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2014 Draft Prep: 2014 rookie tiers

Fantasy Writer
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The consensus surrounding last year's rookie class was that it would be one of the worst in years, but even the most pessimistic predictions couldn't have seen that coming. The No. 1 overall pick came into the season out of shape and ended up scoring in double figures just six times, and only four players finished the season averaging double digits in scoring.

Things were so bad, only one player broke the 2,000 Fantasy point barrier. That was Michael Carter-Williams, who also led all rookies in rebounds and assists. While that sounds impressive, he also shot an abysmal 40.5 percent from the field and 26.4 percent from three-point range.

We've seen better rookie classes, in other words.

The 2014 class should be much better. Though I only have one rookie projected to top the 2,000 Fantasy point mark again, this class looks to be much deeper, to say the least. We have a handful of players likely to open the season as quality starting options, with prime breakout candidates waiting for the right role behind them.

In fact, most of this year's class can be grouped together to in a few ways, based on how we see their season playing out. Andrew Wiggins and Julius Randle might put together similar seasons by the end, but the paths they take to get there could vary widely. Here's how I see it playing out.

A tier of his own

Jabari Parker, F, Bucks

Though he wasn't the top pick, Parker very well could have been. He joins a team that has a pretty crowded rotation, but you have to believe they will find playing time for him wherever they can. The fact that Parker should be able to credibly play both small forward and power forward will help him stay on the floor. On a team that ranked 26th in the league in offensive rating and 28th in points per game, the offensively gifted Parker could be the team's first option from day one. He should be off the board within the first five rounds on Draft Day.

Starting material

Parker may end up the best Fantasy rookie this season, but he certainly won't be the only rookie worth looking at.

Andrew Wiggins, F, Timberwolves

Though the move from Cleveland to Minnesota is probably going to leave Wiggins out of the playoffs for a long time, it should be a boon to his Fantasy value. Wiggins is a tremendously skilled player, though one who is still quite raw, so he won't be a model of consistency or efficiency from day one. Still, he lands in a nice enough spot, on a Timberwolves team that can ease him in while still featuring him in the starting lineup. Wiggins should be capable of filling up the box score right away, and will go in Round 6 or 7 in most category-based leagues.

Nerlens Noel, C, 76ers

Though obvious questions persist regarding Noel's health and offensive talent, he could be a dynamic Fantasy option as a rookie. What helps is that, despite missing his entire first season due to ACL surgery, he has one year under his belt practicing and traveling with an NBA team, which should help his transition. Just ask Blake Griffin. Noel isn't the same type of player as Griffin, but he seems particularly well-suited for Philadelphia's wide-open style of play. Noel will probably not be the focal point of Philadelphia's offense, but he might end up leading the league in combined steals and blocks while flirting with a double-double every night, given the team's insane pace. He is someone you want on your team.

Elfrid Payton, G, Magic

Payton probably belongs a mini-tier below these other two, but he might not be too much less valuable than them. He spent three years in college playing against a lower level of competition, but also joins the NBA as a 20-year-old, bringing a nice combination of youth and experience to the table. Payton was a score-first point guard in college, but he likely will not fit that role for the Magic, who already have some established scorers in the starting lineup. The transition from the Sun Belt Conference to the NBA might be a tough one, but Payton doesn't have much competition for playing time in Orlando, so he'll get the chance to fail. For a rookie, that's a good thing.

Searching for a role

Julius Randle, F, Lakers

When the Lakers drafted Randle, I had him right behind Jabari Parker in my rookie rankings, as he figured to be the centerpiece of the Lakers' frontcourt following the departures of Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman. Unfortunately, the team opted to add three players to the mix via free agency, muddying the waters and blocking Randle's path to Fantasy relevance. Randle still profiles as a very productive player, but the presence of Carlos Boozer, Jordan Hill and Ed Davis surely complicates matters. The Lakers seem intent on avoiding their inevitable rebuild, but circumstances may force them to accept the inevitable at some point this season. If and when the Lakers open up a starring role for him, Randle could be a key contributor for Fantasy owners.

Marcus Smart, G, Celtics

There is no arguing with Smart's talent, as he was one of the nation's top college players and a lottery talent for each of his two years at Oklahoma State. Unfortunately, the talented combo guard finds himself on a roster featuring a franchise-caliber point guard in Rajon Rondo, as well as a shooting guard in Avery Bradley who just received a pretty massive four-year contract. Smart should be able to fill in ably at both guard spots, but there are fair questions about his fit with both players, especially Rondo, given their lack of three-point range. Smart will probably end up spending much of his season in the weird, in-between role backing up both spots, though there is one roadmap to Fantasy relevance -- a trade of Rondo. Rondo might be mentioned in countless trade rumors until this February, and that light at the end of the tunnel should be enough to keep Smart on your roster even if his production doesn't quite justify it.

Nik Stauskas, G, Kings

On last year's version of the Kings, there wasn't much room for role players to thrive, with three players ranking in the top 15 in usage rate. The de-facto trade of Isaiah Thomas for Darren Collison should free up plenty of shots around the team, and Stauskas could be a beneficiary of that -- assuming he wins a starting role. Stauskas will have to beat out Ben McLemore, last year's lotto pick who struggled mightily throughout his rookie season. If he can do that, he might just be a worthwhile starting option in deeper category-based formats.

Zach LaVine, G, Timberwolves

Given his incredible athleticism, LaVine is right there with Dante Exum as the most tantalizing prospects in this rookie class. LaVine has more of a track record, though he did spend just one season at UCLA, where he wasn't much of a featured option. LaVine seems like the type of prospect who spends most of his rookie season toiling on the bench and working on his game away from the bright lights, but the potential for the Wolves' season to go south in a hurry means he could get his chance eventually. LaVine probably isn't worth drafting in most yearly leagues, but be prepared to pounce on the waiver wire if the Wolves start selling off veterans like Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer.

