Fantasy owners are more than ready to commit a first-round pick to Aaron Rodgers in Fantasy drafts after another fantastic season. Rodgers posted career-high numbers in passing yardage (4,643) and touchdowns (45) in 2011 along with a career-low six interceptions (as a starter). There's really little to worry about here as Rodgers' receiving corps remains in place and his offensive line is in good shape even with the loss of center Scott Wells. Despite offensive coordinator Joe Philbin leaving to coach the Dolphins, Rodgers has a firm grip on the offense and should be fine. The only concern would be the Packers investing heavily in a running back. They've called rush plays for running backs 322 and 357 times over the last two seasons; any move they make to bring in a player who could push that number higher would mean fewer pass attempts for Rodgers. But even if they use a time machine to bring back Barry Sanders, Rodgers should still have the chance to put up very good numbers. If your league scores all touchdowns the same, Rodgers should be taken anywhere from No. 4 to No. 10 overall. If your league discounts passing touchdowns then Rodgers might get picked between 10th and 20th overall. If your league starts multiple quarterbacks, it would be perfectly acceptable to take Rodgers with the first overall pick. Or if you're inclined to take a quarterback at No. 1 overall in any format then Rodgers is your man.
Drew Brees needs to sign a contract with the Saints, but once that small minor operational detail is taken care of, he'll be in a position to throw all over the place. Brees did exactly that last season, setting the single-season NFL record with 5,476 passing yards with career-highs in completions (468), completion percentage (71.2 percent), passing touchdowns (46) and completions of 20-plus yards (69). He also threw just 14 interceptions, the second-lowest of any season where he played 16 games. And that's just the regular season - his postseason totals (seven touchdowns and 928 yards through the air) made him even better. And counting his postseason he had at least 300 yards passing and at least two touchdowns 13 times in 18 total games, including each of his last nine games. With at least 33 touchdowns and 4,300 yards in each of his last four seasons, Brees has replaced Peyton Manning as the absolute safest pick in Fantasy Football. You can worry about Sean Payton not being in New Orleans all you want, but with Brees entrenched in his offense for the last six seasons you can safely assume that he'll know what to do. Expect him to lean on his strengths and deliver another big season. With the number of elite Fantasy rushers at an all-time low, Brees is worth a first-round pick as a safe weekly must-start option. If you're in a league that starts multiple quarterbacks, Brees is fine as a Top-5 pick.
The last time Tom Brady lost a Super Bowl to the New York Giants in 2007, he spent the following season on injured reserve after suffering a torn ACL in Week 1. So obviously, Brady can't do much worse than that in 2012. What's funny is that for a guy coming off a career-high 5,235 passing yards in 2011 with 39 touchdown passes and three touchdown runs, expectations are higher than ever before because he has what is arguably the best receiving corps of his career. His top three weapons of Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are all expected back, and the Patriots also added Brandon Lloyd, Donte Stallworth and Anthony Gonzalez while retaining Deion Branch and Chad Ochocinco. We doubt all these guys make the team, but Brady will clearly be surrounded by some great talent. Even with the loss of left tackle Matt Light, he should remain well protected and should pick apart most of the defenses he'll face. You can make an argument that Brady is the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, but he's easily a Top 3 option among the group of Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Brady should be drafted toward the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2 in all leagues.
After posting 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2011, no one doubts Matthew Stafford's ability to quarterback in the NFL any further. Playing in 16 games for the first time in his career, Stafford connected for multiple touchdowns 12 times and had at least three touchdowns in seven starts. He also threw for at least 250 yards in 12 starts and topped 300 yards in eight contests, including a 520-yard blowout at the Packers in Week 17. Sounds like a can't miss, right? He mostly is, just keep in mind that the Lions were forced to throw a lot last season because of running back injuries that have since healed. And Stafford remains a small injury risk himself because of his past. But with Calvin Johnson on his side along with a number of excellent playmakers, there's no reason to believe that Stafford will become a pedestrian passer in 2012. Count on him being either the fourth or fifth quarterback taken, right alongside Cam Newton, in every league, likely with a pick in Round 2 in the majority of standard leagues.
