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Weigh your options. That's what I've been preaching on this blog all season long. And my Friday posts include good information to help you do that. Matchups are key in fantasy football; the defense that your player faces could benefit or hinder his stats. Below are a few good and a few bad matchups for week 11:
Good matchups:
QB Eli Manning vs. Atlanta - Injuries have ravaged the Falcons' defensive backfield, and opposing offenses have wasted no time pouncing on Atlanta's biggest weakness. Four quarterbacks have thrown at least two touchdowns against the Falcons in the last five weeks, with three of them topping the 300-yard plateau. Manning should have little trouble picking apart the secondary, especially coming off an extra week of preparation and rest for his sore foot. He's thrown for at least one touchdown in every game this year.
RB Kevin Smith vs. Cleveland - It takes a slight leap of faith to stand behind a guy who hasn't topped 70 yards rushing or scored a touchdown since Week 4, but a matchup with Cleveland has the power to cure all woes. The Browns surrender nearly 166 yards per game on the ground (3rd most in the NFL) and have forked over 13 rushing scores in nine games. If Smith is ever going to break out of his sophomore slump, this could be the week.
TE Greg Olsen vs. Philadelphia - The Windy City airwaves are still buzzing about quarterback Jay Cutler's five-interception letdown against the 49ers last Thursday night, but the steady play of Greg Olsen tends to get lost in the shuffle. He's quietly been one of the best tight ends to own in fantasy play this year, scoring six touchdowns and rebounding from a slow start to average over 50 yards per game over his last five. This week he gets the Eagles, who have consistently demonstrated an inability to cover opposing tight ends. Tight ends have gashed Philly for 552 yards and five touchdowns in the last six weeks alone.
Bad matchups:
QB Matt Cassel vs. Pittsburgh - Earlier this year, Cassel could be plugged into fantasy lineups as an adequate bye-week replacement or even low-end starter in 14-team leagues. Those days have long disappeared, as Cassel is averaging fewer than 200 yards and a touchdown over his last four games. Now he'll be without his best receiver (Dwayne Bowe, four-game suspension) for a matchup against one of the most feared defenses in the league. It's hard to imagine Cassel and his ragtag group of receivers finding any success against the Steelers on Sunday, even if Pittsburgh is without Troy Polamalu. Just one of the Chiefs' top-four receivers this week was even on the team's roster in Week 1.
RB Justin Forsett at Minnesota - Forsett was one of the hottest waiver-wire pickups across the country this week for a reason: he rushed for 123 yards on just 17 carries against the Cardinals and could be Seattle's primary back for the next several games. It might be tempting to show off your shiny new toy if you were lucky enough to snag him, but you may be disappointed by his Week 11 results. Minnesota is just too stout against the run, allowing fewer than 95 yards per game, the sixth-best average in the NFL. Most impressively, the Vikings have allowed just one opposing running back to score a touchdown all season (Ray Rice back in Week 6).
WR Miles Austin vs. Washington - Ask 10 of your friends, even football-savvy ones, which team owns the best pass defense in the NFL and you'll probably receive 10 wrong answers. The 3-6 Redskins don't generate a lot of attention, but they've consistently stymied opposing passing attacks all season, allowing a measly 163 yards per game. Roddy White (three catches for 27 yards), Carolina's Steve Smith (five for 65) and Calvin Johnson (five for 49) have all posted meager numbers when up against Washington's pass D. There are some cracks to be found, as Brandon Marshall did last week, but Austin struggled to get open against the Packers last week and could run into similar troubles on Sunday.
We're into week 11 already, wow. I can't believe how fast this season is flying by. Only four weeks left until the playoffs begin, so it's crunch time. If you're in the top four in your league, maintain. If you're not, you need to get working. And, for most leagues, Friday is the trade deadline. Also remember that there's a game tomorrow night so check to make sure your roster is set.
As you've probably already realized, players that go the distance are the players that are shining right now. Longevity is starting to really pay off. The same is true for your tires, longevity is vital. I learned last week while in Greenville, S.C. that the Michelin LTX M/S2 tire lasts up to 20,000 miles LONGER than the competition - that's incredible.
Below are this week's player downgrades and upgrades:
Upgrades:
Perhaps complaining about touches does really help a star player, take for example wide receiver Roy Williams, who complained this season about a lack of touches and poor chemistry between himself and Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. Suddenly, Williams has caught 10 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown in his last two games after only 14 catches for 249 yards and two touchdowns in his first six games. Williams is getting more passes thrown his way now that he is fully healthy, his grievances have been heard and defenses have figured out how to slow Miles Austin, making Williams an upgrade who should continue to post better numbers the rest of the season.
After really struggling his first six games this season with turnovers and a general lack of productivity, Jake Delhomme is finally starting to play better. Bolstered by the team's strong running game, Delhomme completed 15-of-24 passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns in the Panthers' Week 10 win over the Falcons. He has cut his turnovers the last three games while losing one fumble and posting a 3:0 TD:INT ratio. Delhomme is by no means a No. 1 quarterback at this point but is starting to play at least well enough to be a No. 2 quarterback for depth purposes after playing himself out of any fantasy consideration his first six games this year.
It's no coincidence that as Jake Delhomme's play has improved recently, Steve Smith has seen an uptick in his productivity. After one of the worst games of his career in which he only caught one pass for four yards in Week 6, Smith has started to come around. Smith has caught 17 passes for 253 yards and all three of his touchdowns this season in his last four games. While he is still not getting as much yardage as in years past, owners will gladly take the increase in touchdowns and the increase in yardage totals the last four weeks. As long as the team can keep running the ball effectively and Delhomme can keep up his improved play, Smith should reclaim his weekly starting receiver status.
Downgrades:
His numbers are not that far off from his solid rookie season, but Kevin Smith is not living up to expectations in his second year. Many expected Smith to be a 1,000-yard running back with possibly 10-plus touchdowns but neither of those projections seems likely for Smith this season. Smith has especially fallen off this year since Week 4, his last week with a touchdown. He only has one 100-yard rushing game this season and his yards-per carry (4.1 in 2008 vs. 3.4 in 2009) and touchdown (eight in 2008 vs. only five now projected for 2009) paces are down from his rookie season. The fact that Lions rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford has been erratic and that the defense is not very good will continue to negatively impact Smith's numbers this year.
After improving in each of his first three seasons, Greg Jennings is in danger of taking a big step back this season if his current pace of production does not increase. Jennings, who is coming off a 1,292-yard, nine-touchdown 2008 season that was preceded by a 920-yard, 12-touchdown 2007 season only has 543 yards and two touchdowns through his first nine games this season, putting him on pace for only 965 yards and four touchdowns for the full year. While Jennings has been fighting some nagging injuries this season, a big reason for his drop off can be attributed to the Packers' pass-blocking struggles in 2009, which have hampered quarterback Aaron Rodgers' ability to get the ball deep to Jennings.
After missing the first three games of the season, Marshawn Lynch has just not been able to get on track like his previous two 1,000-yard seasons. Even though he has regained the Bills' starting running back job from Fred Jackson, Lynch is still ceding a fair amount of carries to Jackson per game and is frankly running less effectively than Jackson - Jackson averages 4.1 yards per carry compared to 3.2 yards per carry for Lynch. It was understandable that Lynch would show some rust for a while this season, but he is still not producing. It does not help either that the Bills have gotten relatively poor play from the quarterback position this season. Unless things drastically change, Lynch will come nowhere near 1,000-plus yards with 7-plus touchdowns in 2009 and is a fantasy backup at best at this point.
What a game last night! I certainly hope you didn't miss the Colts/Patriots matchup…that's football at its finest. There was a lot of action that went on this week that you'll want to take note of as you prepare for week 11. I've had to recently do some adjusting on my roster to keep me competitive and give me a chance to win my league. Here's a review of week 10.
TOP PERFORMERS
Chris Johnson finished in the top-three in overall scoring for the third straight week, gashing the Bills' defense on the ground (26 carries, 132 rushing yards, two touchdowns) and in the air (nine receptions, 100 receiving yards). He is averaging a ridiculous 121.2 yards per game, easily first in the league, and is on pace to finish with 1,939 yards. Chances are he'll occupy this space once again next week as he goes up against the Texans rush defense, that allows 4.7 yards per rush (tied for fourth-most).
Sunday night's Colts/Pats thriller boasted four of the week's top-seven scorers with a quarterback and receiver from each team. Peyton Manning threw for 327 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions (good for 25 fantasy points), only to be matched by Tom Brady's 375 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Reggie Wayne and Randy Moss both went for 125-plus receiving yards and two scores, with Moss getting 16 targets (second most on the week).
Maurice Jones-Drew could have finished top-three in scoring this week but chose to be a team player instead, taking a knee at the one-yard line to kill clock and allow the Jaguars to kick the game-winning field goal. At least MJD apologized though: "Sorry to my fantasy owners," said Jones-Drew.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES
Beanie Wells turned in the best performance of his young career in Sunday's win against the Seahawks, carrying the ball 16 times for 85 yards and two touchdowns. He'll still have to compete for carries with Tim Hightower, but he's still at least a viable flex option and will be especially useful down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs, as the Cardinals get Detroit and St. Louis in Weeks 15 and 16.
Justin Forsett was fantastic in place of Julius Jones (rib, lung), totaling 149 yards (123 rushing, 26 receiving) and a touchdown. He was involved in both the running game (17 carries) and the passing game (eight targets) so there shouldn't be a shortage of opportunities with a full workload. It appears he'll get just that with the early prognosis on Jones being that he'll be out a few weeks.
INJURY RUNDOWN
Ronnie Brown suffered an ankle injury in the third quarter of Sunday's game against the Bucs, and his status is in serious doubt for the Dolphins' Week 11 game against the Panthers. It's believed to be a severe ankle sprain, and to make matters worse, he'll only have three days to recover with the team on a short week. Ricky Williams will get the start if Brown is unable to go.
Michael Turner will undergo an MRI on Monday, but early speculation is that he suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday's loss to the Panthers. Owners should prepare to weather the storm for the week ahead. Jason Snelling is the add here and is at least a necessary handcuff for Turner owners.
Brian Westbrook suffered his second concussion in two games, and his availability for the rest of the season is in question at this point. He's expected to miss several weeks at minimum, and a late-season return appears to be the best-case scenario. It's probably a good idea to start looking for an alternative option. Chances are that LeSean McCoy is already owned in your league, but if he is somehow available then pick him up immediately.
Cedric Benson should be good to go for the Bengals' Week 11 matchup after suffering a hip flexor injury in Sunday's game. This is encouraging news for Benson owners especially considering he gets the Raiders defense next week.
What a game last night, and what a way to start week 10! The 49ers' red zone defense was fantastic...I love good defense like that. And there should be a lot of good defensive games this week, which is why you should always take a look at the defense your players will be facing. Here are a few good matchups for week 10 and a few matchups that aren't so good.
Good Matchups:
QB Joe Flacco at Cleveland – From a fantasy perspective, Flacco has been quiet the past two weeks, posting just one touchdown, two interceptions and no 200-yard games. He'll start making noise on Sunday against the team he shredded for 342 yards and a score back in Week 3. The Browns don't seem to be any better now than they were earlier this season, as every week a different quarterback seems to sit back and fire away at the Cleveland secondary. Since Flacco's performance, the Browns surrendered 230 yards and two scores to Carson Palmer, 417 and two to Ben Roethlisberger, and 246 and three to Aaron Rodgers.
RB Ricky Williams vs. Tampa Bay – Somebody must have forgotten to tell Ricky Williams that running backs are supposed to break down once they have 30 candles on their birthday cake. At the ripe age of 32, Williams has vastly exceeded expectations, vaulting himself into the top 15 at his position in many scoring systems. This week he gets to run against Tampa's 30th-ranked run defense, a unit that's allowed seven different backs to rush for more than 90 yards this season. The Buccaneers can expect to see a heavy dose of both Williams and Ronnie Brown all afternoon.
WR Braylon Edwards vs. Jacksonville - Game planning for the Jaguars is like ordering at your favorite restaurant – everything on the menu looks so inviting that it's hard to make a decision. Do you stick to the ground against a Jags defense giving up 120 rushing yards per game or do you air it out against a 25th-ranked pass defense that's surrendered 13 touchdowns to wide receivers this season? The Jets should find success using both strategies, with Edwards one of the many beneficiaries. He has two touchdowns in four games as a Jet and may build on that number Sunday.
Bad matchups:
QB David Garrard at New York Jets – Garrard has quietly put together a few very strong fantasy weeks, but his production tends to fluctuate wildly from game to game, and this isn't a week to roll the dice. He locks horns with an ornery Jets defense that has allowed only one opposing quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns and ranks second in the league in passing yardage allowed. Throw in the fact that Garrard has yet to throw a touchdown on the road this season and you have all the reasons you need to look for a better Week 10 option.
RB Julius Jones at Arizona – Don't let Jones' 114 total yards and a touchdown against Detroit last week fool you. Just 36 of those yards came on the ground despite a respectable 16 attempts, which translates to an abysmal 2.3 per carry average. If you find that number concerning, take a look at Jones' stat line from the first meeting with the Cardinals this year: five carries for a total of five yards. As a team, the Seahawks only managed to scratch out 14 yards in that 27-3 drubbing. Arizona's run defense has shown some cracks recently, but don't expect Jones to exploit them.
WR Dwayne Bowe at Oakland – Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the league's most suffocating cornerbacks, and his efforts have helped limit Bowe to just one touchdown in five career games against Oakland. The only time Bowe has found the end zone was in the first meeting between the teams this season, which happened to occur when Asomugha was out of the game briefly while tending to an injury. Apart from that catch, he was held to just 27 yards and could be in for a similarly frustrating outing on Sunday.
I just returned home last night after a fantastic day of driving on Michelin's test track! I spent the day with a group of media testing the Michelin LTX M/S2 tire against its competitors. One of my favorite exercises took place on the wet track also known as "T3." I felt much more in control and confident driving on the LTX M/S2 tire. Even in the pouring rain the LTX M/S2 tire was far superior in handling and managed to stop up to 7-feet shorter than the competition. I used to think stopping and handling were due to the vehicle but I now realize the right set of tires make a huge difference as well.
