Not since LaDainian Tomlinson has there been a consensus No. 1 overall Fantasy running back like this. Arian Foster is not only expected to be the top rusher taken in every draft, but also the first player to be picked in every draft. How could he not? Last season he averaged 141.6 total yards per start (145.1 per start if you include the playoffs) and scored 12 total touchdowns. And over the last two seasons Foster has totaled over 100 yards and/or scored in 25 of 29 games. Foster did sign a lucrative contract extension this offseason, but he promised that the money will not change him, saying "I go into every season feeling like I have something to prove." He's proven enough to us that he's the cream of the crop at his position, and choosing him over an elite quarterback on Draft Day is still the right move given that you start multiple rushers and one quarterback in your league. Finalize the move by drafting his primary backup, Ben Tate, with a pick in Round 9.
LeSean McCoy is among the best Fantasy running backs in the NFL, and he should continue to improve this year. The best thing about McCoy is he's entering a contract year, which should increase his motivation for success. He was a star in 2011 with double-digits in Fantasy points in all but his final start in Week 16 at Dallas (he sat out a meaningless Week 17 game against Washington). He scored a touchdown or gained 100 rushing yards in 14 games in a row, and he had 23 or more Fantasy points (standard scoring) five times. McCoy finished the year with 1,624 total yards and 20 total touchdowns, yet he was expected to do more in the passing game (he had 78 catches for 592 yards in 2010), so that's an area where he can improve this year. Despite some comments about his playing time from Andy Reid in April, McCoy should be considered a candidate for 2,000 total yards. Plan on drafting McCoy with a Top 3 overall selection in all leagues that do not start multiple quarterbacks. Arian Foster should be the first running back drafted, but McCoy is in the conversation to come next either before or right after Ray Rice.
How will Ray Rice follow-up a career-best season? Well, if he's in a contract year again he just might duplicate his efforts. Rice was franchised by the Ravens after totaling career-highs in rush yards (1,364), rushing scores (12), receiving yards (704) and receiving touchdowns (three). It was Rice's second 2,000-total-yard season in three years and his first year with double-digit touchdowns. He's had at least 330 total touches in each of his last three years and has pretty much proven that he's among the best of the dying breed of every-down backs. Rice didn't participate in early offseason workouts with the team and wants a long-term commitment from the Ravens. The team might play hardball and not give him the mega-deal he wants, thus forcing him to play on the guaranteed one-year deal. That could motivate him to again have a big year in hopes of being among the highest-paid rushers in the league. Of course, the Ravens could always sign him to a deal before the season, and we've seen players take it easy once they get paid (Chris Johnson last year, for example). Rice seems like a hard worker with a chip on his shoulder, so perhaps he won't fall into that trap. Most Fantasy owners will ignore his contract status and take him with an early-round pick regardless; the guy is going to see a ton of work whether he's paid on a one-year deal or a 10-year deal. The No. 1 Fantasy running back will be taken with a Top-5 pick in all leagues -- potentially second overall.
Year in and year out, Fantasy owners have come to expect good numbers from Maurice Jones-Drew, and 2012 shouldn't be any different. Eleven of his 16 games in 2011 were good for at least 100 total yards, and he had less than 10 Fantasy points in three outings (standard scoring). Oh by the way, he played in all 16 games (he's played in at least 14 games every year of his career) and set career-highs in carries (343), rushing yards (1,606) and receiving touchdowns (three). But just in case you still aren't sold on Jones-Drew, there's this: Over his last three seasons as a full-timer for the Jags, he's averaging 117 total yards per game and has 34 touchdowns in those 46 games. At some point, the Jaguars will begin lessening MJD's workload and he won't quite be as valuable a player as we're used to, but that shouldn't happen this season. Consider Jones-Drew a solid No. 1 Fantasy running back worth a pick between fourth and seventh overall in all formats, and keep an eye out for his primary backup -- most likely Rashad Jennings -- with a late-round pick.
The Seahawks decided to pay Marshawn Lynch like a franchise running back when he signed a four-year, $31 million contract this offseason. He earned his paycheck with his performance last year when he had more than 1,400 total yards and 13 total touchdowns. Lynch seemingly returned to his 'Beast Mode' style when he scored a touchdown in 11 consecutive games and was showered by hometown fans with Skittles when he hit pay dirt. Though his playing history is checkered with some poor play, we've seen Lynch play well every time he's been given regular reps. That's only going to continue in the Pacific Northwest. With Pete Carroll preaching that he'll actually increase Lynch's workload by using him more on third downs (he had 28 catches last year but caught a career-best 47 passes in 2008), owners have no choice but to roll with him as a No. 1 Fantasy running back. Lynch is worth drafting toward the end of Round 1 in all formats as he has the chance for a repeat performance.
