Over the last two years, drafting Aaron Rodgers was one of the smartest, shrewdest moves a Fantasy owner could have made. It still should be in 2011, but it's going to cost you a high draft pick to get him. Rodgers has totaled at least 32 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons with an average of 4,131 passing yards in that span. Clearly, since taking over the starting job for the Packers, Rodgers has been lights out, and last year it pushed the Packers to a Super Bowl win. Our research suggests that quarterbacks who win a Super Bowl are primed to play well the following season, and our analysis of the Packers' schedule suggests another playoff run is coming. That means Rodgers should play stunning football once again thanks to his healthy receiving corps and aggressive play calling (not to mention his own ability). Rodgers is a rock solid No. 1 Fantasy QB but to land him you'll likely need a first-round pick or early-second round selection. He’s that good, and he should perform well again this year.
Michael Vick went from someone who was despised by all for his involvement in a dog-fighting ring to a player most Fantasy owners now covet on Draft Day. That's because of his play in 2010 when he took over for an injured Kevin Kolb and finished with the best season of his career. Vick passed for 3,018 yards on 63 percent completions with 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also added 676 rushing yards and nine touchdowns with just three fumbles. The passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns and rushing touchdowns were all career highs, and he's looking to build on that performance this season. Vick will remain in a contract year after being designated as Philadelphia's franchise player, and Fantasy owners should view him as a potential first-round pick. He should easily be drafted as one of the Top 3 quarterbacks and should have another dynamic season. If there's a catch with Vick, it's that injuries could play a role -- he missed three games during the season with a rib injury and sat out the season finale to rest for the playoffs. But Vick's ability to pass and run makes him a unique asset that Fantasy owners have to at least think about in all formats.
A knee sprain took the starch out of some of Drew Brees' starts last season, but he ultimately posted very good totals. More of the same is expected in 2011, and Brees should be up to it while playing in a contract year. Brees strikes us as consistently motivated to play well, so the fact that a big pay day is coming shouldn't change things much. But playing in a high-powered offense with lots of weapons should give him the ammunition for his sixth straight season with at least 4,300 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. The fact that he's averaging an eyelash under 300 yards per game over his last three seasons is also comforting to Fantasy owners. Playing 11 games indoors in 2011 won't hurt either, and even though the Saints drafted RB Mark Ingram with an acquired first-round pick, Brees should still air it out quite often. And because there wouldn't be a week where you'd bench Brees, the need to draft a No. 2 QB isn't as strong, opening up a roster spot on Draft Day for an extra running back or wide receiver (perhaps a Saint?). Consider Brees a slam dunk No. 1 Fantasy QB well worth a pick between 15th and 30th overall.
Tom Brady heads into 2011 looking to build off one of the best seasons of his career. His foot should be fine following offseason surgery and we consider Brady a No. 1 Fantasy option worth a pick in Round 2 (or very early Round 3) in all leagues. Looking back at his 2010 campaign, there's no reason to expect Brady to slow down as long as he's 100 percent. Last year, Brady lost Randy Moss after Week 4 and went on to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award. He finished the season with 3,900 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and a career-low four interceptions, while adding 30 rushing yards and a touchdown. This was his best Fantasy season since his career year in 2007. Brady has a wide array of talent at receiver even with the departure of Moss. Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski are Brady's top targets heading into '11. You can make an argument that Brady is the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, but he's easily a top 5 option among the group of Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.
Philip Rivers continues to prove he's among the best quarterbacks in the NFL and one of the top Fantasy options. He enters this season looking for his fourth year in a row with at least 4,000 passing yards and at least 28 touchdowns. Better yet, Rivers' pass attempts have increased each year since 2007 from 460 to 478 to 486 to a career-high 541 last season. He also should have Vincent Jackson back for a full year and a healthy Antonio Gates as well. The one downside for Rivers could be if the Chargers decide to be more balanced on offense with second-year running back Ryan Mathews expected to improve. But even if that happens, it's not like Rivers will slow down much. We like Rivers as a top 5 Fantasy quarterback worth drafting in Round 2 in all leagues. If he falls to Round 3, then consider it a steal.
