Fantasy & Reality: Get insured
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
We're nearly done with Week 11. Teams have six games left, but owners have just two until the Fantasy playoffs start to kick in. Trade deadlines have come and gone, and just about every owner knows whether they're going to the postseason, fighting for a spot, or getting ready for their 2008 Fantasy baseball draft.
As a Fantasy Football analyst, there's not a whole lot of long-term advice I can offer for this season. So let me tell you what I did late last week, and hopefully it will prove to be valuable to you as well.
In one of my leagues with fellow CBSSports.com employees past and present, one in which you cannot have more than two QBs on your roster at any time (14-team league), I have Tom Brady as my QB, and obviously, I'm never going to bench him. I made the "insane" transaction of cutting Kurt Warner for Matt Cassel just before 1 p.m. kickoffs on Sunday.
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| Matt Cassel is one injury away from inheriting the keys to a Lamborghini. (US Presswire) |
But the reality of it is simple: I want to insure my strongest player.
Yes, I tried to move Warner before our trading deadline, but I didn't have many interested parties. And I got to thinking: Who is the better Fantasy backup QB -- an injury prone vet on a mediocre team or the guy who would be at the controls of an offensive juggernaut if Brady were to miss playing time? Cassel may not be as good as Brady, but I'm pretty sure he can chuck the ball deep to Randy Moss and hit Wes Welker on short inside slants.
The move I made should have been copied by another team in our league. The owners who had the No. 3 overall pick in our draft got Larry Johnson in Round 1 and Adrian Peterson in Round 2. Not once during the season did they try picking up Priest Holmes or trading for Chester Taylor, and now they're paying the price: They were tied with me for first heading into Week 11, and now they're a game back thanks to their tactical error (their RBs for Week 11 were Leon Washington and DeAngelo Williams).
In a season where injuries to major Fantasy players are as common as Hollywood starlets being arrested, why wouldn't you pick up cheap insurance for your best players?
But there's a catch -- some players don't have capable backups, and your best backup is a capable player at the same position on another team. Randy Moss, for example, would be replaced by Donte Stallworth if he missed playing time. But Stallworth is probably owned by someone else and isn't getting dropped anytime soon. Stallworth's replacement would be Jabar Gaffney, who has nine touchdowns in six seasons and one career 100-yard game. Chances are there is a better option on your waiver wire.
So here's a look at the best stud Fantasy players' real-life backups -- guys you should target adding off the waiver wire this week.
Quarterbacks
Matt Cassel, New England: Brady's backup and the guy who would presumably land three touchdowns per week if he saw extended playing time.
Brad Johnson, Dallas: Johnson was a total bust last season but has a strong arm and would be throwing to T.O. and Jason Witten if Tony Romo were to sit out.
Brady Quinn, Cleveland: This is a very risky suggestion, but based on how he did in the preseason and the overall effectiveness of the Cleveland offense, Quinn could post a couple of solid efforts if Derek Anderson got hurt.
Running backs
Ladell Betts, Washington: Betts took over for Clinton Portis late last season and helped Fantasy owners win a championship. He's played horribly this year but would probably improve if he had regular playing time each week.
Correll Buckhalter, Philadelphia: This is an absolute must pick-up for those owners with Brian Westbrook. With Donovan McNabb's status in doubt, whoever is running the ball for the Eagles will be in line for big, big stats.
Najeh Davenport, Pittsburgh: The Steelers' passing game may be drawing plenty of kudos (maybe not after their Week 11 performance), but there's no doubt that if Willie Parker caught a flat, Davenport would be in there getting his reps, including at the goal line.
Reuben Droughns, N.Y. Giants: Brandon Jacobs is already battling a hamstring injury and could miss some time. Droughns is relatively fresh in comparison and would be the Giants' primary running back in Jacobs' stead, especially with Derrick Ward banged up.
Kenton Keith, Indianapolis: Keith has proven to be a very capable runner for the Colts. The offense, if and when they get back on track, wouldn't miss a beat if Keith subbed for Joseph Addai.
Michael Pittman, Tampa Bay: Owners have fallen in love with Earnest Graham as he's posted big games in three of his last four weeks, so insure his spot with Pittman, who is still a good two-way threat.
