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David Gonos

Making plans for the Fantasy playoffs

Assuming you are near the top half of your standings, looking at how you can strengthen your team rather than overhaul it in hopes of climbing into the top six, this column is for you.

Most Fantasy Football leagues will hold their playoffs in the three-week period of Weeks 14-16. So it's prudent to look ahead to that time span to see which teams/Fantasy players will be up against horrible (or elite) defenses.

While you don't want to bail on your superstars to load up on players with soft playoff games (remember, you still have to make the playoffs), you can certainly trade depth with bad matchups for players with good matchups. Since most trades are viewed by other owners with a What-have-you-done-for-me-lately perspective, you'll be proactive, which means trades are more likely to happen since you both are looking at different values.

Let's first look at some teams/players that have great matchups in Weeks 14-16. The stats recited are through Week 9, but realize that four teams have played nine games (and are on a bye in Week 10), while all others have played just eight games.

NFL Schedules during the Fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16)
Three-week schedule Total Defense Def. Averages
Team Week
14
Week
15
Week
16
Total
Def Rk
Ave.
Pts/G
Ave.
Yds/G
Passing
Defenses
Rushing
Defenses
Seattle Ari Car Bal 8.7 20.5 303 11.0 13.7
Jacksonville Car Pit Oak 10.3 18.1 299 7.0 18.0
Indianapolis Bal Oak Hou 11.3 22.3 310 8.3 18.0
Atlanta NO TB Ari 12.0 20.3 314 12.0 15.0
Miami Buf Bal NE 12.0 18.5 306 14.7 9.3
Philadelphia NYG Dal NO 12.0 21.7 313 17.7 8.7
Houston TB Den Ind 12.3 20.1 308 4.3 21.3
N.Y. Jets Cle NE Ten 12.7 20.3 319 16.3 11.3
New Orleans Atl Ari Phi 13.0 20.8 321 14.3 16.0
Oakland GB Ind Jac 13.3 17.5 316 16.3 13.0
Chicago Was Min GB 14.3 19.0 323 23.0 6.3
St. Louis Cin GB Pit 14.3 20.2 316 16.3 13.3
Baltimore Ind Mia Sea 15.0 21.3 321 11.3 19.7
Detroit Dal SD KC 15.3 20.2 325 20.0 13.7
Pittsburgh NE Jac StL 15.7 20.9 322 14.7 15.7
Carolina Jac Sea Dal 16.3 19.5 329 22.7 11.3
N.Y. Giants Phi Was Buf 17.0 19.6 333 22.7 11.7
Denver KC Hou SD 17.7 21.3 335 18.0 19.0
Tampa Bay Hou Atl SF 17.7 23.1 333 13.3 22.7
Dallas Det Phi Car 18.0 20.9 335 22.3 13.0
New England Pit NYJ Mia 18.0 22.7 322 10.0 21.3
Arizona Sea NO Atl 18.7 20.6 338 22.3 15.3
Kansas City Den Ten Det 18.7 22.3 329 16.7 15.0
San Diego Ten Det Den 18.7 22.3 329 16.7 15.0
Washington Chi NYG Min 18.7 20.6 334 20.7 13.0
Minnesota SF Chi Was 19.0 21.9 335 18.0 19.7
San Francisco Min Cin TB 19.7 21.9 343 20.3 15.7
Buffalo Mia Cle NYG 20.7 26.5 352 15.7 23.0
Green Bay Oak StL Chi 20.7 24.0 342 13.0 27.0
Tennessee SD KC NYJ 22.7 21.3 352 22.0 21.7
Cincinnati StL SF Cle 23.7 26.6 361 19.7 25.3
Cleveland NYJ Buf Cin 30.0 25.1 383 26.7 25.3
Home games for team in first column are in bold.

Great matchups: These offenses face poor defenses in Weeks 14-16.

Cleveland Browns -- Wk14-@NYJ, Wk15-BUF, Wk16-@CIN
"What's it going to take to get Braylon Edwards off your hands?" That's the question you should be asking your competition -- if possible, ask it after the Steelers beat up on him a little on Sunday. Buffalo and Cincinnati currently rank in the bottom four in passing defense, and the Jets aren't much better at 23rd. Another interesting point is that the Browns' opponents are bad against the run too, and since each of these games will be played in cold weather country, it's reasonable to think the Browns will work their ground game also. Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are solid trade targets. Browns offensive players, by far, have the easiest Fantasy playoff schedule.

