Arian Foster went from preseason sleeper to Fantasy superstar, and now the hope is that he'll continue to dominate defenses in 2011. There's concern that head coach Gary Kubiak might give some of Foster's workload to Ben Tate, who the Texans drafted with a second-round pick last year, but Foster has proven to be too good a player to be taken off the field more than a few times per game, so we suspect Foster will still get 20 touches per outing. On a steady diet of that last season he totaled 18 touchdowns and over 2,200 yards with just two fumbles lost. He even played through a knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery in February. While some Fantasy owners think Foster is a one-year wonder, we contend that he'll have the same kind of opportunity he had for all of 2010, and that's why he's worth a very high draft pick. He's not a bad choice as the No. 1 overall pick in drafts and should be off the board prior to No. 3 overall.
What's more dangerous than one of the league's most exciting, consistent and stat-producing running backs? How about an exciting, consistent, stat-producing running back in a contract year? Indeed, Adrian Peterson is due a new deal after the 2011 season, and while he's deserved a new contract for some time now, this year he'll have fresh motivation to play well. After all, a big season will cement his status as the best running back in the game and thus he can command to be paid as such. Peterson is flawless as a running back. He's averaged nearly 110 yards per game over his last two seasons and has missed just one game in three years. He has 54 touchdowns in 61 career games and overcame a fumbling issue in 2010 when he coughed up the ball just once. All that said, there's concern that his O-line is not as good as it once was and obviously the quarterback situation in Minnesota leaves a lot to be desired. Nonetheless, only a fool would tell you to pass on AP in drafts. He's as reliable a pick as you can find in 2011, well worth a first-round selection between first and third overall in all formats.
Over his three-year career, Chris Johnson has averaged nearly 120 total yards per game. He's handled the rock over 22 times per game in that span and has scored in eight of 10 games. And through 47 career games, Johnson has fumbled the ball away just six times. There's no sure thing when it comes to running backs in Fantasy Football, but Johnson plays on a run-first team with an ex-offensive lineman as the head coach (Mike Munchak) and a veteran offensive coordinator looking to make a splash in his first year in Tennessee (Chris Palmer). With two games against the Colts, Texans and Jaguars each and matchups against the Browns, Broncos, Bills and Panthers also, there's so much to like about Johnson. Even matchups against the Ravens and Steelers in 2011 can't dampen an outlook this good -- figure Johnson to be a No. 1 RB in Fantasy, making him worth a pick between No. 1 and No. 4 overall in all leagues and formats. The only downside for Johnson entering the season is his lack of a quality quarterback, but Johnson's talent should overcome any deficiencies at that position.
Jamaal Charles proved he's an elite Fantasy running back and we hope the Chiefs decide to treat him that way in 2011. In 2010, Charles shared carries with Thomas Jones, but Charles was clearly the better running back. He had more than 1,900 total yards and eight touchdowns despite getting 20 carries just three times. Charles will share carries with Jones again this season, but their careers are headed in opposite directions and their workloads likely are too. Charles has home-run speed, dynamic playmaking ability and back-to-back seasons with at least 40 catches. He can do it all and we see no reason for him to slow down this year. With an increased workload, Charles should be a candidate for 2,000 total yards and double digits in touchdowns. We consider Charles a first-round pick in all leagues and a potential top 5 overall draft pick.
No one flinched at drafting Ray Rice with an early first-round pick last summer and chances are no one will flinch at taking him with a first-round pick this summer. For the second year in a row Rice totaled a huge amount of yardage (1,776) thanks in part to more than 50 carries than he had in 2009 (his receptions dipped by 16). But his touchdowns were sparse as he had five rushing and one receiving, losing six touchdowns to teammate Willis McGahee. The "McGahee issue" is over as he signed with Denver after getting cut in July, and the Ravens added fullback Vonta Leach, who popped open holes for Arian Foster for much of 2010. Both of those moves will only enhance Rice's game. The Ravens signed Ricky Williams this offseason but offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said in mid-August that Rice has earned the goal-line job for the Ravens to start the season. There's potential for a huge season here, especially since Rice will be in a contract year motivated for a big pay day, and he'll have a very friendly schedule (save for two games against the Steelers and one against the Jets). There's reason to believe Rice will deliver big in 2011 and the opportunity to draft him early in the first round should be appealing to owners.
