June 18, 2007

Draft Prep: Sleepers, breakouts and busts

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

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The difference between a Fantasy Football championship and the first-round pick in next year's draft could come down to finding the right breakout players and sleepers and avoiding potential busts.


Is it realistic to expect Marques Colston to duplicate his rookie numbers? (US Presswire)

Just look at last year. Were you lucky enough to draft Drew Brees or Philip Rivers? What about Frank Gore or Chester Taylor? Maybe you ended up with Javon Walker or Lee Evans?

Well, your Fantasy team was probably pretty good because those players did much better than expected.

Or your Fantasy team could have gone in a different direction. Did you draft Edgerrin James or Cadillac Williams? Kurt Warner or Trent Green? Joe Horn or Santana Moss? Those were some of the bigger busts.

It's a good idea to target certain players on Draft Day as guys who fall into the breakout and sleeper category, and if they land in your lap in the middle or late rounds snatch them up and hope you were right. You might also want to make a list of guys you wouldn't touch unless the price is right.

Because if you draft a bust early -- someone like LaMont Jordan or Kevin Jones -- it will make for a long season.

It takes some luck to avoid having your first-round pick become a dud, but here's a list of some potential breakouts, sleepers and busts to help you prepare for the upcoming draft.

Breakouts

Cedric Benson, RB, Bears
2006 stats: 647 yards rushing and six TDs; eight catches for 54 yards
Comment: Thomas Jones is now running for the Jets, so Benson becomes the starter for the Bears. Last year the two shared carries and rushed for a combined 1,857 yards and 12 touchdowns. Benson should be a candidate for 1,300 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. He averaged about 11 carries a game last year, so expect close to 25 carries a game this year and consider him a solid No. 2 Fantasy RB.

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles
2006 stats: 46 catches for 816 yards and eight TDs
Comment: Brown is entering his third year in the NFL, which is typically the breakout season for standout wide receivers. Some examples include Roy Williams, Javon Walker, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens and Steve Smith -- and Brown has the potential to join that group. If Donovan McNabb (knee) is able to start the season as expected, Brown will thrive. Consider Brown a No. 2 Fantasy WR with room to grow.

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos
2006 stats: 1,001 yards passing, nine TDs and five INTs; 18 yards rushing
Comment: Cutler started the final five games last season and showed why the Broncos traded up to draft him in the first round. He has the potential to be a star and a No. 1 Fantasy QB. Cutler has a plethora of weapons with Javon Walker, Rod Smith, Brandon Stokley, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Oh yeah, and Travis Henry is there, too.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
2006 stats: 20 catches for 265 yards and three TDs
Comment: Davis showed his skills after coming back from a broken leg with 14 catches for 217 yards and two touchdowns in the final five games last year. He hopes to pick up where he left off this year, and he should do just fine. QB Alex Smith is expected to improve this season, and Davis should benefit from the addition of WR Darrell Jackson. Davis has the potential to be one of the best tight ends in Fantasy Football.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants
2006 stats: 423 yards rushing and nine TDs; 11 catches for 149 yards
Comment: Jacobs did well as a short-yardage back last year with Tiki Barber as the starter. With Barber retired, Jacobs will see an increase in carries, and he should excel. At 6-foot-4, 264 pounds, Jacobs will be hard to tackle. His yardage total will definitely improve with the extra carries, and his touchdown total should also go up. Jacobs should be used as a No. 2 Fantasy RB and be drafted around the third round.

Sleepers

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills
2006 stats: Not in NFL
Comment: Adrian Peterson was the first rookie RB drafted, but Lynch will be in the better situation. Peterson will have to share carries with Chester Taylor in Minnesota, but Lynch appears to be the starter in Buffalo and only has to worry about Anthony Thomas. During the Bills final minicamp in June, Lynch was working with the first team and is trying to improve his receiving skills. Consider him a No. 2 Fantasy RB. He's looking that good already.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers
2006 stats: 27 catches for 453 yards and six TDs
Comment: In case you didn't know, Jackson is now the No. 1 WR in San Diego. He is also entering his third year in the NFL, which is typically the breakout year for a good WR, which Jackson is. With teams focusing on LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, expect new coach Norv Turner to increase the passes thrown to Jackson, who is a big target at 6-foot-5, 241 pounds. Consider Jackson a No. 3 Fantasy WR with a lot of upside.

David Martin, TE, Dolphins
2006 stats: 21 catches for 198 yards and two TDs
Comment: The Dolphins let Randy McMichael go because Martin has the potential to be a solid TE. He is now playing for a coach in Cam Cameron who likes to utilize the tight end, which he did in San Diego with Antonio Gates. And he has a QB in Trent Green who thrived playing with Tony Gonzalez in Kansas City. The Dolphins don't have too many weapons, so Martin is someone who could be targeted a lot. Consider him a No. 2 Fantasy TE to start the season with a chance to be a starter down the road.

Vernand Morency, RB, Packers
2006 stats: 434 yards rushing and two TDs; 17 catches for 118 yards
Comment: Twice last year Morency had two games with over 10 carries, and he averaged 100 yards in those two games. He should get plenty of opportunities to carry the ball this year with Ahman Green now in Houston. Morency will compete with rookie Brandon Jackson for the starting job, but Morency has the inside edge. He should be considered a No. 3 Fantasy RB with the chance to be in your starting lineup before the year ends.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers
2006 stats: 2,890 yards passing, 16 TDs and 16 INTs; 147 yards rushing and two TDs
Comment: This could be the year Smith either shines or is considered a bust. My guess is he shines because of the talent he has around him. With the addition of Darrell Jackson from Seattle, Smith now has a solid WR, TE (Vernon Davis) and RB (Frank Gore). He also can make plays with his legs, which adds to his value. Draft him as a No. 2 Fantasy QB, but don't be surprised if you end up starting him for a couple of weeks.

