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Offseason Extra: Who's on the move?

by | Fantasy Writer
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The NBA offseason is a time of certain uncertainty. What's Stan Van Gundy going to do with the Pistons' roster? Which young free agents will leave the nest? How's this much-hyped draft going to shake out?

But the biggest questions may boil down to a handful of not-exactly-satisfied stars and what uniform they'll be wearing by the end of next season. I'll run through a handful of Fantasy stalwarts, weighing in on whether they're on the move, staying put or possibly even teaming up with one another.

LeBron James

ADP Rank: No. 1 overall
2013-2014 season: Finished third in total Fantasy points

As expected, LeBron James opted out of his current deal, forgoing $20.6 million and becoming an unrestricted free agent. Whether this means James is looking for a new home or simply hoping to renovate his current one remains to be seen.

His future likely depends more on Dwyane Wade and what he chooses to do with his player option. If he opts in, James will probably look for a team with more to offer in terms of cap room and a younger, hungrier roster. If Wade opts out, then it likely means the big three is working to stay intact. Bosh will likely follow suit.

Regardless, for Fantasy purposes, consider LeBron on the downturn. He's basically played five seasons' worth of games in the last four years. It's clear that he's worn out and could use some help. Therefore, it would make sense that all the teams that attempt to woo him, including Miami, will sell him on how they'll ease his burden and relieve some of the pressure he felt in the quest for a threepeat. Talent-wise, Houston and the Clippers make the most sense, but they represent completely different Fantasy outlooks. In Houston, he'd be the central facilitator -- meaning it's not far-fetched to envision 10-plus assists per game. But with the Clippers, Chris Paul would still run the show and James would be forced to play with a true point guard for practically the first time in his life.

Still, the most realistic scenario is a return to Miami with a younger, more athletic supporting cast. If that's the case, expect near identical numbers and efficiency from James. Younger Fantasy studs like Stephen Curry, John Wall and Blake Griffin are nipping at his heels, but I've always taken more stock in a player's situation than his overall talent level. James' decision No. 2 will likely have a ripple effect that changes roles and rosters across the league, so wait until the dust has settled to start assessing draft stock.

Kevin Love

ADP Rank: No. 6 overall
2013-2014 season: Finished second in total Fantasy points

Kevin Love is as good as gone, but his destination isn't so clear. The Warriors came close, but talks stalled out. The Celtics have the picks, but Minnesota wants players too. Can Cleveland tempt them with the No. 1 pick? Will a draft-day trade ultimately decide his fate?

The thing to remember for Fantasy is that wherever Love ends up, he's not really going to be better statistically than he was last season. His usage rate in Minnesota this past season was in Blake Griffin/Al Jefferson territory, so he was already very much the focal point. The only thing to watch out for in reassessing his value is just how good the team around him will be. More All Stars equals fewer opportunities to dominate, which is great for a guy trying to make the playoffs for the first time in his career but not so great for his Fantasy value.

Right now he's a top-five pick, and he'll stay that way if he moves to Boston. But should the Celtics land other top free agents or Love get traded to a talented team like the Warriors or Rockets, you might consider dropping Love to top-ten range. I just can't see Love improving on, or even maintaining, 25-plus points, 12-plus rebounds and 4-plus assists per game in a crowded lineup. Only seven guys in the history of the league have achieved that line for a season. And of those seven, only Elgin Baylor and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar were able to do it in back-to-back seasons.

Boston seems like the best spot for Love as far as Fantasy is concerned. He'll have basically a more athletic Ricky Rubio at the helm in Rajon Rondo and will still be an extremely high-usage player, as opposed to in a more crowded lineup with the Warriors. Those looking to draft Love next season should hope he avoids any big three/super team scenarios as not to cut down on his astronomical production.

Carmelo Anthony

ADP Rank: No. 9 overall
2013-2014 season: Finished seventh in total Fantasy points

As the Knicks' sad, sad season was winding down, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Anthony would choose to terminate his contract early and see what else is out there. Now he's done so, meaning he'll see what other teams can offer him before deciding whether or not to spend another highly lucrative waste of a year in New York.

Phil Jackson's already shown his inexperience in the front office by losing out on coaching candidate Steve Kerr (once thought to be a sure-thing) and by getting fined $25,000 in his pursuit of still-in-the-playoffs Derek Fisher. I'm still not convinced that Jackson actually cares about turning the Knicks around so much as he was bored and wanted back into the league without having to pinky whistle on the sidelines again. $12 million is a great cure for boredom.