Ryan Mathews is someone you'll want on your Fantasy team in 2012. After a productive sophomore season in 2011 when he had 222 carries for 1,091 yards and six touchdowns and 50 catches for 455 yards -- an average of 12.4 Fantasy points per game -- he should actually see increased production this year. Mike Tolbert is gone after signing as a free agent in Carolina, and Mathews should have little competition for carries. He played in 14 games last year, sitting out a meaningless game in Week 17 and resting a groin injury in early November, so hopefully the serious injury concerns are behind him. If Mathews can take over the goal-line work and continue to be a factor in the passing game we can see him being well over 1,500 total yards and close to double digits in touchdowns. That makes him an elite Fantasy running back and a No. 1 option worth drafting toward the end of Round 1 in all leagues.
Ask Titans coach Mike Munchak why Chris Johnson failed in 2011 and he'll blame his conditioning as well as his supporting cast. Both issues should be long gone this year as Johnson will be a willing training camp participant, and the Titans made moves to spruce up their offensive line. Hopefully, Johnson will return to the rusher who averaged nearly 120 total yards per game and over 12 touchdowns per season in his first three years and not the lug who averaged 91.5 yards per game and scored four times in 2011. What's nice about Johnson is that he's still in a situation where he won't share the ball much, and you can't say that about most backs in the league. Because of that 20-touch potential to go with his gamebreaking speed, Johnson remains a candidate to be a low-end No. 1 Fantasy running back and even a late first-round pick. Forget about last year's misfortunes -- bank on him rebounding and being a better option than he was last season. He's worth a pick between 10th and 20th overall in all leagues.
Steven Jackson continues to prove he's among the best Fantasy options in all leagues. Heading into 2012, the Rams are talking about giving Jackson some help to keep him fresh, but he relishes his role as a workhorse. Since 2005, Jackson has at least 1,300 total yards in all but one season, which was 2007 when he was limited to 12 games. He still managed 1,273 total yards that year. In 2011, Jackson had more than 1,400 total yards and six touchdowns. We'd like to see Jackson score more (he has just 12 total touchdowns over the last two seasons), but it's difficult to argue with his production. Now, Jackson could be near the point of a breakdown, which is why the Rams are concerned. But as long as he's the starter without losing touches to either a third-down back or a goal-line vulture, he should be drafted as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy running back with a pick between 11th and 18th overall. Jackson, who has at least 40 catches in six of eight NFL seasons, also remains a standout option in PPR formats.
For the third time in four years, Michael Turner topped 300 carries and 1,300 rush yards while posting double-digit touchdowns for the fourth straight season. He's also maintained a 4.0-plus rushing average over those four seasons. That's the kind of consistency that Fantasy owners crave, but there's no guarantee Turner will be quite as good in 2012. For starters, the Falcons have already come out and said they'll limit his reps; Jacquizz Rodgers might take some work off of his plate. Turner also turned 30 this year and has put up 1,189 of his 1,417 career carries over the last four years. He also had some pretty poor games down the stretch of 2011 until he finished his season off against an uninterested Bucs team in Week 17. But he'll still be the main rusher in the Falcons offense and play with a unit that has such a great passing threat that he'll never see eight defenders in the box. A slightly improved schedule should help too. We think Turner is in the mix as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy RB worth a pick in Round 2 in standard drafts and closer to Round 3 in PPR formats.
Matt Forte has totaled at least 1,400 yards every season of his career. He might have a hard time doing that in 2012. Forte was franchised by the Bears and has yet to sign his one-year tender, much less a rich contract extension. A holdout from training camp might be in the cards for him, a scenario the Bears are prepared for with the addition of Michael Bush. In fact, the plan is for Bush to help Forte with the rushing workload the same way Marion Barber was supposed to last year. That's going to wreck Forte's potential for a slew of yardage, not to mention hurt his touchdown totals, which have been an issue for him in two of his last three years anyway. We love the guy as a player, but the potential for his touches to drop a little along with him potentially holding out of training camp casts a dark shadow on his Fantasy prospects for 2012. We'll see what happens next with Forte, but for now drop him to a borderline No. 1 running back worth a pick in Round 2 in standard formats and late Round 1 in PPR formats.