Tony Romo is expected to return at 100 percent from a fractured left clavicle that limited him to just five full games in 2010. He should come back as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback and we recommend drafting him with a pick as early as Round 3 in all leagues. Prior to 2010, Romo passed for at least 4,200 yards in two of his previous three years. He also had 88 touchdowns and 42 interceptions from 2007-09, and last year he was on pace for an outstanding season (5,011 yards, 32 touchdowns, 22 interceptions) before he was hurt against the Giants in Week 7. He has an outstanding receiving corps in Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten and a pass-happy play caller in Jason Garrett. Best of all, Romo is a great consolation prize if you miss out on the upper-echelon quarterbacks through the first 25 picks.
This could be the year Matt Ryan becomes an elite passer. He's firmly entrenched as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez among his veteran targets and rookie Julio Jones his newest play toy. The addition of Jones will force defenses to play very honest, and Ryan should be able to pick them apart. After throwing for 3,705 yards and 28 passing touchdowns last season, expectations are higher and as a result Ryan should deliver fairly big totals on a weekly basis. Expect Ryan to follow Tony Romo and Matt Schaub off draft boards this summer as early as Round 4. There's tremendous upside here given that Ryan completed just 62.5 pct. of his passes and averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt. If you whiff on an elite passer through the first three rounds of your draft, winding up with Ryan is a terrific consolation prize.
Matt Schaub's numbers drifted south in 2010 compared to his mammoth 2009 totals, but he still remains a fine starting Fantasy QB for owners to draft. Starting 16 games for the second year in a row, Schaub's passing yardage (4,370), completion percentage (63.6), yards per attempt (7.61) and passing scores (24) were all below last year's marks. On the plus side, he threw fewer interceptions (12) and had over 15 Fantasy points in 11 games. There's optimism for Schaub to outperform these numbers in 2011: His offensive line has become a strength, he's getting a lot of good stats out of Arian Foster, tight end Owen Daniels has re-signed and will undergo a normal offseason instead of rehabbing a knee injury and the team might finally address their No. 2 receiver spot opposite Andre Johnson after another disappointing year from Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones. If that spot is addressed, and with the Texans playing under a win-or-else mandate and with a mostly favorable schedule, Schaub should put up some good numbers. He's worth drafting after the elite QB options are off the board in Round 3 and is someone to target if you don't like taking your quarterbacks early in drafts.
After totaling 3,822 yards, 24 total touchdowns and nine interceptions in 15 games (12 regular-season games plus three postseason games including Super Bowl XLV), Ben Roethlisberger has proven that he's a legitimate Fantasy starting quarterback. He posted at least 18 Fantasy points in seven of 12 regular-season starts. Though his completion percentage took a dip, Roethlisberger's receiving corps showed promise with the additions of Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown joining Mike Wallace and Hines Ward. Tack on a really favorable schedule in 2011, including games against the AFC South and NFC West, and signs point to Big Ben having a great shot at getting north of 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2011, just as he did in 2009. There's really no reason to forget about Roethlisberger on Draft Day; if you opt to pass on quarterbacks early in your draft, he'll be there between Rounds 5 and 7 and help your lineup. Consider him a very good value pick.
Matthew Stafford has a big arm, a couple of big-play weapons, a seasoned offensive coordinator, a good running back and a decent offensive line. He also has a shoulder that is made of glass. The Lions' quarterback has suffered four serious shoulder injuries over two seasons and is coming off of shoulder surgery for the second offseason in a row. He's on track to be ready for the start of the season, and the potential he brings to the table given his play last season (535 yards, six touchdowns, one interception in nine quarters) is obvious. Your best bet is to draft Stafford as a blue-chip No. 2 Fantasy quarterback worth a pick starting in Round 9, albeit not with a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback since it can't be assumed that Stafford will play 16 games. But if he does somehow, then he could be a star.