The flight home gave me the opportunity to think about this week's games and what's left of the fantasy football season. It's amazing to think that we're more than half way through the fantasy football season. Each game from here on out is critical. Over the next few weeks, a win or loss could determine whether or not you make the playoffs. Make sure you continue monitoring the wire for available players that could help your team advance to the playoffs and give you a shot at winning the championship.
Below are my thoughts on some upgrades and downgrades to take note of as you weigh your options for the week. Keep in mind that this is the last week of BYEs for the season.
Upgrades:
Much was expected of Nate Burleson following his 1,000-yard, 9-touchdown season in 2004, until this year he has largely disappointed. The 2009 season so far for Burleson has seen him get back to his 2004 form as he has 45 catches for 562 yards and three touchdowns through his first eight games. Burleson is now performing no worse than a flex-player and could be even worthy of No. 2 wide receiver status some weeks depending on the matchup.
After a slow start to the season, DeAngelo Williams has really picked up his play recently and is looking like the elite running back he was last season again. Without a 100-yard game and only two touchdowns in his first four games this season, Williams has rushed for at least 100 yards in three of his last four games and has five touchdowns over that same span. Williams is a must-start No. 1 running back no matter the matchup, especially since the Panthers need to lean heavily on the run to have any real shot of winning games.
After several seasons of not living up to his vast potential, Cedric Benson has burst upon the scene as an elite running back in 2009. Benson already has more yards this season (837) through eight games than he had in any of his previous four full seasons and has already matched his career high in touchdowns with six. Benson will continue to rack up big numbers for the Bengals as long as he stays healthy as the team relies heavily on his run production, and he is motivated to prove the Bears were wrong to release him after the 2007 season.
Downgrades:
Although the season is only half over, Calvin Johnson is having a very disappointing year thus far as he simply is not justifying his early-round draft status. Johnson is way off his 1,300-yard 12-touchdown pace of last season, it's not even close as he only has 24 catches for 252 yards and one touchdown through his first six games played this season. Johnson has battled a knee injury that caused him to miss all of two games and most of a third game. In addition, when he has been healthy, Johnson and rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford have had trouble getting on the same page as evidenced by Johnson's 2-catch 27-yard performance in a 32-20 Week 9 loss to the Seahawks. Hopefully Johnson can turn around his season, but right now he is a significant downgrade.
Between his general unhappiness with his team as well as suffering through a nagging ankle injury, Anquan Boldin is in danger of having one of his worst seasons in his career this year. With 35 catches for 404 yards and only one touchdown through seven played this season, Boldin is well off his 1,000-yard, 11-touchdown pace of last season (in only 12 games played). Boldin did not play Week 9 and the team didn't miss him much as Steve Breaston filled in with a solid five-catch, 66-yard, one-touchdown effort in the Cardinals' 41-21 thrashing of the Bears. Boldin will be back Week 10, but you never know when his ankle or poor attitude may hurt his production, which makes him a downgrade.
With the emergence of career-backup Ryan Moats, and talk of Larry Johnson signing, downgrade Steve Slaton. Slaton's rushing numbers, (359 yards, three touchdowns, 3.1 yards per carry) are way off this season as compared to his banner rookie year of 2008 that saw him rush for 1,200-plus yards and nine touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry. Slaton is actually performing a bit better so far this season in terms of his receiving numbers as compared to his 2008 pace, but his fumbling problems (seven fumbles, five lost) through nine games have drastically cut his playing time the last two weeks, which means he cannot be relied upon as even a solid flex-player until he can get more consistent playing time.
Another exciting weekend of football is in the books and there were some great performances to show for it! The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally got their first win of the season as they pulled off a major upset against the Green Bay Packers, the Tennessee Titans are now 2-0 under Vince Young as the starting QB, and both the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints remain undefeated. Tonight's Steelers/Broncos game should be a fitting end to a fantastic weekend of action.
I'm headed to Greenville, SC, today – home of Michelin – to take part in some LTX M/S2 tire testing exercises. I'm excited to experience first-hand how this legendary tire dominates its competition (similar to how the 49ers teams I played on dominated our opponents).
I'll provide an update on my trip in Wednesday's post but for now here's a look back on Week 9.
TOP PERFORMERS
Another week, another victimized defense. Chris Johnson followed his 35-point effort in Week 8 with a 27-point performance in Week 9, totaling 135 yards and two touchdowns against a stout 49ers run defense. What's scary is that he had an 81-yard touchdown reversed on replay as he stepped out of bounds after bursting through a hole and eluding a tackler. Johnson should continue his tear next week against the Bills, who have allowed a league-high 173.6 rushing yards per game (5.1 yards per carry).
BOUNCEBACK PERFORMANCES
Things couldn't have gone any better for Kurt Warner this week considering the circumstances – fresh off a six-turnover performance in Week 8 and having to compensate for the loss of receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle). Warner flipped the script on his five-interception game against the Panthers to throw for five touchdowns and 261 yards in a 41-21 victory at Soldier Field. It was his best statistical outing of the season and also Larry Fitzgerald's, who was on the receiving end of two of those touchdown passes. Fitzgerald also hauled in nine receptions for 123 yards. Things will continue to look up for the Cardinals offense over the next three weeks as they take on Seattle, St. Louis and Tennessee.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES
Josh Freeman was an absolute killer in his first NFL start. He killed survivor pools, teasers and most notably the Packers defense late in the game. He led the Bucs offense on a 72-yard drive late in the fourth quarter that put them on top 31-28, capped off by a seven-yard touchdown pass to Sammie Stroughter. He finished the day as the third-highest scorer among quarterbacks, totaling 205 yards and three touchdowns. He'll face the Dolphins and Saints in Weeks 10 and 11, so temper your expectations moving forward.
Tight end Greg Olsen broke through with his first multi-touchdown game of the season, doubling his season total with three touchdown receptions in the Bears' loss to the Cardinals. Before this week's performance Olsen had been a disappointment as he entered the 2009 as a high-end option at the position. This outburst redeems his overall numbers, but it's worth noting the Cardinals have allowed big numbers to several tight ends this season, so don't expect anything close to this on a regular basis.
INJURY RUNDOWN
Coach Jim Zorn will be cautious with Clinton Portis who was knocked out when he suffered a concussion during Sunday's game. Ladell Betts rushed for 70 yards and a touchdown in Portis' place and is likely to start in Week 10. Betts is a marginal start at best next week, as the Redskins go up against a Broncos run defense that has allowed just 3.4 yards per carry through seven games.
Below is a list of players that I think have favorable matchups and some that don't have particularly appealing matchups. To win your league it's important to analyze this type of information, weigh your options and make the best decision for your team.
Good matchups:
QB Alex Smith vs. Tennessee -- In one and a half games since taking over for an ineffective Shaun Hill, Smith has thrown for 404 yards and four touchdowns, good for a 95.0 passer rating. Unlike earlier in his career when he was overwhelmed by the pressure of being the first overall pick, Smith is taking what the defense is giving him, targeting tight end Vernon Davis over the middle and the newly signed Michael Crabtree on the outside. He faces the 32nd-ranked Titans pass defense on Sunday, a unit that stifled David Garrard last week but has been anemic for most of the season, allowing a league-high 19 passing scores.
RB Ryan Grant at Tampa Bay -- The Packers have strayed away from the run at times this season, giving Grant an average of just 11.7 carries per game in the team's three losses. That number should be in the mid-20s on Sunday against Tampa Bay, a team that has handed over more than 150 rushing yards per game over its last three contests. The Bucs will don their "Creamsicle"-colored throwbacks for this matchup - appropriate, since right now the run defense is playing like the winless '76 team that wore the same jerseys.
TE Fred Davis at Atlanta -- After replacing an injured Chris Cooley midway through a Week 7 game against the Eagles, Davis shredded the Philly defense for 78 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions. He'll likely remain the starter as long as Cooley is out (expected to be about four weeks) and may be a frequent target for quarterback Jason Campbell during that span. Atlanta's struggling secondary has allowed a tight end to top 50 yards receiving in four consecutive weeks.
Bad matchups:
QB Ben Roethlisberger at Denver -- Make no mistake, Roethlisberger has been outstanding this season, completing over 70 percent of his passes for 2,062 yards and 11 touchdowns in just seven games. But plenty of accomplished passers have run into the Broncos' pass defense this season, and plenty of accomplished passers have struggled. Denver boasts a fearsome pass rush, the league's eighth-ranked pass defense, and has allowed just four aerial scores all year. Even in a lopsided loss last Sunday, the Broncos held Joe Flacco to 175 yards and a touchdown. Don't expect Big Ben to unleash another 300-yard game this week.
RB Ricky Williams at New England -- Ronnie Brown and Williams combine to form arguably the league's most dominant running back duo, guiding the Dolphins to 153.4 rushing yards per game. Williams has been especially adept at finding the end zone (five scores in his last five games), but the Patriots thrive on holding opposing rushers out of the painted area. New England has allowed just one ground score all year, all the way back in Week 3 against the Falcons.
WR Hakeem Nicks vs. San Diego -- Since Week 1, only one wide receiver has surpassed 66 yards receiving against the Chargers, and only four have managed to score against the Bolts all year. It's not an easy unit to throw against, and Nicks' targets may decrease from a week ago if Mario Manningham is able to return from a shoulder injury. Don't expect much production from the rookie in Week 9.
One other note, I'll be heading up to Michelin's test track in South Carolina on Monday. They've invited me to come out and test the new LTX M/S2 tire on the track and in various exercises. I'm excited about it and will let you know how it goes.
The ebb and flow of players' status continues to change all season long. Now eight weeks into the season, I'm starting to see some player patterns…some for the positive and others not so much. Below are a few player upgrades and downgrades to take note. Let me also say, just because I list somebody as a downgrade doesn't necessarily mean you shouldn't start them. Kurt Warner, for example, is a good fantasy quarterback, and a definite must-start in most leagues. However, his numbers combined with some other factors take him from excellent to good.
Upgrades:
Brett Favre is making a strong case to be considered among the top fantasy (and real life) quarterbacks in the NFL with the numbers he is putting up this season. Through the first eight weeks this season, Favre has thrown 16 touchdown passes, which ties him with Drew Brees and Matt Schaub for most in the NFL. Favre stuck it to his old team the Packers in Week 8 as he threw for a season-high four touchdowns on only 28 pass attempts. The Vikings offense is clicking on all cylinders with Favre and, of course, super-stud running back Adrian Peterson. As a result, the team will continue to score a lot of points, which should keep Favre out of desperate situations where he forces throws, thus limiting his interceptions (only three so far this season).
It was only one game, and it wasn't particularly flashy, but Vince Young is back as the starting quarterback for the Titans, and given his solid Week 8 performance, he is probably going to keep the job for a while. Helped by a running game that piled up 305 yards (with 30 contributed by Young himself) , Young completed 15-of-18 passes for 115 yards and one touchdown to lead the Titans to their first win of the season over the Jaguars. Young is by default an upgrade as he has never proven to be a fantasy stalwart per se, but he nevertheless is a starting NFL quarterback once again.
Big-play wide receivers such as DeSean Jackson can make fantasy owners nervous given the lack of consistent touches but then again, Jackson is so explosive that it does not matter. Even though Jackson is only on pace for 55 catches this season, he makes up for it some by being the team's punt returner and his frequent use in reverses. Jackson has become a No.1-level fantasy wide receiver because he makes a big play for a lot of yards and/or a touchdown nearly every week.
Downgrades:
Although he is on pace for another 4,000-yard passing season, and is completing 65 percent of his pass attempts, Kurt Warner is showing some signs of slippage from elite fantasy status. Warner is on pace for 25 touchdowns (he threw 30 last season) but also 25 interceptions (only 14 all last season). Warner is coming off his worst game in quite some time as threw five interceptions Week 8 versus the Panthers at home. This follows a game in which Warner only threw for 231 yards and one touchdown versus the Giants in Week 7. Warner will still have a solid fantasy season, but injury prone wide receivers, suspect offensive line and the lack of a decent running game are slowly conspiring to downgrade him from great to very good.
Big things were expected from Brandon Jacobs this season, but it's looking more and more like he will be a disappointment to most fantasy owners. Although on pace for an 1,100-yard season, Jacobs has really fallen off in touchdowns (on pace for four this season vs. 15 last season) and yards-per-carry (3.9 in 2009 vs 5 YPC in both 2008 and 2007) so far in 2009. Even if Jacobs can avoid the injury bug this season, which has been a bit of a problem in seasons past, the emergence of Ahmed Bradshaw as perhaps a better option at running back combined with Eli Manning's up-and-down play are not making him worthy of his high draft status.
He has a lot of hype around him, but Reggie Bush is becoming less of an impact football player these days. Yes, Bush has managed to score a touchdown in each of his past two games, but he is on pace this year for the fewest rushing attempts and receptions in his career over a full season. The strong play of fellow running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, combined with the resurgence of Jeremy Shockey, has contributed to a continual decrease in his workload this season. At this point it is not safe to start Bush in most formats until he can work himself more in to the Saints plans again somehow.
Well we're half way through the season now…how are things going for everybody? By now, you should have a feel for your team and even the league you're in. It's important to keep informed about what's going on in the NFL outside of your team. Here are my thoughts on week 8.
TOP PERFORMERS
It has been just six weeks since the last time Chris Johnson was listed here when he torched the Texans for 284 all-purpose yards and three total touchdowns. While he wasn't able to replicate his ridiculous 40-point performance in the Titans' Week 8 matchup against the Jaguars, he came awfully close. Johnson rushed for a franchise-record 228 rushing yards and two scores. He'll face a pretty production-friendly schedule in the second half that includes Buffalo (174.1 rushing yards allowed per-game), St. Louis (134.8), and San Diego (132.1), so his chances for another 30-plus point outburst are fairly high.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES
After fumbling the ball for the seventh time this season (five of which have been recovered by opposing defenses), Steve Slaton was benched in favor of Ryan Moats. Moats capitalized on the opportunity and cushy matchup, delivering 151 total yards and three scores. It's unclear (and probably unlikely) that Moats will unseat Slaton as the starter, but he should have a significant role in the offense moving forward and is a solid pickup this week, especially as a handcuff for Slaton owners.