Cincinnati Bengals -- Wk14-@STL, Wk15-SF, Wk16-CLE
Who would have thought that the Bengals would be the patsies in Week 16, for the possibly playoff-bound Browns. The Rams and Niners are 2-14 combined through Week 9, and both are among the worst rushing defenses in the game, allowing on average about 128 rushing yards per game. Both have better pass defenses, but they can't get to the quarterback and Cincinnati is third in sacks allowed. So expect Carson Palmer and company to fluff up their stats against these teams. WR Chris Henry just returned from an eight-game suspension and he's still only owned in 55 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, despite Chad Johnson coming off a strained neck that forced him to be carted off the field.

Buffalo Bills -- Wk14-MIA, Wk15-@CLE, Wk16-NYG
The Bills' offense currently ranks 31st in the NFL, but their soft schedule to finish out the Fantasy docket makes some of their skill players more valuable. The Dolphins are 31st against the run and the Browns statistically still have the worst overall defense in the league. The Giants have rebounded in recent weeks, but their pass defense was in the lower echelon in the first six weeks of the season. Marshawn Lynch has quietly become a top-seven running back in most formats, so it'll be difficult to pry him away from anyone. But Josh Reed is a cheap option that you can likely pick up off the free-agent pile that could serve as a No. 4 WR for this late stretch. He has 10 catches for 105 yards in his past two games. The Bills' three opponents have allowed an average of 16 passing TDs so far, the highest average through nine weeks.

Green Bay Packers -- Wk14-OAK, Wk15-@STL, Wk16-@CHI
The Packers will face the three-worst combined rushing defenses (27th) in the NFL. The Raiders and Bears games will be played in chilly weather, which further helps Green Bay's rushing attack. Whether it's Ryan Grant (head) or Brandon Jackson, the Pack's starting tailback will be a solid No. 2 RB for this stretch. Their running game will be stuffed in Week 10 against the second-ranked Vikings' run defense, which has allowed just three rushing touchdowns so far, so trade for them next week if your deadline allows.

Tennessee Titans -- Wk14-SD, Wk15-@KC, Wk16-NYJ
Tennessee has a solid defense that gets the ball back quickly for its offense. Titans' opponents over this span combine to be equally weak against both the run and the pass. Over the past four weeks, only a handful of running backs have more standard Fantasy points than LenDale White. In that span, he (401) is second to only Adrian Peterson (653) in yardage. Most owners likely consider him as a No. 3 RB on their roster, so make a move now to get him before your playoffs.

Horrible matchups: These offenses face solid defenses in Weeks 14-16.

Seattle Seahawks -- Wk14-ARI, Wk15-@CAR, Wk16-BAL
If you were hoping that Shaun Alexander will pick it up come playoff time, you're in for a letdown. The 'Hawks face three teams that are allowing an average of 102 yards rushing per game. The Ravens have allowed just two rushing TDs all year, equaled only by Pittsburgh through nine weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars -- Wk14-CAR, Wk15-@PIT, Wk16-OAK
David Garrard should be back under center for the Jaguars in the next week or so, but his outlook is anything but favorable for this three-week set. Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, Oakland has an excellent secondary that has helped them to a No. 4 ranking against the pass, and Carolina has allowed just seven passing touchdowns (tied for second in the NFL).

Miami Dolphins -- Wk14-@BUF, Wk15-BAL, Wk16-@NE
It's doubtful RB Jesse Chatman was your savior off the waiver wire once Ronnie Brown went down, but come Week 14, he's going to be in trouble. Baltimore and New England have two of the best defenses around, and the 'Fins will be on the road for two games in the Northeast.

Houston Texans -- Wk14-TB, Wk15-DEN, Wk16-@IND
No passing offense will face a tougher stretch than the Texans in Week 14-16. QB Matt Schaub is still trying to shake off the effects of a concussion, but he should be fine for this part of the schedule. They'll face the second- (TB), third- (IND) and eighth-best (DEN) passing defenses. WR Andre Johnson (knee) has just 14 catches so far this year, but he's likely not going to do much more against CBs Ronde Barber, Champ Bailey and Marlin Jackson.

Chicago Bears -- Wk14-@WAS, Wk15-@MIN, Wk16-GB
The Bears offensive players are having a Super Bowl hangover season and two road games in the Fantasy playoffs won't help. These three opponents have held their opponents to just 86.4 yards rushing per game so far. Much has been made about Adrian Peterson and the Vikings running game, but how about their second-ranked rushing defense? Cedric Benson's disappointing first year as the lone starter will have a bad ending.

