LaDainian Tomlinson has a lot to prove this season. He suffered through a toe injury much of last season and was then hampered by a torn groin muscle during the playoffs. He didn't require surgery, but Tomlinson looked old and at the end of the line. In his eighth NFL season, Tomlinson posted his worst numbers since his rookie year with 1,110 rush yards on a career-low 292 carries (3.8 avg.) and 11 touchdowns, adding 426 receiving yards on 52 catches (8.2 avg.) and another score. He had two 100-yard rush efforts, eight 100-total-yard outings, three multi-TD games (including a Week 17 laugher vs. the Broncos), and the 1,536 total yards he had were the lowest of his career. Tomlinson and the Chargers agreed to a restructured contract in 2009 that gives the veteran rusher the salary he originally had coming but less money in future years, a deal that could certainly make this season the equivalent of a contract year even though it technically isn't. That might motivate Tomlinson, as should proving people that he's not "done" despite turning 30 before the season starts. Norv Turner, the Chargers head coach, believes that Tomlinson isn't done and said in late March that he's counting on over 320 carries from the veteran. Tomlinson also worked out fully and with no restrictions in the club's first offseason minicamp. We recognize when a running back goes downhill by the workload he takes on and the injuries he incurs. Eight full seasons of work and/or 2,500 carries is usually when we see a runner's ability decline, and Tomlinson hit both numbers last season. He'll also be forced into sharing reps with teammate Darren Sproles in 2009. Considering his experience, the three injuries he's had over the last two years (he had a knee injury in the 2007 playoffs) and Sproles' presence in the offense, it's hard to treat Tomlinson as the mega-back worth the No. 1 overall pick in drafts. Instead, we think he's better suited as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy RB capable of still getting good numbers and touchdowns, but not with the same regularity as we saw from 2001-2007. Consider him with a pick at the middle to the end of the first round in all drafts this summer, and keep in mind that if you do draft him, it's probably going to mean spending a mid-round pick on Sproles to insure you've got the Chargers' backfield locked up.
Brian Westbrook's streak of 1,200-yard rushing seasons ended in 2008 (he finished with 936 rush yards), but his streak of 1,300-total-yard seasons remained in tact. Westbrook also had double-digit total touchdowns for the third year in a row. Here's the bottom line: 936 rush yards on 233 carries (4.0 avg.) with nine TDs on the ground and 402 yards on 54 catches (7.4 avg.) with another five scores. And on all those touches, he had one fumble lost. Westbrook might have some trouble keeping those streaks alive in 2009 when he underwent surgery to remove bone spurs from his right ankle in June, a procedure expected to sideline him through the start of training camp. He also had knee surgery earlier this offseason, but he is reportedly on the mend from that. The bottom line is that Westbrook is a risky No. 1 Fantasy RB who will slide late into Round 1 and even into Round 2 in some leagues. If you do decide to roll the dice on the 30-year-old runner, you must dedicate a mid-round pick to picking up his backup, rookie LeSean McCoy, who should be a serviceable replacement for Westbrook when (not if) he replaces him in the starting lineup.
We've seen Adrian Peterson for two years, and we can't find a problem with him. Building on a stellar rookie season, Peterson played in 16 games in 2008 and rushed an obscene 363 times for a league-best 1,760 yards (4.8 avg.) with 10 touchdowns, adding 21 catches for 125 yards (6.0 avg.). Peterson had 10 100-yard games and 12 contests with 100 rush yards and/or a touchdown with just four fumbles lost. While it's hard to believe that he'll have 350-plus carries again in 2009, there's no doubt that he'll see a ton of work and still have the ability to overpower defenses and break long touchdown runs. That should especially be the case now that Brett Favre -- a legitimate passing threat -- is his quarterback. Peterson is a very good choice with the No. 1 overall pick in all standard 2009 drafts and a Top-3 pick in PPR formats.
For the second year in a row, Steven Jackson played in just 12 games but still managed to top 1,000 rush yards, 270 receiving yards and at least six total touchdowns with over 270 total touches. Imagine how productive he'd be if he could stay healthy. Jackson's 2008 totals were modest, especially compared to where he was drafted: 1,042 yards on 253 carries (4.1 avg.) with seven rush TDs and 40 catches for 379 yards (9.5 avg.) with another score and three fumbles lost. The Rams are going to lean on Jackson to carry the workload in 2009 and hope that his achy back and sore groin don't slow him down. When healthy, Jackson is a do-it-all running back easily capable of getting 20-to-25 touches per week with goal-line carries -- essentially a Fantasy Football dream. However, with young players emerging at the position, Jackson will slip to the second half of the first round in most drafts this summer. He's still a No. 1 Fantasy RB but not an elite one. If you can get him in Round 2, you'll be committing larceny.