If Anthony stays, look forward to another ultra-high usage season where he's asked to do everything every game -- great for Fantasy. If he bolts, it will likely to try and form another "super team" in Chicago, Boston or elsewhere, meaning he'll get to relax and worry more about developing chemistry than dragging his team into the playoffs.

One thing to watch when he does decide is whether he'll stick to the stretch four he's been playing or move back to the perimeter where he began his career. Having the paint mostly to himself allowed Anthony to snatch a career-high 8.1 rebounds per game this past season. Expect that number to go down if he moves back to the three.

Rajon Rondo

ADP Rank: No. 66 overall
2013-2014 season: Averaged 34.8 Fantasy points per game

If there's a blockbuster trade about to go down in the league, I'd put my money on the Celtics being a part of it. It's not just the plethora of first round picks in their back pocket. Rajon Rondo is no spring chicken anymore. At 28 years old and coming off knee surgery, he doesn't strike me as the patient type – especially considering he won an NBA Championship in his second year and continued to go deep into the playoffs for the next several years.

The East is weak, and Danny Ainge has the guile and assets to make major upgrades in the talent surrounding Rondo. Kevin Love makes the most sense, as we've already seen how productive he can be with a tall, pass-first point guard. Rondo is pretty much a more athletic Ricky Rubio. But rumor has it the Celtics could be gearing up to bring two big names to Boston this offseason. Carmelo Anthony maybe? Chandler Parsons possibly?

There's also a small chance that the blockbuster pendulum swings the other way and Rajon Rondo is dealt, pushing the Celtics to go all-in on the total rebuild. That doesn't seem like Ainge's style though, and something clearly has to give here. It just doesn't make sense to surround a 10-plus assist player with raw youngsters only to watch him walk away in 2015. That's why they'll value for him now by dealing him, or give him a reason to stay beyond next season by surrounding him with competitive talent.

Rondo was still awesome for Fantasy in the 30 games he gave us last season, but the frequent rest and the unpredictable teammates made conditions less than ideal. I'm hoping Ainge whips up some 2007 trade magic, allowing Rondo free lanes to the basket with ample targets to choose from. The waiting hands of Jared Sullinger, Jeff Green and Aaron Gordon won't be enough to keep Rondo or Fantasy owners happy.

Kyle Lowry

ADP Rank: No. 68 overall
2013-2014 season: Finished ninth in total Fantasy points

Considering where he ended the season compared to where he was drafted, Lowry was easily the biggest surprise in Fantasy. But that production might not have been enough for him to get paid like a top-tier point guard.

One of the biggest problems is there aren't a whole lot of other situations that make sense for him. There are only so many teams that might offer Lowry in the first place. When guys like Jameer Nelson, Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings and George Hill are owed $8 million next season from their respective teams, it’s hard to find a franchise that would be willing to pay Lowry what he earned with last season’s production. Maybe the Lakers? Can the Heat afford him? Who knows?

Chandler Parsons

ADP Rank: No. 53 overall
2013-2014 season: Finished 45th in total Fantasy points

Speaking of restricted free agency, the Rockets are leaning toward declining the super affordable team option for Parsons' contract, meaning he too could be on the semi-open market. Since Houston has also been rumored to be searching for another All Star, declining the Parsons option seems like an insurance policy in case they don't land anyone big.

If they pick it up, they'll pay him a tiny amount next season, but that could open the door for a huge pay day in unrestricted free agency next summer. Instead, they'll likely give Parsons a more moderate raise sooner, even if it means allowing him to field offers from the rest of the league. But unlike point guard, forward is not so deep, meaning an ambitious team could end up with Parsons next season if it pushed his price high enough.

One thing the Rockets would miss out on is his 4.0 assists per game, specifically when it comes to entry passes to Dwight Howard. With no true point guard, Houston relied heavily on Parsons' ability to handle the ball at 6-foot-9 -- much like recent championship Lakers teams did with Lamar Odom. It will be very interesting to see if this translates to a less talented team – the kind of team that might be inclined to pay Parsons more than the Rockets next season.

The majority of restricted free agents end up staying put, but this one seems like it has the best chance of going the other way. Parsons' basketball value was magnified by how little Houston had to pay him. I can't say for sure that the money needed to shake him loose will be well spent. In the end his fate will likely be determined by how the higher-priced trade chips fall – those being the first three guys of this column.

