There's this guy. His name is LeBron. He's pretty good. Our consensus
No. 1 overall pick in Fantasy drafts, even. LeBron James is
obviously the top forward in Fantasy Basketball.
You don't need us to tell you that. You also don't need to be told that Kevin
Garnett, Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki are clear-cut,
no-brainers to target in the first round come Draft Day.
No sir -- or ma'am -- that's not why they pay us the big bucks (not lots
of money, they just pay us in oversized bills). What you want to
know is who to target in the middle rounds that will help make the
difference for you this season.
What you need to know is who will be this season's Boris Diaw
or Gerald Wallace. Both were players who went overlooked in
drafts last season and ended up as the driving force behind many
championship squads.
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Charlie Villanueva will need to step up immediately in Milwaukee.
(Getty Images)
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Diaw came into last season, his first in Phoenix after playing two with
Atlanta, averaging a little over four points, three rebounds and two
assists per contest. He was hardly a player that would be as much as an
afterthought on Draft Day. As luck would have it, he flourished in the
Suns' free-flowing system and burst onto the Fantasy scene in a big way.
He finished last season averaging very respectable totals of 13.3 ppg,
6.2 apg and 6.9 rpg. Odds are, if you were savvy (and lucky) enough to
snag him off the waiver wire in the early going, the move more than paid
off.
Wallace had aleady posted a semi-breakout year prior to last season, but
nothing like his numbers from 2005-06. He was a Rotisserie dream,
averaging 15.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 2.5 spg and 2.1 bpg. You name it,
he did it last season. He was able to fill out stat sheets and was a big
bonus to Fantasy owners, despite the fact that his season was shortened
due to injury.
We like to try to give you a heads up on who to seek out as potential
sleepers and breakouts, but don't stop there. Make sure to look at
players that start to break out early and fit well in new situations.
You never know, a player that was seemingly irrelevant elsewhere can
become Fantasy gold in a new environment.
Also, look at young players on bad teams. Historically, they have been
rich with Fantasy potential despite poor results on the floor. Look
through the depth charts of teams like the Hawks, Celtics and
Trailblazers. These are young teams (and there are others) with plenty
of up-and-coming talent that should be ready to blossom at some stage
this winter. Follow those teams early and often and be ready to pounce
on any and all players that look like they can contribute.
You may strike out often, but you could also hit a home run if you're
lucky.
BREAKOUTS - We expect these guys to significantly increase
their production this season, making them players to target on Draft Day
because of their upside and potential to improve. These are players that
we think will be considered in the first few rounds in Fantasy Drafts
next season.
Charlie Villanueva, MIL - A couple of injuries to key players (Andrew
Bogut, Bobby Simmons) will make him have to step up his game
right out of the gate. Both Bogut and Simmons are expected to miss a
month of action and the former UConn standout will need to be the team's
second option behind Michael Redd by default. Expect him to come
out of the gate strong, surpassing the 13 ppg and around six rebounds he
averaged last season. He'll have the chance to earn the trust of the
team and coaching staff in the first month.
Channing Frye, NY - He bulked up over the summer and is a
favorite of new coach Isiah Thomas. The added muscle will allow him to
improve upon his 5.8 rpg average and should also allow him to become
more active in the paint on the offensive end as well. He shoots at a
high percentage (47.7 percent) and added playing time will automatically
increase his scoring (12.3 ppg last season). The knee ligament that
ended his season prematurely last year is not an issue and he is one of
the building blocks around which the Knicks hope to get back to
respectability.
Andres Nocioni, CHI - Nocioni was a second-half stud last season
and was a monster in the playoffs, averaging 22.3 ppg and 8.8 rpg in six
contests. His defense is what buys him most of his playing time, but we
expect his offense to land somewhere in between what he did in the
playoffs and his production during the regular season (when he averaged
13 ppg and 6.1 rpg). With offensively-challenged Ben Wallace and
aging veteran P.J. Brown in the low-post, Nocioni will be looked
to as a scoring threat along with Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich.
SLEEPERS - These are the guys who will give Fantasy owners
great pleasure in knowing that they took a minimal gamble on them in the
later rounds and got a high payoff in return. For some, the payoff is
higher than others, but expect these players to become the object of
desire at some point for Fantasy owners who didn't think to draft them.
Marvin Williams, ATL - No Al Harrington means more playing
time for the second-year player out of North Carolina. He was the MVP of
the Las Vegas Summer League and will easily reach double digit scoring
this season if he sees more than the 24 minutes per contest he saw last
season. We think he will. He is drawing rave reviews from players and
coaches alike and is ready to make an impact from the first week this
season. He is explosive on the offensive end, but still needs to bulk up
in order to challenge for rebounds. We absolutely love his upside and
the fact that Atlanta needs to build for the future bodes well for his
development.
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Youngster Gerald Green could be a nice sleeper in Boston.
(Getty Images)
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Ryan Gomes, BOS - He became a Fantasy darling last season when
injuries forced him into extended playing time. He can score, rebound
and is a favorite of head coach Doc Rivers. He shoots for a high average
and will be a double-double threat every night if he remains in the
regular rotation. He'll see most of his time at the power forward
position this season and should be able to mirror the numbers he had in
the last two and a half months of last season (roughly 12 ppg and 7 rpg).
Gerald Green, BOS - We obviously like the Celtics as a breeding
ground for young Fantasy talent this season. As his name would indicate,
Green is still very raw, but should fit right in with the Celtics young
core of budding players. He's a fantastic three-point shooter and we
think he'll see heavy minutes at some point this season. Log him under
the "super-sleeper" category, but don't be afraid to use up a roster
space with him in deeper leagues if you can afford it. The payoff could
be significant if he's given a chance to contribute.
BUSTS - By bust, we don't mean that these guys will become
towel-waving bench warmers at any stage this season. This label just
means that we think these players will not live up to their draft value,
thus causing Fantasy owners much stress and sometimes even bodily injury
(we've seen it happen, but won’t mention any names).
Ron Artest, SAC – He's a great player. We like him. We just
don't think he'll be able to live up to a selection in the first three
rounds on Draft Day. He'll be a headache to own even if we don't yet
know the reason why. You can find players with similar numbers (17.6
ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.6 apg) that are much more pleasant to own and are
available at a cheaper price. For instance, Caron Butler averaged
17.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg and 2.5 apg and is going later in drafts than Artest
despite being younger and much more enjoyable to own in Fantasy leagues.
Andrei Kirilenko, UTA – Fantasy owners have been burned by
him two seasons in a row, yet they continue to take him in the first few
rounds. Why? He's averaged 62 games over the last three seasons and
taking him that high in drafts severely handcuffs your chances of
building a well-balanced, deep squad that will contend deep into the
Fantasy season. When he's healthy, he's a beast, but he's already
banged up we haven't even tipped off the season yet. His back is barking
at him and that should raise a red flag for Fantasy owners. Resist the
temptation to take him in the first three rounds on Draft Day.
Peja Stojakovic, NOK - He was a headache for Fantasy owners last
year, but that can be dismissed because of a tumultuous season that
included injuries and a mid-season trade to Indiana. The real issue is
that his scoring has taken a dip in each of the last three seasons and
his knee could once again be a problem in 2006-07. Drafting Peja as
anything more than your No. 2 forward on Draft Day is asking for trouble
You can e-mail your Fantasy Basketball questions to DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com.
Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Basketball in the subject field.
Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the
large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal
responses to all questions.
