Take everything you know about Calvin Johnson -- the amazing size, the deep speed, the great hands, the awesome receiving average, the 1,100-plus-yard, 12-plus touchdown production in each of his last three 16-game seasons -- and then factor in this: He's finally got a healthy quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Over his last 48 games he scored and/or had 100 yards in 28 of them (13 of 17 in 2010), a huge percentage compared to his peers. We know you're drafting Megatron anyway, but you can feel a little better about it knowing that Johnson should remain a star even after getting a rich pay day this offseason. He's a lock to be a Top 10 pick in all drafts this summer and could go Top 5 in PPR formats.
All Larry Fitzgerald does is make plays. It doesn't matter if he's catching passes from Kurt Warner or John Skelton, he continues to post outstanding stats. Fitzgerald struggled through a quarterback mess in 2011 with Skelton and Kevin Kolb but still managed 80 catches for 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns. It was his lowest reception total since 2006, but this was the third time he reached at least 1,400 receiving yards. Kolb and Skelton are back again competing for the job this year, and the team added rookie receiver Michael Floyd to help draw some coverage. Floyd could help in that regard and while the quarterbacks aren't exactly studs they are still certainly capable of getting Fitzgerald the ball. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, and he is worth drafting as early as Round 2.
Wes Welker showed that a contract year was good for his stats in 2011 when he had 122 catches for a career-best 1,569 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns. He might be in a contract year again in 2012. Welker was designated as New England's franchise player, but he is hopeful of getting an extension. If he reports to training camp on time, Welker should be considered a No. 1 Fantasy option in all leagues. New England loaded up at receiver this offseason with Brandon Lloyd, Donte Stallworth and Anthony Gonzalez to go with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch and Chad Ochocinco, but Welker plays a special role for the Patriots and doesn't leave the field much. Assuming he doesn't hold out of camp, Welker's safe to draft as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver with a pick in Round 2 in all formats.
Obviously, Andre Johnson has the reputation of being an elite Fantasy receiver for good reason, but there's some concern that he could be more of a liability than a stud. From 2007 to 2009, Johnson had at least eight touchdowns per season and averaged 97.4 receiving yards per game. But in his last two years that average dropped to 85.4 yards per game with 10 touchdowns in 20 starts. Obviously a huge factor for the drop-off is due to injuries, but that's the point. Johnson has missed considerable time with leg injuries over the last two years (three games in 2010 and nine in 2011) and revealed in May that he had arthroscopic knee surgery after hyperextending a knee late last season. Johnson will enter his 10th season at the age of 31, and at a time when the league is morphing into being more pass-happy than ever, younger receivers are putting up bigger stats -- especially in the touchdown department where Johnson has never had more than nine. He's got a solid schedule in front of him and he's still a No. 1 Fantasy receiver, but he needs to stay healthy to live up to the billing. That said, we're confident in his ability, and he should be drafted toward the middle of Round 2 in all formats (slightly higher in PPR leagues).
Roddy White's 2011 started slow but finished strong, and thanks to that big finish Fantasy owners are ready to bank on White again in 2012. White had 47 catches for 563 yards and three touchdowns in his first nine games before exploding in Week 11 and finishing with 53 catches for 733 yards and five scores in his final seven outings. Though there is some concern about Julio Jones cutting into his production this year, the reality is that he's been among the most targeted receivers in the NFL over the last five seasons, including the most-targeted wideout over the last two years. Expect White to wind up going in Round 2 in standard leagues and toward the end of Round 1 in PPR drafts.
Despite failing to record 1,000 yards for the first time in five seasons, Greg Jennings remains a No. 1 Fantasy wideout with the Packers. He did, however, score nine times, and would have easily hit 1,000 yards receiving last year if not for a knee injury sidelining him for the final three games of the season. Jennings remains Aaron Rodgers' top target, which means he'll receive his fair share of double-teams, but he'll also remain productive. He had at least 10 Fantasy points nine times in 13 games (standard scoring). Jennings will be taken in Round 2 in the majority of leagues.
Hakeem Nicks broke a bone in his foot in late May that required surgery and sidelined him for 12 weeks. He's expected to rejoin the Giants in mid-August, or roughly when their training camp begins to wind down. Nicks proved he was one of the best receivers in the NFL last year when he topped 75 catches and 1,000 yards for the second year in a row with 18 touchdowns in 28 games over two seasons. He also was instrumental in helping the Giants win the Super Bowl with more than 100 receiving yards in three of four playoff games. While Nicks might still be available for Week 1, the injury is a big reminder that he's not a lock to stay healthy for 16 games, something he hasn't done in three seasons. He's dealt with hamstring, knee and foot injuries throughout his career. Figure that he'll slip in Fantasy drafts because of this, but he should still be useful. Maybe you can steal him in Round 4 this summer, but count on him still being taken with a third-round pick as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy receiver.
Fantasy owners were thrilled with the production they got out of Jordy Nelson last season. Now we're all wondering if he can do it again. Despite not playing as often as other star-quality receivers in the NFL and being one of two receivers to top 150 Fantasy points and not have 100 targets, Nelson had a monster season playing opposite Greg Jennings and blowing past single coverage quite a bit. He caught 70 percent of his targets for the second year in a row, 22 percent of his catches went for touchdowns and an astounding 69 percent of his catches went for first downs or touchdowns. He was clutch for Aaron Rodgers, so we get the feeling that until Nelson does something to shake Rodgers' confidence, he's going to stay involved. Defenses will also key in on Nelson a bit more going forward, but after he rocked the Lions for 162 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17 without Rodgers or Jennings on the field, we're not quite sure it will matter unless it's consistent. With the hope that Nelson picks up even more playing time in 2012 (he was in on 699 of the Packers' 988 offensive plays last year), we like Nelson as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy receiver. He's got a shot to have some good value as a pick in Round 3 in the majority of leagues.
