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Dave Richard

Four Downs: Bengals-Browns steal the show

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Just for giggles, let's take a look at part of what I expected to see in the Bengals-Browns Week 2 matchup:

... This is going to be a whitewashing for the Bengals. Derek Anderson is winless in his three career starts and faces a surprisingly good defense in the Bengals. If you need a DST this week, the Bengals are it. Jamal Lewis might be the Browns' only usable Fantasy starter. For the Bengals, the only options you shouldn't start are backups Kenny Watson and Tab Perry, even though one or both of them could post as many as 50 total yards.

So at least we were half right. As expected, the Bengals' stars delivered great stats -- including six touchdown passes for Carson Palmer!

Jamal Lewis racked up 216 yards on the ground and a TD. (US Presswire)  
Jamal Lewis racked up 216 yards on the ground and a TD. (US Presswire)  
But the Browns stole the show. After being down 7-0 early, Cleveland chiseled their way back into the lead in the second quarter with a Joe Jurevicius touchdown. From there, the game was like a heavyweight fight (or a battle between Batman and The Joker, depending on your frame of reference for the following noises).

T.J. Houshmandzadeh with a 23-yard touchdown. Bam!

Joe Jurevicius with a nine-yard grab and his second TD of the game. Whack!

Chad Johnson with a 22-yard haul in the end zone. Ka-pow!

Kellen Winslow hauls in a 25-yard pass. Slam!

Shayne Graham with a field goal. OK, that's more like a slap.

But then Braylon Edwards reeled in a 34-yard pass. Thwap!

Ocho Cinco then scored on a 14-yard touchdown and did his leap into the beer-tossing Dawg Pound. Splash!

Lewis answered that with an improbable 66-yard touchdown scamper. Wha?!

Lewis' long run was answered by Houshmandzadeh's second score of the game, a five-yard catch. Oof!

Then Braylon Edwards had a 37-yard touchdown. Oweeee! (Can you tell I'm running out of noises?)

Phil Dawson added a field goal to pad the Browns' lead. Crickets.

A Glenn Holt 7-yard score was the last swing the Bengals connected on, but it was Leigh Bodden's interception with 21 seconds left that was the KO.

Ultimately, neither defense showed up in the game (can you tell by the 96 total points or 1,085 total yards?). I think we got a look at the real Cincinnati defense in this one, especially considering Jamal Lewis' 216 yards rushing. And the Browns defense continued to be about as threatening as a puppy.

But the question I'm going to be asked the most this week: Is Derek Anderson worth a pick up in Fantasy play? Well, he's only played in six NFL games, and his five touchdowns on Sunday is one shy of his career total coming into Week 2. And before Sunday, he had topped 250 yards once and 200 yards twice. And he has 10 interceptions over his career. So while his 328-yard, five-touchdown game against the Bengals is impressive, he's probably not going to save your Fantasy team if you've been banking on Drew Brees or Matt Hasselbeck.

As for Palmer ... he has eight touchdowns in two games. He has as many as TD machines Peyton Manning and Jon Kitna -- combined. He's your early leader for Fantasy MVP.

First down

Already, the 2007 season has spawned some surprise teams.

The 49ers, Steelers, Lions, Broncos, Packers and -- get this -- the Texans are all 2-0. Not one of these clubs made the playoffs last season. Other teams that qualified for the playoffs, like Indianapolis, are also 2-0.

So, who are the Fantasy studs leading the way?

As you may imagine, the Steelers are still led by Willie Parker, although Ben Roethlisberger's five TDs in two games is a big surprise. The Broncos have received two big games from Travis Henry but aren't dominating defensively as we first thought they would.

But what about Houston? After running over a has-been Chiefs team, they marched into Carolina, spotted the Panthers a 14-point lead and then whipped them thanks to forcing some turnovers and halting the Panthers' running game. Through two games, the Chiefs and Panthers -- both run-oriented teams -- have totaled 138 rush yards against the Texans' front seven. So there's a Fantasy sleeper to consider, the Texans DST. And if they're stopping the run, then it's Ahman Green getting the time to run the ball. He's a solid No. 3 Fantasy RB, at least. Oh, and there's that Andre Johnson fellow (14 catches for 262 yards and three TDs so far).

The Niners' defense is their story too, although they're sort of like Denver in that they've clawed to stay in games and then pulled out wins in the end. They're proof that a solid defense and an excellent ground attack (thank you Frank Gore) are two huge keys to victory. The Lions beat up on the Raiders last week and survived the Vikings in Week 2. I don't know if they can keep winning, but they've got the offense that's making Fantasy owners salivate. Just you wait -- if Kevin Jones comes back as strong as the club is expecting, they're going to be the second-best offense in the NFC. But Green Bay is seemingly doing it with smoke and mirrors. No Packers RB has gone over 50 yards rushing in a game this season, and the team is otherwise capitalizing on turnovers and sustaining long drives for touchdowns.