One of the most popular sleepers of the 2011 draft season is Josh Freeman, who will captain the Buccaneers' upstart offense. Freeman accounted for 25 touchdowns and nine turnovers last season while throwing for nearly 3,500 yards and running for more than 350. Only four times all last year did he fall below 15 Fantasy points in a standard-scoring league, and more of the same is expected. Freeman's ability to run for first downs and throw for touchdowns pales only to the likes of Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers, and his receiving corps is among the brightest young units in the league. A good, not great, schedule should keep Freeman's numbers competitive, but there's no question that he's one of the top young passers in the NFL right now. We'd draft Freeman as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback worth a pick in Round 7 or 8. We'd advise owners to take a good backup behind him just in case he falls below already lofty expectations.
Eli Manning may never get the same recognition that his brother Peyton has among Fantasy owners, but he's starting to look like a legit option with his performance the past two years. Manning heads into 2011 with consecutive seasons of 4,000-passing yards and 58 touchdown passes over that span. He has a solid receiving corps, especially if Steve Smith returns as a free agent and is healthy following a knee injury, and the Giants are becoming more balanced on offense. If Manning can cut down on the turnovers (25 interceptions and five fumbles in 2010) then his value will rise. We consider Manning a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB this season, and he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick.
Joe Flacco has room to improve in 2011 after not matching wild expectations in 2010, but it might not be easy. Flacco barely topped his sophomore season numbers with 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 3,622 yards on 306 of 489 passing. That includes nine games with multiple touchdowns and eight with 250 or more passing yards (one over 300 yards). He also rushed for a score while totaling 84 yards on the ground, though he fumbled four times and was sacked 40 times (both career-worst stats). The Ravens' offense has changed -- Todd Heap and Derrick Mason are gone, eliminating some of Flacco's reliable targets, and they will be replaced by Lee Evans, who was added via trade. Boldin and Ray Rice remain, as do rookie Torrey Smith and second-year tight end Ed Dickson. While expectations should be tempered some, Flacco should still be in a position to help Fantasy owners, especially in matchups against the Browns (five touchdowns against them in '10). Consider him a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback worth a pick between Rounds 7 and 8 in drafts this summer.
Sam Bradford is hoping to have a standout sophomore season after his stellar debut in
his rookie year. In 2010, Bradford completed 60 percent of his passes for 3,512 yards,
18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He also added 63 rushing yards and a touchdown
with two fumbles. Bradford nearly led the Rams to the playoffs, and he did it while losing
two of his best targets in Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton to injuries for much of the
season. This year, Bradford could be poised for a big season thanks to Josh McDaniels
taking over as offensive coordinator. McDaniels has done well in previous stops with
quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton. The Rams still need help at
WR, but Bradford should be drafted as a No. 2 QB with upside. He's safe as a bye-week
or injury replacement, but he has enough upside to be a potential starter in deep leagues if
he can improve on his rookie year as expected with the help of McDaniels.
The final image Fantasy owners have of Jay Cutler from 2010 is him sitting on the bench wearing a parka and a knee brace in the NFC title game. Don't judge him on that image or his inability to finish the playoff game, though. The bigger concern is that Cutler's numbers actually fell while in Mike Martz's offense last season, a shocker considering the track record of quarterbacks in the high-powered scheme. Playing in one less game, Cutler threw four fewer touchdowns and 392 fewer yards than he did in 2010, though he did improve his yards per attempt by a full yard and threw 10 fewer interceptions. But the glaring issues, especially from the Bears' perspective, are the 52 times he was sacked and 50 rushes he made. Both signs are proof that their offensive line is not where it needs to be, and with Cutler's knee hurt in their playoff loss to Green Bay, that needs to be rectified. The Bears addressed that in the draft and added Roy Williams to their receiving corps. It only helps that Cutler will stay in Martz's offense for a second straight season. We think Cutler's good enough to start in deeper formats (14-plus teams) and fantastic as a No. 2 quarterback. Expect him to last until the middle-to-late rounds on Draft Day.
