This year, all we want is for Antonio Gates to stay healthy. He's had a problem doing that lately as foot and toe injuries have held him back. In 2010, Gates was limited to 10 games, but he's expected to be 100 percent healthy to start the year. Owners should be concerned about his health now that he's turning 30, but we still believe he'll be a standout Fantasy option worth drafting as the No. 1 tight end in all leagues starting in Round 4. Last year, prior to getting hurt, Gates was on pace for a career year but ended with 50 catches for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns. If you project that for a full season, he would have finished with 80 catches for 1,251 yards and 16 touchdowns. Now, it will be hard for him to reach those totals with Vincent Jackson back for a full year, but Gates is still capable of 75 catches, 1,110 yards and eight touchdowns, which make him a star at his position. Just consider the possibility of carrying a backup tight end just in case he misses relevant playing time.
Jason Witten continues to be one of the top Fantasy options at his position. In 2010, Witten had his fourth year in a row with at least 80 catches and he's reached at least 90 grabs in three of the past four seasons. He also had his third 1,000-yard season and second in a row. But the best news for Fantasy owners was Witten set a career high with nine touchdowns. The Cowboys made an effort to get Witten more involved in the red zone and he didn't let his coaches or Fantasy owners down. We expect Witten to have another tremendous season in 2011 and he should be considered a top 3 player at his position. Plan on drafting Witten as early as Round 4 in all leagues. Once Antonio Gates is off the board, Witten will be too within the next 10 picks.
A freak wrist injury ended Dallas Clark's 2010 season early and now the veteran is out to recoup the stats he lost out on. Averaging a touchdown every two games and six catches per game before getting hurt, Clark was on pace to finish as a top 5 Fantasy tight end, and that's exactly how owners should view him heading into 2011 drafts. A huge component of the Colts offense, Clark should be expected to fall off draft boards between Rounds 4 and 5, especially once someone takes Antonio Gates (Clark should follow rather quickly). Obviously, so long as he proves to be healthy in time for the start of the season, owners can count on Clark to be a devastating Fantasy starter.
Vernon Davis has proven the past two years that he's among the best Fantasy options at his position. In 2009, Davis had a breakout season with 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns, and he followed that up in 2010 with 56 catches for 914 yards and seven touchdowns. His stats could improve this year given the 49ers' turn to a West Coast offense as well as a possible upgrade at QB, but Davis has shown he can be successful even with inconsistent play from his quarterback. We consider Davis a No. 1 option, and he should be drafted toward the end of Round 4 or beginning of Round 5 in all leagues.
For the second year in a row, Jermichael Finley was sacked by a knee injury. In 2009, he missed three games; in 2010, he missed the Packers' run to the Super Bowl. Finley had 21 grabs for 301 yards (an excellent 14.3 avg.) and a score in just five games before undergoing multiple surgeries for a torn meniscus. He should be OK for the start of the 2011 season, but owners are a bit jittery about spending a big pick on Finley given his knee problems. Here are the facts: Finley is a dynamic option for Aaron Rodgers in the Packers offense, and so as long as he's healthy he should produce (he began running routes in late April). But the smart move is to draft Finley no earlier than Round 7 (if someone reaches for him that's OK – there are plenty of good tight ends this year) and pick up a No. 2 tight end with a late-round pick in case he misses time. It would behoove Finley to play big this season and not get bogged down by an injury because he's in a contract year.
This might be a big year for Kellen Winslow. He's in a potent offense where he is no longer the only legitimate passing threat, he's working with a great quarterback and he didn't have surgery this offseason. The man has stayed healthy for two straight seasons, catching 143 passes in the process with five scores each year. Though he's not quite as explosive a player as he was, he's going to prove to be an outstanding bargain for Fantasy owners in 2011. Expect Winslow to be available as early as Round 10 and as late in Round 12, long after the elite tight end choices are off the board. He's a low-risk, high-reward candidate given his recent track record of health and production meshed with the upside of the Buccaneers' offense.
If Owen Daniels plays in 2011 like he finished 2010, the folks who draft him will be very happy. After a slow recovery process from a torn ACL, Daniels struggled when he was on the field in limited reps. That changed in Weeks 14 through 17 when he totaled 22 catches for 271 yards and two scores, rekindling thoughts of his breakout '09 campaign. Daniels signed a four-year deal this offseason to stay in Houston and remain a key figure in head coach Gary Kubiak's offense. After speaking with Daniels this summer and hearing his excitement about not having to come back from an injury, we think he'll deliver. Consider Daniels a No. 1 Fantasy TE worth snaring between Rounds 8 and 10.
The Saints are all set to trust second-year player Jimmy Graham as their starting tight end in 2011 and after last season it's no surprise. Graham, a third-round pick, finished the regular season scoring in three straight games and totaling five touchdowns and 307 yards in the Saints' last eight contests (he didn't play in the postseason due to an ankle injury). While Graham's yardage left a lot to be desired in most games, it was obvious that his presence in the red zone was welcomed by the Saints and especially quarterback Drew Brees. Fantasy owners will bank on that in 2011 and draft Graham as a middle- to low-end No. 1 Fantasy tight end worth a pick in the middle rounds. He's not the best tight end in Fantasy, but he's got the skill set to get near there.
Fantasy owners are concerned that Tony Gonzalez is on the downside of his career after his receptions and receiving yards fell for the third straight year. With 14 seasons under his belt, it's no surprise. Gonzalez fared slightly better on turf than on grass and seemingly did better with divisional rivals, but really his best play came early in the season and saw most of his receptions come between the 20s (all of his touchdowns came in the red zone). Expect his touchdown production to improve a bit but for his receiving totals to sink with Julio Jones joining the Falcons offense this season. We know that Gonzalez brings quite a pedigree to the table, and we recommend him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy TE, but he's no longer worth the mid-round pick that he'd been going for in drafts. If Gonzalez falls to you in drafts starting in Round 9 or 10 and you need a tight end, drafting him is fine. But don't be the guy who reaches for him this summer.
Zach Miller landed in Seattle in early August after it was believed that he'd end up re-signing with the Raiders. In Seattle he'll see plenty of playing time, just as he would have in Oakland, and be a great short- to mid-range target, as he would have in Oakland. But he'll have better talent around him (Sidney Rice and Mike Williams) and a slight downgrade at quarterback. That's not good for Miller's Fantasy prospects. Consider him a late-round pick as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy TE at this point.
Rob Gronkowski had a tremendous rookie season in 2010 and should be able to build off that this year. Gronkowski, sharing time with fellow rookie Aaron Hernandez, had 42 catches for 546 yards and 10 touchdowns on 59 targets. Gronkowski led New England in touchdowns thanks to a neat post-up move he created and remains the best red-zone threat for the Patriots entering this season. We didn't see him leave the field much during the second half of the season and suspect he'll be on the field a lot in 2011. Gronkowski is a top 10 Fantasy tight end worth drafting with a pick between Rounds 6 and 8, well ahead of Hernandez.
Brandon Pettigrew made quite an impression last season and now expectations are that he'll take the next step in 2011. Pettigrew caught 71 passes for 722 yards and four scores last year coming off of a torn ACL, often drawing single coverage against smaller defenders thanks to Calvin Johnson stretching defenses. Pettigrew had at least four grabs in 10 games and finished last year with more Fantasy points than Todd Heap and Kevin Boss. Don't think of Pettigrew as the next Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis -- that's a reach -- but if you're looking for a low-risk, high-end No. 2 Fantasy tight end, grab him with a late-round pick.
Aaron Hernandez should be fine entering the 2011 season despite undergoing hip surgery in February. Hernandez was mostly solid as a rookie in 2010 with 45 catches for 563 yards and six touchdowns on 64 targets. He started out the season as the best tight end for the Patriots, but he fell behind fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski in terms of his production, part of which can be attributed to the hip injury, which cost him the final two games of the year. Hernandez is almost more of a receiver than tight end in New England, but he still plays at a high level with quality Fantasy production. He had four games with double digits in Fantasy points and six games with at least six points. We consider Hernandez a high-end No. 2 Fantasy tight end, worth a late-round pick in all leagues. Gronkowski has more upside based on his red-zone ability, but Hernandez should remain a significant part of New England's passing game. It sure won't hurt that he might offer some wide receiver production from the tight end position.
Brent Celek went from Fantasy stud in 2009 to dud in 2010. Two years ago, Celek had 76 catches for 971 yards and eight touchdowns and established himself as a No. 1 Fantasy TE. But then last year, Celek fell apart with just 41 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns. He spent more time blocking last year than he did in 2009, and he also failed to develop a rapport with Michael Vick (or perhaps Vick overlooked him while aiming for DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin). Heading into this season, Celek should play better than he did in 2010, but we still consider him a No. 2 Fantasy TE. He should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues, and if he starts off the season playing well then just add him off the waiver wire.
There's a lot to like, and dislike, about Marcedes Lewis. Last year he finally met some expectations while playing in a contract year and posted across-the-board career-best totals, including a touchdown every 5.8 catches. And he's on a team with no established receiving threats. So what's not to like? How about the fact that 700 yards receiving was a career best for Lewis by nearly 200 yards, and before getting those 10 scores in 2010, he had no more than two in any of his previous four seasons. And the Jaguars gave him a five-year contract extension with $18 million guaranteed, so there's no contract year for him anymore. There's risk in drafting Lewis this summer, but so long as you do it with a late-round pick, it shouldn't burn you too bad. We like him best as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 Fantasy tight end.