Expectations are sky-high for Cam Newton after he threw for more than 4,000 yards and 21 touchdowns and rushed for more than 700 yards and 14 touchdowns as a rookie. But get this: He accomplished those stats on 517 pass attempts and just 126 rush attempts. A dozen quarterbacks attempted more passes than he did and the rush attempts, while high for a quarterback, average under eight tries per game. With his completion percentage a fair 60 percent, there's not only room for improvement statistically but in activity as well. The Panthers are sure to do everything they can to work on stepping up Newton's game because defenses will do everything they can this offseason to slow him down. It'll be tough for Newton to rumble for 14 touchdowns again, but a boost in his passing stats isn't tough to expect. After finishing as a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback last season, it only makes sense to draft him as the same in 2012. We'd give Newton a look as early as Round 2 after three elite quarterbacks -- Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady -- and potentially a fourth guy -- Matthew Stafford -- get picked.
Last year may have been the passing of the torch with Eli Manning becoming the better quarterback than brother Peyton - on the field and in Fantasy. Now, part of that had to do with Peyton missing the entire 2011 season following neck surgery, but Eli also had an excellent year. He won his second Super Bowl (one more than Peyton), and he passed for 4,933 yards, 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He also added a rushing touchdown. The yardage was a career high, and this was the third year in a row he passed for at least 4,000 yards. He also has at least 27 passing touchdowns over that span, and he should continue to improve with his developing receiving corps (though he'll be without Hakeem Nicks for most of the summer). While he might never reach the lofty passing stats his brother put up in Indy, Eli should be drafted first this year. We consider Eli a solid No. 1 Fantasy quarterback worth drafting as early as Round 5 in standard leagues.
Tony Romo continues to prove that when healthy he is among the best Fantasy quarterbacks in all leagues. He returned from playing in only six games in 2010 due to a broken left collarbone to play in every game in 2011, even dealing with broken ribs and a punctured lung along the way. Romo posted outstanding stats with 4,184 passing yards, 31 touchdowns (not including a rushing touchdown) and just 10 interceptions. This was the third time in his career he had more than 4,000 passing yards and the second time he topped 30 touchdowns. Romo will present great value on Draft Day since he will be taken after Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton, putting him in the mix with Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. There's a good chance Romo could fall to Round 4 or later, and he would be a steal at that point given his track record and his weapons: Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten.
Philip Rivers enters this season with the chance to rebound from a down year in 2011. Rivers had some positive stats with 4,624 yards and 27 touchdowns, but he threw a career-high 20 interceptions. That's something he needs to correct this year, but it's not the biggest hole he'll have to fill. Rivers lost a big target in Vincent Jackson, who signed as a free agent in Tampa Bay, and he'll try to make up for the departure with new talent in Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal. Along with Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd, Rivers should be fine having players to throw at. He has at least 4,000 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns in each of his past four seasons, and we expect him to stay at that level this year. He should be drafted as a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback in the majority of leagues in Round 4 at the latest.
In total, Michael Vick had a positive season in 2011. He was the No. 11 quarterback in a standard league, and his 19.8 Fantasy points per game was ninth-best. But let's face it, you expected more, and hopefully he can rebound this season. What you should expect from Vick is outstanding production -- he had at least 23 Fantasy points in seven games, including three in a row to close the season. But you also have to expect an injury or two, and he missed three games last year with broken ribs. Vick has played in 16 games just once in his career, and his reckless style leaves him susceptible to getting hurt. That said, his production is unmatched at his position (see 2010) and if you draft him as a starter you should take a quality backup for when (not if) Vick goes down. We still value Vick as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues. He should be considered on Draft Day beginning in Round 3, and he should be taken some time after the Top 5 quarterbacks of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton. Vick is in the next tier of quarterbacks with Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers; if he was guaranteed to play 16 games, he would be better than them all.
After missing all of 2011 and being released by the Colts, quarterback Peyton Manning is apparently healthy enough to play for the Denver Broncos, who he signed with in March. Questions remain about just how good his arm is after having it affected by multiple neck surgeries, but first-hand accounts from people he's worked out with say he's as good as new. We want to see him take part in camp practices and preseason games before we get as excited, but with receivers like Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker at his disposal as well as a familiar face in Jacob Tamme joining Manning in Denver, there's all sorts of potential for Manning to return to his 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown ways. If he looks as good as we remember, he'll be in the discussion as the seventh quarterback taken in drafts, right behind brother Eli, in Round 3 or 4. If he's not quite as smooth but clearly on track to play, he'll be more of a fifth-round pick with the likes of Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. And if he's not playing at all but still expected to be ready for the season, Fantasy owners might start gambling with him starting in Round 6 or 7.
