Making plans for the Fantasy playoffs
By David Gonos | Senior Fantasy Writer
Assuming you are near the top half of your standings, looking at how you can strengthen your team rather than overhaul it in hopes of climbing into the top six, this column is for you.
Most Fantasy Football leagues will hold their playoffs in the three-week period of Weeks 14-16. So it's prudent to look ahead to that time span to see which teams/Fantasy players will be up against horrible (or elite) defenses.
While you don't want to bail on your superstars to load up on players with soft playoff games (remember, you still have to make the playoffs), you can certainly trade depth with bad matchups for players with good matchups. Since most trades are viewed by other owners with a What-have-you-done-for-me-lately perspective, you'll be proactive, which means trades are more likely to happen since you both are looking at different values.
Let's first look at some teams/players that have great matchups in Weeks 14-16. The stats recited are through Week 9, but realize that four teams have played nine games (and are on a bye in Week 10), while all others have played just eight games.
| NFL Schedules during the Fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16) | ||||||||
| Three-week schedule | Total Defense | Def. Averages | ||||||
| Team | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Total Def Rk | Ave. Pts/G | Ave. Yds/G | Passing Defenses | Rushing Defenses |
| Seattle | Ari | Car | Bal | 8.7 | 20.5 | 303 | 11.0 | 13.7 |
| Jacksonville | Car | Pit | Oak | 10.3 | 18.1 | 299 | 7.0 | 18.0 |
| Indianapolis | Bal | Oak | Hou | 11.3 | 22.3 | 310 | 8.3 | 18.0 |
| Atlanta | NO | TB | Ari | 12.0 | 20.3 | 314 | 12.0 | 15.0 |
| Miami | Buf | Bal | NE | 12.0 | 18.5 | 306 | 14.7 | 9.3 |
| Philadelphia | NYG | Dal | NO | 12.0 | 21.7 | 313 | 17.7 | 8.7 |
| Houston | TB | Den | Ind | 12.3 | 20.1 | 308 | 4.3 | 21.3 |
| N.Y. Jets | Cle | NE | Ten | 12.7 | 20.3 | 319 | 16.3 | 11.3 |
| New Orleans | Atl | Ari | Phi | 13.0 | 20.8 | 321 | 14.3 | 16.0 |
| Oakland | GB | Ind | Jac | 13.3 | 17.5 | 316 | 16.3 | 13.0 |
| Chicago | Was | Min | GB | 14.3 | 19.0 | 323 | 23.0 | 6.3 |
| St. Louis | Cin | GB | Pit | 14.3 | 20.2 | 316 | 16.3 | 13.3 |
| Baltimore | Ind | Mia | Sea | 15.0 | 21.3 | 321 | 11.3 | 19.7 |
| Detroit | Dal | SD | KC | 15.3 | 20.2 | 325 | 20.0 | 13.7 |
| Pittsburgh | NE | Jac | StL | 15.7 | 20.9 | 322 | 14.7 | 15.7 |
| Carolina | Jac | Sea | Dal | 16.3 | 19.5 | 329 | 22.7 | 11.3 |
| N.Y. Giants | Phi | Was | Buf | 17.0 | 19.6 | 333 | 22.7 | 11.7 |
| Denver | KC | Hou | SD | 17.7 | 21.3 | 335 | 18.0 | 19.0 |
| Tampa Bay | Hou | Atl | SF | 17.7 | 23.1 | 333 | 13.3 | 22.7 |
| Dallas | Det | Phi | Car | 18.0 | 20.9 | 335 | 22.3 | 13.0 |
| New England | Pit | NYJ | Mia | 18.0 | 22.7 | 322 | 10.0 | 21.3 |
| Arizona | Sea | NO | Atl | 18.7 | 20.6 | 338 | 22.3 | 15.3 |
| Kansas City | Den | Ten | Det | 18.7 | 22.3 | 329 | 16.7 | 15.0 |
| San Diego | Ten | Det | Den | 18.7 | 22.3 | 329 | 16.7 | 15.0 |
| Washington | Chi | NYG | Min | 18.7 | 20.6 | 334 | 20.7 | 13.0 |
| Minnesota | SF | Chi | Was | 19.0 | 21.9 | 335 | 18.0 | 19.7 |
| San Francisco | Min | Cin | TB | 19.7 | 21.9 | 343 | 20.3 | 15.7 |
| Buffalo | Mia | Cle | NYG | 20.7 | 26.5 | 352 | 15.7 | 23.0 |
| Green Bay | Oak | StL | Chi | 20.7 | 24.0 | 342 | 13.0 | 27.0 |
| Tennessee | SD | KC | NYJ | 22.7 | 21.3 | 352 | 22.0 | 21.7 |
| Cincinnati | StL | SF | Cle | 23.7 | 26.6 | 361 | 19.7 | 25.3 |
| Cleveland | NYJ | Buf | Cin | 30.0 | 25.1 | 383 | 26.7 | 25.3 |
| Home games for team in first column are in bold. | ||||||||
Great matchups: These offenses face poor defenses in Weeks 14-16.
Cleveland Browns -- Wk14-@NYJ, Wk15-BUF, Wk16-@CIN
"What's it going to take to get Braylon Edwards off your hands?" That's the question you should be asking your competition -- if possible, ask it after the Steelers beat up on him a little on Sunday. Buffalo and Cincinnati currently rank in the bottom four in passing defense, and the Jets aren't much better at 23rd. Another interesting point is that the Browns' opponents are bad against the run too, and since each of these games will be played in cold weather country, it's reasonable to think the Browns will work their ground game also. Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are solid trade targets. Browns offensive players, by far, have the easiest Fantasy playoff schedule.
