There's this guy. His name is LeBron. He's pretty good. Our consensus No. 1 overall pick in Fantasy drafts, even. LeBron James is obviously the top forward in Fantasy Basketball.
You don't need us to tell you that. You also don't need to be told that Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki are clear-cut, no-brainers to target in the first round come Draft Day.
No sir -- or ma'am -- that's not why they pay us the big bucks (not lots of money, they just pay us in oversized bills). What you want to know is who to target in the middle rounds that will help make the difference for you this season.
What you need to know is who will be this season's Boris Diaw or Gerald Wallace. Both were players who went overlooked in drafts last season and ended up as the driving force behind many championship squads.
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| Charlie Villanueva will need to step up immediately in Milwaukee. (Getty Images) |
He finished last season averaging very respectable totals of 13.3 ppg, 6.2 apg and 6.9 rpg. Odds are, if you were savvy (and lucky) enough to snag him off the waiver wire in the early going, the move more than paid off.
Wallace had aleady posted a semi-breakout year prior to last season, but nothing like his numbers from 2005-06. He was a Rotisserie dream, averaging 15.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 2.5 spg and 2.1 bpg. You name it, he did it last season. He was able to fill out stat sheets and was a big bonus to Fantasy owners, despite the fact that his season was shortened due to injury.
We like to try to give you a heads up on who to seek out as potential sleepers and breakouts, but don't stop there. Make sure to look at players that start to break out early and fit well in new situations. You never know, a player that was seemingly irrelevant elsewhere can become Fantasy gold in a new environment.
Also, look at young players on bad teams. Historically, they have been rich with Fantasy potential despite poor results on the floor. Look through the depth charts of teams like the Hawks, Celtics and Trailblazers. These are young teams (and there are others) with plenty of up-and-coming talent that should be ready to blossom at some stage this winter. Follow those teams early and often and be ready to pounce on any and all players that look like they can contribute.
You may strike out often, but you could also hit a home run if you're lucky.
BREAKOUTS - We expect these guys to significantly increase their production this season, making them players to target on Draft Day because of their upside and potential to improve. These are players that we think will be considered in the first few rounds in Fantasy Drafts next season.
Charlie Villanueva, MIL - A couple of injuries to key players (Andrew Bogut, Bobby Simmons) will make him have to step up his game right out of the gate. Both Bogut and Simmons are expected to miss a month of action and the former UConn standout will need to be the team's second option behind Michael Redd by default. Expect him to come out of the gate strong, surpassing the 13 ppg and around six rebounds he averaged last season. He'll have the chance to earn the trust of the team and coaching staff in the first month.
Channing Frye, NY - He bulked up over the summer and is a favorite of new coach Isiah Thomas. The added muscle will allow him to improve upon his 5.8 rpg average and should also allow him to become more active in the paint on the offensive end as well. He shoots at a high percentage (47.7 percent) and added playing time will automatically increase his scoring (12.3 ppg last season). The knee ligament that ended his season prematurely last year is not an issue and he is one of the building blocks around which the Knicks hope to get back to respectability.
Andres Nocioni, CHI - Nocioni was a second-half stud last season and was a monster in the playoffs, averaging 22.3 ppg and 8.8 rpg in six contests. His defense is what buys him most of his playing time, but we expect his offense to land somewhere in between what he did in the playoffs and his production during the regular season (when he averaged 13 ppg and 6.1 rpg). With offensively-challenged Ben Wallace and aging veteran P.J. Brown in the low-post, Nocioni will be looked to as a scoring threat along with Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich.
SLEEPERS - These are the guys who will give Fantasy owners great pleasure in knowing that they took a minimal gamble on them in the later rounds and got a high payoff in return. For some, the payoff is higher than others, but expect these players to become the object of desire at some point for Fantasy owners who didn't think to draft them.
Marvin Williams, ATL - No Al Harrington means more playing time for the second-year player out of North Carolina. He was the MVP of the Las Vegas Summer League and will easily reach double digit scoring this season if he sees more than the 24 minutes per contest he saw last season. We think he will. He is drawing rave reviews from players and coaches alike and is ready to make an impact from the first week this season. He is explosive on the offensive end, but still needs to bulk up in order to challenge for rebounds. We absolutely love his upside and the fact that Atlanta needs to build for the future bodes well for his development.
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| Youngster Gerald Green could be a nice sleeper in Boston. (Getty Images) |
Gerald Green, BOS - We obviously like the Celtics as a breeding ground for young Fantasy talent this season. As his name would indicate, Green is still very raw, but should fit right in with the Celtics young core of budding players. He's a fantastic three-point shooter and we think he'll see heavy minutes at some point this season. Log him under the "super-sleeper" category, but don't be afraid to use up a roster space with him in deeper leagues if you can afford it. The payoff could be significant if he's given a chance to contribute.
BUSTS - By bust, we don't mean that these guys will become towel-waving bench warmers at any stage this season. This label just means that we think these players will not live up to their draft value, thus causing Fantasy owners much stress and sometimes even bodily injury (we've seen it happen, but won’t mention any names).
Ron Artest, SAC – He's a great player. We like him. We just don't think he'll be able to live up to a selection in the first three rounds on Draft Day. He'll be a headache to own even if we don't yet know the reason why. You can find players with similar numbers (17.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.6 apg) that are much more pleasant to own and are available at a cheaper price. For instance, Caron Butler averaged 17.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg and 2.5 apg and is going later in drafts than Artest despite being younger and much more enjoyable to own in Fantasy leagues.
Andrei Kirilenko, UTA – Fantasy owners have been burned by him two seasons in a row, yet they continue to take him in the first few rounds. Why? He's averaged 62 games over the last three seasons and taking him that high in drafts severely handcuffs your chances of building a well-balanced, deep squad that will contend deep into the Fantasy season. When he's healthy, he's a beast, but he's already banged up we haven't even tipped off the season yet. His back is barking at him and that should raise a red flag for Fantasy owners. Resist the temptation to take him in the first three rounds on Draft Day.
Peja Stojakovic, NOK - He was a headache for Fantasy owners last year, but that can be dismissed because of a tumultuous season that included injuries and a mid-season trade to Indiana. The real issue is that his scoring has taken a dip in each of the last three seasons and his knee could once again be a problem in 2006-07. Drafting Peja as anything more than your No. 2 forward on Draft Day is asking for trouble
You can e-mail your Fantasy Basketball questions to DMFantasyHoops@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Basketball in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.