Busts

Marques Colston, WR, Saints
2006 stats: 70 catches for 1,038 yards and eight TDs
Comment: Coltson had one of the best rookie seasons for a WR in the history of the NFL last year, but he has to live up to unrealistic expectations of duplicating that performance. And he now assumes the role of No. 1 WR for New Orleans with no proven WR playing across from him. He still has a stud QB in Drew Brees and proved he could be successful, but don't be surprised when his numbers slip this year.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
2006 stats: 941 yards rushing and 13 TDs; 46 catches for 436 yards and two TDs
Comment: Jones-Drew had an outstanding rookie season last year, all while sharing carries with Fred Taylor. He will share carries with Taylor again this year, but Greg Jones is now in the fold after missing last year with a knee injury. Jones is expected to get the short-yardage touches, so Jones-Drew could lose some touchdowns. He will still be able to produce, but consider him more of a No. 3 Fantasy RB than a No. 2 option.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants
2006 stats: 3,244 yards passing, 24 TDs and 18 INTs; 21 yards rushing
Comment: Manning has now posted back-to-back years with 24 touchdown passes. But the loss of Tiki Barber, the injury status of Amani Toomer (knee) and a diminished offensive line will hurt Manning this year. Brandon Jacobs should do well in Barber's absence, but Barber was a huge factor in the passing game. If you draft Manning as a No. 2 Fantasy QB, he will be fine, but don't count on him as a solid starter.

Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings
2006 stats: 1,216 yards and six TDs; 42 catches for 288 yards
Comment: Taylor had a breakthrough season last year in his first as a starter. But he started to break down as the season went on, and the Vikings decided to draft Adrian Peterson this year. Taylor will still get plenty of carries, but he goes from a No. 2 Fantasy RB to a No. 3 or 4 option now. He still has the potential to help your Fantasy team, but because of Peterson his value will take a tremendous hit.

Jason Witten, TE, Dallas
2006 stats: 64 catches for 754 yards and one TD
Comment: Witten has plenty of name recognition, which will attract Fantasy users to draft him earlier than he should go. The addition of Terrell Owens last year dropped Witten from six touchdowns in each of the previous two years to one. Witten is, at best, the third option in the passing game behind Owens and Terry Glenn, but he must compete with Patrick Crayton and Marion Barber also. You'd be better off using Witten as a No. 2 Fantasy TE and a potential spot starter.

Do you have a draft question for one of our experts? You can e-mail us your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.

Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM

News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.

Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM

News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM

News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.

Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.

Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."

Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

Hill wants return to Lions
Shaun Hill, QB, DET
11:19 AM

News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions backup QB Shaun Hill would like to return to Detroit in 2012. The Lions have told Hill, his representatives and others that they want him back as the primary backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill also wants to return to Detroit -- and might even take a slight discount to do so. The 32-year-old appeared in two games last year and attempted just three passes, but he made 10 starts in 2010, when Stafford missed 13 games with two separated throwing shoulders.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Hill, but unless he signs with a team and earns a starting job he would not be worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Cotchery wants return to Steelers
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, PIT
11:15 AM

News: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery, who is an impending free agent, would like to return to Pittsburgh in 2012. “In exit meetings (with the Steelers), it was pretty much stated that they were very pleased with me, who I was on the field and off the field,” Cotchery said. “I’m everything that they thought I would be, so from their standpoint, they definitely would want me back. And I expressed the same desire, so we’ll see what happens.”

Analysis: Cotchery was coming off offseason back surgery last season and then missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. He finished with 16 catches for 237 yards, and he caught a 31-yard touchdown pass to force overtime against the Broncos in the wild-card playoff game. Keep an eye on what happens with Cotchery, but he has minimal Fantasy value heading into the year. He should not be drafted in most formats.

Kolb plans to be Cardinals starter
Cardinals, TQB ARI,
11:06 AM

News: The Arizona Republic reports that Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb is not worried about losing his job heading into 2012 with the speculation the team could sign Peyton Manning if he becomes a free agent. "I know how the NFL works," Kolb said, "anything is possible. I just try to keep my mind clear and do what I can on my end. I plan on having a great year and being a Cardinal for a long time." Kolb is due a $7 million bonus if he's on the roster March 17, and said "every indication on my end shows me that I'll be there." Kolb's first season with the Cardinals was hampered by a foot injury and concussion. He missed four games because of the foot and the last three games of the season with the concussion. "I feel good," Kolb said. "I'd say it took three to four weeks after the season was over to not have any symptoms. Once my mind cleared, I got back to working out."

Analysis: Kolb struggled in his first year with the Cardinals in 2011, and he was outplayed by John Skelton for most of the year. Kolb passed for 1,955 passing yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, but he will likely be the starter in 2012 if the team doesn't bring in Manning. Keep an eye on what happens, but Kolb is only worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy QB in deeper leagues if he remains the starter with the Cardinals.

Broncos could franchise Prater
Matt Prater, K, DEN
10:54 AM

News: The Denver Post reports that the Broncos could use the franchise tag on impending free agent kicker Matt Prater. The projected salary for a franchised kicker this year is less than $2.6 million — down 19 percent from $3.176 million in 2011. Prater said near season's end that after five seasons of kicking on year-to-year deals, he was hoping free agency would bring him the security of a long-term contract. Prater drew a $1.835 million salary as a restricted free agent in 2011, when he had four walkoff field goals for wins, including successful overtime kicks of 52 yards at Miami and 51 yards against the Bears.

Analysis: Prater had a solid year in 2011. He was 19 of 25 on field goals and made all 30 extra points. Keep an eye on what happens with him this offseason, but he could be worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues if he remains with the Broncos.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings