Mike Tolbert made an interesting career move this offseason when he signed a four-year deal in Carolina, leaving the Chargers. Tolbert, who is familiar with the offense in Carolina thanks to his days with offensive guru Rob Chudzinski, is expected to play more as a fullback rather than a running back since the Panthers are loaded at tailback with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That doesn't mean Tolbert won't touch the ball, but his ability to help Fantasy owners just got a lot worse. Tolbert, who had 303 carries for 1,325 yards and 19 touchdowns and 79 catches for 649 yards and two touchdowns the past two years, might just become a glorified goal-line back and occasional weapon. He went from a potential No. 2 Fantasy running back to a low-end reserve. Tolbert is still worth drafting with a late-round pick, but as long as Williams and Stewart are healthy, we aren't going to see Tolbert doing much compared to how he was used with the Chargers.
Felix Jones enters this season as the likely No. 2 running back in Dallas behind DeMarco Murray. The two are expected to split carries, but Murray should be the dominant rusher so long as he stays healthy. Still, Jones will have a prominent role, and he played well in 2011 when he had the opportunity (and was healthy). He had four games with double digits in Fantasy points (standard scoring) in the 12 games he was active. He missed time due to an ankle injury, but Jones played well late in the year when Murray was out. Plan on drafting Jones with a mid-round pick as a quality backup. He is a necessary handcuff option for Murray, and Jones should again have his moments when given a chance for increased touches.
Typically, a running back who tops 1,000 rushing yards and at least six touchdowns three consecutive seasons would be in demand. But Cedric Benson has done exactly that and doesn't have a team to call his own this season. Benson's workload dipped last year, but he still managed to churn his way to 1,067 yards, scoring six times during the regular season and once in the playoffs. Benson will turn 30 this December, and a team might not be willing to use him as anything more than a part-time grinder. We think he'll eventually sign somewhere (it won't be Cincinnati after they gave a large contract to BenJarvus Green-Ellis), but he won't be as beneficial to Fantasy owners as he once was. We suspect he'll sign on and be worth drafting as a middle- to late-round pick as a reserve rusher.
Rashard Mendenhall is expected to miss part, if not all, of the 2012 season while rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered on January 1 of this year. It is almost a certainty that he will miss training camp and the preseason, meaning that he won't be in great shape when the games start to count. Isaac Redman is among the Steelers expected to fill in while Mendenhall is sidelined. Anyone who drafts Mendenhall is making a long-term commitment to him as he'll be a benchwarmer for Fantasy owners until later on in the year. Because of that, he'll fall to at least the middle rounds of drafts. If you're willing to wait for Mendenhall, and expect him to play well upon his return, grab him starting in Round 9 or 10. If you're not willing to wait, or just don't want to take the risk on him being effective, look to Redman as a possible sleeper.
Virginia Tech running back David Wilson was the first-round pick of the Giants, bolstering their running back corps. Wilson offers plenty of variety after rushing for 1.627 yards and nine touchdowns last season with the Hokies, adding 21 grabs for 126 yards and another score. He's also worked returning kickoffs, scoring on two of his 22 returns in 2010 (none on 20 returns in 2011). Wilson collected 4,349 all-purpose yards and scored 25 touchdowns in only three seasons at Virginia Tech and should contribute right away on special teams for the Giants. He also can offer a change-of-pace option to the ground game behind starter Ahmad Bradshaw. But unless (or until) Bradshaw misses significant playing time, Wilson isn't expected to post enough stats to warrant Fantasy use. We'd spend a late pick on him in seasonal drafts, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only formats.
