There's very little to suggest that it would be a mistake to draft Calvin Johnson in 2011. He's the No. 1 receiver in a Lions offense that has helped him produce big stats regardless of who is quarterbacking. In his last 31 games, Johnson has scored and/or had 100 yards in 15 of them (10 of 16 in 2010), a huge percentage compared to his peers. He also has averaged 15.5 yards per catch over his career and 4.5 catches per game. A favorable schedule only helps him. Johnson is worth drafting as early as 13th overall, more than likely right after Andre Johnson gets picked.
Roddy White finally took the big step into elite Fantasy receiver territory in 2010, and should be drafted as such this summer. On a league-leading 179 targets (over 11 per game), White scored 10 touchdowns and caught 115 passes for 1,389 yards. He scored and/or had 100 receiving yards in 10 of 16 games, including each of his first five games and each of his last three (four if you include the postseason). White is a safe candidate for good yardage and touchdowns over the course of the season, though his Fantasy value is at an all-time high. Don't let the addition of Julio Jones to the Falcons' receiving corps scare you off here -- expect White to wind up going between 15th and 25th overall in all leagues this summer.
Because he missed three games in 2010 with an ankle sprain, Andre Johnson didn't come close to the receptions and yardage numbers he amassed over his last two seasons. But if you average the 45 games he's played in the last three years, the big guy is putting up 6.71 receptions per game, 97 yards per game and one touchdown every two games. Johnson can do it all as a receiver and has been catching passes from Matt Schaub exclusively for two seasons now while dealing with coverage shifted his way. With a fairly good schedule coming his way in 2011, expectations remain high for Johnson. You're not making a mistake taking him with a late first-round pick or early second-round pick this summer. He's the kind of Fantasy stud you can put in your lineup and never take out.
Greg Jennings is aiming for his fourth straight season with over 1,100 receiving yards and his fourth out of five seasons with at least nine touchdowns. After scoring 12 times last year (plus twice more in Super Bowl XLV), Jennings has lofty expectations as the go-to receiver in the Green Bay offense. But because his yardage has been reliable and his touchdown production has been almost as reliable (he scored four in 2009), he's entered the rarified air of wide receivers in Fantasy Football. With a decent schedule to boot, consider Jennings a Top 5 Fantasy option and expect him to get snagged off draft boards between Round 2 or 3 in all leagues. Once the likes of Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Roddy White are picked, Jennings will be next group of receivers to come off the board.
Hakeem Nicks enters his third season looking to prove that he's a superstar talent. He played that way last year when he had 79 catches for 1,052 yards and 11 touchdowns. Knee and toe injuries cost him three games, but he proved to be a dynamic go-to target for Eli Manning, and that should continue this year. Keeping in mind that he has 17 touchdowns through two seasons already, Nicks should be considered a No. 1 Fantasy WR coming into the year -- we can see him improving on last year's stats, especially with Steve Smith (knee) either out to start the season or not coming back as a free agent. Either way, Manning will continue to target Nicks, making him worthy of a third-round pick in all leagues.
Larry Fitzgerald is entering a contract year this season, but he said he hopes to remain in Arizona for the rest of his career. We'll see if he feels the same way if this year goes the same as 2010. When you look at Fitzgerald's stats from last year – his first without retired QB Kurt Warner or long-time teammate Anquan Boldin – they look positive with 90 catches for 1,137 yards and six touchdowns. It was his fourth year in a row with at least 90 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. But Fitzgerald didn't play like the dominant Fantasy WR most owners expected thanks to a lack of talent around him, namely at QB, and a knee injury that slowed him down at the start of the year. His knee is fine now, and his quarterback will be Kevin Kolb. That's good news, and Fantasy owners should be willing to trust Fitzgerald as an elite receiver once again. Draft him as a No. 1 Fantasy WR worth a pick as soon as the middle of Round 2.
After last year's contract fiasco and suspension to start the season, Vincent Jackson is back on track heading into the year and he knows he will be playing for the Chargers. San Diego named Jackson as its franchise player, so for one season he will get paid what he feels he deserves. It also means he will remain in a contract year, which hopefully will lead to positive results as he attempts to play big for a bigger cash reward next offseason. Jackson appeared in just five games in 2010 and finished with 14 catches for 248 yards and three touchdowns, scoring three times in Week 15 against San Francisco. He should return to being a standout Fantasy receiver capable of putting up the 127 catches for 2,265 yards and 16 touchdowns he had in 2008-09. We consider Jackson a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver with the chance to be a No. 1 option in this offense. Plan on selecting Jackson as early as Round 3 on Draft Day.
Mike Wallace's 2010 on-field success was well-documented, and now the pressure is on for him to meet or beat those stats in 2011. Wallace caught 60 passes for 1,257 yards -- an eye-popping 21.0 yards per catch average -- with 10 touchdowns during the regular season, and he tacked on another 13 grabs for 115 yards and a touchdown over three postseason games. Not only did Wallace improve in every category in 2010, but he enters 2011 as a third-year receiver and in a contract year while the Steelers have a real favorable schedule. There's a lot for Wallace to play for, and even though he's coming off of a long postseason and could slip a little bit, there's a lot to be excited about. Count him as a Top 10 Fantasy receiver likely to be snared between 20th and 30th overall in drafts.
