in Fantasy down the line, that doesn't seem likely to happen in his first season in the NBA.

Thomas Robinson, Kings: Robinson was one of the more dominant players in college during his junior year at Kansas as he averaged 17.7 points and 11.9 rebounds per contest and led the nation with 27 double-doubles. He could have a hard time getting his numbers on a Kings team that has a ton of scorers, however, and will likely be coming off the bench in his first season in the NBA. His rebounding will likely not be as proficient too as DeMarcus Cousins has been a monster on the boards so far in his career. Keep tabs on Robinson going forward but don't count on him for a ton of production during his rookie campaign.

Royce White, Rockets: White is certainly one of the more interesting Fantasy options among rookies as he has a unique skill set for someone with the 6-foot-8, 260-pound frame. He averaged 13.4 points with 9.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game at Iowa State last season. His battles with an anxiety order, however, have raised some red flags. Due to his fear of flying, the Rockets will allow him to travel for some of the team's road games by bus. While White could end up having a huge role in his first season in the NBA, there is some concern that he could end up missing games due to his travel arrangements. There are simply too many question marks surrounding the 21-year-old to consider him a reliable option in Fantasy heading into his rookie campaign.

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Player News
David West
West limited in practice
David West, PF, IND
5/20/2013
News: The Pacers official team website reports Monday that forward David West was limited in practice due to a strained right calf. The report said when asked if it would be an issue, West said "Nah." The Pacers play at the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday.
Analysis: West did not miss any action because of the calf in the semifinal series against the Knicks. He should be able to suit up against the Heat, but keep an eye on him prior to Wednesday. When healthy and active, West is a must-start Fantasy option in all leagues.

Carmelo Anthony
Anthony to have shoulder checked
Carmelo Anthony, SF, NY
5/20/2013
News: Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony first injured his left shoulder in Game 5 of the first-round series against the Celtics, and after that, repeatedly seemed to have issues with it. On Sunday, a Knicks official told reporters that Anthony is going to have his shoulder examined by a doctor. The club is hopeful that Anthony's injury is not serious and that it will improve with rest and therapy and won't require surgery. After the Game 5 injury, Anthony repeatedly grimaced and grabbed the shoulder on court, and was seen having it treated on the sideline multiple times. The Knicks were eliminated Saturday night 4-2 by the Pacers in Indianapolis.
Analysis: It's good that Anthony's having the shoulder looked at now. If surgery is necessary, he could be back on the floor by the middle of the summer and still be healthy enough to court free agents should the Knicks need him to woo anyone. Keep an eye on what happens with Anthony, and hopefully he's ready for the start of next year without any issues. When healthy and active, Anthony is a first-round pick in the majority of formats.

Dwyane Wade
Wade ready for Pacers
Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA
5/20/2013
News: The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports good news from Heat practice Sunday for guard Dwyane Wade. His hobbled knee limited him in the first-round series against the Bucks, and he aggravated it in Game 4 vs. the Bulls, but then returned to help close out the Bulls in Games 4 and 5. Going forward, it's not that Wade can or cannot play, it's to what level he can be effective. Facing a physical, bruising defense in Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals, Wade's going to be even more banged up. Luckily, he still has another two days to see if he can get even a little bit better. But for the most part, this is kind of standard operating procedure for Wade. Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers is Wednesday in Miami.
Analysis: It sounds like Wade will be fine for Game 1 against the Pacers, and hopefully he doesn't suffer a setback with his knee moving forward in the playoffs. When healthy and active, Wade is a standout Fantasy option in all leagues, and we hope this knee problem is rectified during the offseason so he's back to 100 percent for the start of next season.

Dwight Howard
Howard might sign with Rockets
Dwight Howard, C, LAL
5/20/2013
News: With the Lakers hoping for a swift decision from Dwight Howard on his free agency this summer, the All-Star center has given no indication he will rush the process and has privately indicated he plans to give strong consideration to multiple teams, league sources told CBSSports.com NBA Insider Ken Berger. Though Howard is adamant his free agency not be marred by the circus-like environment that surrounded his departure from Orlando last summer, word already has spread to multiple levels of his support staff that Howard re-signing with the Lakers is far from a done deal. With six weeks to go before Howard becomes an unrestricted free agent, the team that is said to intrigue him the most is the Rockets, according to multiple people briefed on internal conversations surrounding Howard's free-agent decision. The Rockets have a young star, James Harden, who has proved himself worthy of playing the leading role for the franchise; a budding 3-point shooting threat in Chandler Parsons; a defensive-minded coach in Kevin McHale; and Omer Asik, the kind of 7-footer Howard is believed to want next to him in the frontcourt.
Analysis: The Mavericks represent another franchise that intrigues Howard, and Dallas is a minor transaction or two away from having enough room to sign Howard outright as an unrestricted free agent. Howard plans to explore all such options, and a person briefed on his plans told CBSSports.com that there are "several" teams the free-agent center is "going to take a hard look at." The Lakers still have a strong chance of signing Howard, especially from a financial standpoint, so keep an eye on what develops. No matter where Howard plays this season he would remain a No. 1 Fantasy center in all leagues and worth at least a pick in Round 2.