SELL HIGH
LaDainian Tomlinson and Matt Forte came up big in Week 8, each finding the end zone twice - LT for 56 rushing yards and Forte for 121 total yards. It's hard to buy either of these guys for the long haul though, and now appears to be the perfect opportunity to cash in and sell high. A 3.1 yard-per-carry average against the Raiders defense isn't exactly promising for LT's value, and he'll face three tough run defenses in the upcoming weeks - the Giants, Eagles and Broncos. Forte just hasn't delivered anywhere near the first-round impact that his owners were expecting, and he's got a brutal schedule during the fantasy playoffs (Baltimore and Minnesota).
INJURY WATCH
Owen Daniels will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. A big disappointment all around here, as Daniels was the top-rated tight end heading into this week with 40 catches for a total of 519 yards and five touchdowns. James Casey and Joel Dreessen will fill-in for Daniels, but neither will be viable for Daniels owners reeling from the injury. Dustin Keller (13 targets, 8 receptions, 76 yards, one touchdown) and Kevin Boss (9 targets, 3 receptions, 70 yards, one touchdown) are both solid replacement candidates coming off strong performances. Deeper league owners should give Spencer Havner a look as he has three touchdowns in his last two games and will continue to have sneaky value with Jermichael Finley (knee) sidelined.
Anquan Boldin could miss the Cardinals' Week 9 game against the Bears after aggravating his right ankle injury on Sunday. Boldin left the game in the third quarter and did not return. He has been battling injuries all season, and it makes more sense for him to take the week off to recuperate and get healthy than to push it and risk hurting that ankle even more. Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston would see boosts in value if Boldin were to miss any time.
Aaron Rodgers was seen limping severely after Sunday's loss against the Vikings. He's downplaying the severity of the injury, but it's a concern given the foot injury he's dealt with the past few weeks. Rodgers took a beating at the hands of the Vikings defense as he found himself under constant pressure and was sacked six times.
There are some tough matchups this week, should be a good weekend of football. As I do every week, I went through the schedule and identified a few players who have favorable matchups and also a few guys who are going up against some tough defensive opponents. Weigh your options and adjust your rosters accordingly.
Another factor to keep in mind is weather. October is gone and a few cities will welcome in November with rain. Baltimore (Ravens), East Rutherford (Jets) and Philadelphia (Eagles) are all expecting rain for Sunday. Remember, the Michelin LTX M/S2 tire is by far the leading tire in its category and a long-time consumer favorite and offers an exceptional combination of performances for light-trucks and SUVs. If you are heading to the game, make sure your tires are ready for bad weather. The Michelin LTX M/S2 tire stops 7 feet shorter in wet weather than the competition. Go to www.michelinman.com/ltxms2-tire to learn more.
Good matchups:
QB Jay Cutler vs. Cleveland - If you're in a league that strongly penalizes for interceptions, Cutler's propensity to turn the ball over has been problematic. He's tossed five passes at the wrong colored jersey in the last two games, including three in a blowout loss to Cincinnati last week. Thankfully for Cutler, the Browns have picked off just three passes all year and are giving up passing yardage like it's Halloween candy. Aaron Rodgers threw for 246 yards and three scores in Cleveland last week and Ben Roethlisberger hung 417 yards and two touchdowns on the Browns the week before. Cutler has a chance to inflict similar damage.
RB Kevin Smith vs. St. Louis - Smith has gone over 100 yards rushing just once this season, but has a golden opportunity to duplicate that effort on Sunday against the hapless Rams. St. Louis enters the game ranked 27th in rushing defense, coughing up over 135 yards per game on the ground. Eight different running backs have posted double-digit fantasy points against the Rams this year.
WR Torry Holt at Tennessee - It's difficult to describe just how bad the Titans' pass defense has been this year. Fortunately, the stats do all the talking. Tennessee is allowing 311 passing yards per game (last in the NFL) and has surrendered 19 touchdowns through the air (also last). When these teams tangled earlier this season, Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard threw for 323 yards and three scores. Holt was quiet on that day, grabbing just three receptions for 42 yards, but odds are he'll be more involved on Sunday if it turns into another banner day for the Jags' passing attack. In the two games since their last meeting, Holt has posted receiving totals of 95 and 101 yards.
Bad matchups:
QB Matt Ryan at New Orleans - Ryan has been a borderline No. 1 fantasy quarterback in 2009, but he faces a stern test in New Orleans on Monday night. The Superdome will be rocking for this important NFC South duel, and the Saints' secondary is playing as well as any unit in the league right now. New Orleans hounded Chad Henne into two interceptions and no touchdowns last week and limited Eli Manning to 178 yards and one touchdown the previous game. They're outstanding at jumping into passing lanes and could make it a long day for the young Ryan.
RB Knowshon Moreno at Baltimore - Correll Buckhalter's return to the Denver backfield has put a dent into Moreno's fantasy value, as the rookie rushed for just 44 yards and was outgained by Buckhalter in Denver's last game. The Broncos seem committed to continuing the timeshare between the two, causing a fantasy headache for both Moreno and Buckhalter owners. Both could struggle this week, however, against a Baltimore defensive front that ranks seventh in the league against the run. The Ravens have shown some cracks over the last two weeks, but they're still one of the league's top run-stopping groups.
WR Michael Crabtree at Indianapolis - Crabtree certainly didn't look like a rookie receiver coming off a long holdout in his NFL debut last weekend. He appeared comfortable, ran crisp routes and finished with five receptions for 56 yards. But every rookie eventually has a welcome-to-the-NFL moment, and Crabtree's could be coming Sunday against the Colts. Only one opposing wide receiver has scored a touchdown on Indy all year, and San Francisco will be transitioning in a new quarterback (Alex Smith).
I'm seeing a lot of movement on the depth charts this week, including my former team the San Francisco 49ers. We're still in the midst of BYE weeks so see if you can take advantage of some worthy free agents that might be available in your league. Below are some upgrades and downgrades to help you weigh your roster options.
Upgrades:
After missing much of the last two seasons due to injuries and ineffective play, former No. 1 overall draft pick Alex Smith is back as the 49ers starting quarterback. Smith came off the bench in the 49ers' 24-21 Week 7 loss to the Texans and completed 15-of-22 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Smith has some decent weapons, so there is some potential for him to post respectable numbers. Smith has been a disappointment for most of his career but he is back to being a starter, which makes him an upgrade.
After finally ending his long holdout, rookie wide receiver Michael Crabtree had a solid pro debut as he caught five passes for 56 yards in the 49ers' 24-21 Week 7 loss to the Texans. Crabtree started the game and really did not show much rust considering his long layoff. Crabtree should continue to receive a lot of targets as he has quickly emerged as one of the team's top receiving threats.
Owen Daniels has certainly had a solid career up to this season but he is now becoming an elite fantasy tight end. Daniels is coming off a monster seven-catch, 163-yard game in the Texans' 24-21 Week 7 victory over the 49ers. Daniels is on pace for his first 1,000-yard receiving season and has already matched his career-high in touchdown catches with five. Daniels has become the clear No.2 option behind Andre Johnson in the Texans' explosive pass offense, so expect his strong play to continue.
Downgrades:
After a very impressive start, Eli Manning has come back to earth the last two weeks. Manning has thrown four interceptions in his last two games and has completed less than 50 percent of his passes over that stretch as well. Although it's not obvious, one has to wonder if Manning's lingering foot injury is negatively affecting his play. Then again, Manning has shown some bad habits the last two weeks that have occasionally plagued him in his career. He should still have a good season, but just know that Manning is not going to be on fire every game like he was prior to the last two weeks.
He is still a factor in the Giants passing game, but Mario Manningham has certainly slowed down since his 10-catch, 150-yard explosion in Week 2. A big factor in Manningham's drop in production is the rise of rookie wide receiver Hakim Nicks who has taken away targets from Manningham. Manningham is still capable of putting up a decent game, but he is not reliable enough at this point to be anything more than a bye-week fill-in/flex-type player in most leagues.
After a surprisingly strong 2008 season, along with some solid play to start the 2009 season, Shaun Hill has now lost the 49ers' starting quarterback job to former starter Alex Smith. Hill had a very ineffective game Week 5 in the team's 45-10 loss to the Falcons and then followed that with a lackluster start to Week 7's 24-21 loss to the Texans. Hill wound up being benched during the game versus the Texans as Smith came in to almost rally the 49ers to victory with three touchdown passes. Hill goes now from a roster-worthy backup fantasy quarterback to a real-life backup, which means he is a major downgrade and is not worth owning at this point.
Here's a review of week 7 in the NFL. There were a few top performers, breakthrough performances and some injuries to take note.
TOP PERFORMERS
You can't talk about the improved play of Tony Romo over the past two games without mentioning the development of Miles Austin, because the two have really gone hand-in-hand. Step aside Roy Williams, because the Cowboys have a new No. 1 receiver. Austin came in as the highest-scoring wideout for the second consecutive week, finishing with 171 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's win against the Falcons. He's gone for a combined 421 yards and four touchdowns in his past two games.
The entire Bengals offensive unit put on a clinic against the Bears defense, putting up 45 points for 448 total yards (215 rushing, 233 passing). The impact was certainly felt in the fantasy realm, as the Bengals boasted three of the top-10 scorers in Week 7. Carson Palmer threw a touchdown pass in each of his first four drives of the game to finish with 233 yards and five scores, two of which went Ochocinco's way. Cedric Benson continued to make his case as a top-five back with a 189-yard, one-touchdown performance against his former team.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES
Vernon Davis had the best performance of his four-year career in Sunday's loss against the Texans, finding the endzone three times en route to a seven-reception, 93-yard effort. He managed to double his touchdown total on the season in the second half when Alex Smith replaced Shaun Hill as the 49ers' starting quarterback. Seven of Smith's 22 career touchdowns have gone Davis' way, so Davis' value should only improve with the impending quarterback change in San Francisco.
Chris ‘Beanie' Wells rushed for 67 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries as the Cardinals defeated the Giants on Sunday night. His 13-yard score was particularly impressive, as he delivered a crushing stiff arm to strong safety CC Brown on his way to the end zone. Teammate Tim Hightower was given just four carries, perhaps signaling a changing of the guard.
INJURY WATCH
Andre Johnson is not expected to miss any time with his chest injury, as X-rays came back negative for any fractures. The doctors are calling it a chest contusion. He should be good to go for the Texans' Week 8 matchup against the Bills.
Leon Washington will miss the rest of the season with a broken fibula. Shonn Greene is the biggest beneficiary here as he did a more than admirable job of filling in for Washington on Sunday, totaling 144 yards on 19 carries for two touchdowns.
I just got done looking over the schedule for this upcoming weekend and identified a few matchups that look like they could be really good and also some that you want to take caution with. Another factor that will start to come into play will be weather. Did you see the New England game last week? I know from experience, playing in cold weather is tough…especially for offenses. Quarterbacks fingers are numb and accuracy suffers, running backs slip because it's wet and receivers miss a lot more balls in bad weather.
So as we get into the fall season where cooler weather will come into play, make sure you factor in the location of where your guys will be playing their games. The same goes for your tires. As you travel to the games make sure your tires are able to handle the situation. And no tire gets your SUV or pickup to the game better than the LTX M/S2 tire. It performs excellent in wet weather and snow and stops 7 feet shorter than the competition.
Good matchups:
QB Tony Romo vs. Atlanta - The last time Romo was listed in this spot (Week 5 against Kansas City), he torched the Chiefs for 351 yards and two scores. The Falcons are a touch better against the pass, but they'll be playing without Brian Williams, a key cover man, for the rest of 2009. One Williams' loss should be another Williams' gain, as Cowboys receiver Roy Williams returns from a rib injury to give Romo another target to complement tight end Jason Witten and Week 5 wonderboy Miles Austin. Atlanta yielded 300 yards and two touchdowns to Jay Cutler last Sunday, and Romo has a chance to inflict similar damage.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson at Kansas City - Tomlinson has struggled mightily this season, missing two full games to injury and averaging just 3.7 yards per carry when he has played (his average over the previous three years was a robust 4.6). Although he managed just 70 yards in a loss to Denver on Monday night, he received nearly all of the carries and should bear a similar workload against the Chiefs. Kansas City surrenders more than 130 rushing yards per game, so Tomlinson should find ample room to run, even if he has lost a step from his glory days.
WR Austin Collie at St. Louis - A fourth-round pick out of Brigham Young, Collie went undrafted in most fantasy leagues but has become a legitimate starting option in the absence of opening day starter Anthony Gonzalez. Collie seems to improve every week and is coming off his finest performance of the year, an eight-catch, 97-yard outing that included two touchdown receptions. With an entire off week to prepare, Peyton Manning and offensive coordinator Tom Moore likely concocted a bundle of schemes to shred St. Louis' vulnerable pass defense, and Collie should reap the benefits. The Rams allowed Jacksonville's top two receivers, Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt, to each surpass 100 yards last week.
Bad matchups:
QB Brett Favre at Pittsburgh - Favre has been the darling of the 2009 season, leading his Vikings to multiple fourth-quarter comebacks en route to a perfect 6-0 record. Thus far, he's preyed upon some of the league's weaker defensive backfields in Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco and St. Louis, but Sunday's matchup in the Steel City will provide his stiffest test yet. The blitz-happy Steelers will apply constant defensive pressure, and ball-hawking safety Troy Polamalu will be lurking in the middle to make Favre pay for any poor decisions.
RB Pierre Thomas at Miami - Very quietly, the Dolphins have emerged as one of the league's most rigid run defenses, allowing just one player all year to rush for more than 50 yards (65 yards for Atlanta's Michael Turner in Week 1). It won't be easy to run against this group, even for an ultra-talented offense like New Orleans'. Thomas will also have his fantasy value sliced into by backfieldmates Mike Bell (who snatched the goal-line carries last week) and Reggie Bush, who will both get their share of the touches.
