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Fantasy Writer

2014 Draft Prep: 2014 rookie tiers

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The consensus surrounding last year's rookie class was that it would be one of the worst in years, but even the most pessimistic predictions couldn't have seen that coming. The No. 1 overall pick came into the season out of shape and ended up scoring in double figures just six times, and only four players finished the season averaging double digits in scoring.

Things were so bad, only one player broke the 2,000 Fantasy point barrier. That was Michael Carter-Williams, who also led all rookies in rebounds and assists. While that sounds impressive, he also shot an abysmal 40.5 percent from the field and 26.4 percent from three-point range.

We've seen better rookie classes, in other words.

The 2014 class should be much better. Though I only have one rookie projected to top the 2,000 Fantasy point mark again, this class looks to be much deeper, to say the least. We have a handful of players likely to open the season as quality starting options, with prime breakout candidates waiting for the right role behind them.

In fact, most of this year's class can be grouped together to in a few ways, based on how we see their season playing out. Andrew Wiggins and Julius Randle might put together similar seasons by the end, but the paths they take to get there could vary widely. Here's how I see it playing out.

A tier of his own

Jabari Parker, F, Bucks

Though he wasn't the top pick, Parker very well could have been. He joins a team that has a pretty crowded rotation, but you have to believe they will find playing time for him wherever they can. The fact that Parker should be able to credibly play both small forward and power forward will help him stay on the floor. On a team that ranked 26th in the league in offensive rating and 28th in points per game, the offensively gifted Parker could be the team's first option from day one. He should be off the board within the first five rounds on Draft Day.

Starting material

Parker may end up the best Fantasy rookie this season, but he certainly won't be the only rookie worth looking at.

Andrew Wiggins, F, Timberwolves

Though the move from Cleveland to Minnesota is probably going to leave Wiggins out of the playoffs for a long time, it should be a boon to his Fantasy value. Wiggins is a tremendously skilled player, though one who is still quite raw, so he won't be a model of consistency or efficiency from day one. Still, he lands in a nice enough spot, on a Timberwolves team that can ease him in while still featuring him in the starting lineup. Wiggins should be capable of filling up the box score right away, and will go in Round 6 or 7 in most category-based leagues.

Nerlens Noel, C, 76ers

Though obvious questions persist regarding Noel's health and offensive talent, he could be a dynamic Fantasy option as a rookie. What helps is that, despite missing his entire first season due to ACL surgery, he has one year under his belt practicing and traveling with an NBA team, which should help his transition. Just ask Blake Griffin. Noel isn't the same type of player as Griffin, but he seems particularly well-suited for Philadelphia's wide-open style of play. Noel will probably not be the focal point of Philadelphia's offense, but he might end up leading the league in combined steals and blocks while flirting with a double-double every night, given the team's insane pace. He is someone you want on your team.

Elfrid Payton, G, Magic

Payton probably belongs a mini-tier below these other two, but he might not be too much less valuable than them. He spent three years in college playing against a lower level of competition, but also joins the NBA as a 20-year-old, bringing a nice combination of youth and experience to the table. Payton was a score-first point guard in college, but he likely will not fit that role for the Magic, who already have some established scorers in the starting lineup. The transition from the Sun Belt Conference to the NBA might be a tough one, but Payton doesn't have much competition for playing time in Orlando, so he'll get the chance to fail. For a rookie, that's a good thing.

Searching for a role

Julius Randle, F, Lakers

When the Lakers drafted Randle, I had him right behind Jabari Parker in my rookie rankings, as he figured to be the centerpiece of the Lakers' frontcourt following the departures of Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman. Unfortunately, the team opted to add three players to the mix via free agency, muddying the waters and blocking Randle's path to Fantasy relevance. Randle still profiles as a very productive player, but the presence of Carlos Boozer, Jordan Hill and Ed Davis surely complicates matters. The Lakers seem intent on avoiding their inevitable rebuild, but circumstances may force them to accept the inevitable at some point this season. If and when the Lakers open up a starring role for him, Randle could be a key contributor for Fantasy owners.

Marcus Smart, G, Celtics

There is no arguing with Smart's talent, as he was one of the nation's top college players and a lottery talent for each of his two years at Oklahoma State. Unfortunately, the talented combo guard finds himself on a roster featuring a franchise-caliber point guard in Rajon Rondo, as well as a shooting guard in Avery Bradley who just received a pretty massive four-year contract. Smart should be able to fill in ably at both guard spots, but there are fair questions about his fit with both players, especially Rondo, given their lack of three-point range. Smart will probably end up spending much of his season in the weird, in-between role backing up both spots, though there is one roadmap to Fantasy relevance -- a trade of Rondo. Rondo might be mentioned in countless trade rumors until this February, and that light at the end of the tunnel should be enough to keep Smart on your roster even if his production doesn't quite justify it.

