Randy Moss was inconsistent in his play at times in 2009 and was even accused of giving up during games, but his overall body of work from last year suggests he's still among the best Fantasy wide receivers. Moss tied Larry Fitzgerald for the most touchdowns for a wide receiver in 2009 with 13. He also finished with 83 catches for 1,264 yards (15.2 yards per catch) and a lost fumble. He had nine games with double figures in Fantasy points and three games with five points or less. But this is what you get with Moss most weeks -- boom and a little bit of a bust. In the end, his stats should remain at a high level even though he will be 33 this season. In three years with the Patriots he has accumulated 250 catches for 3,765 yards and 47 touchdowns. In two seasons with Tom Brady, Moss has 181 catches for 2,757 yards and 36 touchdowns. He will likely see some extra coverage to start the season with Wes Welker coming off a knee injury, but that could also mean more targets in his direction. And he's also entering a contract year, so one last big pay day likely will motivate Moss to play big. We like Moss as a Top 5 Fantasy WR worth a pick in Round 2. He should have another outstanding season.
For the first time in Larry Fitzgerald's career he won't have Anquan Boldin as a teammate. He also loses Kurt Warner as his starting QB. That makes for a lot of transition for Fitzgerald in Arizona, but he should still post outstanding stats. In six seasons, Fitzgerald has four with at least 96 catches, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, including three in a row in all three categories. He could struggle going from Warner to Matt Leinart, and Fitzgerald's last down year came in 2006 (69 catches for 946 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games) when Leinart started 11 games a rookie. But Leinart should play better this time around with more experience, and he will lean on Fitzgerald, who remains a Top 5 Fantasy WR. He will likely slip a few spots based on the expectation he could struggle now that Warner is retired and Boldin is in Baltimore, but considering his talent you should still plan on taking Fitzgerald somewhere in Round 2. We still expect him to play well despite all the changes with the Cardinals.
A lot of people consider 2009 a bust campaign for Calvin Johnson. His final stat line suggests it was indeed a sad year: 67 catches for 984 yards (14.7 avg.) and five touchdowns with 73 rushing yards. But some hidden numbers suggest otherwise. Johnson only played in 14 games and left another game very early with a knee injury. Johnson also only played nine games that were started by rookie QB Matthew Stafford, easily the Lions' best option at quarterback all season. In fact, Johnson totaled 46 catches for 728 yards (15.8 avg.) and three TDs in those nine games, meaning he had just 19 grabs for 256 yards (13.5 avg.) and two scores in the five other contests he played in without him (including the one he left early with a knee injury). Johnson's health makes him a bit of a risk but no one can look past his potential thanks to his huge size and speed. With a year of work with Matthew Stafford under his belt, the coaching staff staying in place in Detroit and Johnson spending the offseason there working with Stafford and strengthening the muscles in his knee, there's room for optimism that Johnson rebounds strong in 2010. He's still worth drafting as a No. 1 Fantasy WR, but you can get him toward the back of Round 2 this summer instead of the front of Round 2, which is where many owners found him last summer.
By and large, many Fantasy owners considered Greg Jennings a borderline bust in 2009 as he only scored four regular-season touchdowns and went through several spells of producing only nominal stats. It is believed that Jennings played most of the season banged up but still finished with decent totals: 68 catches for 1,113 yards (16.4 avg.) and four touchdowns. He also had five games over 100 yards receiving – and nine games under 70 yards receiving. Jennings' touchdown total dropped for the second straight season, but he maintained a powerful receiving average. Fantasy owners who had Jennings in 2009 will be leery of drafting him again, but he's clearly the most polished big-play receiver in an offense that is becoming powerful and aggressive. Still, we also know that he is coming off a season where he just got a nice contract extension, and the Packers now have so many good receiving options for Aaron Rodgers to throw to that Jennings simply might not see as many opportunities as he has in the past. In 2009 for example, he was thrown at just eight more times than teammate Donald Driver. Consider Jennings a borderline No. 1 WR worth a pick between Rounds 5 and 6 in drafts this summer.
Anquan Boldin is entering a new chapter in his career after being traded from Arizona to Baltimore in March. He then signed a four-year, $28 million contract, which includes $10 million guaranteed. Boldin has the potential to be a No. 1 Fantasy WR with the Ravens, and he should thrive playing with QB Joe Flacco, who is an upgrade over what Boldin would have had with the Cardinals in Matt Leinart now that Kurt Warner has retired. We like Boldin as a must-start Fantasy option worth a pick beginning in Round 3 on Draft Day. He has at least 80 catches in five of his seven seasons in the NFL. He also has five years with at least 1,000 yards receiving and four years with at least seven touchdowns. He should match all three of those marks in Baltimore. Health is always a concern for Boldin, but he's worth the risk based on his production. Look for him to play at a high level with his new team.
Roddy White remains as the Falcons' top target and a No. 1 Fantasy WR. His yardage took a dip in 2009, but he made up for it with a career-high in touchdowns. He finished the year with 1,153 yards on 85 catches (a career-low 13.6 avg.) but the 11 scores he had helped his Fantasy owners even though he had just four 100-yard games. But he scored in all four of those games and only had seven games without 100 yards and/or a touchdown. Getting Matt Ryan back healthy for 2010 will help his cause, but the reality is that White is a safe candidate for good yardage and touchdowns over the course of the season. Continue to view him as a quality Fantasy WR worth a pick between Rounds 3 and 4 in drafts this summer.