WR Braylon Edwards at Oakland - In six short weeks, Mark Sanchez has experienced the thrilling highs and crushing lows of playing quarterback in front of the New York media circus. He was being lauded as the next Broadway Joe after the Jets' 3-0 start, but three consecutive losses have him already answering questions about his job security. With Sanchez struggling, Edwards will have a difficult time producing quality numbers, especially this Sunday against lockdown Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. Oakland smothered the Eagles' passing attack last week.
Weigh your options. I know you've heard me say that over and over again this season, but it warrants repeating. As I talk to people about their fantasy teams I see a lot of complacency team owners sticking with a player because they drafted them in a high round. Fantasy winners are constantly gathering information, looking for positive matchups and hot players and then making decisions. I encourage you to be proactive and stay on top of your roster. Here are a few player upgrades and downgrades for week 7 to help you.
Upgrades:
After a very disappointing and injury filled 2008, Chad Ochocinco looks to be back in elite receiver form in 2009. Although he did not have a touchdown in Week 6, Ochocinco posted his first 100-yard receiving game of the season. Ochocinco has almost as many receiving yards and touchdowns through the first six weeks this season as he had in 13 total games last season. With a healthy Carson Palmer at quarterback, Ochocinco is clearly back to being a must-start receiver every week.
Sidney Rice is starting to emerge as a fantasy-worthy receiver after his huge six-catch 176-yard receiving game in the Vikings' 33-31 victory over the Ravens in Week 6. While he certainly won't have games like this every week, Rice has become a favorite target of Brett Favre, especially when he goes deep. Rice is not necessarily a must-start at this point, but you could do worse if you need a solid bye-week fill-in or depth at receiver. But Rice has the potential to perhaps become at least a flex-play if he can show some consistency.
Although it was only one game and came against a Titans team that didn't put up much of a fight, Laurence Maroney had a very impressive game Week 6 as he had 123 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. With Fred Taylor out for several weeks, if not the rest of the regular season, and now Sammie Morris potentially out for a game or two, now is Maroney's time to put a hold on the majority of the carries in the Patriots' running game. Maroney has shown flashes of potential in his brief NFL career and has the ability to be a feature back, so keep an eye on him and at least add him to your bench if he's available.
Downgrades:
It's still early but it might be time to start worrying if you're a Matt Forte owner and you were expecting big things. Forte is off to a disappointing start in 2009 as he is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and has just one touchdown through his first five games this season. Forte is coming off a game in which he had only 60 combined rushing and receiving yards and fumbled on consecutive carries at the 1-yard line. The off-season acquisition of strong-armed quarterback Jay Cutler, combined with the Bears' run-blocking struggles, has turned the Bears into more of a passing-oriented team. When the team does pass, the throws tend to be more downfield, which means Forte is being utilized less in the passing game so far this year as well.
He is still a tight end that is start-worthy in all fantasy formats, but it is apparent at least through his first five games that Tony Gonzalez is no longer the best tight end in football from a fantasy perspective. With his trade from the Chiefs to the Falcons in the offseason, Gonzalez went from being a primary target to playing second fiddle to receiver Roddy White and a run-heavy attack featuring Michael Turner. Again, Gonzalez is still a strong play, but temper your expectations as he is not the same elite receiver-level force at the tight end position in Atlanta as he was in Kansas City.
After a promising start to the season, everything came crashing down for rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. In a 16-13 Week 6 loss to the Bills he only completed 10-of-29 passes for 119 yards and had five interceptions. Sanchez certainly won't have games as bad as this all the time, but as a rookie quarterback he has the potential to have other bad games this season. For now, Sanchez is simply too unreliable from a fantasy perspective to have in your lineup until he can put up some consistent strong performances.
I'm sure by now you've seen the new Michelin ads where the Michelin Man comes to the aid of motorists in trouble, replacing their faulty tires with Michelin tires that he pulls from his body, thereby enabling them to keep driving. I think the ads are very creative; I like seeing the Michelin Man as a sort of superhero. He definitely shows how the right tire changes everything. If you haven't seen it yet, check it out at www.michelinman.com/savefuel.
There were some great games yesterday and another one on the docket tonight. Here's my take on what went on yesterday in the NFL from a fantasy perspective.
TOP PERFORMERS
Tom Brady silenced the critics and put every one of those buy or sell questions to rest with an absolutely dominant Week 6 rout of the Titans that saw him throw five touchdowns in the second quarter alone. He was pulled in the third quarter shortly after throwing his sixth touchdown pass on the team's first drive of the half, which is a scary thought.
Brady's performance overshadowed two other top-notch efforts by Drew Brees and Matt Schaub. Both quarterbacks finished with four touchdown passes and surpassed the 350-yard mark -- Brees with 369 and Schaub with 392. While Brees spread his four touchdown passes around to four different receivers, Schaub found tight end Owen Daniels twice, once from 12 yards out and the other from seven yards. If you're going to take away one thing from Schaub's performance, it should be this: Never bench him under any circumstances.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES
The Panthers' backfield duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart finally got on track in Sunday's win against the Bucaneers, combining for 262 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Sure it was against an anemic Bucs run-stopping unit, but it was an encouraging sign nonetheless to see the Panthers finally set their sights on establishing the run.
Speaking of backfield duos, Thomas Jones and Leon Washington accounted for 372 of the Jets' 414 total yards and certainly did their best to overcome the five interceptions thrown by rookie Mark Sanchez. Jones' 210 rushing yards were a franchise record and easily beat his yardage from the past four weeks combined.
INJURY WATCH
Anquan Boldin left Sunday's game with a high ankle sprain. He finished with six catches for 54 yards, but this injury is an obvious cause for concern given his propensity to miss games over the past two seasons. Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston would both benefit if Boldin were to miss any time.
Sammy Morris suffered an injury to his left knee in the first quarter of Sunday's win and had to be helped off the field as he was unable to put any pressure on his leg. Laurence Maroney was exceptional in Morris' place, running rampant for 123 yards and a score. Maroney is the obvious add here moving forward.
LenDale White was carted off the field in the second quarter of the Titans' loss to the Patriots with a knee injury. It doesn't appear to be serious as he was able to walk out of the locker room under his own power after the game. He'll have an extra week to rest up with a bye approaching.
Week 6 has all the makings of some very high scores for your teams. There will be a few shoot outs and the points will rack up big time. Here's a look ahead at what I feel are some good matchups and some tough ones to be aware.
Good matchups:
QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. Arizona -- One week after feasting on the Jaguars' feeble pass defense, Hasselbeck turns his sights on the Cardinals, who are allowing a league-high 303 passing yards per game. Arizona's pass defense has surrendered nine scores this year, including eight over the last three games. With Hasselbeck's rib injury no longer an issue and Seattle's top two receivers -- T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson -- starting to hit their stride, all signs point to another fantasy-friendly game.
RB Knowshon Moreno at San Diego -- The once formidable Chargers run defense has fallen on hard times following the loss of run-stuffing stalwart Jamal Williams to an elbow injury. Opponents have averaged over 150 rushing yards per contest against San Diego, and the Chargers have forked over six ground scores in four games. Even if Correll Buckhalter returns from his ankle injury this week, Moreno will get enough touches (as a rusher and as a receiver) to make a strong fantasy contribution. He's racked up at least 90 rushing/receiving yards in three of the last four games.
WR Donnie Avery at Jacksonville - Avery finally demonstrated signs of life last week after four straight games of quiet ineffectiveness. Marc Bulger's return from a shoulder injury increases Avery's fantasy appeal, but the matchup with Jacksonville is what should really drive Avery's stat line in Week 6. In the Jaguars' five games this season, a whopping 10 different receivers have either scored a touchdown or recorded more than 80 receiving yards. Now it's Avery's turn at the all-you-can-catch buffet.
Bad matchups:
QB Eli Manning at New Orleans - All eyes will be on the quarterbacks in this week's showdown between unbeatens New York and New Orleans, but this is shaping up to be a difficult matchup for the younger Manning brother. The Saints have allowed just two passing scores this year and lead the league with 10 interceptions. They've been especially tough on young passers Matthew Stafford (0 TDs, 3 INTs), Trent Edwards (0 TDs, 1 INT) and Mark Sanchez (0 TDs, 3 INTs). None of those players is on Manning's level, but New Orleans' track record this year is hard to ignore.
RB Jamal Lewis at Pittsburgh - Lewis made a triumphant return from his hamstring injury last week, rushing for 117 yards on 31 carries against the Bills. Playing well against the injury-ravaged Bills is nice, but he faces a much stiffer test in Week 6 against the stubborn Pittsburgh defensive front. The Steelers' run defense yields just 71 yards per game on the ground and has allowed only one running back (Cedric Benson) to find the end zone.
WR Terrell Owens at New York Jets - The stingy Jets pass defense has permitted only one receiver to top 60 receiving yards all season. That's fitting, since Owens has also been unable to crack that barrier in five games as a Bill. He'll likely spend most of the afternoon blanketed by Darrelle Revis, so don't expect Owens' streak of mediocrity to end on Sunday. Until the floundering passing attack shows signs of progress, all of Buffalo's receivers will be risky options.
Hey all -- I just went through stats for the past few weeks, looking for trends and patterns. You must constantly weigh your options to be successful. Here are a few players whose stock has risen and some that have dropped.
Upgrades:
After a very rocky offseason in which he demanded a trade and was suspended by the team, Brandon Marshall is back to being an elite receiver. Marshall has had a recent string of strong games that has coincided with him reclaiming his No. 1 receiver role. Including an eight-catch, 64-yard, two-touchdown effort in the Broncos' 20-17 Week 5 victory over the Patriots, Marshall has now scored at least one touchdown in each of his last three games. With his size, speed and improved play from quarterback Kyle Orton, Marshall should continue his recent upward climb.Speaking of Kyle Orton, he is clearly playing the best football of his career this season as he has put together some solid numbers though the season's first five weeks and is a big reason for the Broncos' 5-0 start. Orton is coming off a Week 5 performance in which he completed 35-of-48 passes for 330 yards and two touchdowns in the Broncos' 20-17 victory over the Patriots. Orton will not have weeks like this every time out, but he will probably record his first season of 3,000-plus yards and 20-plus touchdowns this year, which makes him a solid No. 2 QB for your fantasy roster who won't kill you as bye-week fill-in.
Matt Hasselbeck had his first four-touchdown passing game since the 2007-08 season in a 41-0 Week 5 victory over the Jaguars as he returned from a rib injury that had kept him out since Week 2. When he has been healthy enough to play this season, Hasselbeck has looked much more like the Pro-Bowl caliber quarterback he was for several seasons prior to last year's injury-plagued drop-off. If he can just stay healthy, Hasselbeck has a nice receiving corps to throw to this season, which would enable him to continue his impressive play. Hasselbeck is a borderline No. 1 fantasy quarterback when healthy, so pick him up if you can if you need another quarterback.
Downgrades:
He's had a Hall of Fame career and still has respectable (no longer blazing) speed to go with great hands, but Issac Bruce is just not the reliable fantasy option he once was. For one of the few times in his career, Bruce did not have a catch Week 5 vs. the Falcons. There are several factors working against Bruce having a decent fantasy season at all this year besides just father time. The 49ers feature a very heavy run attack, tight end Vernon Davis is finally starting to show signs of becoming the stud tight end that many expected and the team finally signed first-round draft pick Michael Crabtree and is looking to get him into the fold as quickly as possible.
His decline since his excellent 2007-08 season has been going on for a while, but Derek Anderson's terrible game in the Browns' 6-3 victory over the Bills in Week 5 put him in the completely untouchable category at this point, no matter how deep your league. While it was not entirely his fault due to some drops, Anderson had a terrible game, completing only two of 17 passes for 23 yards and one interception.
Although he has certainly had some productive games this season, Willis McGahee was a non-factor on Sunday, as he only had two touches (one run, one catch) in the Ravens' 17-14 Week 5 loss to the Bengals. McGahee won't be forgotten every week, but it's pretty clear Ray Rice is going to always get the bulk of the touches at running back for the Ravens. McGahee is still definitely worth a roster spot, but the uncertainty surrounding his touches from week-to-week does not make him a reliable starting option.
Anvyone had a chance to check out the Michelin tire Web site? For some of the games, you may be running into some inclement weather soon. Remember -- the right tire changes everything! Click on the link on bottom right column.
There were some interesting performances yesterday to take note. Romo owners, your patience paid off yesterday (2 touchdown passes) and how about Matt Hasselbeck's performance (4 touchdown passes) coming back from a fractured rib. Here are a few more thoughts from week 5.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES
Eddie Royal's 10-catch, 90-yard effort in Sunday's overtime win against the Patriots was enough to top his numbers from the first four weeks combined. He's still a risky play moving forward until he shows some consistency, but he'll go up against a Chargers secondary that ceded 320 yards in the air Week 4.
Miles Austin grabbed 10 catches much like Royal did but packed a much bigger punch behind them, going for 250 yards and two scores. He surely won't be seeing 15 targets again once Roy Williams (ribs) returns from his injury, but he is likely to remain an important part of the offense as the Cowboys' biggest playmaking threat out wide.
WORTH WATCHING
Make it two times in the past three weeks where Chris Brown has failed to convert late in the game in a goal-line situation. You have to think coach Gary Kubiak is at least considering putting an end to the Brown experiment and sticking with Steve Slaton. Brown fumbled the ball into the end zone in Week 3 as the Texans were rallying to tie the game up, and failed to punch it in twice (on second and fourth downs) from the one-yard line in Sunday's game against Arizona.
It was Sammy Morris who ended up getting the lion's share of touches with Fred Taylor (ankle) out until at least December. His 107 total yards on 19 touches trumped the combined production of Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk, who finished with 12 touches for 55 yards. The Patriots usually do a pretty good job of divvying up the carries on most weeks,
INJURY WATCH
Calvin Johnson limped off the field during the first quarter of the Lions' Week 5 tilt against Pittsburgh with a right knee injury. No specifics regarding the extent of the injury yet as he'll undergo tests on Monday. Bryant Johnson would be the primary receiver if Calvin were to miss any time, but we're talking about a non-explosive, below-average passing offense here even at full strength. Consider Calvin questionable at least for next week's contest against Green Bay at Lambeau Field.
