Draft Prep: Scouting the Class of '07
By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow JameyFollow CBS Fantasy Football
The 2006 rookie class was impressive and produced several players who will be Fantasy stars for years to come. It might be one of the best drafts in recent memory.
Just look at the players: Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Vernon Davis, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Laurence Maroney, Santonio Holmes, DeAngelo Williams and Joseph Addai. And those were just the guys drafted in the first round.
|
|
| It's unlikely Brady Quinn will have a Fantasy impact in 2007. (US Presswire) |
Heading into last year, the rookies targeted by Fantasy owners were obvious. Bush, Young, Addai, Maroney and Williams were some of the higher picked rookies, but two of the best went undrafted in Jones-Drew and Colston. With rookies, sometimes a lesser-known guy will surprise you.
The 2007 rookie class has some outstanding talent with players who could make an immediate Fantasy impact. The key is figuring out when to draft a rookie because you want a sleeper, not a bust.
The thing you want to look at with rookies is the potential for significant playing time right away. Just because JaMarcus Russell was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft doesn't mean he's going to be a good Fantasy quarterback this year.
The plan in Oakland is to let Russell compete for the starting job, but he likely will begin the season on the bench. Now that doesn't mean avoid drafting Russell, but don't expect him to be a Fantasy stud early in the year. Think of him like what happened with Young last year when he started to become Fantasy relevant toward the middle of the season.
The rookies that Fantasy owners should target are Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson and Anthony Gonzalez. These players should get plenty of opportunities to make plays, but they are not alone.
Here are 12 rookies worth owning this season, some of whom we spoke with at the NFL Rookie Symposium in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., on June 26.
| One on One |
 Richard w/ JaMarcus Russell Richard w/ Dwayne Jarrett Eisenberg w/ Dwayne Bowe Eisenberg w/ Marshawn Lynch |
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City
2007 projections: 36 catches for 464 yards and four touchdowns
Comment: Bowe has an opportunity to start opposite Eddie Kennison. He will be the No. 4 option in the offense behind Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and Kennison, but he should still see a few passes each game. Brodie Croyle is expected to be the new quarterback in Kansas City, which could bode well for Bowe. Consider him a No. 4 Fantasy WR heading into the season.
Quote: "My expectations are to go in and play right away. Whether it's starting or getting in as a backup role, as long as I'm contributing to the team, anything is possible. Right now I just want to get in there and play. I love to score touchdowns." -- Bowe told CBS SportsLine.com at the NFL rookie symposium about getting an opportunity to be a starting wide receiver.
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis
2007 projections: 39 catches for 436 yards and five touchdowns
Comment: In 2004, Brandon Stokley played the slot receiver for the Colts and caught 68 passes for 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns. Gonzalez was drafted to play that role, and he's already watching tape of Stokley from that season. He should get plenty of passes thrown his way with teams focusing on Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Consider Gonzalez a No. 4 Fantasy WR with plenty of upside.
Quote: "Any time you get to play with somebody who's as talented and well respected as Peyton Manning is something you're excited about. I couldn't ask for a better situation on a lot of levels. It's going to be fun." -- Gonzalez told CBS SportsLine.com at the NFL rookie symposium about his new starting quarterback.
Chris Henry, RB, Tennessee
2007 projections: 749 yards rushing and four touchdowns and 19 catches for 134 yards and one touchdown
Comment: Henry's value took a hit with the Titans decision to bring back Chris Brown. Henry will now have to compete with Brown and LenDale White for the starting job. Still, Henry is expected to get his share of carries and will probably see the most playing time of the three running backs. Consider him a No. 3 Fantasy RB and hope he's named the starter during training camp.