The big concern regarding Maurice Jones-Drew heading into 2011 is whether or not the knee surgery he had following the season will impact him. We don't think it will. Jones-Drew played on the knee, complete with a bone-on-bone condition, for much of last season and played very well. He also has rehabbed properly this offseason. The bigger question is whether or not he'll lose a few more reps each week to backup running back Rashad Jennings, who did well with and without Jones-Drew in 2010. Regardless, there's no one who doesn't think Jones-Drew won't be given a sizable workload and continue to be a great source of yardage (at least 1,600 total each of the last two years and at least 1,150 yards every year) and touchdowns (at least seven total every year). Your best move is to consider Jones-Drew a solid No. 1 Fantasy running back worth a pick between fifth and 10th overall in all formats.
For the second time in three seasons, Michael Turner logged more than 330 carries in 2010 while posting double-digit touchdowns for the third straight year. His yardage might have leveled off a smidge, but he still got the job done with more than 1,300 yards at a 4.1 per carry clip. But it's those carries that Fantasy owners are a little jittery over. The last time Turner had more than 330 carries in a season he fell apart the following year. The schedule gets a bit tougher for Turner in 2011, and he is coming off of offseason groin surgery, but the reality is that so long as he's healthy he's a weekly candidate to score and get close to 100 yards behind one of the better offensive lines in football. Everyone should want someone like that on their Fantasy team. Turner's a solid No. 1 Fantasy running back worth a pick between No. 5 and No. 10 overall in standard formats (a bit later in PPR leagues).
LeSean McCoy reminded Fantasy owners of Brian Westbrook last year with his performance in his first season as starter with 1,080 rushing yards and seven touchdowns and 78 catches for 592 yards and two touchdowns with one fumble. He sat out the season finale to rest for the playoffs, but McCoy proved he has 2,000-total yard potential with double digits in touchdowns. We expect him to improve in his third season, and he should be considered a No. 1 Fantasy RB worth a pick as early as sixth overall in standard leagues (maybe fifth overall in PPR formats). If you're looking for a handcuff option for McCoy plan on taking Ronnie Brown with a late-round pick.
For the first time in Darren McFadden's three-year career, he finally outperformed expectations with a breakout performance in 2010. Now, Fantasy owners want to know if he can be trusted to do it again. Last year, McFadden started a career-high 13 games and had a career-high in carries (223), rushing yards (1,157), rushing touchdowns (seven), catches (47), receiving yards (507) and receiving touchdowns (three). McFadden had only three games in 2010 where he didn't have 100 total yards or a touchdown, a huge improvement from his injury-plagued rookie and sophomore seasons. The only downside was that McFadden missed three games due to injury (two for a hamstring and one for a toe), but that's part of the deal in drafting him -- he's expected to miss a game or two with an injury. Still, based on the way he played last year and what's in store for the Oakland offense under new head coach and play caller Hue Jackson this year, you have to expect McFadden to play well again. We consider him a first-round pick, but there's a chance people in your league don't think that. If he falls to Round 2, consider it a steal.
Steven Jackson continues to prove he's among the best Fantasy options in all leagues. Heading into 2011, the Rams talked about giving Jackson some help to keep him fresh, but he spoke out about being an every-down back and said he relishes that role. Since
2005, Jackson has at least 1,300 total yards in all but one season, which was 2007 when he was limited to 12 games. He still managed 1,273 total yards that year. In 2010, Jackson had more than 1,600 total yards and six touchdowns. We'd like to see Jackson
score more (he has just 10 total touchdowns in his past two years), but it's hard to argue with his production. Now, the Rams don't want Jackson to break down and could make some moves to ensure he'll be around for a playoff run. After all, he has 907 rushes in his
last 43 games (over three seasons). But as long as he's the starter without losing touches to either a third-down back or a goal-line vulture, he should be drafted as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy RB with a pick toward the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2. Jackson,
who has at least 40 catches in five of seven NFL seasons, could also see his receptions rise with the addition of new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, so his value should improve slightly in PPR leagues if that's even possible.