In what was perhaps his last hoorah as the featured back, Glen Coffee left late in the fourth quarter of the 49ers' loss to Atlanta with a contusion to his left foot. He isn't expected to miss any time with the injury, but with San Francisco on a bye Week 6, and Frank Gore (foot, ankle) expected to return, Coffee will resume his backup duties.
This week has some very interesting games which present some favorable and some not so favorable matchups for individual players. For example, look for Tony Romo to get healthy this week against an underperforming Chiefs defense. Here's a few more.
Good matchups:
QB Tony Romo at Kansas City - Romo was listed as a bad matchup last week in Denver and wasn't able to find success against the Broncos, throwing an interception and no touchdowns. In fact, after lighting up the Bucs for three scores in the season opener, Romo has just one touchdown strike in three games since. That should change against the winless Chiefs in Week 5. Eli Manning racked up 292 yards and three scores last week, becoming the third quarterback this season to throw for at least 290 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City. Even if he's forced to play without top wideout Roy Williams (ribs), Romo is poised for a bounce-back performance.
RB Rashard Mendenhall at Detroit - Willie Parker began the year as the starter in Pittsburgh, but after Mendenhall gashed the Chargers for 165 yards and two touchdowns last week, Parker's status as the unquestioned lead back might be in question. Mendenhall ran like a man possessed against San Diego and was boosted by a spirited performance from the Steelers' offensive line. Look for the big dogs up front to have another dominating day against a Lions defense that coughs up over five yards per carry to opposing backs. Parker (toe) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so Mendenhall will likely be the workhorse again this week.
TE Dustin Keller at Miami - Keller has been fairly quiet this season after being touted by many as a potential fantasy sleeper in 2009. He hasn't posted more than 31 yards in a game since Week 1, but young quarterback Mark Sanchez is still looking Keller's way with regularity, so a breakout game could be on the horizon. The Dolphins, who seem unable to cover the tight end position this season, provide the ideal opponent. Antonio Gates (five catches, 64 yards), Dallas Clark (seven catches, 183 yards, one touchdown) and Tony Gonzalez (five catches, 73 yards, one touchdown) all delivered big fantasy games against Miami.
Bad matchups:
QB Carson Palmer at Baltimore - A healthy Palmer has helped propel Cincinnati to a surprising 3-1 start, but an improved defense and a strong running game have been the biggest keys to the Bengals' early success. Palmer is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game (22nd in the league) and might find yardage tough to come by against the always formidable Ravens. Baltimore's pass defense hasn't been dominant this season, but they're still the Ravens, a team that has held Palmer without a touchdown in their last two meetings.
RB Michael Turner at San Francisco - Last week Steven Jackson was in this spot based on a matchup with the 49ers. Coach Mike Singletary's group didn't disappoint, limiting Jackson to 79 yards on 23 carries, one week after holding Adrian Peterson under 100 yards. If those two couldn't break loose against San Fran, Turner (3.5 yards per carry this season) seems destined to struggle as well. The 49ers' fourth-ranked run defense has yet to allow a rushing score to an opposing running back this season. Gotta love those Niners!
TE Kellen Winslow at Philadelphia - No tight end has reached 50 yards or scored a touchdown against the Eagles this season. Overall, Philly's aggressive defense ranks second in the league against the pass, allowing less than 160 passing yards per game. Those numbers spell trouble for Tampa Bay's offense, which is still breaking in a new quarterback (Josh Johnson). Winslow managed just two catches for 21 yards in Johnson's debut.
Before I get into football, last week I was able to get a sneak-peek of the new advertising campaign from Michelin. The famed Michelin Man has really taken on a dramatic role taking tires from himself (did you know he is made of tires?) and helping others in a really cool animated world. You have to check it out! Visit www.michelinman.com/the-right-tire to see for yourself. You may even see the spot during one of your favorite games this weekend so keep an eye out for it.
As I mentioned before, player values change constantly due to injuries, playing time, performance, etc. Here are a few players to be mindful of, both upgrades and downgrades.
Upgrades:
After a rocky 2008 season, and a rather unimpressive Week 1 this season, David Garrard is back after a third straight game with at least one touchdown either rushing or passing. Garrard was huge in the Jaguars' 37-17 thrashing of the Titans in Week 4 as he was an impressive 27-of-37 passing for 323 yards and three touchdowns. Garrard also added 38 yards rushing on eight carries. While he won't pass for 300 yards every week he looks like he is at worst a No. 2 fantasy quarterback who could make for a nice bye-week fill-in.
Garrard's teammate, young wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, has rocketed onto the scene since returning to the lineup after missing Week 1. The Jaguars have always been high on this talented third-year player and now he is showing why. Sims-Walker is clearly Garrard's top target as he has had at least six catches in his last three games. In three games this year Sims-Walker has 19 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns. Health has always been a concern, but if Sims-Walker is available in your league and you need some receiver help you could do a lot worse.
Rashard Mendenhall got the chance to start at running back for the injured Willie Parker in Week 4 and ran over, around, and through the San Diego Chargers as he pulverized them to the tune of 165 yards and two touchdowns in the Sunday night victory for the Steelers. Mendenhall quite simply looks great. While it is not set in stone that Mendenhall is now the starting running back for the Steelers, the team has been looking for Mendenhall to seize the opportunity to get more carries ever since they made him their first-round pick last year. Parker could still miss at least one more game so Mendenhall is at a minimum worth a start for your fantasy team in Week 5.
Downgrades:
Larry Johnson is really struggling through the first four weeks of the season, averaging 2.6 yards per carry (72 carries for only 189 yards) and has yet to find the end zone. To be fair, the Chiefs have gone against some tough defenses in their first four games, but Johnson has several factors working against him. The Chiefs have a sub-par offensive line, a mediocre defense that stays on the field too long and an inconsistent passing game. In addition, Johnson appears to have lost a step, which doesn't help matters either. All of this will, unfortunately, make Johnson a running back barely worth spot starting.
Willie Parker has battled through injuries this season and, as a result, has given Rashard Mendenhall an opportunity to showcase the talent he had been previously hiding in his NFL career to date. Mendenhall's breakout 165-yard, two-touchdown effort Week 4 vs. the Chargers may spell less carries for Parker upon his return. We won't know for certain how everything will shake out until Parker returns from injury, but it's worth noting that Parker was struggling this season even before getting hurt as he was only averaging 3.1 yards per carry before his injury opened the door for Mendenhall. In addition, another talented Steelers back, Mewelde Moore, is always a threat to steal touches from Parker.
After showing signs of becoming a fantasy-worthy tight end in 2008 Anthony Fasano has basically disappeared in 2009. Fasano only has four catches for 18 yards and no touchdowns through the first four weeks of the season. Fasano is simply not being targeted very often in the passing game, and the Dolphins try to run the ball as much as possible given that inexperienced Chad Henne is now their starting quarterback. Unfortunately for Fasano, it doesn't look as if things are going to change anytime soon.
I hope your team performed well this weekend. If so, good. If not, don't fret stay focused. I truly believe that leagues are won between weeks 5-12. With that said, it was another great weekend of football action. Here's a review of Week 4.
BOUNCE-BACK EFFORTS
Steve Slaton got off to a rocky start, losing a fumble late in the first quarter Sunday, but rebounded nicely to put together his best performance of the 2009 season. Slaton found the end zone twice on the day, once on a 32-yard run in the second quarter, and again on an 18-yard catch-and-run two-and-a-half minutes later. He'll face a tough test next week against a stout Cardinals run defense that has allowed just 3.1 yards per carry and 79.7 rushing yards per game.
Matt Forte torched the Lions for 140 total yards in Sunday's 24-point win, with 121 yards on the ground on 12 carries to go along with two receptions for 19 yards. He started things off by breaking off a 61-yard run that set up the Bears' first touchdown, only to cap it off with a 37-yard touchdown of his own in the fourth quarter. Although his performance was a welcome sight for Forte owners who have had to struggle through a rough opening three-week period, it presents itself as a pretty good opportunity to sell high. The vast majority of Forte's point total was generated on those two runs alone, and if you take them out of the equation you'll see a glaring similarity to his 2.5 yard-per-carry average heading into Sunday.
MAJOR LETDOWNS
Braylon Edwards continued to disappoint, failing to catch a pass for the first time this season. Edwards and the rest of the Browns' receiving corps were thoroughly outplayed by rookie Mohamed Massaquoi, who grabbed eight receptions for 148 yards after catching just two passes in the previous three games. Many were expecting Edwards to deliver a bounce-back performance of sorts with Derek Anderson at the helm, but he was even worse than usual this week, which is saying a lot.
Darren McFadden failed to capitalize on a cushy matchup against a Texans defense that entered Week 5 having allowed 205 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. He carried the ball six times and finished with minus-three yards rushing. Justin Fargas did not fare any better, totaling 24 yards on 10 carries and getting wrapped up in the end zone midway through the third quarter for a safety. McFadden will remain a somewhat risky option with the continued anemic play of quarterback JaMarcus Russell.
INJURY WATCH
Matthew Stafford suffered a subluxation of his right knee in the fourth quarter of the Lions' loss against the Bears in which his kneecap popped out of its normal position and then back in. Early speculation is that it's not season threatening, but it does cloud his availability for the next week at least. Daunte Culpepper filled in for Stafford on Sunday after he left with the injury, going 6-of-11 for 54 yards.
Devin Hester left with a shoulder injury in the second quarter as he took a hard hit after catching a short pass and trying to juke defenders Louis Delmas and William James. Early word is he's expected to be good to go after the Bears' Week 5 bye.
Roy Williams sustained a rib injury after taking a hard shot in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss to the Broncos. He came back initially after the hit and had a 15-yard reception, but the pain was too much for him to handle, and he had to sit out the Cowboys' final offensive series. No word yet on the extent of the injury, but either way it does not change the fact that Williams and the Cowboys' offense as a whole have been a major disappointment thus far.
Usually by Friday or Saturday your lineup should be mostly set. The guys that you drafted in the first 5 rounds are going to be your starters no matter what. But for me and many of you I'm sure, there are always a few positions that I'm unsure of or seem a little weak. That's where this information will come in handy. Here are three players that have really good matchups and should shine this week, and three players that'll have tough matchups. Weigh your options and set your rosters accordingly.
Good matchups:
QB Jason Campbell vs. Tampa Bay -- The Redskins are struggling, coach Jim Zorn is answering a daily barrage of questions about his job security, and the team's best offensive player - Clinton Portis - is banged up. A fantasy wasteland, right? Not at all. Campbell has feasted on poor defenses in his last two games, throwing for a combined 582 yards and two touchdowns. He gets another soft secondary this week in the form of the Buccaneers, who are surrendering over 250 yards and two touchdowns through the air per game.
RB Glen Coffee vs. St. Louis -- The 49ers' hard-nosed rookie runner has a golden opportunity to make a name for himself in his first career start. St. Louis coughs up nearly 150 rushing yards per game and ranks 29th in the league in overall defense. Coffee couldn't get anything going last week in Minnesota after Frank Gore was injured (25 carries for 54 yards), but should see plenty more running lanes and big-play opportunities against the Rams. The fact that he has just three games of NFL experience under his belt shouldn't bother you; San Francisco coach Mike Singletary has no problem making Coffee the centerpiece of the team's run-first, ball-control offense.
WR Mike Sims-Walker vs. Tennessee -- When you think of the Titans, don't get suckered into remembering last year's defensive unit that was in the top 10 in pass defense and allowed just 12 aerial touchdowns all season. The 2009 squad has been routinely torched by opposing receivers, a major reason for the team's 0-3 start. In just three games, four receivers have passed the 100-yard mark against Tennessee, combining for four touchdowns along the way. Sims-Walker enters the game on a nice little two-game roll (187 yards and a touchdown) and should find plenty of room to operate against the Titans.
Bad matchups:
QB Tony Romo at Denver -- Romo is probably too good to bench in most fantasy leagues unless you have a great No. 2 option, but his matchup this week spells potential trouble. Denver's pass defense has been incredible this year, ranking second in the league in passing yards allowed and not giving up a single touchdown through the air. They can also pressure the passer, tying a league high with 10 sacks in three games. Bear in mind that these stats haven't been accumulated against the most fearsome passing attacks (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland), but there's still something to be said for shutting down the teams you should shut down. Considering Romo's recent struggles, it wouldn't be surprising to see him post another below-average stat line in Week 4.
RB Steven Jackson at San Francisco -- Jackson is another player who should be starting nearly every week, though he'll find it hard to live up to his first-round fantasy draft status against the 49ers. San Francisco held the Vikings' vaunted rushing attack under 100 yards last week and surrenders just 67 rushing yards per game this season. Quarterback Marc Bulger is unlikely to play this week, and receiver Laurent Robinson is out for the year with an injury, leaving the Rams with Donnie Avery and not much else at receiver. With the Rams' passing attack in a state of disarray, the 49ers will be cramming the box with defenders to stop Jackson.
WR Derrick Mason at New England -- No receiver has gone over 100 yards or scored a touchdown against the Patriots this season, so don't be surprised if that trend continues with Mason. He's tempting to start after playing well against the Browns, but Terrell Owens, Jerricho Cotchery and Roddy White have averaged just 52 yards receiving against this secondary. Joe Flacco and the impressive Baltimore passing attack may finally slip up a bit in Week 4.
After three weeks of games I'm already starting to see a lot of player movement (in fantasy value), both due to injuries and also performance. Some guys are really stepping up and performing well when their number is called and in turn their number will be called more often. This is why it's important to continually weigh your options.
Speaking of weighing your options, have you had the opportunity to weigh your tire options yet? Click on the LTX M/S2 tire on the right to get the facts and weigh your tire options it's pretty cool.
Here are a few upgrades and downgrades.
Upgrades:
After the Redskins struggled to get him the ball the first two weeks of the season, Santana Moss erupted in Week 3 with 10 catches for 178 yards and a touchdown vs. the Lions. Granted, Moss will not go against defenses as weak as the Lions every week, but expect him to stay on track for better performances in the near future – the Redskins have to get him the ball more often to have any chance of scoring. Moss has a favorable matchup against another weak defense in Week 4 as the Redskins host the Buccaneers.