Nik Stauskas, G, Kings

On last year's version of the Kings, there wasn't much room for role players to thrive, with three players ranking in the top 15 in usage rate. The de-facto trade of Isaiah Thomas for Darren Collison should free up plenty of shots around the team, and Stauskas could be a beneficiary of that -- assuming he wins a starting role. Stauskas will have to beat out Ben McLemore, last year's lotto pick who struggled mightily throughout his rookie season. If he can do that, he might just be a worthwhile starting option in deeper category-based formats.

Zach LaVine, G, Timberwolves

Given his incredible athleticism, LaVine is right there with Dante Exum as the most tantalizing prospects in this rookie class. LaVine has more of a track record, though he did spend just one season at UCLA, where he wasn't much of a featured option. LaVine seems like the type of prospect who spends most of his rookie season toiling on the bench and working on his game away from the bright lights, but the potential for the Wolves' season to go south in a hurry means he could get his chance eventually. LaVine probably isn't worth drafting in most yearly leagues, but be prepared to pounce on the waiver wire if the Wolves start selling off veterans like Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer.

Borderline options

Dante Exum, G, Jazz

At 19 years old and with very little experience against high-level competition, Exum is the great unknown in this draft class. It is easy to dream on what he might turn into, but Fantasy owners simply have to consider him a risk coming into his rookie season. His upside is undeniable, but mostly because we don't know enough about him to identify any warts. The Jazz do have a need for a secondary ball-handler, and they aren't particularly deep at shooting guard, so he will be worth taking a chance on in the latter half of your draft just to take the shot on his upside.

Aaron Gordon, F, Magic

Like his teammate Payton, Gordon seems pretty likely to have a set role in Orlando's rotation. Unfortunately, he has much more competition than Payton for playing time, and is likely to see a much smaller role as a result. Gordon could step into Orlando's rotation as the best defender around, which should help him get playing time at both small forward and power forward. However, he will be vying for playing time with the likes of Channing Frye, Maurice Harkless and Tobias Harris, likely limiting just how much he can play right away. Gordon should be a solid contributor across the board, but might be more of a borderline Fantasy starter as a rookie.

Reserves

K.J. McDaniels, F, 76ers; Doug McDermott, F, Bulls; Cleanthony Early, F, Knicks; T.J. Warren, F, Suns; Noah Vonleh, F, Hornets; Adreian Payne, F, Hawks; James Young, F, Celtics, Rodney Hood, F, Jazz; Shabazz Napier, G, Heat; Clint Capela, F, Rockets; Kyle Anderson, F, Spurs; Jordan McRae, G, 76ers

This promises to be a rookie class deep with contributors and any number of players on this list could step into their team's rotation from day one. ... McDermott is probably the best-suited to emerge as a Fantasy option based on his incredible scoring ability, though he is unlikely to show it off in a deep Chicago frontcourt. He is an injury or two away from making an impact. ... McDaniels has a diverse skill set on a team that could really use anyone who can play, but the Philly rotation is such a question mark going into the season, you simply don't know what you might get from him.

Keeper-leagues only

Joel Embiid, C, 76ers; Bruno Caboclo, F, Raptors; Mitch McGary, F, Thunder; Jusuf Nurkic, C, Nuggets; Spencer Dinwiddie, G, Pistons; Walter Tavares, C, Hawks; Dario Saric, F, 76ers; Nikola Mirotic, F, Bulls

The Sixers used their two lottery picks this year on players who almost certainly will not contribute this season. This has become a recurring theme for them, so Fantasy owners can safely ignore both Embiid and Saric in yearly leagues. ... The rest of these players would need miracles to find consistent roles, unless they really impress early.

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Player News
76ers PF Nerlens Noel: 'I'm feeling a lot more confident'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:34 am ET) 76ers power forward Nerlens Noel delivered season highs of 17 points and 12 rebounds Saturday and expressed confidence in his play after the game.

''I am really starting to feel like my legs are under me now,'' Noel told the Associated Press. ''(After) not playing basketball in so long, I am already starting to feel my timing is a lot better and I'm feeling a lot more confident.''

''That was Nerlens' best game. So everybody in Philadelphia is seeing what we're seeing. It's slow but it's coming,'' coach Brett Brown said.

Noel will look to build on the excellent outing Monday when the 76ers host the Blazers.


