In Fantasy Basketball no position is as shallow in talent as center. How shallow, you ask? Think Paris Hilton. Then think of how she could probably grab four or five rebounds per game against some of those sorry excuses for centers you are going to draft on your squad.
Let's take a closer look.
Last season, there were only two centers that averaged at least 20 ppg. They were Yao Ming and Shaquille O'Neal (we count Jermaine O'Neal as a forward for Fantasy purposes in 2006) -- and neither played as much as 60 games due to injury.
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| Don't laugh ... Darko could be a big factor in 2006-07. (Getty Images) |
That's where the top tier of Fantasy centers ends. Four players. Seven other centers averaged in double figures, but most were in the 10 ppg range and could hardly be considered a true No. 1 Fantasy center.
This means that in an average 12-team Fantasy Basketball league that starts two centers, conceivably only one third of the league will get their hands on what can be considered a legitimate Fantasy center. Get your hands on two, and you put yourself in a nice position by cornering the market. Having two top-flight centers in Fantasy play could be like owning two cars during The Great Depression.
BREAKOUTS - We expect these guys to significantly increase their production this season, making them players to target on Draft Day because of their upside and potential to improve. These are players that we think will be considered in the first few rounds in Fantasy Drafts next season.
Andrew Bogut, MIL - He showed signs of brilliance in his rookie season, but it was what the Bucks did in the offseason that makes us think he'll be a player that will make his mark in 2006-07. The trade that sent Jamaal Magloire to Portland cleared the way for Bogut to see major minutes and that will pave the way for more points and rebounds. Expect him to play around 35 mpg this season, allowing him to improve upon his numbers from last year (9.4 ppg, 7 rpg). Despite the bad news about a leg sprain that will force him to miss at least the first few weeks of the season, he will still be worthy of a selection in the middle rounds. Just be certain to back him up with someone you don't mind starting in the interim. The Bucks have deemed the injury as "not serious", but would like to give him time for his sprain to heal. Call us crazy, but we think that this injury will make Bogut a bargain in the overall scheme of things. He'll fall to you at a reasonable price and could pay off big time in the long run.
Nenad Krstic, NJ - Entering his third NBA season, the 7-footer improved his scoring to 13 ppg in 2005-06. He still has room to grow, however, and we think he'll take the next step this season. He's already an excellent shooter and in Rotisserie formats his shooting percentage will be pivotal. Look for the Nets to include him more than ever in their offensive sets and he could even rival forward Richard Jefferson as the team's second scoring option in many instances. Jason Kidd should begin to defer many of his scoring chances to Krstic as the Nets consider him a legitimate scoring threat, allowing Kidd to do what he does best -- distribute.
Eddy Curry, NY - The heart ailment that threatened to end his career was not an issue in his first season in New York and he finished second in the NBA in FG percentage. With Isiah Thomas at the reigns, he'll likely want to make the center that he invested so much in look good. Keep in mind that Curry is only 23 and has only just now begun to come into his own. He'll improve upon his 13.6 ppg and 6 rpg in 2006-07 and will entrench himself among the league's new class of young centers with Bogut, Krstic and Ming. He is an above-average scorer in the paint and should become a big part of the Knicks' offense as the season goes on.
SLEEPERS - These are the guys who will give Fantasy owners great pleasure in knowing that they took a minimal gamble on them in the later rounds and got a high payoff in return. For some, the payoff is higher than others, but expect these players to become the object of desire at some point for Fantasy owners who didn't think to draft them.
Darko Milicic, ORL – No. We're not crazy. Darko is really going to get his first chance to flourish in the NBA this season and he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder as he tries to shed the bust label that he picked up while with the Pistons. It’s that very label that will allow him to fall to you in the lower rounds. He is an excellent shot blocker, averaging 2.1 bpg in 30 outings with the Magic last season and there is no telling what a full season of regular playing time will do for his Fantasy value. He can score in double digits and give you about five or six boards per game, making him at least a nice No. 2 option in most formats. He has yet to show us what his ceiling is, but we're all about to find out how high it really is.
Kendrick Perkins, BOS - He is completely recovered from the shoulder surgery that prematurely ended his 2006-07 season and is ready to contribute on a prime level. He'll have to battle Theo Ratliff for minutes early on, but that shouldn't be a big deal. He's a developing force in the paint and should approach seven boards and two blocks a contest this season. If he can get his scoring into the double digits, he'll make Fantasy owners very glad that took him in the late rounds.
Jake Tsakalidis, MEM - The 7-foot-2 center is one player that will benefit from the absence of Pau Gasol for the first couple of months of the season. Don't expect many games like the jewel he posted on March 8 at Seattle last season (17 points, 15 rebounds), but he can certainly carry some of the offensive load that will be up for grabs early on and he's going to give Fantasy owners their money’s worth if they take him in the later rounds.
BUSTS - By bust, we don't mean that these guys will become towel-waving bench warmers at some stage this season. This label just means that we think these players will not live up to their draft value, thus causing Fantasy owners much stress and sometimes even bodily injury (we’ve seen it happen, but won’t mention any names).
Marcus Camby, DEN - He posted the kinds of numbers that made Fantasy owners salivate last season (12.8 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 3.3 bpg and 1.4 spg), but managed to play in just 56 games. Fantasy owners who take him as their No. 1 center will be forced to take at least two other centers that they wouldn't be embarrassed to start on any given week on short notice. He's a very fragile player and is known to miss games for random injuries. He's the kind of player that could disappear at the worst times for his Fantasy owners and you should expect at least a slight dip in numbers this season as the rest of the NBA will now remember that he is still around and will game plan accordingly. He'll be taken in the early rounds and will carry too high of a price tag for our liking this season.
Zaza Pachulia, ATL - We've already voiced our displeasure at the way Fantasy owners have made him a trendy choice to break out this season and haven't changed our stance. The Hawks signed free agent Lorenzen Wright and drafted Shelden Williams in the offseason, somewhat clouding the team's frontcourt situation. We expect him to post numbers similar to that of last season (11.7 ppg, 7.9 rpg), but not to surpass them. That means he should be drafted as a No. 2 center in the middle rounds on Draft Day, not as a No. 1 in the early going.
Ben Wallace, CHI - A change in scenery for Wallace could mean a dip in production - especially on a team already loaded with young frontcourt talent. He's always been a one dimensional player (6.6 ppg career average). It's hard to see him improving on his numbers of last season (7.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg), but the potential is there for a dip. The Bulls will have a higher FG percentage as a team than the Pistons, so there will be less scraps for him to clean up in the paint. Not to mention that he is entering the twilight of his career. Look to draft him as a luxurious No. 2 Fantasy center and not a No. 1 if at all possible.
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