Veteran running back Fred Taylor had his first 100-yard game since last season as he carried the ball 21 times for 105 yards and a touchdown in New England's 26-10 victory over Atlanta in Week 3. This game follows Taylor's Week 2 effort of 46 yards on only eight carries. A big reason for Taylor's big game was the fact that Laurence Maroney went down with an injury, but this type of production is nevertheless hard to ignore. Expect Taylor to get the majority of the carries in the Patriots' crowded backfield at least in the near future. Also, it is worth noting that Taylor actually gets carries in the red zone with his new team, something Jacksonville tended to not afford him in recent years.
Brent Celek had his second straight 100-yard receiving game and scored his second touchdown of the season in the Eagles' 34-14 victory over the hapless Chiefs in Week 3. While Celek was certainly a young tight end to keep an eye on entering the season it is safe to say he is exceeding expectations as he already has 22 catches for 245 yards through only three games. Celek clearly has the potential to develop into a top-tier tight end if he can keep getting open and targeted heavily.
Downgrades:
Byron Leftwich is no longer the Buccaneers' starting quarterback as he has been replaced by second-year quarterback Josh Johnson. Before struggling mightily in Week 3 against the Giants, Leftwich actually put together a couple of decent fantasy performances over the first two weeks of the season. At 0-3, however, the Buccaneers have decided to start furthering their youth movement by seeing what Johnson can do. Leftwich may not even play again this season as he has been regulated to third-string behind rookie first-round pick Josh Freeman.
Chad Pennington will not be the Dolphins starting quarterback for the foreseeable future as he is most likely out for the rest of the season after injuring his shoulder during the team's 23-13 loss to the Chargers in Week 3. Pennington's production was down this season prior to his injury, but nevertheless he is certainly a downgrade now. This injury could also negatively affect the Dolphins' wide receivers and tight ends as there may be a bit of a drop in the team's passing game now that Chad Henne is playing quarterback.
After a decent Week 1, Michael Clayton pulled a disappearing act as he followed a two-catch, 27-yard Week 2 with no receptions in Week 3 vs. the Giants. He is still at least getting some targets (four in Week 3), but he is just not producing. Granted, the Buccaneers were completely inept on offense as they gained less than 100 total yards in getting shut out 24-0, but Clayton actually dropped a potential touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, it's not a good sign that Clayton only caught two passes out of 26 completions by Byron Leftwich in Week 2 even though he was on the field quite a bit as one of Tampa Bay's starting wide receivers.
Despite my Niners losing on the last play of the game, week 3 proved to be a very good week of football. There are a few key points to draw upon after yesterday's games.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES
Pierre Thomas had a big week, amassing 126 yards and two scores on just 14 carries. He showed almost no ill effects from his sprained knee, slicing the Bills defense apart and breaking off 34- and 19-yard runs for scores. He'll continue to see the majority of the carries with Mike Bell (sprained MCL) sidelined for another two to three weeks. The Saints' upcoming schedule (which consists of the Jets and Giants) is a bit concerning, but this is obviously great news for Thomas owners as their second-to-third round selection is finally paying dividends.
Knowshon Moreno scored the first touchdown of his career in Sunday's win against the Raiders, a seven-yard run in the third quarter. He ceded some attempts to Correll Buckhalter, but still got his fair share of opportunities, totaling 21 rushes for 90 yards. The backfield should eventually sort itself out to a 60/30/10 split with Moreno leading the way, making him a solid RB2 option and a great flex play moving forward. The Broncos offense faces off against the Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers in the next three weeks, all of whom have allowed at least 4.0 yards-per-carry in the first three games.
MATCH-UP SPECIAL
Maurice Jones-Drew carried on the weekly tradition of taking advantage of the flimsy Texans defense, torching them for 147 total yards and three scores on Sunday. If MJD's performance and those before him (Thomas Jones – 107 yards and two touchdowns; Chris Johnson – 284 total yards and three touchdowns) are any indication, Darren McFadden is in store for a big game in Week 4 as the Raiders head to Reliant Stadium to take on Houston.
FLYING UNDER THE RADAR
Cedric Benson passed a big test against the terrific Steelers run defense, rushing for 76 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. He's tallied at least 13 fantasy points in each of the Bengals' three games so far behind the play of a much-improved offensive line. Benson will get a breather next week against the Browns, but faces a slate of stout run defenses after that. He'll go up against the Steelers once again in Week 10, the Ravens twice (Weeks 5 and 9), the Vikings (Week 14), and the Jets (Week 17). Benson's performance on Sunday indicated that he'll find a way to produce against stiff competition, but it remains to be seen how much longer he will be able to sustain this level of production.
INJURY WATCH
Frank Gore aggravated his right ankle injury on the very first play of Sunday's game against the Vikings. There are mixed reports on whether Gore sprained or strained his ankle, but his status is up in the air for at least the immediate future. He'll at least be limited for Week 4. Glen Coffee is the clear beneficiary here and should be added immediately as the 49ers will continue to implement a run-first offense.
Kevin Smith injured his right shoulder in the third quarter of Sunday's win against the Redskins. No word yet on the severity of the injury, but it's believed to be pretty significant. If Smith were to miss any time, Maurice Morris and Aaron Brown would see the majority of the carries.
As I do every Friday morning, I went through the schedule for this upcoming week and took a look at the matchups. For example, the Cleveland Browns' run defense has been dreadful thus far in the season giving up more than 200 yards per game. The Browns will play the Ravens this week, which means the Ravens' RBs should have a good week. Add to that the fact that Willis McGahee is off to a great start this season, running like a man with a mission, averaging almost 5 yards per carry, and this is a good matchup.
Here's a few good and some not-so-good matchups for week 3. Good luck!Good matchups:
QB David Garrard at Houston - After struggling mightily against the Colts in Week 1, Garrard rebounded to throw for 282 yards and two scores in a Week 2 loss to Arizona. Granted, much of that production came after the Jags had already fallen behind 31-3, but in fantasy football, points are points regardless of whether they come in garbage time. Look for him to come out of the gate more quickly Sunday against Houston, the league's 22nd-ranked pass defense. In two games against the Texans last year, Garrard averaged 262 yards through the air, accounted for three touchdowns and chipped in with 51 yards rushing.
RB Willis McGahee vs. Cleveland - It's always risky to recommend a running back who isn't even technically his team's starter, but sometimes a matchup comes around that's just too juicy to pass up. Opposing rushers have run roughshod over Cleveland's porous run defense through two weeks, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. With the Browns surrendering over 200 yards per game on the ground, even if McGahee splits carries evenly with Ray Rice, he'll still get enough action to be productive. Plus, he's the man Baltimore calls on to finish drives near the goal line, with four touchdowns already.
WR Donald Driver at St. Louis - Green Bay's offense is going to snap out of its early-season funk eventually, and who better to do it against than the hapless Rams, who stumble into this matchup ranked 25th in pass defense. Although Greg Jennings is the primary option for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Driver leads the team in receptions (10) and yards (138) through two games. Even at age 34, he's clearly still a major part of the Packers' offensive plans.
Bad matchups:
QB Kerry Collins at New York Jets - With 460 passing yards and three touchdowns in two games, Collins has been more productive early this season than many expected. He's as crafty as they come, but coach Rex Ryan's Jets present a mammoth challenge. New York has yet to allow an offensive touchdown this season - even Tom Brady and the vaunted Patriots could muster just three field goals last week. Although they have just two sacks to their credit, the Jets are also adept at bringing pressure, so protecting Collins could become an issue for Tennessee.
RB Cedric Benson vs. Pittsburgh - Benson gashed the Packers for 141 rushing yards last week and has racked up 249 total yards in two games. He'll be hard-pressed to continue that success against Pittsburgh. Led by outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, the Steelers' ferocious defense is allowing just 65 rushing yards per game and has yet to give up a score on the ground. Bears RB Matt Forte ran for just 29 yards against this group last week, while the Titans' Chris Johnson managed only 57 yards in Week 1.
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. Chicago - Who will be throwing to Houshmandzadeh this week? QB Matt Hasselbeck has a fractured rib and seems unlikely to play, making this an even tougher matchup for Seattle's receivers. Meanwhile, Chicago is stopping nearly everything through the air, except for that costly last-minute Green Bay touchdown in Week 1. The Bears are surrendering just 177 net passing yards per game and generating consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks (six sacks). There are a lot of red flags here this week.
Here are six players whose status has changed over the past week. This is all information to help you weigh your options and succeed in your fantasy league. I've also posted my weekly picks (right column) so check ‘em out.
Upgrades:
After struggling all preseason and Week 1, Kurt Warner looks to be back in top form as he completed his first 15 passes and broke the NFL's single-game record for completion percentage in the Cardinals' 31-17 victory over the Jaguars in Week 2. All in all, Warner was an amazing 24-of-26 for 243 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. As long as the Cardinals can keep him upright, Warner should produce more like he did in Week 2 than Week 1 this season.
Second-year wide receiver Mario Manningham has truly burst onto the scene for the Giants, and his coming out party was Week 2 vs. Dallas as he caught a whopping 10 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown. This follows Manningham's 58-yard, one-touchdown effort in Week 1. Both performances came when starting the game as the team's No. 3 wide receiver. Bet on the speedy and sure-handed Manningham becoming a starter and getting a lot of targets the rest of this season as the Giants' current No. 2 wide receiver, Domenik Hixon, has struggled to produce and stay healthy.
Willis McGahee is running like a man possessed to begin this season as it seems he has taken his demotion from top running back for the Ravens as a challenge to his manhood. Through the season's first two games, McGahee is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per reception and only has three less total touches than starter Ray Rice but has already scored four touchdowns compared to Rice's zero. It appears McGahee will get most of team's red zone and goal-line work, making him at worst a LenDale White circa 2008 type of running back this season.
Downgrades:
After a promising Week 1, Roy Williams was almost invisible Week 2 as he only had one catch for 18 yards in the Cowboys' 33-31 loss to the Giants on Sunday night. It certainly did not help Williams that many of Tony Romo's throws were inaccurate. But it does not look like so far that Williams is going to step in and become the next T.O. in Dallas as some have predicted.
Earnest Graham is just not getting many opportunities to produce through the first two weeks this season and has become an unsafe fantasy start. Graham did a solid job as the primary running back for the Buccaneers the last two seasons but is now the third back in a 2-2-1 rotation with Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward. Couple this with the fact that Tampa Bay is likely going to be playing from behind a lot this season, Graham will not see many touches this season unless injury were to befall Williams or Ward.
Although he is racking up yardage, Ray Rice is not getting many red-zone carries. Rice, who many projected as a good draft-day value, may still wind up as a 1,000-yard rusher, but it looks like, at least early on, that he will have few touchdown opportunities. So far Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McLain have gotten the majority of the goal-line carries for the Ravens. In addition, McGahee is also getting more work than anticipated between the 20s and is off to a hot start.
Hey, if any of you fans own a truck or SUV, you should really think about checking your tires to see if you may be ready for a new set. The fall season is coming up and not only can tires make a difference in inclement weather, the right tire really can change everything from performance to extending the life of your vehicle. I'm riding on Michelin LTX M/S2 tires now. Check them out!
Yesterday proved to be very interesting with a lot of great performances. I jotted down some notes yesterday as I watched the games. Here are my thoughts on week 2.
TOP PERFORMERS
Chris Johnson put on a clinic against the Texans defense, totaling 284 total yards to go along with three scores. He broke off two big touchdown runs for 57 and 91 yards while also finding the end zone on a 69-yard reception where he was seemingly ignored. His 46-point effort single-handedly won many fantasy owners their matchups and may go down as the highest single-week point total of the season. As big a story as Johnson's performance was the embarrassing showing from the Texans defense. They've had major issues with giving up huge plays since the preseason and seemed to check out mentally at various points in Sunday's contest. Maurice Jones-Drew should have a field day next week if the Texans defense continues down this road.
After being limited to a mere 1.4 yards per carry in the season opener, Frank Gore ran all over the Seahawks in Week 2, finishing with 207 yards on 16 carries and two touchdowns. He did leave the game with an ankle injury, but should be good to go for the 49ers' next game against the Vikings. Gore will remain the lone focal point of coach Mike Singletary and new OC Jimmy Raye's offense moving forward.
BOUNCEBACK PERFORMANCES
After sputtering against the rejuvenated Rex Ryan-led Jets defense in Week 1, the Texans offense bounced back against the Titans. Matt Schaub completed 25-of-39 passes for 357 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Texans to a 34-31 victory. Schaub is a must-start for fantasy owners moving forward. Andre Johnson also came through with a stellar performance, catching 10 passes for 149 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
STATUS CHECK
Cornerback Darrelle Revis has become a significant matchup problem for opposing receivers, limiting Andre Johnson to four receptions and 35 yards in the Jets' season opener and then holding Randy Moss to four receptions and 24 yards in Sunday's win. The Jets will face the Titans in Week 3, so don't expect Justin Gage to make a significant impact.
INJURY WATCH
Mike Bell left Sunday's game against Philadelphia with what's being called a sprained MCL. It's believed to be the same sprain Pierre Thomas suffered four weeks ago, putting Bell's availability in doubt for the next few weeks at least. This appears to be the break that Thomas needed to reclaim his starting job as he'll now have a clear path to the majority of the carries in the backfield.
Brian Westbrook may have suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday's game against the Saints -- the same ankle on which he had an offseason cleanout procedure. This is certainly a situation to keep a close eye on over the next week, but he'll almost surely be questionable for the Eagles' next contest against Kansas City. LeSean McCoy is the clear add here if Westbrook were to miss any time.
Week 2 should prove to be an interesting week for fantasy football. As I mentioned before, this game is all about weighing your options. If you put your team in autopilot, you're going to get bad results. To help you weigh your options I've identified a few good fantasy matchups and a few matchups that will not be favorable for this upcoming week. For example, I really like Darren McFadden this week against the Chiefs' defense. While McFadden might not be the top running back on your roster, this is a good week to insert him into your starting lineup (see below why).
Good luck this week!