Quote: "I think anybody has a lot to prove coming onto a new ballclub as a rookie. They took me early, but if I had gone undrafted I still would be working as hard as I am now." -- Henry told the Tennessean about what he has to prove this season.
| Which rookie will have the biggest Fantasy impact in 2007? | |
| Dave Richard | |
 A running back in Buffalo, another one in Minnesota and a pair of big-bodied receivers in Kansas City and Carolina will make strides this year, but their production won't be nearly as impressive as that of Calvin Johnson's in Detroit. Johnson is a physical specimen at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds. He has amazing speed for a guy his size and doesn't easily lose his focus when he's on the field. Teams looking to cover him with a 5-foot-11 cornerback with average strength are going to have trouble. That is enough to put him at the top of the list of potential rookies to dominate this year, but when you consider where he'll play, he's a slam dunk. Johnson will see less than the best coverage because established super-stud Roy Williams will be playing on the other side of the field in Mike Martz's pass-heavy, creative offense in Detroit, where the Lions are guaranteed eight games in perfect conditions (nine if you count their trip to Minnesota; 10 if you count their trip to Arizona). The only way Johnson will be held back is if there aren't enough balls to go around between him, Williams, Mike Furrey and the Lions' underrated rushing attack. And it only helps that Detroit's defense is going to be soft, forcing the offense to play from behind a more often than not. | |
| Jamey Eisenberg | |
 Detroit's Calvin Johnson is going to be a stud this season. He plays in a great offense and has the skills to succeed. But he's only going to be the second-best rookie in 2007. That's because of Buffalo's Marshawn Lynch. The running back enters the season as the highest-rated rookie on our rankings for a reason. He's going to get more touches than any other rookie, and starting running backs are always more valuable than receivers. We have Lynch, who is expected to replace the departed Willis McGahee, projected to run for 1,266 yards and five touchdowns and 29 catches for 212 yards and one touchdown. Compare that to Johnson, who is expected to catch 58 passes for 790 yards and six touchdowns. You do the math -- Lynch is better. The best comparison is two of last year's top rookies, Maurice Jones-Drew and Marques Colston. Jones-Drew had 941 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns and 46 catches for 436 yards and two touchdowns. Colston, meanwhile, had 70 catches for 1,038 yards and eight touchdowns. Jones-Drew was by far the better rookie, and Lynch will be also. You'll want to draft Lynch somewhere in the third or fourth round of your Fantasy league, while Johnson should go in round six or seven. | |
Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay
2007 projections: 651 yards rushing and four touchdowns and eight catches for 56 yards
Comment: Ahman Green is gone, so Jackson will enter training camp with the chance to compete for the starting job with Vernand Morency. Morency has the inside edge, but expect Jackson to still get plenty of carries since Morency has never been a full-time starter in the NFL. Consider Jackson a No. 4 Fantasy RB heading into the season, but don't be surprised if his value improves as the year goes on.
Quote: "That's every guy's outlook, to become the No. 1 guy at his position. Yes, I want to be the No. 1 guy. Can I say I'm the No. 1 guy right now? No. But I want to, and I know it's going to take a lot of hard work because we've got four or five other running backs that are great and they want to do the same thing -- they want to start. I know it's going to be a lot of competition out there." -- Jackson told the Associated Press about getting an opportunity to be the starting running back.
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Carolina
2007 projections: 49 catches for 609 yards and four touchdowns
Comment: The Panthers let Keyshawn Johnson go following the draft because they believe Jarrett has the chance to be a quality wide receiver. He is expected to start opposite Steve Smith, and that's a benefit since Smith draws plenty of attention from opposing defenses. Consider Jarrett a No. 4 Fantasy WR and hope he can replace Johnson, who had 70 catches for 815 yards and four touchdowns last year.
Quote: "I'm going to work my way to get on. You have to start somewhere. I'm going to try to contribute as much as I can." -- Jarrett told the Carolina Panthers team website about his chances to be a starting wide receiver.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit
2007 projections: 58 catches for 790 yards and six touchdowns
Comment: Johnson has a chance to be a monster this season because of the offense he plays in. Like any Mike Martz offense, the Lions are going to throw the ball all over the field, and Johnson has the speed, size (6-foot-4) and leaping ability to thrive. He is surrounded by talent in Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, Jon Kitna, Tatum Bell and Kevin Jones, so expect Johnson to shine. Consider Johnson a No. 3 Fantasy WR.