Saints WR Marques Colston put down his third 1,000-yard season in four years in 2009 with an abundance of touchdowns, making him one of the safest picks in Fantasy Football. In fact, in every year that Colston has played at least 14 games he's had 70 or more catches, 1,000 or more yards and eight or more touchdowns. That was the case in 2009 when he grabbed 70 passes for 1,074 yards (15.3 avg.) and nine touchdowns with two fumbles. He also had 188 yards and a touchdown in three postseason games. Colston was worth at least nine Fantasy points in standard scoring leagues in eight games, more than half of the games he fully participated in, and he caught at least four passes in 10 games. Suffice to say, Colston is a solid Fantasy WR and a sure-fire Top-30 pick as a No. 1 option. Considering his track record and the passing tendencies of the Saints' offense, he's a great guy to have on your team.
Steve Smith's streak of consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards receiving was snapped in 2009 when he broke his forearm in Week 16 against the Giants, ending a strange year for the Panthers WR, but he will look to rebound this year. Limited in production last year due partially to the team's running philosophy and partially to poor QB play, Smith didn't get his first touchdown until Week 8 and had just four scores with one 100-yard game with Jake Delhomme under center. Late in the season Smith got going with Matt Moore at QB and finished with a touchdown in each of his last three games. He finished with 982 yards on 65 catches (15.1 avg.) and seven touchdowns. Though Smith still has some excellent speed, the reality that he's entering his 10th NFL season on a run-first team with no sure thing at QB, pushes him out of the No. 1 Fantasy WR category that we've associated him with for a while. He's a good No. 2 option at this point, worth a pick between Rounds 4 and 6 in drafts this summer. His forearm injury shouldn't postpone his availability for training camp.
Wes Welker is trying to recover from a terrible knee injury suffered in a meaningless game in Week 17 last year at Houston. He had surgery to repair the ACL and MCL in his left knee in February and will try to make a full recovery by the start of the season. Whether or not he returns by Week 1 won't be known until sometime during training camp, but we do expect Welker to make a significant impact this season. He is worth drafting as no worse than a No. 3 Fantasy option with a mid-round pick. Welker has at least 111 catches and 1,165 yards in three seasons with the Patriots. Last year was a career season with 123 catches for 1,348 yards (11.0 yards per catch) and four touchdowns in just 14 games. While he hasn't scored more than eight touchdowns in a year in the past three years, he did have six games with double digits in Fantasy points in 2009. He will struggle to reach the 100-catch mark this year based on the knee injury, but he could be a great Fantasy option toward the end of the season when he gets back to 100 percent. And if you do plan on getting Welker, be sure to reserve a middle- to late-round pick for Julian Edelman, who will likely fill in for Welker at the start of the 2010 season.
Vincent Jackson is a restricted free agent this offseason, but he's expected to return to San Diego this year. He could be facing a suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy after receiving his second DUI conviction in February, but he should still remain an elite Fantasy option this year. Jackson is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He has the potential to reach 1,500 receiving yards and double digits in touchdowns, and we like him as a Top 10 Fantasy WR worth a pick toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all leagues. "I'm going to keep getting better," Jackson said this offseason in an interview with CBSSports.com. "I'm going to go out there and give you my best effort every Sunday." That's what we like to hear, and we think Jackson should continue to become a star.
Terrell Owens is a free agent this offseason and will look to land with a team where he can still play regularly. Owens spent 2009 in Buffalo, and he posted his lowest stats since 2005 when he was ultimately banished from Philadelphia. Owens finished the season with 55 catches for 829 yards (15.1 yards per catch) and five touchdowns. He also added six carries for 54 yards and a touchdown. Owens is 36 and far from the WR he was during his days with Dallas, Philadelphia and San Francisco, but if he signs with the right team he could be a serviceable No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick. He's still in tremendous shape and wasn't a distraction for the Bills despite being on a losing team with terrible QB play and having his own TV show, and he even had five games with double digits in Fantasy points. If he ends up with a quality QB and in a productive system he could end up as a sleeper, but don't reach for him too early on Draft Day. His value will ultimately be determined on what team he plays for this year.
Dwayne Bowe has the chance for a big season in 2010 now that Charlie Weis is the offensive coordinator in Kansas City. That should mean even more passing for the Chiefs, and Bowe has a lot to prove this season. He entered 2009 in the doghouse of new coach Todd Haley, but he started out the season playing well. He had four games with double digits in Fantasy points in the first seven weeks, including four touchdowns. But then Bowe was suspended for four games for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing drugs. He was quiet upon his return, and now Fantasy owners and wondering if he can still play at a high level. We expect him to -- Matt Cassel is a developing QB, and the addition of Weis will enhance the offense and Bowe's role in it. Consider Bowe a No. 2 Fantasy WR worth drafting around Round 5 or 6 depending on the size of your league. Remember, in Bowe's first two seasons he had 156 catches for 2,017 yards and 12 touchdowns and is capable of putting up outstanding stats.
Chad Ochocinco is hoping to continue to improve this season after a resurgent year in 2009. Ochocinco had his seventh 1,000-yard season in eight years in 2009, and if not for his fourth season with at least nine touchdowns, he would have still been a bit of a disappointment in Fantasy. But Ochocinco didn't focus on his off-field antics and instead played ball, finishing with 1,047 yards on 72 catches (14.5 avg.) with nine end-zone trips. That's not bad considering that the Bengals ran the ball more than threw it. Ochocinco needs a quality receiver working opposite him to regain his inflated yardage totals – otherwise expect another year like this in 2010, which isn't really a bad thing. Consider him a No. 2 Fantasy WR worth a pick between Rounds 3 and 5 this summer.