Good matchups:
QB Trent Edwards vs. Tampa Bay -- Playing in a hostile road environment against one of the league's best teams on Monday Night Football, Edwards looked unfazed. He coolly completed 15--of--25 passes for 212 yards and two scores, putting the Bills in position for a major upset against the heavily favored Patriots. This week could be even better, as Edwards gets to feast on a Tampa Bay defense that struggled in its first game since losing defensive wizard Monte Kiffin. The Bucs coughed up 353 yards and three long touchdown passes to Tony Romo and the Cowboys in Week 1.
RB Darren McFadden at Kansas City -- Despite splitting carries with Michael Bush, McFadden managed 17 carries against the Chargers on Monday night. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry for a respectable 68 yards, but should have more success Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs gave up nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns to Baltimore in Week 1 and seem to have carried over many of their defensive struggles from a season ago. The only fly in the ointment for McFadden is the presence of Bush, who vultured a goal--line touchdown last week and could do so again in Kansas City. The matchup is good enough, however, that both McFadden and Bush could post worthwhile fantasy numbers.
WRs Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin at Detroit -- Working against a Lions secondary that got carved up to the tune of 358 yards and six touchdowns in Week 1, all of the Vikings' pass--catchers have a good matchup on Sunday. Berrian played through a hamstring injury last week and didn't catch any passes, but he'll be running at 100 percent in Detroit and should rebound nicely. The rookie Harvin seems to be quickly developing a rapport with quarterback Brett Favre, especially in the red zone, where he received two targets last week and scored on a six--yard touchdown.
Bad matchups:
QB Mark Sanchez vs. New England -- Sanchez is getting a lot of praise for his debut performance against the Texans in Week 1, but he'll really start getting hype if he manages to repeat that success in a divisional battle against the Patriots. It won't be easy, with mastermind coach Bill Belichick expected to throw an assortment of blitzes and a variety of looks at the young rookie. New England looked a bit rusty against the Bills on Monday night, but Belichick should have them in mid--season form against Sanchez this week.
RB Kevin Smith vs. Minnesota -- Matthew Stafford is not yet a major threat throwing the ball, allowing defenses to focus on stopping Smith. The second--year back had no room to run against the Saints last week and finished with just 20 yards on 15 carries. His assignment is even tougher this week against Minnesota's suffocating defensive front.
WR Devery Henderson at Philadelphia -- Henderson was the biggest float in New Orleans' season--opening passing parade, leading the team with five receptions for 103 yards and a score. Always capable of a big game, the knock on him has been consistency -- over the last two seasons, he's finished games with fewer than 10 yards just as many times as he's finished with more than 100 yards. This week he faces an Eagles team that smothered Carolina's offense last week and sent quarterback Jake Delhomme to the bench. Drew Brees and the Saints should fare better, but Henderson will struggle to approach last week's numbers.
I hope you had a great week 1 of fantasy football. If you didn't just remember it's a long season and there's plenty of time to climb to the top of your league. However, it's going to take some attention and focus on your part -- same goes for those who are at the top of their league. To help you, I've identified a few players to keep an eye on; players on the rise and players whose status is uncertain.
One other thing, on the right of this page you'll see my weekly picks. These are my predictions on which players/team will be the best in stopping power (team defense), going the distance (the player who will finish the game strong and lead his team to victory) and better handling (the RB that will shine). My picks were right on the money last week!
Upgrades:
Joe Flacco erupted for a career-high 307 yards and three touchdowns in the Ravens' 38-24 win over the Chiefs in Week 1. Flacco, who was more of a game-manager as a rookie last year, looks like he is starting to take the next step in his development. Flacco is now reaching the point where the Ravens can call on him to win games for them with his arm. As a result, he's been given more freedom, which makes the Ravens offense more versatile and effective.
Reggie Wayne had a monster game Week 1 as he caught 10 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown in the Colts' 14-12 victory over the Jaguars. Already the team's No. 1 wide receiver, Wayne will continue to get a lot of passes thrown his way in the next few weeks because No. 2 wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez will be sidelined for up to six weeks with a right knee ligament injury, and there is not much behind him in terms of depth at the position. Wayne could be on his way to another 100-catch, 10-touchdown year like he had two years ago when Marvin Harrison missed most of the season and Gonzalez was an unproven rookie.
It's only one game and it came against a mediocre defense, but Mark Sanchez was very impressive in his first career game Week 1 in the Jets' 24-7 win at Houston. Sanchez threw for 272 yards and one touchdown and displayed a strong and accurate arm, good pocket presence and mobility. The Jets look like they could be this year's Falcons or Ravens with Sanchez doing his best Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco impersonation. If Sanchez can maintain his high level of play at home in Week 2 vs. the Patriots he could be worthy of at least a roster spot on your fantasy team.
Downgrades:
Jake Delhomme unfortunately picked right up where he left off at the end of last season as he had a terrible game in the Panthers' 38-10 home loss to the Eagles in Week 1. Delhomme was 7-of-17 for only 74 yards and he threw four interceptions and lost a fumble before being pulled out of the game in the third quarter. Delhomme, who was signed to a big contract extension in the offseason even though he had a disastrous five-interception game in a playoff loss to the Cardinals last year, will get another start in Week 2, but it's a road game in Atlanta, which will be no easy task. Another game like his last two and he may have to go to the bench for a while.
Jay Cutler looked like he was trying to do too much in Week 1 and his stats reflected it. Cutler threw four interceptions as he made several bad decisions and inaccurate throws, completing 17-of-36 pass attempts. With the loss of Brian Urlacher for the season, there will be even more pressure on Cutler to lead the team to victory with his arm. Cutler does not have the caliber of receivers in Chicago that he had in Denver but does have two good tight ends and a stud running back who can catch in Matt Forte. Bottom line: Cutler won't throw four interceptions every game but those 4,500-plus yards and 25 touchdowns he amassed last year with the Broncos will be tough to duplicate with the Bears this year.
He still may turn out to have a decent season, but the concerns are mounting for LaDainian Tomlinson as he only received 14 touches in Week 1 vs. the Raiders. Part of the reason for his low usage was that he twisted his ankle on a carry that resulted in his first lost fumble since 2006. Another reason for concern is the continued emergence of backup running back Darren Sproles, who will continue to steal touches if he keeps up his stellar play. If Tomlinson plays at all Week 2 he might not do much vs. the vaunted Baltimore defense, so consider putting another running back in your lineup if you can, at least temporarily.
I woke up yesterday with a smile on my face ... I'm very happy that football is back! And what a week it was -- Giants defense was dominant, Favre in purple, an amazing finish in Cincinnati, Sanchez gets a win in his first start, the Niners beat the NFC champs and much more. Here's an in-depth look at the top fantasy performers of the week, those that underperformed and other important tid bits.
TOP PERFORMERS
Adrian Peterson was flat out dominant against the Cleveland Browns, leading all scorers with 180 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Although AP dazzled from start to finish, his performance was highlighted by an absolutely phenomenal 64-yard touchdown run that saw him juke, evade, stiff arm and toss around multiple defenders. He's got a slate of favorable matchups on tap, starting with an abysmal Lions defense next week. This may sound absurd, but it really wouldn't surprise us if he managed to top this performance in Week 2.
Speaking of the Lions defense, Drew Brees picked up right where he left off last year, torching them for 358 passing yards and a franchise-record six touchdowns. He distributed the wealth pretty evenly too, hitting five different players for scores. Tom Brady comeback or not, Brees will remain the most valuable fantasy quarterback in all formats based on the sheer number of pass attempts he will throw in the Saints' system (nearly 650) and the multitude of weapons he has to work with.
LETDOWN PERFORMANCES
The entire Houston Texans offense sputtered against the Jets, managing to score just one touchdown and total 183 net yards. New Jets head coach Rex Ryan wasted little time making his mark as New York completely overwhelmed the Texans offensive unit. Matt Schaub threw for just 166 yards and a pick, Steve Slaton was held to 52 total yards along with two fumbles lost, while Andre Johnson finished with only 35 receiving yards. The outlook does not get any more favorable next week as the Texans will travel to LP Field to take on the Titans.
STATUS CHECK
Mike Bell did an admirable job filling in for Pierre Thomas, finishing with 143 rushing yards on 28 attempts, good for a 5.1 yard-per-carry average. Bell is currently keeping the seat warm until Thomas is healthy, which should be sooner rather than later, but it's tough to see coach Sean Payton completely phasing Bell out of the rotation after he turned in such a strong performance on Sunday. Monitor this situation moving forward as Thomas, a second-to-third-round pick in most leagues, may be hard pressed to regain his role as the team's predominant between-the-tackles back if Bell keeps up this level of play.
Ray Rice saw the majority of the carries against Kansas City and continued to impress, totaling 108 yards on 19 carries. While Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain managed to poach three touchdowns, it shouldn't be a real cause for concern as Rice saw plenty of work inside the 10-yard line. Moreover, Rice barely missed the end zone on a 22-yard attempt early in the fourth quarter. Also keep in mind the Ravens were uncharacteristically pass-happy on Sunday so Rice could see an increase in his workload moving forward.
INJURY WATCH
Anthony Gonzalez strained a ligament in his right knee and is expected to miss two-to-six weeks. Austin Collie is the pickup here and should be a viable option in deeper leagues against the Dolphins secondary next week.
Donovan McNabb suffered a broken rib and is listed as 'doubtful' for Week 2 against New Orleans. Kevin Kolb will continue to fill in for McNabb as Michael Vick serves the second game of his two-game suspension. Kolb did a decent job filling in for McNabb, completing 7-of-11 passes for 23 yards, but the offense will certainly be less explosive with him under center.
The NFL season is finally here! We couldn't have asked for a better opener than last night's Steelers/Titans overtime game. Big Ben looked really good in the 4th quarter and OT not to mention the Super Bowl MVP grabbing 9 catches for more than 130 yards!
I recently went through the week 1 schedule and found a few matchups that I want to bring to your attention - a few good ones and a few bad ones. Take a look and adjust your roster accordingly.
Good matchups
QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. St. Louis - A back injury limited Hasselbeck to just seven games last season, but he enters 2009 with a clean bill of health. He also has a shiny new toy to play with in the form of WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who is coming off three consecutive seasons of at least 90 receptions. His arrival provides an instant upgrade to an array of weapons that already includes WR Nate Burleson and emerging TE John Carlson. Hasselbeck should find frequent success through the air against a Rams defense that is in transition under new head coach Steve Spagnuolo.
RB Cedric Benson vs. Denver - Denver's run defense was among the league's worst in 2008, allowing over 140 yards per game on the ground, and this year's version doesn't look to be much better. The Broncos won't provide much resistance for Benson, who experienced a career resurgence after signing with Cincinnati last year. Plus, the return of QB Carson Palmer should force defenses to be more respectful of the pass, clearing room inside for Benson to do his work.
TE Jeremy Shockey vs. Detroit - Opposing offenses routinely shredded the Lions last year, especially through the air. Detroit allowed big games to nearly every good tight end it faced: 87 yards to Greg Olsen, 66 yards and two TDs to Owen Daniels, 74 yards to Chris Cooley, 142 yards and a TD to Dallas Clark, you get the idea. The Saints have a bounty of pass-catching threats, but there should be enough opportunities to go around for Shockey to make some noise in Week 1.
Bad matchups
QB David Garrard at Indianapolis - In his last five games against the Colts, Garrard has averaged just 181 yards passing and went without a touchdown in three of the contests. Indianapolis surrendered a league-low six scores through the air last season and finished as the sixth-best pass defense. The Colts will be without former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, but his absence won't be enough to tilt the scales in Garrard's favor.
RB Clinton Portis at New York Giants - New York's defense battled numerous injuries last season, but still emerged as the ninth-best defense against the run. Now mostly healthy, the Giants will be one of the toughest defensive fronts to penetrate in 2009. Portis can't be looking forward to the matchup after recording just 106 rushing yards in two meetings last year. Plus, he may get pulled on third downs in favor of Ladell Betts, who the Redskins want to give a heavier workload this season.
WR Vincent Jackson at Oakland - There are a lot of things wrong in Oakland right now, but pass defense isn't one of them. Led by Pro Bowl cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, the Raiders boasted the league's 10th-best unit against the pass last year. Asomugha is battling a wrist injury, but expects to play and will likely spend much of the game matched up with Jackson, who has struggled playing in the Black Hole. In his last two games in Oakland, Jackson has a combined five catches for 65 yards.
I hope you have a fantastic first week of fantasy football!
The regular season gets underway tomorrow evening so before you set your lineups see below for my thoughts on a few risers and fallers. Check back with me on Friday as I look ahead to some key matchups for this weekend's games. I'd also like to wish each of you the best of luck this season!
Upgrades:
Cadillac Williams has been named the starting running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is quite a story given how his last two seasons ended with devastating knee injuries. Williams looked very good in training camp and performed well in the one preseason game he played in. While this does make Williams a legitimate upgrade, bear in mind that he will be part of running back platoon with Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham. In addition, Williams is a constant injury threat, so pick him up at your own risk.
No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford has been named the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions. Now we all know rookie quarterbacks generally struggle, so right off the bat you shouldn't get too excited about Stafford. Even though quarterbacks such as Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan played well last year as rookies, their stats (especially Flacco's) were not overwhelming. In addition, both Flacco and Ryan were drafted onto teams that had a fair amount of talent surrounding them. The Lions, of course, are coming off a winless season, and even though they have some decent skill-position players, including superb receiver Calvin Johnson, the offensive line remains a question. Stafford actually has a favorable Week 1 matchup against the generous Saints defense but some much tougher defenses come soon after.
Although already a starter, "Fast" Willie Parker cold get more carries than initially thought, at least to begin the season based on head coach Mike Tomlin's recent comments. Tomlin said Parker is the team's primary running back to start the season. This is due in large part to Rashard Mendenhall's somewhat pedestrian preseason. This doesn't mean that Mendenhall is still not a threat to take carries away from Parker, but now is the time to get Parker in your lineups with the prospect of heavy usage.