Borderline options

Dante Exum, G, Jazz

At 19 years old and with very little experience against high-level competition, Exum is the great unknown in this draft class. It is easy to dream on what he might turn into, but Fantasy owners simply have to consider him a risk coming into his rookie season. His upside is undeniable, but mostly because we don't know enough about him to identify any warts. The Jazz do have a need for a secondary ball-handler, and they aren't particularly deep at shooting guard, so he will be worth taking a chance on in the latter half of your draft just to take the shot on his upside.

Aaron Gordon, F, Magic

Like his teammate Payton, Gordon seems pretty likely to have a set role in Orlando's rotation. Unfortunately, he has much more competition than Payton for playing time, and is likely to see a much smaller role as a result. Gordon could step into Orlando's rotation as the best defender around, which should help him get playing time at both small forward and power forward. However, he will be vying for playing time with the likes of Channing Frye, Maurice Harkless and Tobias Harris, likely limiting just how much he can play right away. Gordon should be a solid contributor across the board, but might be more of a borderline Fantasy starter as a rookie.

Reserves

K.J. McDaniels, F, 76ers; Doug McDermott, F, Bulls; Cleanthony Early, F, Knicks; T.J. Warren, F, Suns; Noah Vonleh, F, Hornets; Adreian Payne, F, Hawks; James Young, F, Celtics, Rodney Hood, F, Jazz; Shabazz Napier, G, Heat; Clint Capela, F, Rockets; Kyle Anderson, F, Spurs; Jordan McRae, G, 76ers

This promises to be a rookie class deep with contributors and any number of players on this list could step into their team's rotation from day one. ... McDermott is probably the best-suited to emerge as a Fantasy option based on his incredible scoring ability, though he is unlikely to show it off in a deep Chicago frontcourt. He is an injury or two away from making an impact. ... McDaniels has a diverse skill set on a team that could really use anyone who can play, but the Philly rotation is such a question mark going into the season, you simply don't know what you might get from him.

Keeper-leagues only

Joel Embiid, C, 76ers; Bruno Caboclo, F, Raptors; Mitch McGary, F, Thunder; Jusuf Nurkic, C, Nuggets; Spencer Dinwiddie, G, Pistons; Walter Tavares, C, Hawks; Dario Saric, F, 76ers; Nikola Mirotic, F, Bulls

The Sixers used their two lottery picks this year on players who almost certainly will not contribute this season. This has become a recurring theme for them, so Fantasy owners can safely ignore both Embiid and Saric in yearly leagues. ... The rest of these players would need miracles to find consistent roles, unless they really impress early.

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Player News
Byron Scott getting close to finalizing starting five
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(9/10/2014) Lakers coach Byron Scott told the Los Angeles Daily News Wednesday he has penciled in four of the five spots for the team's starting lineup, with only the small forward spot left the fill.

Scott plans to start Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill together this season, with Wesley Johnson or Nick Young being considered for the small forward spot. That means rookie Julius Randle and newly acquired guard Jeremy Lin will come off the bench, and he is leaning toward bring Nick Young off the bench as well.


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Rondo is entering the final year of his deal of his contract and is expected to be fully healthy heading into the start of the 2014-15 season. He was limited to only 30 games last season because of his recovery from a torn ACL. He averaged 11.7 points, 9.8 assists and 1.3 rebounds while shooting 62.7 percent from the field and 28.9 percent from downtown over that span.


Chris Singleton catches on with the Pacers
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(9/6/2014) Free agent small forward Chris Singleton agreed to terms with the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday. Terms of the deal were not made public. Singleton averaged 3.0 points and 2.2 rebounds in 25 appearances last season for the Wizards.

Wayne Ellington waived by Sacramento
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9/6/2014) The Kings waived guard Wayne Ellington on Wednesday. Ellington was acquired by Sacramento as part of a four-player trade with the Knicks early August. 

Clippers sign Chris Douglas-Roberts, Ekpe Udoh
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9/6/2014) The Clippers have signed power forward Ekpe Udoh and guard Chris Douglas-Roberts Wednesday. Both players signed a minimum contract worth approximately over $1 million.

Udoh averaged 3.4 points and 3.5 rebounds in 42 games last season for Milwaukee. Douglas-Roberts averaged 6.9 points and 2.4 rebounds in 49 games with Charlotte last season.

Mavericks bring back Bernard James
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9/6/2014) The Mavericks are bringing back Bernard James. He signed a one-year contract with the team on Wednesday. The third-year center averaged 2.1 points, 2.3 rebounds and 7.9 minutes in 76 career games (11 starts) with Dallas.

Raptors ink Greg Stiemsma to one-year contract
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9/6/2014) The Raptors signed center Greg Stiemsma to a one-year, $1 million contract. Stiemsma registered career bests of in rebounds (4.1) and minutes (18.3) per game last season with New Orleans. In 55 games (20 starts) he averaged only 2.9 points.

76ers acquire, then waive Hasheem Thabeet
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9/6/2014) The 76ers acquired center Hasheem Thabeet from the Thunder in exchange for a 2015 protected second round draft pick. The team also received cash considerations from Oklahoma City. Thabeet was immediately waived by Philadelphia. 

Mike Scott stays put with the Hawks
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9/6/2014) Restricted free agent forward Mike Scott agreed to a three-year, $10 million contract with the Hawks. He has the first two years of his deal guaranteed, with a team option in the third year, per the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Scott had a productive 2013-14 campaign, averaging 9.6 points and 3.6 rebounds in 18.5 minutes per game. 

 
 
 
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