Cincinnati Bengals -- Wk14-@STL, Wk15-SF, Wk16-CLE
Who would have thought that the Bengals would be the patsies in Week 16, for the possibly playoff-bound Browns. The Rams and Niners are 2-14 combined through Week 9, and both are among the worst rushing defenses in the game, allowing on average about 128 rushing yards per game. Both have better pass defenses, but they can't get to the quarterback and Cincinnati is third in sacks allowed. So expect Carson Palmer and company to fluff up their stats against these teams. WR Chris Henry just returned from an eight-game suspension and he's still only owned in 55 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, despite Chad Johnson coming off a strained neck that forced him to be carted off the field.
Buffalo Bills -- Wk14-MIA, Wk15-@CLE, Wk16-NYG
The Bills' offense currently ranks 31st in the NFL, but their soft schedule to finish out the Fantasy docket makes some of their skill players more valuable. The Dolphins are 31st against the run and the Browns statistically still have the worst overall defense in the league. The Giants have rebounded in recent weeks, but their pass defense was in the lower echelon in the first six weeks of the season. Marshawn Lynch has quietly become a top-seven running back in most formats, so it'll be difficult to pry him away from anyone. But Josh Reed is a cheap option that you can likely pick up off the free-agent pile that could serve as a No. 4 WR for this late stretch. He has 10 catches for 105 yards in his past two games. The Bills' three opponents have allowed an average of 16 passing TDs so far, the highest average through nine weeks.
Green Bay Packers -- Wk14-OAK, Wk15-@STL, Wk16-@CHI
The Packers will face the three-worst combined rushing defenses (27th) in the NFL. The Raiders and Bears games will be played in chilly weather, which further helps Green Bay's rushing attack. Whether it's Ryan Grant (head) or Brandon Jackson, the Pack's starting tailback will be a solid No. 2 RB for this stretch. Their running game will be stuffed in Week 10 against the second-ranked Vikings' run defense, which has allowed just three rushing touchdowns so far, so trade for them next week if your deadline allows.
Tennessee Titans -- Wk14-SD, Wk15-@KC, Wk16-NYJ
Tennessee has a solid defense that gets the ball back quickly for its offense. Titans' opponents over this span combine to be equally weak against both the run and the pass. Over the past four weeks, only a handful of running backs have more standard Fantasy points than LenDale White. In that span, he (401) is second to only Adrian Peterson (653) in yardage. Most owners likely consider him as a No. 3 RB on their roster, so make a move now to get him before your playoffs.
Horrible matchups: These offenses face solid defenses in Weeks 14-16.
Seattle Seahawks -- Wk14-ARI, Wk15-@CAR, Wk16-BAL
If you were hoping that Shaun Alexander will pick it up come playoff time, you're in for a letdown. The 'Hawks face three teams that are allowing an average of 102 yards rushing per game. The Ravens have allowed just two rushing TDs all year, equaled only by Pittsburgh through nine weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars -- Wk14-CAR, Wk15-@PIT, Wk16-OAK
David Garrard should be back under center for the Jaguars in the next week or so, but his outlook is anything but favorable for this three-week set. Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, Oakland has an excellent secondary that has helped them to a No. 4 ranking against the pass, and Carolina has allowed just seven passing touchdowns (tied for second in the NFL).
Miami Dolphins -- Wk14-@BUF, Wk15-BAL, Wk16-@NE
It's doubtful RB Jesse Chatman was your savior off the waiver wire once Ronnie Brown went down, but come Week 14, he's going to be in trouble. Baltimore and New England have two of the best defenses around, and the 'Fins will be on the road for two games in the Northeast.
Houston Texans -- Wk14-TB, Wk15-DEN, Wk16-@IND
No passing offense will face a tougher stretch than the Texans in Week 14-16. QB Matt Schaub is still trying to shake off the effects of a concussion, but he should be fine for this part of the schedule. They'll face the second- (TB), third- (IND) and eighth-best (DEN) passing defenses. WR Andre Johnson (knee) has just 14 catches so far this year, but he's likely not going to do much more against CBs Ronde Barber, Champ Bailey and Marlin Jackson.
Chicago Bears -- Wk14-@WAS, Wk15-@MIN, Wk16-GB
The Bears offensive players are having a Super Bowl hangover season and two road games in the Fantasy playoffs won't help. These three opponents have held their opponents to just 86.4 yards rushing per game so far. Much has been made about Adrian Peterson and the Vikings running game, but how about their second-ranked rushing defense? Cedric Benson's disappointing first year as the lone starter will have a bad ending.
Interesting notes: New England is at home for all three Fantasy playoff weekends and two of those games are against poor teams (PIT, NYJ and MIA). With the Colts expected to keep pace with the Pats, they will likely be battling it out for homefield advantage, which means the starters will see plenty of minutes. Do we need to tell you to hold onto Tom Brady and Randy Moss? ... San Francisco also has three home games in that span. [Crickets] ... The Redskins face three teams (CHI, @NYG and @MIN) that have an average of 25 sacks already this season. The Giants lead the NFL in that category and the Bears are tied for second ... The Jets face two of the top four total defenses in their Weeks 15 and 16 mathchups (vs. CLE in Week 14).
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