Interestingly enough, all of these teams have tests in Week 3: The Broncos host the Jekyll-and-Hyde Jaguars, the Packers host the Chargers, the Lions play at the Eagles, the Niners and Steelers play each other in Pittsburgh and the Texans host the 2-0 Super Bowl champion Colts.

Second down

So who's the biggest surprise at 0-2? How about the Saints, who were smashed again, but this time by the Buccaneers.

What is going on with New Orleans? Let's start on defense, where for the second week in a row they were torched through the air, although this time it was by Jeff Garcia, not Peyton Manning. Joey Galloway had some big catches and even Ike Hilliard had a 41-yard catch. That Saints secondary is getting beat like a scout team.

When that happens, it leaves the offense one-dimensional, and it doesn't help that your offense turns the ball over (two this week, five on the season -- and four of them belong to Brees). The most telling stat of all: Deuce McAllister has 10 carries in each of his first two games. He averaged 16 per game last regular season. Perhaps they need to get back to him.

Next week, the Saints get a visit at home from the Titans, then have a bye, the Panthers at home and a road game against Seattle. Before the season, these were three games we expected them to win. Now, there's no telling what will happen. Fantasy owners should remain patient with their stars and hope that Sean Payton can get this offense back on the right track.

Third down

We warned you about Larry Johnson. We told you on TV, we told you on our web site. Now, if you own him, you know why.

Through two games, LJ has 98 rush yards, 76 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. And on top of that, he didn't finish his Week 2 game.

Now, the bad news ...

Johnson's next three games are vs. Minnesota (great run defense), at San Diego (great run defense) and vs. Jacksonville (prety good run defense). It is conceivable that Johnson won't post a big Fantasy game until Week 6 when the Chiefs host the Bengals. How many Fantasy owners are going to be patient, and how many are going to cut bait on Johnson?

It bears watching in the weeks to come.

Fourth down

If I had to make three waiver pickups based on this week's games, they would be ...

DeShawn Wynn, RB, Green Bay: I'm not a huge fan of Wynn -- he had 12 yards on nine carries before breaking off a 38-yard run -- but it appears that he's going to be a part of the Packers' RB rotation, at least until Vernand Morency comes back. Who knows when that will be. I'd pick him up in all leagues just for depth on the bench.

Roydell Williams, WR, Tennessee: Starting to develop as a playmaker for a team that desperately needs one at receiver. He scored in the game, but it's his Cris Carter-like sideline lean-in catch that really caught my eye. If you have an underachieving receiver on your bench, replace him with Williams.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City: A muscular, athletic talent that will eventually give the Chiefs a go-to threat over the middle and down the sideline. He would have had two scores at Chicago if not for a penalty on one of them. Give him a little more time and only pick him up if you have the roster space right now, or if you're in a keeper league.

Do you have a question or comment for Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Four Downs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Brandon Jacobs
Jacobs wants return to Giants
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
10:48 AM
News: The New York Daily News reports that Giants RB Brandon Jacobs is willing to take a pay cut to remain with the team in 2012. It's something Jacobs did prior to this season, and he would like to remain with the Giants again. “Like I said the last time: As long as it’s fair,” Jacobs said. “There’s something that can be done. I do put a lot of hard work and dedication into what I do as well. But as long as it’s fair, things can happen.” Jacobs is due $4.9 million in 2012 and is coming off a disappointing 571-yard season. He’s due $500,000 of that on March 17 — just four days after the free-agent market opens — and he’ll likely be cut by that date if he hasn’t agreed to a restructured deal. Jacobs had his 2011 salary slashed by $1.75 million last August — from $4.65 million to $2.9 million — before the Giants agreed not to cut him. But while he’s “absolutely” willing to negotiate again now, he’s not sure if the Giants are. So far, a week after the Super Bowl and with only a month before free agency opens, he said neither he nor his agent has heard a word from the team.
Analysis: We'll see what happens with Jacobs and where he ends up playing in 2012, but he is not a starting Fantasy option in the majority of leagues. Plan on drafting Jacobs with a late-round pick as long as he's back with the Giants and playing behind Ahmad Bradshaw once again.

Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
2/13/2012
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
2/13/2012
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
2/13/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
2/13/2012
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
2/13/2012
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
2/13/2012
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

 
 
 
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