Victor Cruz made salsa dancing cool for Fantasy owners in 2011 when he had 82 catches for a franchise-record 1,536 yards and nine touchdowns during the regular season and then added 21 more catches for 269 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs to help the Giants win the Super Bowl. He came out of nowhere to become the Giants' leading receiver during the season, but can he do it again? We're cautiously optimistic. It's never a great idea to rely on unproven receivers with one year of success, but Cruz is in a great situation. He has an elite quarterback in Eli Manning (who loved throwing to him - 131 times in the regular season, to be exact), he will remain a starter who will learn to overcome double-teams this summer with Hakeem Nicks sidelined for most of camp, and he's in a contract year. All of those factors add up to Cruz being a solid Fantasy option worth drafting as early as Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues.
We knew A.J. Green had talent and potential, but we didn't think we'd see him show it right from the get-go. Green had at least eight Fantasy points (standard scoring) in 11 of his 15 starts and finished his rookie season with 65 grabs for 1,057 yards (16.3 avg.) and seven touchdowns. How can he improve for 2012? For starters, he could catch more of the passes Andy Dalton throws his way - he caught only 56 percent of his targets (116) last year. That should happen as Dalton and Green go through their first offseason together and get even more familiar with each other. But what remains to be seen is how the Bengals approach replacing Jerome Simpson, who has not re-signed with the team and faces a suspension for off-field issues. If the Bengals can't replace Simpson adequately, we'll see defenses attempt to take Green away with a barrage of double-teams and bracketed coverage. That could hurt his potential to be an elite receiver but wouldn't totally diminish him as a game breaker. Expect Green to perform about as well as he did last year with more potential for him to improve than regress. Draft him as a middle- to low-end No. 1 Fantasy receiver worth a pick starting in late Round 3.
Mike Wallace is on track to have another contract year after having one last season. Expected to play on his restricted tender in 2012, Wallace enters as the Steelers' bona fide No. 1 receiver even if he barely led the team in receptions last year. But the career-high 72 catches didn't go as far as Fantasy owners hoped, thanks in big part to sagging stats in his final seven games (25 catches for 325 yards and two touchdowns, both vs. Cincy). Wallace's speed and ability to catch the deep ball keep him among the top receivers in Fantasy, and his desire to get a contract like the highest-paid receivers in the league might motivate him. Wallace and the Steelers might also have to throw more than normal in 2012 given the state of their run game. Count him as a Top 10 Fantasy receiver likely to be snagged in Round 2 or 3.
We saw some big flashes of what Julio Jones could do as a rookie, and now the expectations are sky-high for him heading into 2012. A hamstring injury limited Jones early on in the year and cost him three games but once he got past that he was amazing, finishing with 373 yards and six touchdowns in his final four regular-season games. Owners will hope for big games like the ones he ended the year with for Jones, but the reality is that he'll be hit or miss as defenses choose who to cover from week to week between him and Roddy White. Don't let that discourage you, however -- it is crystal clear that Jones is a very talented receiver who should start coming into his own in 2012. Figure him to start the season as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver with potential to become a No. 1 by the end, making him worth a pick starting in Round 4.
It's a Denver reunion in Chicago now that Brandon Marshall will be reunited with his former quarterback in Jay Cutler this year following a trade by the Dolphins in March. Joining them will be former Denver coordinator Jeremy Bates, who is an assistant now with the Bears. Even though Chicago has been dubbed as the place where receivers go to die, Marshall should still post quality stats: The two were teammates in Denver in 2007-08 and Marshall had 206 catches for 2,590 yards and 13 touchdowns during that span. He also played well, but not great, with the Dolphins despite poor quarterback play, catching 167 passes for 2,228 yards and nine touchdowns in two seasons. If he plays 16 games with Cutler then Marshall should easily be a Top 15 Fantasy receiver or higher in all leagues. But there's the catch: He might be suspended for off-field behavior following an offseason incident where he allegedly hit a woman at a New York nightclub in March. Marshall's off-field problems have been numerous, and there could always be more, but that's some risk to weigh against Marshall's expected production. Expect him to get taken with a Round 3 pick in all leagues, and expect him to be solid for your team so long as he's not suspended.
Want consistency? Marques Colston's got it. Despite a few nagging injuries that have kept him off the field for all but two of his years, Colston has had over 1,000 yards receiving, at least seven touchdowns and at least 70 receptions in five of six NFL seasons (he was limited in 2008). With a career average of 72.5 receiving yards per game (he averaged 81.6 last year) and a score every 9.35 receptions, Colston remains a quality Fantasy receiver who can start as a rock-solid No. 2 option from week to week. Expect him to be a good value as a late Round 4 or early Round 5 pick.
Miles Austin has proven that when healthy he is among the best receivers in the NFL. He has 26 total touchdowns in the past three years, but he only played in 10 games last year due to various injuries including a key one to his hamstring. He should be 100 percent for this season, and he has the chance for a big year. The last time he played a full year with Tony Romo was in 2009 (remember Romo was limited in 2010 with a broken collarbone) and the two hooked up for 81 catches, 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. Austin is capable of those stats again, and he should be drafted as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues as a very solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten will continue to steal targets from Austin, but the loss of Laurent Robinson as a free agent to Jacksonville should help Austin gain the kind of target totals we hoped for last year.
