As expected, Patriots WR Randy Moss saw his stats drop in 2008. For starters, he was coming off a record-setting year in 2007 and a Super Bowl loss, and then he lost Tom Brady (knee) in the first week of the season. Moss still posted quality stats with 69 catches for 1,008 yards (14.6 avg.) and 11 touchdowns, but he dropped from the perch as the No. 1 wide receiver in Fantasy Football. He still remains a No. 1 player at his position and should be drafted in Round 2 of all leagues, especially since it appears Brady will return at close to 100 percent, something Moss has said he's excited about.
Terrell Owens might have totaled 1,052 yards on 69 catches (15.2 avg.) for 10 touchdowns in 2008, but those numbers look better than they really were. That's because Owens had just two 100-yard games (a 213-yard effort vs. the 49ers and a 103-yard effort at the Eagles in Week 17) and had five touchdowns through the first five weeks and five in the remaining 11. Excluding his well-documented 2005 season, these cumulative totals were his worst since 2000. But that didn't stop the Bills from signing him two days after the Cowboys released him this offseason. In Buffalo, Owens will be paired with Lee Evans and catch passes from third-year passer Trent Edwards. Before you get ready to draft Owens with a Top-20 pick, remember that he's 35 years old and his legs don't send him downfield as fast as they used to. He also missed three weeks of the preseason with a sprained toe. Edwards has limited experience and can't throw the ball as well as past quarterbacks have for T.O. And while Lee Evans will play opposite him, the book is out on how to defend Owens: Jam him at the line of scrimmage and send his timing off. We see Owens' value limited to being a possession and red-zone threat, which means plenty of touchdowns, but yardage tough to come by. Let's also not forget about the unforgiving weather in Western New York, especially in the latter half of the season when the winds make it hard to catch the ball. Consider Owens a No. 2 Fantasy WR -- he has the upside to play like a No. 1 but we think it's best to play it safe. He's worth a pick between Rounds 4 and 5.
Fantasy owners blasted Braylon Edwards last season after taking him as a Top-5 WR following his breakout 2007. But he fell off the map in 2008 with just 55 catches for 877 yards (15.9 avg.) and three touchdowns. That was 13 touchdowns less than he had in 2007. Part of the problem was a litany of drops, and part of the problem was poor QB play. Mid-April rumors had Edwards leaving Cleveland, but the team didn't move him. But in late July, Edwards failed his physical for undisclosed reasons and was placed on the Non-Football Injury list, meaning he got hurt doing a non-football activity. This could impact his availability and reliability heading into the 2009 campaign, making him a potential headache to own. He's worth a look as a No. 3 Fantasy WR with some upside, but with QB issues in Cleveland compounding Edwards' other problems, he could struggle again in what is a contract year. Think mid-round pick on Edwards.
If it wasn't clear before that Reggie Wayne is the top option for the Colts, the team made it clear by releasing Marvin Harrison in the offseason. Wayne will now go it alone with Harrison gone (tight end Dallas Clark and wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez are still in Indy), and Peyton Manning will continue to find him. Wayne has six 100-yard games and eight touchdowns in 14 career contests without Harrison. He also did well in 2008 without Harrison, catching 82 passes for 1,145 yards (14.0 avg.) and six touchdowns. He even took one for the team when he restructured his contract in late April, lowering his annual salary while getting a bonus. Expect Wayne to be a safe No. 1 Fantasy WR worth a pick in Round 2 in nearly every draft this summer.
Larry Fitzgerald's solid regular season and amazing postseason propelled him into being the clear-cut No. 1 Fantasy WR heading into 2009 drafts. His incredible blend of talent, size and ability put him a smidge ahead of Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson for head of the class. He finished the regular season with 96 catches, 1,431 yards (14.9 avg.) and 12 touchdowns with seven 100-yard games and only three games without 100 yards and/or a touchdown. His postseason was just as sweet: 30 catches for 546 yards (18.2 avg.) and seven scores, an NFL single-postseason record. Just for fun, let's put the 20 games together: 126 catches for 1,978 yards (15.6 avg.) and 19 scores. So long as Kurt Warner remains with the Cardinals, the only thing you'll have to worry about with 'Larry Fabulous' is a Super Bowl hangover. Ultimately, he's a top-end No. 1 Fantasy WR worth a pick between 10th and 15th overall in all drafts this summer, and a lot of owners will pair him with another stud receiver (Andre or Calvin Johnson) to form a tough-to-top duo with their first two picks.