Marshawn Lynch posted lower rushing totals in 2008 than he did as a rookie the previous year, but was still moderately effective. In 2007, Lynch had 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games. In his second season, he struggled with 1,036 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games and didn't have a 100-yard rushing game until Week 11 (he had two on the season and just four 100-total-yard efforts). He also fumbled once. Lynch did improve as a receiver with 47 catches for 300 yards and a touchdown. But those numbers will take a hit following a three-game suspension for Lynch handed down by the NFL in early April for weapon misdemeanors in California. The suspension could be appealed and scaled back to two games, but either way Lynch will miss some time to start the season, and that's a strike against him. He also saw his offensive line get whittled away and his running back corps get added to (Dominic Rhodes might swipe away some carries). When Lynch returns to the Bills, he will be a No. 2 Fantasy RB with some upside since he works at the goal line and will see plenty of reps otherwise. But because of the suspension, you'll have to insure Lynch with a middle- to late-round pick on backup Fred Jackson and/or Rhodes, both of whom will work in Lynch's place for the start of the year. Otherwise, plan to pick Lynch somewhere in Round 3 in all leagues knowing you'll be without him for a while. A mid-June foot injury suffered in practice (nothing broken) shouldn't be of concern, either.
While he got a new contract with the Cowboys, Marion Barber also inherited the starting job and was expected to take on the bulk of the rushing workload in 2008. For the first 12 games of the season, he did exactly that, but then a dislocated toe on his right foot hobbled him and he fizzled down the stretch. With only 15 rush yards and 51 receiving yards coming after the injury, the majority of Barber's production came when he was healthy, and it was mostly good. On 238 carries, Barber had 885 yards (3.7 avg.) and seven touchdowns with 52 catches for 417 yards (8.0 avg.) and two more scores. Eight of his 12 games before the injury resulted in at least 100 total yards. Barber also set career-highs in total yardage, carries and receptions. More of the same is expected in 2009, though he will continue to yield carries to Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. But because Barber works at the goal line and because he's a threat for 100 total yards each week, he remains a Fantasy stud, especially working behind his massive offensive line. Barber is still a No. 1 Fantasy RB worth a mid-to-late first-round pick in drafts this summer.
Joseph Addai was one of the biggest busts in 2008. He only appeared in 12 games and had 544 rushing yards on 155 carries (3.5 avg.) with five touchdowns. He also had 25 catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns and lost a fumble. Addai rushed for 100 yards in a game just once. This was his worst season in three years, and he fell behind No. 2 rusher Dominic Rhodes in Fantasy value. Adding insult to injury, the Colts' rusher had arthroscopic knee surgery this offseason and is on the mend but clearly not the picture of perfect health. Between his long 2008 season and his injury history (he also had shoulder, knee and hamstring issues last year), you can see why the Colts drafted RB Donald Brown with their first-round pick. Addai will lose touches to Brown, hurting his potential in the Colts' high-powered offense. Addai remains a talented Fantasy option if he can stay healthy and get the majority of touches, but the earliest he should be drafted is Round 3. He has a long way to go to prove he can be considered a must-start option, though.
Frank Gore got off to a solid start in 2008 but then trailed off beginning in Week 12 after suffering a concussion and neck injury the week before. He also was sidelined for a couple of weeks with an ankle ailment in Weeks 15 and 16. His season totals were decent: 240 carries for 1,036 yards (4.3 avg.) with six touchdowns, adding two scores through the air with 373 receiving yards on 43 catches (8.7 avg.). But after Week 11, Gore had only one touchdown (receiving) and no 100-total-yard games (seven before), stunting his stat line for the year. Gore and the Niners have a new offensive coordinator in Jimmy Raye, and he's expected to be more run-oriented than past coordinators. And while the Niners wanted to find a good rusher to complement Gore, the best they've done is rookie Glen Coffee with a third-round pick, hardly a threat to the starter's role. Gore should still have close to 20 touches per game with reps at the goal line, and that's enough to be considered a No. 1 Fantasy RB worth a top pick between fourth and eighth overall.
Clinton Portis told CBSSports.com last offseason he envisioned a 20-touchdown season in 2008, and we thought he'd come close based on the new offense in Washington and his health coming into the season. Through the first nine games, Portis was on fire, scoring seven TDs, rushing for at least 100 yards in five straight games and totaling 100 yards in another. But he struggled in the back half of the season as he dealt with knee, hip and neck problems, though he didn't miss a game. In his final seven games, Portis had no touchdowns until one each in the last two weeks of the season and only one game with 100 rush yards (his only 100-total-yard effort). The cumulative totals? 1,487 yards on 342 carries (4.3 avg.) with nine rushing TDs to go with 28 receptions for 218 yards (7.8 avg.) and three fumbles lost. Portis' season was also marred when he called out head coach Jim Zorn and criticized him after he was benched for a half against the Ravens in Week 14. That's water under the bridge now, and Portis is back to being focused on continuing his role as the key cog in the Washington offense. He better be, because he might be on thin ice considering his contract after 2009. His salary balloons in 2010, and the Redskins might opt to cut him if he doesn't produce in a big way this season. The Redskins have offensive line concerns as well, but Portis ultimately remains in a prominent position where he'll see a full workload each week along with goal-line carries, and that's hard to pass up in a draft -- especially considering all the rushing tandems out there. Portis is a nice No. 1 Fantasy RB and a lock for at least 1,200 total yards who should be taken somewhere between 9th and 14th overall in every draft this summer.