Miles Austin is hoping to be more productive this season than he was in 2010. He finished last year with quality stats -- 69 catches for 1,041 yards and seven touchdowns and 93 rushing yards and a score -- but he only had eight games with double digits in Fantasy points. Now, part of the problem was losing quarterback Tony Romo after six games. Prior to Romo getting hurt, Austin had three 100-yard games and two touchdowns, which should be a good sign for this year with Romo back at 100 percent. But Austin also had to share targets with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, and those two aren't going away. Still, based on what Austin has done the past two years, we expect him to play at a high level. He should be considered a good No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver in all leagues worth drafting as early as Round 4 in all formats.
We heard the rumblings about Mike Williams tearing it up in Tampa Bay during training camp last season. We knew he was a low-risk, high-potential rookie receiver with good size and athleticism. But no one saw an 11-touchdown campaign coming. Williams immediately became Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman's top target and as a result led the team in receptions (65) and receiving yards (964). He also topped 10 Fantasy points in standard formats in nine of 16 games. It wouldn't be a shocker to see him take the next step in his game and produce more yardage, though it's going to be tough for him to land 11 or more touchdowns. Draft him as a rock-solid No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver as there shouldn't be much room for a drop-off, even with opposing defenses knowing that he's the top target.
Like Peyton Manning is to Fantasy quarterbacks, Reggie Wayne is as safe as they come among Fantasy receivers. Wayne posted his seventh straight 1,000-yard season in 2010, with 1,355 yards on 111 catches (12.2 avg.), adding six touchdowns. Although he finished the year with a rough patch for the second year in a row, and although the Colts have developed more receivers for Manning to spread the ball around to, Wayne is still expected to serve as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver in 2010. He's worthy of a pick starting at the end of Round 2 in the majority of leagues.
Brandon Marshall is hoping his second year with the Dolphins is better than his first. In 2010, his first season in Miami, Marshall had his worst season since his rookie year in 2006. He had 86 catches for 1,014 yards and three touchdowns on 147 targets. He was not among the top 30 Fantasy wide receivers in a standard league. Marshall had four games with double digits in Fantasy points and six games with five points or less. That's ugly, but with a year in Miami under his belt and a new offensive coordinator, Marshall should play better in 2011. That means he is still worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver, beginning as early as Round 4. His value will be determined by what Miami does at quarterback with Chad Henne not a lock to return as the starter. If the Dolphins upgrade at quarterback, then Marshall's value will rise, but we still expect him to play better than he did last season. Keep in mind he had three years in a row with at least 101 catches, 1,120 yards and six touchdowns prior to coming to Miami.
DeSean Jackson continues to prove he's among the best wide receivers in the NFL, and in 2011 he's entering a contract year. In the past two years, Jackson has 109 catches for 2,212 and 15 touchdowns. He is the No. 1 target for Michael Vick, and he routinely gets single coverage because all the other weapons in Philadelphia warrant defensive coverage. Jackson also is a threat running the ball with more than 100 yards and a touchdown in each of the past two years. And on special teams, Jackson also gets the job done on punt returns (just ask the Giants). Though injury concerns will follow the smallish receiver year after year, he should be drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy WR with a pick as early as Round 3. Hopefully the motivation of a new contract will help him play even better this season.
The good news is that Marques Colston is entering a contract year and has a pretty good track record of playing well so long as he's healthy. The bad news is that Colston had knee and wrist surgery this offseason, which also serves as an unsettling trend for him. But the bottom line is that Colston has found ways to play despite offseason operations and caught at least 70 passes for 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in four of his five NFL seasons. It's hard to overlook that. With the promise of a big pay day looming, Colston should have plenty of motivation to put up big stats in 2011. As the primary big-play receiver in the Saints' dynamic passing offense, that shouldn't be a problem. At worst consider him a quality No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver worth a pick between Round 4 and Round 6.
Dwayne Bowe finally had the type of season in 2010 that every Fantasy owner has been waiting for since he entered the NFL in 2007. Bowe had 72 catches for 1,162 yards and 15 touchdowns on 132 targets and was the No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver in standard leagues behind Denver's Brandon Lloyd with 200 points. Bowe nearly doubled his career touchdowns since he entered 2010 with 16 scores. Now, we all want to know if Bowe can do it again. While he does still have some flaws -- losing Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator and an unproven starter opposite him in rookie Jonathan Baldwin -- he still possesses an impressive skill set that helped him succeed last year. Even better, he has the motivation of a potential contract year, and that should keep Bowe playing at a high level. We consider Bowe a No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver in all leagues. It will be hard for him to match his touchdown totals from last year, but he's still capable of outstanding stats that warrant him being selected as early as Round 3 on Draft Day.