Last year, we predicted Andre Johnson would finish as the No. 1 WR in Fantasy Football, and in leagues where receptions counted, he was the best. In standard formats, Johnson was just behind Larry Fitzgerald, but the stats were close. Johnson was a stud in 2008 with a career-high 115 catches for a career-high 1,575 yards and a career-tying eight touchdowns. He played 16 games for the first time since 2006 and dispelled any notion of being injury prone. Now, if Johnson can get Matt Schaub to stay healthy, the sky's the limit. Johnson will remain a strong candidate to get over 100 catches again and could reach double digits in touchdowns. He's an elite player at his position and either No. 1 or 1A depending on where you rank Fitzgerald. Johnson should be drafted either at the end of Round 1 or the beginning of Round 2 in all leagues. Pairing Johnson with Fitzgerald is also a popular draft trend for owners picking late in Round 1 and early in Round 2 to consider.
If not for a torn thumb ligament, Marques Colston might have had a third straight 1,000-yard season. He hurt the thumb in Week 1 and missed the next five games and didn't get any stats in a sixth. But from there, he put up solid numbers in November and December. Excluding those six games with no stats, Colston totaled 760 yards on 47 catches with five touchdowns, easily putting him on pace for another awesome season had he stayed healthy. Owners should expect Colston to play well in '09, thus making him a No. 1 Fantasy WR worth a pick between late Round 2 and Round 3. Just be wary of his injury-prone ways (he's missed seven games in three seasons), and he comes into this season following a microfracture knee procedure he had in January, although he's expected to be fine for training camp.
Steve Smith's yardage rose in a big way in 2008, but his touchdown production declined for the fourth straight season. Playing in 14 games thanks to a two-game suspension stemming from a training camp fight with a teammate, Smith caught 78 passes for 1,421 yards (a career-best 18.2 avg.) and six touchdowns, adding 40 rush yards and one fumble lost. Smith had eight games with at least 100 yards receiving and another two with 96 yards, so he clearly still can get big production. He simply lost lots of his touchdown opportunities to the Panthers' dominant run game. Even with his salary escalating dramatically this season and again next season, we still view Smith as a No. 1 Fantasy WR worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 4 in drafts this summer. A training camp shoulder sprain isn't serious enough to shake his spot on the WR rank list for now.
The decline of Torry Holt's abilities happened before our eyes in 2008 as the 10-year veteran posted his worst numbers since 2000 with 796 receiving yards on 64 catches (12.4 avg. -- a career-low) with just three touchdowns. Holt didn't have a single 100-yard game and scored all three TDs in St. Louis (one was a bobbled ball that literally landed on his chest). Holt has exactly one touchdown in his last 18 road games and hasn't posted a 100-yard game outdoors since Week 1 of the 2005 season. But none of this stopped the Jaguars from signing Holt in late April after he was release from the Rams about a month earlier. They intend to use him as a No. 1 receiver, but he is clearly not as fast as he once was and fills in more as a possession-type option for David Garrard. That said, he does play indoors at Indy and at Houston within the first three weeks of the season, and Holt could be healthy enough to post some decent stats within those first three weeks. After that, however, he plays outdoors for the rest of the year. Unless you're planning on trading him after the first three weeks of the season, let someone else in your league who recognizes Holt's name take him earlier in drafts -- we honestly wouldn't consider him until the middle-to-late rounds as a reserve Fantasy option.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh's last season in Cincinnati was a bust, thanks in part to QB Carson Palmer missing most of the season with a torn elbow ligament. Playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick as his passer for much of the year, Housh still had 92 catches for 904 yards (a gross 9.8 avg.) with just four touchdowns. But this is far from the player we've come to know over the years, and he's out to prove that in Seattle this season. Playing with Matt Hasselbeck, Houshmandzadeh should be a candidate for close to 92 catches again but with a better average and more touchdowns than last season. The 31-year-old receiver still has a lot to offer Fantasy owners as a No. 2 option with potential to be a must-start in favorable matchups. Consider him with a pick between Rounds 5 and 7 in drafts this summer.