Larry Johnson will likely remain with the Chiefs this season despite asking for a trade. He should want to stay in Kansas City with Todd Haley and Chan Gailey guiding the offense and Matt Cassel at QB. The offensive line is improving, and Johnson should be in line for a pretty good season. He could lose a few carries to Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith, but Johnson is still going to get close to 20 touches per game and should be a candidate for good stats, including at the goal line. Johnson had 874 rushing yards on 193 carries (4.5 avg.) and five touchdowns last year with 12 catches for 74 yards. He should do better than that this season but remains a No. 2 RB at best. The earliest Johnson should be drafted is Round 3 as your second RB.
Jamal Lewis will be 30 this season and is starting to hit the decline in his career. Last year, Lewis had the lowest rush total (1,002) and rushing touchdowns (four) since 2005, living up to the bust label we put on him coming into 2008. He also underwent a minor procedure on his ankle during the offseason, which doesn't exactly suggest he's a spring chicken but won't hold him back for the start of the year. This season, Lewis should be considered no better than a No. 3 Fantasy RB because he's not the effective power rusher we're used to seeing. Furthermore, the Browns may decide to give more carries to Jerome Harrison and flirted with the idea of signing a running back during the offseason. Lewis could view this season as a potential free-agent year since his contract expires in 2010, and it's unlikely the Browns will sign him to a long-term extension if he continues to play like he did last season. Plan on drafting Lewis somewhere around Round 7 this year and hope you see more of the Lewis from 2007 than 2008.
Willis McGahee reminded Fantasy owners in the AFC Championship Game that he can still be a dominant option when he rushed for 60 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. But McGahee had a dismal 2008 due to various injuries to his knee and ribs. Expected to be the bell cow of the Ravens offense, his role was eventually split with LeRon McClain and Ray Rice as the trio formed the basis of the Baltimore offense. In 2008, McGahee had just 671 rush yards on 170 carries (3.9 avg.) with seven touchdowns, adding 173 yards on 24 catches with three fumbles lost. In 2009, McGahee won't share with McClain, who is moving to fullback, but he will be in a make-or-break season since his salary skyrockets in 2010 and the club may not want him back at a high price if he cannot produce. And even with McClain popping holes open for him instead of taking carries away, McGahee will still be forced to share with Rice. We could see McGahee as the featured back, Rice as the third-down back and McClain mopping up at the goal line. That would leave McGahee with the potential for a lot of yards, but not enough stats to register as an elite rusher. Thus, treat McGahee as a very low-end No. 3 Fantasy RB heading into drafts this summer; consider him a good mid-round pick as a yardage hog.
Ryan Grant was one of five NFL running backs to top 300 carries in 2008, and he did fairly well with those rushes. On 312 totes, Grant had 1,203 yards (3.9 avg.), but with just four touchdowns, half of his 2008 total, and none in his first six games. He also had just four 100-yard games and 18 catches for 116 yards (6.4 avg.) and an additional score. Grant will enter 2009 as a solid Fantasy option as a No. 2 rusher and will be worth a pick between Rounds 2 and 3 this summer.
The Jaguars released Fred Taylor in the offseason, which will allow Maurice Jones-Drew to start and get the majority of carries as the club's featured back. That's a good thing because Jones-Drew has already been a star, and he's about to get even better. Although his rushing average has dipped in each of his three seasons, he's been wildly productive: At least 1,100 total yards and nine total touchdowns each year. So long as he remains part of the Jaguars passing attack and a threat at the goal line -- both jobs he should retain -- expect Jones-Drew to thrive. And even though he landed a huge long-term contract extension in mid-April, we still think he'll play hard through injury and deliver big stats. We love him as a No. 1 Fantasy RB who should be drafted in the early part of the first round in every league in 2009. He will lose some touches and possibly goal-line carries to Greg Jones, but not enough to deter you from drafting him as high as No. 3 overall selection.
After a breakout 2007 season, Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 11 and missed the remainder of the season. In the limited action he saw, he ran for 563 yards on 132 carries (4.3 avg.) with four touchdowns, adding 23 receptions for 174 yards (7.6 avg.). Graham did appear to labor on as the season went on, slowing down after a hot September (three 100-total-yard games, two TDs). Graham will now share the rock with Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams, both of whom are expected to split reps in front of the the Bucs' bruiser. That will leave far fewer chances for Graham to rack up yardage, but it could leave him as the goal-line guy for Tampa Bay since he's the bigger back than Ward. Consider Graham a reserve Fantasy RB if that's his role, which would make him worth a pick in the late rounds in drafts.