Jazz PG Trey Burke scores season-high 20 vs. Pelicans
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:25 am ET) Jazz point guard Trey Burke scored a season-high 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting, including 2 of 5 shooting from three-point range, in his team's 106-94 loss to the Pelicans Saturday.

Burke was just 1 of 8 from the field in a two-point outing Friday but bounced back big on night later. He also managed to tally four assists and one block in 34 minutes Saturday. Burke will try and build on the excellent performance Monday against the Bulls.


Spurs SF Danny Green scores season-high 21 vs. Nets
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:20 am ET) Spurs small forward Danny Green scored a season-high 21 points on 8 of 10 shooting, including 5 of 7 shooting from behind the arc, in his team's 99-87 win over the Nets Saturday.

Green also set a season-high scoring mark Friday by putting up 18 points in Minnesota but topped that performance Saturday, making a season-best 80 percent of his shots and sinking five three-pointers for the first time this season. He also racked up seven rebounds, three blocks and two assists in 33 minutes off the bench. Green will look to stay hot Wednesday against the Pacers.


Rockets G Patrick Beverley (hamstring) expects to play Monday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:09 am ET) Rockets guard Patrick Beverley said after suffering a hamstring injury Saturday that he expects to play Monday, the team announced.

"Tweaked it a little bit, I didn't wanna push it like I did the Miami game," Beverley said of his hamstring.

Beverley returned from a hamstring issue on Nov. 4 to play 30 minutes against the Heat but had to miss another four games while recovering after aggravating the injury. He was able to play four games before being struck by another hamstring injury Saturday.


Wizards C Marcin Gortat notches double-double vs. Bucks
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:06 am ET) Wizards center Marcin Gortat scored 10 points on 5 of 12 shooting while grabbing 13 rebounds in his team's 111-100 win over the Bucks Saturday.

Gortat has been able to put together a string of good scoring totals, but Saturday's double-double was his fourth of the season, with his 13 boards matching a season high. He matched another season high by blocking three shots while also kicking in two assists in 35 minutes of action. Gortat's next matchup will come Tuesday against the Hawks.


Timberwolves C Gorgui Dieng doubles up vs. Kings
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:01 am ET) Timberwolves center Gorgui Dieng scored 12 points on 5 of 10 shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds in his team's 113-101 loss to the Kings Saturday.

It was just the second double-double of the season for Dieng, though he did manage 10 rebounds Friday as well while scoring nine points. His 12 points and 10 rebounds both matched season highs. Dieng also managed two steals, two blocks and one assist in 39 minutes Saturday. He'll look to build on the solid performance Wednesday against Milwaukee.


Kings guard Ben McLemore scores season-high 22 vs. Minnesota
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) Kings guard Ben McLemore scored a season-high 22 points on 9 of 17 shooting, including 4 of 9 shooting from three-point range, in his team's 113-101 win over the Timberwolves Saturday.

McLemore had managed just 21 points in his previous three games combined before exploding Saturday. He nearly notched his first double-double by racking up a season-high nine rebounds while also tallying three assists and one steal in 41 minutes. The Kings will look for three wins in a row when they face the Pelicans Tuesday.


Timberwolves C Nikola Pekovic to be evaluated Monday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) Timberwolves coach Flip Saunders said Saturday that center Nikola Pekovic will be evaluated Monday, the Associated Press reports.

Pekovic is dealing with wrist and foot injuries. If it's determined that he'll need at least 10 more days before returning, the team could receive a roster exception to add another player. Pekovic has averaged 11.9 points and 8.1 rebounds while shooting 42.2 percent in nine games.


Kevin Love's 23 points not enough for Cavaliers
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) Cavaliers forward Kevin Love scored a team-high 23 points in a 110-93 loss to the Raptors Saturday.

Love also added seven rebounds, but he is still trying to find a rhythm in the offense. For the season, he has recorded six double-doubles. The Cavaliers next play Monday against Orlando.


Jazz SF Gordon Hayward scores team-high 31 vs. Pelicans
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) Jazz small forward Gordon Hayward scored a team-high 31 points on 9 of 16 shooting, including 2 of 3 shooting from three-point range, in his team's 106-94 loss to the Pelicans Saturday.

Hayward did a fantastic job on the offense end while also making 11 of his 14 free-throw attempts, but his night was overshadowed by a career-best 43-point performance from Pelicans forward Anthony Davis. However, Hayward did manage eight rebounds, three assists, two steals and one block in 39 minutes while posting his third 30-point performance of the season. He'll look to keep rolling Monday against the Bulls.


 
 
 
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