The Giants released Plaxico Burress this offseason after a terrible 2008 season. First, Burress received a contract extension before the start of the season after his heroic 2007 campaign. Then, he was suspended for one game and docked two weeks pay for skipping a pre-bye week team meeting. He hurt his neck soon thereafter and was benched for a quarter for failing to receive treatment. He was lackadaisical in his effort after that and hurt his hamstring, missing a game because of it. Then, he accidentally shot himself in the thigh with an unlicensed handgun at a night club, was suspended and pleaded guilty in late August to the felony charges. He's expected to serve a two-year prison term and will be suspended by the NFL during that time, but not after. Thus, he's not worth owning in Fantasy play this year or next year.
Patriots WR Wes Welker has been as consistent as they come the past two seasons. He had 112 catches for 1,175 yards (10.4 avg.) and eight touchdowns in 2007 and followed that up in 2008 with 111 catches for 1,165 yards (10.5 avg.) and three touchdowns, and it didn't matter that Tom Brady (knee) was lost for the season in Week 1 and replaced by Matt Cassel. Welker remains a candidate for 100-plus catches and over 1,100 yards because the Patriots use him as a short-area target, and it only helps him that Brady is expected to be back under center. He should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR in standard formats and a middle- to low-end No. 1 option in leagues where receptions count.
Anquan Boldin had a long year and had an intriguing offseason to boot. He made a run at NFL MVP for much of the season and even was considered the best receiver in Fantasy Football when he caught 73 passes for 879 yards and 11 touchdowns through his first nine games (this includes missing two weeks with a broken sinus as the result of a vicious hit against the Jets), but then he lost some steam around Thanksgiving and hurt his shoulder, compounding his problems. His regular season saw him total 89 catches for 1,038 yards (11.7 avg.) and 11 touchdowns, and he added 14 catches for 190 yards (13.6 avg.) and a touchdown in the postseason. For the second offseason in a row, Boldin has asked for a contract extension and is waiting on the club to give it to him. The team had the chance to trade Boldin around the time of the 2009 draft, but he remains with the team. That's fine with us since he'll be a desirable No. 1 Fantasy WR worth a pick no later than Round 4 this summer so long as he's with the Cards.
Even though the Lions went 0-16 last year, there was a reason to watch them play: Calvin Johnson. The freak wide receiver overcame playing with little offensive help and five different quarterbacks to finish with career-best totals: 1,331 yards on 78 catches (17.1 avg.) and 12 touchdowns. Johnson had 100 yards receiving and/or a touchdown in 11 games last year and was able to beat double-team coverage on a number of occasions. There is little doubt that Johnson will continue to flourish in 2009, especially with the club adding the aggressive Scott Linehan as their offensive coordinator. And don't forget that it's his third NFL season, though we'd be pretty satisfied with a repeat of his stats. The addition of strong-armed QB Matthew Stafford helps his cause, though it's unknown if the rookie will overtake Daunte Culpepper for the top job in camp. But it doesn't matter -- Johnson is decidedly a No. 1 Fantasy WR worth a second-round pick (and possibly as high as 15th overall) in drafts this summer.
Brandon Marshall had a tremendous 2008 with 104 catches for 1,265 yards and six touchdowns, giving him over 100 catches, 1,200 yards and six touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. But those totals are in jeopardy of a threepeat after a tumultuous offseason. Marshall had hip surgery and chose to rehab in Orlando instead of Denver because he felt the Broncos' trainers failed to diagnose his original injury properly. He also became unhappy with the club for not giving him a contract extension as he's in the final year of his rookie deal. Marshall also saw the Broncos trade away star QB Jay Cutler to Chicago, getting Kyle Orton in return. And, Josh McDaniels is the new head coach of the Broncos, and Marshall admitted in mid-August that he hasn't gotten the nuts and bolts of his new offensive playbook down pat. On top of that, he was suspended for the final two preseason games after missing the first two. While it seems certain that he'll be a Bronco in 2009, other elements of his game (with his health the biggest factor) could hold him back. Your best bet is to draft him as a middle- to low-end No. 2 option, albeit with a fourth- or fifth-round pick, as the wideout has great upside but has a lot of red flags.