Quote: "Calvin is going to come in and contribute. I expect a big year from him. There's not many rookie wide receivers that come in like Randy Moss and make an immediate impact. But if anyone can, it's Calvin." -- Fellow Detroit Lions receiver Roy Williams told CBS SportsLine.com in an interview.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo
2007 projections: 1,266 yards rushing and five touchdowns and 29 catches for 212 yards and one touchdown
Comment: Lynch will compete with Anthony Thomas for the chance to replace the departed Willis McGahee. Lynch is already working with the first team in minicamp, so that's a good sign he will be the starter. He is a complete running back and has the skills to make plays running the ball and catching it. Consider him a No. 2 Fantasy RB and the highest rookie on our rankings.
Quote: "I do have that expectation (to start). I don't feel any pressure. I love the opportunity. I'm a competitor. That's what I do." -- Lynch told CBS SportsLine.com at the NFL rookie symposium about getting an opportunity to be the starting running back.
Zach Miller, TE, Oakland
2007 projections: 25 catches for 359 yards and three touchdowns
Comment: Miller is expected to compete with Courtney Anderson for the starting spot in Oakland, but Miller has more upside and should win the job. He will probably not be drafted in any Fantasy league this year, but you should consider him like Owen Daniels a year ago. Miller will be worth picking up at some point this season as a bye-week replacement.
Quote: "I definitely want to be a complete tight end. I want to bring just as much to the running game as I do for the passing game. I have a lot of high expectations for myself. I expect to do well. I want to play, and that's my goal." -- Miller told CBS SportsLine.com at the NFL rookie symposium about his thoughts on 2007.
Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago
2007 projections: 30 catches for 373 yards and three touchdowns
Comment: Desmond Clark had a standout season last year for the Bears with 45 catches for 626 yards and six touchdowns, but now Olsen will try and take his job. Olsen is a receiving threat, and the Bears like to throw to the tight end. Consider Olsen a No. 2 Fantasy TE and a possible starter during the season.
Quote: "I feel comfortable. I don't think I'm as comfortable as some of the vets. But we're learning. All the young guys are doing our best to learn as fast as we can and just get out there and be able to fill in when the other guys go out and try to do the best we can." -- Olsen told the Chicago Bears team website about how his offseason has progressed.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota
2007 projections: 1,036 yards rushing and six touchdowns and 11 catches for 89 yards
Comment: The only downside to Peterson is that Chester Taylor will probably remain the starter. Peterson will still get plenty of carries, but he won't get the majority as long as Taylor remains healthy. Peterson plays behind a stellar offensive line and has a ton of potential. Consider him a No. 2 Fantasy RB and one of the best keepers of the rookie class.
Quote: "The ultimate goal is to be rookie of the year. I have a lot of personal goals I want to set." -- Peterson told CBS SportsLine.com at the NFL rookie symposium about his thoughts on 2007.
Brady Quinn, QB, Cleveland
2007 projections: 79 yards passing, one interception and 45 yards rushing
Comment: Quinn should not be drafted in any seasonal Fantasy league this year, but he has potential down the road as a keeper. And he should get on the field toward the end of the season with the Browns not expected to be very good. With Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson his main competition, Quinn has an opportunity to prove himself, but it might not happen any time soon.
Quote: "I think that's the goal you set out for yourself, especially when you're in a position of competition. You have to aim to play, you have to aim to be that guy. If not, you're not going to be pushing the rest of the quarterbacks as best you can." -- Quinn told CBS SportsLine.com at the NFL rookie symposium about getting an opportunity to be the starting quarterback.
JaMarcus Russell, QB, Oakland
2007 projections: 1,143 yards passing, six touchdowns, four interceptions and 21 yards rushing
Comment: When trying to make a comparison for Russell, the obvious choice is Vince Young. Last year, Young turned into a Fantasy starter in the middle of the season, and Russell has the potential to do the same thing. Josh McCown is expected to start for the Raiders, but Russell wasn't drafted to sit on the bench. Consider him a No. 3 Fantasy QB heading into the season with a chance to help as the season goes on.
Quote: "That's not an issue yet. Anything I can do to help my team, I'm all for it. When the time comes, I'll be ready." -- Russell told CBS SportsLine.com at the NFL rookie symposium about getting an opportunity to be the starting quarterback.
Do you have a draft question for one of our experts? You can e-mail us your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.
