There are only a handful of players whose intense hype matches his Fantasy value, and tight end Rob Gronkowski is one of them. Check out these stats: He has 31 touchdowns in 36 career games, averaged nearly 83 yards per game last regular season and failed to produce at least 10 Fantasy points (standard scoring) in five of his 16 regular-season games last year. If Gronkowski were a wide receiver he'd be second-best to Calvin Johnson in Fantasy. Clearly, he's great, he's over his ankle injury from February, and no regression is expected as defenses should continue to struggle with him. So when should you draft him? Despite his incredible production and expectations, most Fantasy leagues only start one tight end, so dedicating a very early-round pick to Gronkowski would close the door on picking up a tight end later at a better value, not to mention cost you a quality player at another position in the early rounds. But even with that in mind, his work cannot be ignored, and there are simply too many Fantasy points at stake with him. If you're prepared to commit to a tight end early on, Gronkowski is well worth a second-round pick regardless of format. The only kind of leagues where we'd take him in Round 1 is in formats that do not require starting a tight end, meaning that Gronkowski can be valued as a receiver instead. Just remember this: The smaller the league, the more quality tight ends will be available.
Chances are you already know what you're getting in Saints tight end Jimmy Graham: A freakish talent with huge size, very good speed and excellent hands with the eyes of an All-Pro quarterback on him at all times. The 149 targets Graham had last season were not only the most for any tight end but sixth-best across the whole league. And in 18 games, he had just five contests without 100 yards or a touchdown. The guy is a beast, and no slow down is expected. With Rob Gronkowski considered the top tight end in Fantasy, Graham is a solid second with potential to overtake him, though both will be joined at the hip on Draft Day (figure Graham to get taken within 10 picks of Gronkowski). That makes Graham a good value as a third-round pick in standard leagues, a second-round pick in PPR leagues and a potential first-round pick in leagues that allow tight ends to be counted as wide receivers.
The last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson for an extended period of time was 2010. He missed the first 10 games of the year, and with Philip Rivers leaning on Antonio Gates the tight end posted a whopping 50 catches for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns over that span. But then Gates went down with a foot injury that he couldn't get quite fixed. He was limited to 13 games last year but still finished with 64 catches for 778 yards and seven touchdowns. In mid-May, Norv Turner declared Gates healthy, and he participated in his first offseason practice session in two years. When healthy, he's an elite talent, but foot problems might plague him the rest of his career. Still, you have to draft Gates with the hope he plays a full season, just make sure you're covered with a quality backup option. We still value Gates as a Top 5 Fantasy tight end worth taking toward the end of Round 4/beginning of Round 5, which frankly is a good bargain compared to the likes of Gronkowski and Graham. We hope Jackson's departure leads to another big year for Gates.
Aaron Hernandez might be listed as a tight end, but he typically lines up like a wide receiver and is one of two New England behemoths expected to help propel Tom Brady's stats. Hernandez had a tremendous sophomore year in 2011 with 79 catches for 910 yards and seven touchdowns, but he was overshadowed by Rob Gronkowski's career year (90 catches for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns). Still, Hernandez has unlimited potential and should be considered a prime No. 1 Fantasy option in all leagues worth drafting as early as Round 4 as the third tight end drafted, and that actually makes him a nice bargain compared to Gronkowski (who will be taken in Round 2) and the Saints' Jimmy Graham (who will be taken in Round 3).
Jason Witten continues to be one of the top Fantasy options at his position. In 2011, Witten had his fifth year in a row with at least 75 catches, and he's reached at least 90 grabs in three of those past five seasons. He also had his sixth year with at least 940 receiving yards, including his fifth in a row. He only had five touchdowns, which continues to be a problem for him (he has five touchdowns or fewer in five of nine years), but he is still considered a solid, safe Fantasy tight end in all formats, especially PPR leagues. We consider Witten a Top 5 Fantasy tight end worth drafting as early as Round 6 after the likes of Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Gates come off the board. He might go earlier in PPR leagues.
Fantasy owners have to hope that Vernon Davis picks up where last season ended. Davis closed the season on a tear with five touchdowns in his final five games, including the playoffs, and three games with at least 112 yards. He had 10 catches for 292 yards and four touchdowns in two postseason games against New Orleans and the Giants, and his playoff outing completely overshadowed his regular season when he had just seven games with double digits in Fantasy points. Davis remains a No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues even with the 49ers adding receivers this offseason in Mario Manningham and Randy Moss. Davis will lose some targets with those additions, but he will also gain more single coverage, which will help his performance. Plan on drafting Davis around Round 5 or 6 in the majority of leagues.
Fantasy owners have learned to accept Jermichael Finley as a high quality tight end, though his production doesn't always suggest as such. Finley technically finished as a Top 5 option, but his numbers came sparingly. Finley had an 85-yard, three-touchdown game at Chicago in Week 3 last year and a 64-yard, one touchdown game vs. Detroit in Week 17 (when a lot of people aren't playing Fantasy). Take those two games away and Finley averaged 44 receiving yards per game and one touchdown every 11.25 receptions. He's got room to improve not only his consistency but also his numbers, and the Packers should remain a pass-happy team. Finley's worth taking as a weekly must-start tight end starting in Round 6.