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Player News
Rockets forward Josh Smith scores 23 points in losing effort
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:36 am ET) Rockets forward Josh Smith scored 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting from the field, including 4 of 5 from 3-point range, in Houston's 121-109 loss to the Mavericks Sunday.

It was Smith's first 20-plus point playoff game since 2013 when he scored 29. Smith, who also went 3 of 6 from the free throw line, added six rebounds and three assists to his totals.

He and the Rockets will look to close out Dallas in Game 5 Tuesday.


Mavericks guard Monta Ellis scores 31 to force Game 5
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:33 am ET) Mavericks shooting guard Monta Ellis scored 31 points on 13 of 21 shooting from the field, including 2 of 6 from 3-point range, in Dallas' 121-109 win over the Rockies Sunday.

It was Ellis' second consecutive playoff game with at least 30 points and is averaging 26.3 points per game in the series. Ellis also pulled down six rebounds and dished out three assists in the contest. 

He and the Mavericks will look to stay alive in Game 5 from Houston Tuesday.


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(4/26/2015) Center Marcin Gortat delivered 21 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in the Wizards' 125-94 victory on Sunday to close out the Raptors in the first round of the playoffs, 4-0.

Gortat shot eight of nine from the floor and also added two steals and a block in the win.

"I guess I'm the weakest link out there, so they're going to leave me open a lot," Gortat said. "One day, if I'm going to play a perfect game, I might crack the Wilt Chamberlain record of 100 points."


Report: Cavaliers F Kevin Love may miss two weeks
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
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Love still must undergo an MRI on Monday, but the report says that sources within the organization feel the injury is severe enough to keep Love sidelined for a while. 

Love felt that Celtics forward Kelly Olynyk deliberately injured him during the game. 


Blake Griffin grabs playoff career-high 19 rebounds in Clippers' win
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(4/26/2015) Forward Blake Griffin pulled down a playoff career-high 19 rebounds in the Clippers' Game 4 victory over the Spurs on Sunday.

Griffin scored 20 points and also collected seven assists in the win.


Grizzlies G Mike Conley to undergo facial surgery Monday
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(4/26/2015) Grizzlies guard Mike Conley, already ruled out of Monday's Game 4, will travel back to Memphis and undergo facial surgery to repair multiple fractures, per TNT's Lewis Johnson. 

Conley left Saturday's game and did not return after getting hit by an inadvertent elbow from the Trail Blazers' CJ McCollum during the third quarter. Beno Udrih will start for Memphis in Conley's place. 

It remains unclear how much time Conley would miss after the surgery. If the Grizzlies advance to the Western Conference semifinals, they would play the Golden State Warriors. 


Mavericks' Felton probable, Jefferson questionable for Game 4
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(4/26/2015) Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said pregame that he expected guard Raymond Felton (hamstring) to play in tonight's Game 4 against the Rockets but that veteran forward Richard Jefferson (calf) remained a question mark, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.  

Felton tweaked his hamstring in Game 3 and did not return after playing 13 minutes. Jefferson has been dealing with a toe injury but has played in all three games of the series thus far. 

The Mavericks are 3-point underdogs. 


Cavaliers' J.R. Smith 'nervous as hell' about possible suspension
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(4/26/2015) Cavaliers guard J.R. Smith, who was ejected from Sunday's series clinching victory after striking the Celtics' Jae Crowder in the face and drawing a flagrant foul 2, said there was "nothing malicious" about the foul, per ESPN.com.

Smith now faces a possible league suspension for the next round of the playoffs after the NBA reviews the penalty. Smith said he was drawn into the action by Crowder pushing him in the back on the play. 

"I know I'm nervous as hell to see what could come out of this," Smith said. 


Clippers F Matt Barnes (sore right shoulder) probable for Game 5
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(4/26/2015) The Clippers have announced that forward Matt Barnes (sore right shoulder) is probable for Tuesday's Game 5 of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series against the Spurs, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Barnes started in the Clippers' Game 4 win on Sunday, scoring four points in 23 minutes.


Chris Paul scores game-high 34 points as Clippers even series
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/26/2015) Guard Chris Paul scored a game-high 34 points Sunday in the Clippers' 114-105 win that evened their Western Conference Quarterfinals series with the Spurs at 2-2.

"It's more than just shooting the ball," Paul said. "Our defense was better and our offensive execution (was better). I think I got more shots because of the tempo of the game that we played at. We played downhill, we set screens; we're tough when we play like that."

Paul collected seven assists, three rebounds and went 10 for 10 from the free throw line in the victory.


 
 
 
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