J.R. Smith
Smith likely staying with Knicks
J.R. Smith, SG, NY
5/20/2013
News: Knicks shooting guard J.R. Smith should be ready to cash in this offseason. After making a little more than $5 million over his last two years with theKnicks, he has a player option for next season that he will undoubtedly forgo in hopes of signing a more lucrative contract. After winning Sixth Man of the Year he should have plenty of suitors in need of a scorer lining up to pay him for his services. However, he stated within the past week that he wants to retire as a Knick. This could be a ploy to drive up the negotiating price for Smith, or he could be sincere. The New York Post Smith is expected to opt out of his contract and re-sign with the Knicks in a four-year deal starting at about $5 million because the Knicks own his early-Bird rights rules.
Analysis: Smith averaged a career-high 18.1 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 42.2 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from 3-point range. He beat out Jamal Crawford and Jarrett Jack for the 2012-13 Sixth Man of the Year award, the first of his career. Keep an eye on what he does this offseason, but no matter where he signs he would be worth at least a mid-round pick, with his best value staying with the Knicks based on the way he played this past season.

Kawhi Leonard
Leonard drops 18 in Game 1
Kawhi Leonard, SF, SA
5/19/2013
News: Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard (knee) returned to the starting lineup for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Grizzlies. Leonard logged 30 minutes as he scored 18 points on 7 of 10 shooting from the field, including 4 of 5 from beyond the arc. He also chipped in with two rebounds, two steals, one assist and a blocked shot in a 105-83 victory.
Analysis: Leonard's knee problems were a "mild cause of concern" for the Spurs heading into the conference finals. Leonard averaged 12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game on the season, while shooting 49.6 percent from the field. His role will only continue to grow, so Fantasy owners have to like Leonard's development patter. He will be a big-time breakout candidate heading into next season, worth a mid-round pick on Draft Day.

Tyson Chandler
Chandler scores two in elimination game
Tyson Chandler, C, NY
5/19/2013
News: Knicks center Tyson Chandler worked his way around a back issue as he returned to action in Game 6 against the Pacers Saturday night. Chandler was held to just two points on 1 of 4 shooting. He also chipped in with six rebounds in a 106-99 defeat.
Analysis: Chandler will have the entire offseason to recover from his back issue. The 7-footer averaged 10.4 points and 10.7 rebounds over 66 games -- marking the second time he has averaged a double-double. He also shot 63.8 percent from the field, but only averaged 20.1 Fantasy points per week as injuries really hampered his production down the stretch. Fantasy owners should plan on scooping him up in the earlier rounds in draft formats next fall.

George Hill
Hill returns to action
George Hill, PG, IND
5/19/2013
News: Pacers point guard George Hill, who missed Game 5 with a concussion, returned to the starting lineup Game 6 against the Knicks. Hill scored 12 points on 2 for 10 shooting. He grabbed five boards and dished out four assists in a 106-99 win.
Analysis: Hill seems to be healthy enough to play and will now earn a three days of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals. Hill posted career highs in points (14.2), assists (4.7), rebounds (3.7) and steals (1.1) during his first full year as a starter and finish as the 27th highest scoring guard, in terms of Fantasy points, in all standard formats. Fantasy owners should plan on targeting him in the middle rounds of most draft formats next fall.

Kevin Garnett
Ainge has no answers for Garnett
Kevin Garnett, PF, BOS
5/17/2013
News: The Boston Globe reports that Celtics forward Kevin Garnett has two years left on his contract but is considering retirement. He turns 37 Sunday. “I don’t think I have the answers that Kevin will want,” Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said. “So I’ve got to figure there’s a lot to do [before we talk], and I think there’s a lot of questions in Kevin’s mind, as there is every year, to determine whether he’s coming back.I’m not ready to answer everything that he will want to know.”
Analysis: Garnett had another productive year, averaging 14.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 49.6 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the foul line. He will likely return if the Celtics keep Paul Pierce, but that's just speculation. Keep an eye on what happens with the Celtics, and if Garnett is back consider him a solid No. 2 Fantasy center worth a mid-round pick.

Paul Pierce
Pierce, Celtics could part ways
Paul Pierce, SF, BOS
5/17/2013
News: The Boston Globe reports the Celtics have to decide by June 30 whether to buy out Paul Pierce’s contract at $5 million. Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said the sides have not had discussions, but an NBA source said Pierce’s family is already beginning to prepare for relocation from Boston, assuming the Celtics will execute the buyout or trade his expiring contract in the offseason.Pierce struggled mightily during the playoffs, and Ainge was asked whether the longtime Celtic was injured. “Paul’s always battling little things,” said Ainge. “I think Paul’s healthy, but he played so hard and carried such a heavy load. Paul had a terrific year this year, but in the playoffs, New York did a good job of taking away his strengths and taking advantage of some of our weaknesses. But I thought Paul had a terrific year.”
Analysis: This report makes it seems as though Pierce could be gone, but we'd be surprised if that happens. That said, the Celtics do need to start rebuilding at some point. Keep an eye on what happens with Pierce and where he ends up. He would remain a quality starting option in all leagues no matter where he plays, but we'd like him best if he returned to Boston.

 
 
 
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