Downgrades:
Dwayne Bowe certainly seemed poised for a huge 2009 season given the trade of all-world tight end Tony Gonzalez and that the Chiefs new head coach (and offensive coordinator) is none other than former pass-happy Cardinals offensive wizard Todd Haley. While Bowe had a rough preseason in which he looked sluggish and dropped a lot of balls, the Chiefs are rather lacking in talent at wide receiver. So it is a huge surprise that Bowe is not the Chiefs No. 1 (or even No. 2) receiver according to the latest team depth chart, which has him listed as the No. 3 wide receiver. Now, it's not time to hit the panic button just yet as this could in part be a motivational ploy by Haley, but nevertheless it is not safe to start Bowe at this point given his shaky situation.
Although he is still crafty and quite the physical specimen, Terrell Owens has a lot of things working against him this season. T.O., who is now 35, left a hi-powered, warm-climate Dallas Cowboys offense for a weaker, cold-climate Buffalo Bills offense. Trent Edwards is probably the worst quarterback Owens has ever played with, the offensive line is a mess, the offensive coordinator was just fired right before the season starts and Owens is coming to a Bills team that already features a No. 1 wide receiver in Lee Evans. In addition, running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games of the 2009 season, and this will disrupt the balance of the offense. Owens will still get his share of targets, but it will be tough for him to attain the yardage and touchdown totals of years past, especially Week 1 vs. the crafty Patriots defense.
A sturdy workhorse most of his career, Jamal Lewis just has too much wear on his tires, and it showed this preseason as Lewis averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry and looked sluggish as he failed to display any of his famous powerful burst. Although Lewis reached 1,000 yards (barely) in 2008, he only scored four touchdowns and averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. Lewis will be playing for a Browns team that is entering 2009 shaky at nearly every offensive skill position, and he has promising rookie James Davis and returning backup Jerome Harrison breathing down his neck ready to steal away carries. There was even speculation at one point this preseason that Lewis might get cut. Although still the Browns starting running back, Lewis, who has to go up against the tough Vikings run defense Week 1, is just not what he used to be and looks to be in store for an even worse year in 2009 than 2008.
I recently mentioned that I received a new set of Michelin LTX M/S2 tires. Well, I've had them on my vehicle for a little more than a week now and wow! The ride quality is amazing and the road noise is very quiet. I honestly didn't know that tires made this much of a difference.
I don't know about you guys but I can't wait for the season to begin this Thursday! I'm sure by now most of you have completed your fantasy football drafts and hopefully you're feeling good about your team. Now the fun (and work) begins. Weighing your options between who to start/sit and who to pickup/drop becomes a reality and could mean the difference between winning and losing.
Below is the latest on a few RB scenarios to be aware of as you set your lineups for this week's games. Be sure to check back tomorrow for my list of upgrades and downgrades.
Pierre Thomas is still recovering from a sprained MCL, putting his status for the season opener in doubt. He estimated that his knee was at "65 percent" full strength on Friday, which doesn't inspire a whole lot of optimism regarding his Week 1 availability. Although it would be great if he's healthy for the opener, it's better that Thomas keep an eye on the big picture because a damaged MCL would severely affect his lateral movement and cutback abilities, two skills that are essential to a running back's success. Whatever his status for Week 1, Thomas' injury should not significantly affect his role as the Saints' featured back though, as Reggie Bush is more of a change of pace, and Mike Bell will be limited to goal-line touches. Thomas is still a top-15 back with top-10 potential when healthy.
James Davis is making a strong push to take the starting job from Jamal Lewis. Lewis was reportedly on the roster bubble leading up to Saturday, a clear indication that he's slowly but surely falling off the map. Even before this news broke, it was hard to believe Lewis had much mileage left in his legs with his career barometer at 2,399 carries. In the Browns' four preseason games, Lewis has been thoroughly outplayed by Davis, averaging 2.6 yards-per-carry to Davis' 7.5. If Davis continues his strong play through the first few regular season games, he would likely take over the starting running back job. You may consider picking up Davis if he's available in your league as he should be valued as a viable flex or RB3 option with RB2 upside.
Ray Rice has asserted himself as the featured back in the Ravens' backfield, finishing with 99 total yards on 18 touches in the team's third preseason game. Willis McGahee managed to score on a goal-line situation after two tries, while LeRon McClain was largely ineffective, finishing with just four total yards on three touches. The Ravens' backfield is starting to sort itself out, with Rice assuming the featured back responsibilities, McGahee challenging for goal-line duties, and McClain being the odd man out. With the Ravens a prohibitive favorite to lead the league in rush attempts, Rice should be valued as a top-20 back with top-12 upside. His role within the Ravens running scheme may be a bit up in the air from week-to-week but Rice deserves at least to be in the conversation with other young, upside backs like Darren McFadden and Knowshon Moreno.
The running back position is arguably the most important position for fantasy football rosters. I get a lot of people asking me questions about fantasy football -- friends, family, strangers -- and the overwhelming majority of the questions of late have to do with the RB position. So I thought I'd give you some advice on what I'm hearing and seeing around the league from that position.
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown will be part of a rotation -- Addai received most of the work with the first-team offense this preseason, but the Colts have made it clear, both in words and actions, that Brown will be a major part of the offense in 2009. The problem is predicting exactly how new coach Jim Caldwell will choose to spread the wealth between the two runners. A 60-40 split should be a fairly accurate estimate, with Addai getting more of the work initially due to his experience. Assuming the Colts run around 400 times this season (they've averaged 418 rushes over the last three years), even just 40 percent of those totes would give Brown 160 carries. If the split skews more toward 50-50 as Brown gains experience, that number should grow, and when you add in Brown's pass-catching ability he seems like a good bet to approach or surpass 200 touches. Addai may finish with better numbers than Brown this season, but it won't be by much, and Brown will come a lot cheaper.
Ray Rice seems to have the edge over Willis McGahee -- The Rice/McGahee tandem in Baltimore is another battling duo. Rice is going much higher in drafts, and rightfully so, given that he seems to be the strong favorite to get a bigger chunk of the between-the-20s work. He also began flashing his pass-catching skills in the latter half of 2008 and continued that trend in the preseason, snaring eight receptions in the third game. Rice is going to get plenty of touches, but don't sleep on McGahee, who carried the ball on five of the Ravens' six runs inside the five-yard line through three preseason games.
Chris Wells has a good showing, but Tim Hightower is still the starter -- Chris Wells received just three carries in Arizona's preseason finale as most of the key players played sparingly, but he made his mark the week prior with two rushing touchdowns against the Packers. He's putting some heat on starter Tim Hightower, although Hightower has been running with purpose this preseason (4.6 yards per carry after last year's abysmal 2.8) and Wells missed extensive time early on with an ankle injury. Look for Wells to be limited to 5-10 touches per game initially, a number which should increase once Wells' mental game catches up with his considerable physical talents.
Knowshon Moreno (knee) should be ready for season opener -- Moreno will likely play Week 1 against the Bengals, but after missing more than two weeks of practice, he may not be the starter. Therein lies the problem when evaluating the Denver running backs, as Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hillis and LaMont Jordan could all make a push for playing time. Buckhalter figures to start the opener, and possibly beyond, if he stays healthy. Hillis demonstrated last year that he can be an effective feature runner and has value as a pass-catcher. Moreno is clearly the upside play and should eventually emerge from that jumbled mess as the most productive runner of the group, but that could take weeks to happen. It's hard to say with any certainty how the Broncos will handle their running game, making this a messy situation for fantasy players.
Upgrades:
Brett Favre looked very comfortable in his second preseason game. He shook off the rust from his first preseason game (1-of-4) to put on a very efficient and effective performance Monday night vs. the Texans, completing 13-of-18 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. Favre is back playing in an offense almost identical to what he ran with Green Bay so he could be worthy of being a No. 1 fantasy QB if he can continue his strong recent play in the regular season. Two things to watch carefully with Favre, though, are the health of his throwing shoulder and ribs.
Jason Campbell stepped up in his latest preseason game after two subpar performances, including a 1-of-7 clunker versus Pittsburgh. Campbell got on track and looked sharp against New England as he completed 13-of-22 passes for 209 yards and also ran for a four-yard TD. Campbell has the potential to be a decent fantasy backup QB especially if Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas can step up as a solid No. 2 wide receiver and the offensive line stays healthy this year.
Byron Leftwich is an upgrade by default as he has been named the Buccaneers starting quarterback to begin the 2009 season. Leftwich has not looked great this preseason, but he looked better than Luke McCown or any of his other challengers. Given his historical performance, Leftwich has limited upside so he really is not worthy of major fantasy consideration at this point, but at least he will be playing behind a tough offensive line, which will help given his slow delivery and limited mobility.
Downgrades:
Derrick Ward had stud running back potential written all over him when he signed with the Buccaneers as a free agent this offseason following his 1,000-yard, two-touchdown effort with the Giants backing up Brandon Jacobs in 2008. However, his potential for 2009 has now gone downhill as the team has announced it will use him in a backfield committee with Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams. At best given the current situation, Ward might come close to duplicating his 2008 numbers.
Brandon Marshall has gone from a lock fantasy stud receiver to a serious fantasy risk this preseason thanks to attitude problems stemming from his unhappiness in Denver. First he complained about his contract and the way the team treats him, then he requested a trade and has now been suspended for the remainder of the preseason for detrimental behavior. This is a difficult situation that could get even worse unless some sort of resolution is reached soon. Also bear in mind that even if Marshall turns it around and stays with the Broncos in 2009 he will no longer enjoy throws from the now-departed accurate and laser-armed Jay Cutler.
After being selected in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft by the 49ers, Michael Crabtree looked like he was coming into a situation that would be conducive for some fantasy success at receiver even as a rookie. However, the team and Crabtree have yet to agree on a contract. The more time Crabtree misses, the greater the chance his rookie year will effectively be torpedoed before it even begins.
By the way, I just picked-up a set of Michelin tires for my personal vehicle. I learned how to think about tires in a new way and to weigh my options to find the best tire for my needs. I went with the all-new Michelin LTX M/S2 tires.
DeAngelo Williams has been the biggest mover in the first round over the past week, going from a fringe first-round pick in 12-team leagues to a fixture in the top six. I think the main reason for this has to do with the lingering health concerns surrounding his teammate Jonathan Stewart, who has been experiencing ongoing and nagging pain in his Achilles' tendon throughout the offseason. Stewart is likely to miss the entire preseason, and his status for the Panthers' season opener against the Eagles remains in doubt. With Stewart a big question mark this year, Williams has clear top-three upside and could arguably be drafted as high as second overall behind Adrian Peterson. Williams has dazzled during the preseason, breaking off a notable 25-yard touchdown run against the Dolphins where he shed five tacklers on his way to the end zone. Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew should hold their spots atop draft boards, but Williams should now be right in the mix with the likes of Matt Forte, Chris Johnson and Michael Turner. Keep in mind Williams will still have one of the league's best offensive lines in front of him.
The Tampa Bay ground game is likely to be a full-blown committee, which would not be good for Derrick Ward's fantasy prospects. Head coach Raheem Morris has revealed an ambitious plan to use at least three of his running backs extensively in games this season. It would entail that the starting running back play two series, followed by another back taking the next two series, capped by the third back playing a single series. The back who receives a single series would also be used as a situational back. Ward isn't even guaranteed the job as the starter in this scenario as it's Cadillac Williams, not Ward, who will be starting the Bucs' third preseason game. Ward had all the makings of a top-20 running back prior to this recent development. Considering the money the Bucs are paying Ward, and given that he's more versatile and productive than either Williams or Earnest Graham, this decision is puzzling, but Ward must be downgraded accordingly. He'd only get around 180 carries under this format, putting him right back into the same boat he was in last year with New York. He should be bumped down to the 25-30 range among backs, mixed in with the likes of Ahmad Bradshaw, Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones.
Chris "Beanie" Wells looked 'explosive and fast' during Monday's practice, according to coach Ken Whisenhunt. I hear it was Wells' most extensive on-field work since the team's mandatory minicamp ended in early May. He was finally able to showcase his talent and begin to close the gap between him and current starter Tim Hightower. Wells has been slipping further and further down draft boards due to concerns about the right ankle injury he suffered during the offseason as well as Hightower potentially cutting into a significant portion of his workload. In my opinion, the injury concerns are legitimate, and it's true that Hightower is the current starter, but Wells' demise has been greatly exaggerated. Beanie has shown the ability during his time at Ohio State to battle through injuries. Secondly, let's not forget that Hightower had a tough time as a starter last season, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry in his seven starts. Don't be mistaken -- Wells will get a significant amount of carries this season. His limited receiving abilities and the presence of Hightower in short-yardage situations will hurt his fantasy value, but 1,250 total yards and eight touchdowns is well within his reach.
Greetings football fans and welcome to my "Weekly Weigh-In" blog! Like you, I am eagerly anticipating the start of the NFL season and the chance to spend it with you. Although my career with the NFL is behind us, the memories of winning four Super Bowls, defending my teams and the honor of being inducted into the Hall of Fame, still motivate me to stay involved with the game.
I have always been inspired by the game of football and fantasy football allows me- as well as fans like you- to stay connected to the game. This year, I'm teaming up with legendary tire manufacturer Michelin to share my knowledge of the game through a weekly blog and even give you some tips on things I have learned about tires and how to choose the best one for your needs.
Fantasy football is all about weighing your options. I don't care if you have the best team in your league right now, if you don't make the necessary moves, start the correct players and tediously manage your roster for the next 17 weeks, you will not win your league.
I'll be providing you my perspective on how to weigh your options by sharing my thoughts on who's performing well, waiver wire pickups, what to expect in the coming week, a review of the previous week's games, injury updates and more. Basically, everything you need to know to roll over your competition.
Much like Michelin's all-new LTX M/S2 light-truck/SUV tire, you want to start players who have stopping power, longevity to go the distance and superior handling. Along with my weekly posts, I will select players that I think will dominate the upcoming week for each category. I'll post my weekly picks on Wednesdays.
In order to make it to the NFL you have to be competitive, but in order to be a Hall of Famer you have to be the most competitive! It's that win-or-go-home, competitive drive that motivates me to provide you with the finest fantasy football information to help you weigh your options. If you become a regular viewer of this blog and check in often, my goal is to help you tackle the competition in your league much like I used to tackle opponents on the field!
Good luck to you!
Ronnie Lott