With Darren McFadden, injuries are at the forefront, not his electric play or impressive stat totals. After staying healthy for much of 2010, McFadden was limited to seven games in 2011 due to a Lisfranc injury to his right foot. But he's practiced in full this offseason and will be ready to be the primary weapon in the Raiders offense. Prior to going down, McFadden had 113 carries for 614 rushing yards and four touchdowns and 19 catches for 154 yards and one touchdown. He was averaging 14.3 Fantasy points per game, which would have made him a Top 10 running back if he kept up that pace -- and that was when he was sharing time with Michael Bush. Here are some other stats to ponder: McFadden has averaged 88.5 rush yards and 33.0 receiving yards over his last 20 starts with 15 total touchdowns -- all with Bush there as well. Bush is gone now, and McFadden's touches could actually increase given the lack of quality talent behind him. But so could the risk of injury, which is why McFadden should be considered a low-end No. 1 Fantasy rusher. He should be drafted in Round 2 with the idea of drafting his backup (Mike Goodson) later on. That premise isn't so bad compared to previous seasons because Bush would have required a mid-round pick. Now those owners who take McFadden early can wait until the middle/late rounds to take Goodson. Consider McFadden the largest risk-reward running back in Fantasy Football this season.
DeMarco Murray enters this season with plenty of promise after a solid debut in his rookie year. Murray was limited by injuries to start the season, but when he got a chance for increased playing time in Week 7 he took off. Murray had 25 carries for 253 yards and a touchdown against the Rams that week, which started a run of double digits in Fantasy points in four of his next five games (standard scoring). An ankle injury cost him the final three games of the season, but Murray showed enough to make Fantasy owners want to grab him for his sophomore campaign. The catch is that he's been injury prone dating back to his college days. Sharing reps will also be an issue for him so long as Felix Jones is on the roster, but we think Murray should wrestle the strong majority of snaps including at the goal-line. Getting fullback Lawrence Vickers to pop holes open for him will only help. When healthy, he should be a stud. We like the idea of drafting Murray as a solid No. 2 Fantasy running back with the chance for him to be a No. 1 option. He is worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all leagues, and pairing him with Jones with a pick in the middle rounds is strongly encouraged.
Ahmad Bradshaw is in line for a big year if he can stay on the field. The Giants let Brandon Jacobs leave for the 49ers as a free agent, meaning Bradshaw shouldn't have to worry about sharing as many carries as he has in the past even with the Giants drafting David Wilson. The Giants will likely add a running back for depth, but Bradshaw should get the majority of touches. The key, however, will be staying healthy since Bradshaw has a history of foot problems and missed four games in 2011. He had a quality postseason effort in helping the Giants win the Super Bowl, and he is capable of reaching 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns given a full workload. We like Bradshaw as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy rusher who should be drafted in Round 3 in most formats. Just make sure he is 100 percent healthy in training camp and that his foot problems are a thing of the past.
The Browns made Alabama running back Trent Richardson their first-round pick with the No. 3 overall pick. Replacing Mark Ingram as the Tide's top back in 2011, he averaged 5.9 yards per carry (1,679 yards on 283 totes) with 21 touchdowns. He added another three scores through the air on 29 grabs for 338 yards. He had six straight games with at least 107 rush yards and had at least 100 total yards in all but one game in 2011 (he had three 200-total-yard games!). Richardson might be the best running back prospect to come out since Adrian Peterson. He's strong, quick, versatile and tough -- and he'll fit in perfectly with what the Browns are doing. There is a ton to like here even though he'll play in the rough-and-tumble AFC North and two dates per year against the Ravens and Steelers. We'd like to see the Browns do more with their passing attack to help ease the defensive pressure Richardson will attract, but at the very least he's a candidate for over 15 touches per week with goal-line duty. It might take one big preseason play for the hype on Richardson to reach unreasonable levels. But until then consider him a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth the gamble with a pick starting in Round 3.
Fred Jackson signed a two-year contract extension in early May with the Bills, likely signaling his return to the starting job. He had it last year and did exceptionally well with it through 10 games (1,376 total yards and six touchdowns) before suffering a broken leg in Week 11, ending his season. When he went down, C.J. Spiller took over and shined, leaving the Bills with two backs who deserve to play a lot this year. Jackson should remain the starter and the workhorse, but losing some carries will hurt his production. Sure, the fact that Jackson is 31 is alarming, but the Bills wouldn't have given him a modest extension if they didn't think he'd do well. Plus he's not a typical 31-year-old -- Jackson's career got started later than most backs, so he should still be productive. He's been a beast when healthy (more than 3,800 total yards and 15 total touchdowns the past three years), and he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy running back. Plan on drafting him around Round 4 in all leagues.