Interesting notes: New England is at home for all three Fantasy playoff weekends and two of those games are against poor teams (PIT, NYJ and MIA). With the Colts expected to keep pace with the Pats, they will likely be battling it out for homefield advantage, which means the starters will see plenty of minutes. Do we need to tell you to hold onto Tom Brady and Randy Moss? ... San Francisco also has three home games in that span. [Crickets] ... The Redskins face three teams (CHI, @NYG and @MIN) that have an average of 25 sacks already this season. The Giants lead the NFL in that category and the Bears are tied for second ... The Jets face two of the top four total defenses in their Weeks 15 and 16 mathchups (vs. CLE in Week 14).

Feel free to send me a question or a comment. Here are a few that you can just clip and paste. "What have you been smoking?" ... "Have you ever seen a football?" ... "You're an idiot -- but who should I start out of these 13 players?" ... "I have a beautiful sister that likes Fantasy dorks, want her phone number?" ... Send your comments, death threats, credit card numbers and beautiful sister's phone numbers to me by clicking on my Columnist page and writing a note through the feedback form.

 
 
 
Player News
Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Rams
Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."
Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

Shaun Hill
Hill wants return to Lions
Shaun Hill, QB, DET
11:19 AM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions backup QB Shaun Hill would like to return to Detroit in 2012. The Lions have told Hill, his representatives and others that they want him back as the primary backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill also wants to return to Detroit -- and might even take a slight discount to do so. The 32-year-old appeared in two games last year and attempted just three passes, but he made 10 starts in 2010, when Stafford missed 13 games with two separated throwing shoulders.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Hill, but unless he signs with a team and earns a starting job he would not be worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Jerricho Cotchery
Cotchery wants return to Steelers
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, PIT
11:15 AM
News: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery, who is an impending free agent, would like to return to Pittsburgh in 2012. “In exit meetings (with the Steelers), it was pretty much stated that they were very pleased with me, who I was on the field and off the field,” Cotchery said. “I’m everything that they thought I would be, so from their standpoint, they definitely would want me back. And I expressed the same desire, so we’ll see what happens.”
Analysis: Cotchery was coming off offseason back surgery last season and then missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. He finished with 16 catches for 237 yards, and he caught a 31-yard touchdown pass to force overtime against the Broncos in the wild-card playoff game. Keep an eye on what happens with Cotchery, but he has minimal Fantasy value heading into the year. He should not be drafted in most formats.

Cardinals
Kolb plans to be Cardinals starter
Cardinals, TQB ARI,
11:06 AM
News: The Arizona Republic reports that Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb is not worried about losing his job heading into 2012 with the speculation the team could sign Peyton Manning if he becomes a free agent. "I know how the NFL works," Kolb said, "anything is possible. I just try to keep my mind clear and do what I can on my end. I plan on having a great year and being a Cardinal for a long time." Kolb is due a $7 million bonus if he's on the roster March 17, and said "every indication on my end shows me that I'll be there." Kolb's first season with the Cardinals was hampered by a foot injury and concussion. He missed four games because of the foot and the last three games of the season with the concussion. "I feel good," Kolb said. "I'd say it took three to four weeks after the season was over to not have any symptoms. Once my mind cleared, I got back to working out."
Analysis: Kolb struggled in his first year with the Cardinals in 2011, and he was outplayed by John Skelton for most of the year. Kolb passed for 1,955 passing yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, but he will likely be the starter in 2012 if the team doesn't bring in Manning. Keep an eye on what happens, but Kolb is only worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy QB in deeper leagues if he remains the starter with the Cardinals.

Matt Prater
Broncos could franchise Prater
Matt Prater, K, DEN
10:54 AM
News: The Denver Post reports that the Broncos could use the franchise tag on impending free agent kicker Matt Prater. The projected salary for a franchised kicker this year is less than $2.6 million — down 19 percent from $3.176 million in 2011. Prater said near season's end that after five seasons of kicking on year-to-year deals, he was hoping free agency would bring him the security of a long-term contract. Prater drew a $1.835 million salary as a restricted free agent in 2011, when he had four walkoff field goals for wins, including successful overtime kicks of 52 yards at Miami and 51 yards against the Bears.
Analysis: Prater had a solid year in 2011. He was 19 of 25 on field goals and made all 30 extra points. Keep an eye on what happens with him this offseason, but he could be worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues if he remains with the Broncos.

 
 
 
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