Tony Gonzalez didn't get lost in the shuffle in Atlanta with Roddy White and Julio Jones beginning to form one of the most dangerous receiver tandems in football. In fact, his stats improved across the board from 2010 as he scored seven times and caught 80 balls for 875 yards. Fine, Gonzalez isn't Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, but he still finished fourth in Fantasy points among all tight ends in standard formats and had at least 80 receiving yards or 20 yards and a touchdown in seven of 16 games. He's a pretty good bargain in Fantasy: He'll give you good stats at the tight end position and can be had with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts after the likes of Jason Witten and Vernon Davis.
Fred Davis was long thought of as one of the best backup tight ends in the NFL, but he finally got the chance to shine in 2011 and should play well again in 2012. Davis was given the franchise tag by the Redskins this offseason and was quick to sign his tender sheet. He returns after a career season in which he established single-season highs in receptions (59) and receiving yards (796). The 796 yards were the fourth-most in a season by a tight end in Redskins history. Davis had a solid season in 2011 before his four-game suspension for failing multiple drug tests ended his year. We're glad Davis is back with the Redskins, and he should get an upgrade at quarterback with rookie Robert Griffin III. So long as he stays focused on football, expect Davis to be drafted with a mid-round pick as a No. 1 tight end on Draft Day.
Brent Celek returned as a solid Fantasy tight end in 2011 after a disappearing act in 2010, and Fantasy owners want to know if the real Celek will show himself. He was a standout option in 2009 as well, and the hope is he will remain a consistent threat this season. We believe in Celek because prior to last year, Michael Vick said he would make a concerted effort to get his tight end more involved. The result was five games with double digits in Fantasy points (standard scoring), including three in a row to close the season. As such, Celek finished as the No. 8 tight end in standard leagues. He might not be a tight end to target on Draft Day, but if you decide to pass on the elite options he is a great fallback plan with a pick starting in Round 8 or 9.
Everyone who plays Fantasy Football (and everyone in the NFL) is looking for the next Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. Jermaine Gresham might be it. The big tight end caught over 50 passes for the second season in a row for the Bengals in 2011, adding a career-best 596 yards and six touchdowns. What's more, there's room for improvement as he's never had more than 85 yards in a game and has scored in back-to-back games just once in two seasons. However, he's had at least four catches in 17 of his 30 career games (including the playoffs), with 10 such games happening last year. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has spoken highly about Gresham and wants to involve him more. With second-year quarterback Andy Dalton improving as a passer, we can only think that Gresham has nowhere to go but up. Draft him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy tight end worth a pick starting in Round 9.
Brandon Pettigrew looks like he should be a dominant Fantasy tight end. He's 6-foot-5, built like a house and plays a ton in the Lions offense. But his stats don't reflect that, even with a career-best 83 catches in 2011. Pettigrew had 777 yards on those 83 grabs, good for just a 9.4 receiving average, with five touchdowns. He's simply not the gamebreaker that Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski is, nor is he a guy that the Lions have to lean on. Calvin Johnson not only takes targets away from him, but even backup tight end Tony Scheffler cuts into his work (Scheffler had six touchdowns last season). So while Pettigrew looks the part of a quality Fantasy tight end, he really only qualifies as a quality choice in PPR leagues because he'll catch the ball a ton (at least four catches in 23 of last 32 games). Consider him a good starter, not a great one, in standard formats, worth a late-round pick.
If you decide to pass on spending a big pick for an elite tight end, you might want to consider Jacob Tamme later on. In fact, you might not regret making such a move. Tamme follows former Colts teammate Peyton Manning to Denver, and it's there where he's expected to take on a lot of playing time and be a factor in the offense. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less offense. In 10 games without Clark and with Manning in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. That's the kind of total he can exceed in Denver. He's got really good athleticism and has been an effective receiver dating back to his high school days. Expect him to have some Dallas Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 tight end.
We're not sure if Owen Daniels can be trusted as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end anymore. He started 2011 red hot, posting at least eight Fantasy points (standard scoring) in four of his first five games. He did it once more the rest of the season (Week 14), and part of the reason could be Matt Schaub (foot) going down. He had below five Fantasy points in 10 games the rest of the year, including the playoffs. Daniels has plenty of potential to be a good Fantasy contributor, but it's hard to trust him on a consistent long-term basis. He's best considered as a top-end backup worth a late pick in all drafts, but don't be surprised if he rebounds with a full year with Schaub.
Stanford tight end Coby Fleener will join college teammate Andrew Luck in Indianapolis after the Colts took him in the second round of the draft. In 2011, Fleener averaged 19.6 yards per reception with 10 touchdown receptions, which followed up an eight-touchdown campaign in 2010. This is the perfect spot for Fleener and has the makings of Peyton Manning to Dallas Clark for years and years. The two obviously have chemistry going back to their Stanford days and should be able to connect regularly as soon as Week 1 this season. Fleener isn't a thumper as a blocker, but he does have surprising foot speed, agility and leaping ability for a player of his size, making him a legitimate threat down the seam. We see him as someone well worth the risk of taking with a late-round pick in seasonal drafts, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.