Matt Ryan took another step forward in 2011, posting a career-high 4,177 yards with 29 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions. He also rushed for a pair of touchdowns. That's pretty good but it's still not up to par with the elite passers in the NFL. However, Ryan still has the potential to be one of those guys thanks to his receiving corps. In the 13 games he played with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez last season he averaged 267 yards and two touchdowns per game. His offensive line should be improved this year, and the addition of Dirk Koetter as his offensive coordinator should bring some new wrinkles to agonize defenses. They also have a nice schedule that includes 10 indoor games. There's no reason to believe that Ryan won't be as good as he was last year, and there's plenty to believe he could exceed his 2011 stats. It wouldn't be a bad plan to wait for a quarterback like Ryan and pass on the elite passers in the first three rounds.
Ben Roethlisberger remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback headed into the season, one who might serve as a great Draft-Day bargain. Big Ben topped 4,000 passing yards last year for only the second time in his career, but the 21 touchdowns he threw for along with 14 interceptions didn't help. Nor did an ankle injury that cost him a game and limited him in others. Roethlisberger had just five games with two-plus touchdowns and another five games with over 300 yards. So why the optimism for 2012, especially with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley joining the Steelers? Roethlisberger should still have his receiving corps together, highlighted by Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, and with the Steelers run game a huge question mark, there's some thought that Roethlisberger will top the 513 pass attempts he had last year as the team leans on him. The Steelers have even improved their O-line to better protect Big Ben. If you opt to pass on quarterbacks early in your draft, he'll be there as a good value between Rounds 5 and 7.
If you like garage sales, thrift stores and flea markets, then you'll love Matt Schaub. That's because he's one of the best bargains you should find in drafts this summer. Schaub's 2011 was cut short because of a Lisfranc sprain in his foot, but he's expected to be ready for the start of this season. He's also at the controls of an explosive and cohesive offense that's primed for a Super Bowl run. So while his stats over the last two seasons aren't entirely breath-taking, he has averaged 263.4 passing yards and 1.46 total touchdowns per start. With a healthy Andre Johnson and a favorable schedule just part of the passing equation in Houston, owners in 12-team leagues can draft Schaub as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option with a pick as late as Round 6. In smaller leagues, he'll probably get taken as a quality No. 2 option. And here's an idea if you make Schaub your starter: Pair him with a young quarterback a few rounds later (maybe Andy Dalton or one of the rookie passers) and hope to catch fire with one or both quarterbacks over the course of the season.
Jay Cutler's first three seasons in Chicago haven't been anything to write home about (63 touchdowns in 41 games). So why is there optimism for his fourth? The Bears parted ways with offensive coordinator Mike Martz, giving the controls instead to Mike Tice, who promises to create an offense that Cutler can thrive in. The Bears front office backed up Tice on that, acquiring wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Dolphins and reuniting the former Denver teammates. They also brought in ex-Broncos assistant Jeremy Bates to coach up Cutler. Addressing the offensive line further will help Cutler, too. Whether or not these moves pay off remain to be seen, but there's optimism he could put up some big numbers thanks to the Bears' changes. We think Cutler's good enough to start in deeper formats (14-plus teams) and fantastic as a No. 2 quarterback. Expect him to last until the middle-to-late rounds on Draft Day.
For years, Fantasy owners have been cautiously optimistic about Joe Flacco having a breakout season. And for years, Fantasy owners have been disappointed. Flacco has been decidedly mediocre in his four seasons in Baltimore, never topping 3,622 passing yards or 25 touchdowns in a single season. Over the last three years including the playoffs (54 games) he's had nine games with at least 300 yards passing and 24 games with multiple touchdowns. He'll have promising young targets in Torrey Smith and Ed Dickson to go with reliable veterans like Anquan Boldin and Ray Rice, and he'll be in a contract year to boot. But with so many other quarterbacks established in the league, and plenty more on the cusp of joining them as elite Fantasy options, Flacco falls in line as a good enough No. 2 quarterback who some owners will settle for. Expect him to be a middle- to late-round pick who will start the season hot before cooling off - that's how he's performed in the previous few seasons.