Frank Gore is healthy following last year's hip injury, which cut short his season in Week 12 and limited him to 11 games. But he thinks he isn't healthy contractually, though he ended his holdout on August 1. Gore, who is entering a contract year, is looking for a new deal. But is he starting to break down? He's only played 16 games once in his career in 2006 and has dealt with a variety of injuries the past two seasons. And despite saying the Niners want him to dominate the carries, the team wants him to be healthy and could give a handful of touches to Anthony Dixon and rookie Kendall Hunter. Still, it's hard to argue with Gore's production with 200 carries a year each year since 2006 with at least 46 catches. He has the potential for 1,500 total yards and eight total touchdowns -- but he must remain healthy. Remember, he hasn't had any team-oriented conditioning this offseason and spent a lot of time rehabbing his hip instead of getting in game shape. We're a little skeptical of drafting Gore with a first round pick because of the injury concerns, but he's still worth a second-round pick in most formats.
There's so much to like about Rashard Mendenhall heading into 2011, but one key element about his 2010 campaign will make owners jittery. Mendenhall shined in his third season, racking up 1,503 yards over 385 carries including the postseason with 17 rush touchdowns (13 in the regular season). He added another 219 yards on 27 catches over his 19 games and lost just three fumbles (including one in Super Bowl XLV). He scored fewer than 10 Fantasy points just six times over the course of the season and had at least 15 touches in all but one regular-season game. And in 2011, he'll have cupcake matchups against the AFC South and NFC West defenses as well as games against the Browns and Bengals (81 car., 285 yds., four TDs in four games vs. Ohio rivals in 2010). The lone drawback to drafting Mendenhall is that running backs that play in a Super Bowl typically fall off the following year, a study we've done with uncanny results. Granted, every player is different, and Mendenhall is still plenty young, but there is some risk in picking Mendenhall given the history of tired running backs from the season prior. Expect Mendenhall to go between 10th and 15th overall in drafts this summer, and if you're the one taking him, be smart and invest a late-round pick in his primary backup, Isaac Redman.
Matt Forte shrugged off a suspect sophomore campaign and put up real good numbers in 2010, dissolving a potential time-share situation with Chester Taylor right from the get-go. Forte's totals were awesome -- more than 1,600 total yards with nine total touchdowns -- but it's how he got them that might rub some Fantasy owners the wrong way. He had 11 or fewer Fantasy points in nine of 16 games, meaning that when he played well, he really put up big stats. And when he didn't play well, he more or less underwhelmed. But that's par for the course for most top rushers, and Forte proved last year that he can get it done on the ground or through the air, and with a treacherous offensive line. Marion Barber joins him in Chicago, but expect nice things from Forte this season -- he is considered a safe, high-end No. 2 Fantasy running back that will likely go between 12th and 20th overall in standard leagues and a bit higher in PPR formats.
Every year Fantasy owners are surprised by a running back that breaks out. Last season, LeGarrette Blount was that running back. Blount barely played until Week 8, when he started logging significant carries and led the Tampa Bay run game for the rest of the season. Despite starting only the final seven games of the season, Blount topped 1,000 yards rushing on 201 carries with six touchdowns. Expectations are high for Blount in 2011 given his likelihood of starting weekly and dominating the carries for the Bucs. He has some difficult matchups this season and isn't expected to catch more than 15 or 20 passes this season but remains a good value for Fantasy owners starting in late Round 3 as a No. 2 Fantasy running back.
Ahmad Bradshaw is staying with the Giants after signing a contract extension prior to training camp. He's also expected to be fine after ankle surgery at the end of last season, and we're looking forward to seeing how Bradshaw plays at 100 percent health. In 2010, Bradshaw dealt with nagging injuries but still managed 276 carries for 1,235 yards (4.5 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns with 47 catches for 314 yards with six fumbles – all career highs. He will share carries with Brandon Jacobs again, but Bradshaw showed last year that he can be a standout Fantasy RB in all leagues despite splitting reps. Plan on drafting him as a No. 2 Fantasy RB with a pick as early as Round 3.