Chester Taylor, Minnesota: You're a week too late ...
Michael Turner, San Diego: Turner hasn't seen much playing time this year because LaDainian Tomlinson has received the vast majority of the reps as the Chargers have been behind often. But Turner is an exceptional replacement and is another must for owners to hunt down.
Jason Wright, Cleveland: Wright isn't as physical as Jamal Lewis, but he has proven that he's a solid outside runner and fabulous receiver out of the backfield, two attributes that actually would assist the Browns offense.
Wide receivers
Andre Davis, Houston: Davis had some very good games in Andre Johnson's place earlier this season and would regain the opportunity to play more if Johnson has a setback.
Bryant Johnson, Arizona: Anquan Boldin is playing hurt and could be one big hit away from being sidelined. That would open the door for Johnson, whose play isn't as consistent as Boldin's but would still be good insurance for both him and Larry Fitzgerald.
James Jones, Green Bay: Greg Jennings proved last year and early this year that he's injury prone, so Jones is a must-add for those owners leaning on Jennings in their Fantasy leagues.
Nate Washington, Pittsburgh: Santonio Holmes has emerged as the big-play receiver in the Steel City, but if he goes down, Washington's speed and deep-route ability would replace him.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: Rudi Johnson is ready to roll. Boy, did I learn the hard way that Rudi's not going to be a big part of the Bengals' plans. A week after getting 22 carries against the Ravens, he got eight vs. Arizona. That's mostly due to Cincinnati playing from behind, but that's probably going to be the case all season. Johnson might actually be bench material.
Reality: Chester Taylor can still motor. We were bold in suggesting Taylor as a No. 1 Fantasy RB for Week 11, but he came through with flying colors for all the people who started him. Of course, this was expected, going up against the Raiders' crummy run defense, but three touchdowns was a big surprise. I have a feeling he will play elsewhere in 2008.
Fantasy: No one runs on the Steelers. In yet another example of how hard to figure this season has been, Thomas Jones rumbled for 117 yards on the Steelers in Week 11. This would have probably been the last game I would have picked a 100-yard rusher to smack the Steelers. I don't expect Jones to break out like this every week, but at least now he's given us something to think about.
Reality: Terrell Owens is unstoppable. Maybe it was Owens roaming free against the Redskins' banged up secondary, but it looked to me like he was a man playing against kids on Sunday. And he's been so well spoken and well behaved this season -- who the heck is this guy?!
Fantasy: Earnest Graham isn't a Fantasy lock to start each week. Looking inside the numbers, Graham wasn't a key part of the Bucs' offense for much of the first half. Not until they built a big lead on the Falcons did Graham start to grind down the clock (he got his touchdown when the Bucs were up 24-0 and chewing game clock late in the third). He did well because the Falcons stink, and the Bucs may have problems giving Graham extended carries like they did here when they play the Redskins, Saints and Texans in the next three weeks (not that those run defenses are good, but the Bucs will be hard pressed to build a lead on them).
Reality: The blueprint on how to beat the Steelers was laid out by the Jets. I went back and watched how the Jets took down Pittsburgh, and what I saw was an offensive line that couldn't contain a 3-4 defense that was easily containable before this season. The Jets pressed their pass coverage and made it hard for Ben Roethlisberger to find easy targets. They also blitzed like crazy, forcing TE Heath Miller to help on blocks and the offensive line to go in reverse. Center Sean Mahan, for example, was consistently backing up. The line gave Willie Parker no push (the Steelers eventually used Najeh Davenport's power run game in the second half), and Roethlisberger wasn't given much time to make a play. Not every team in the league has the corners to clamp down on Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes (I know the Dolphins don't, and they play the Steelers next), but opponents are going to start attacking their O-line, and it might not be good for Parker.
Strategy session
I need help figuring out who to start each week -- where might I look for CBSSports.com's answer to my problem?
On Sunday, I offered to help readers out with their lineup questions and got a ton of "Who Should I Start" e-mails. I was happy to answer them, but I want to give you all a page on our site that you can use to figure out your own lineup quandaries and save you some time, too.
Each week, Jamey Eisenberg and I spend an afternoon ranking the top players at every position. This is must-read material when trying to determine who you should start or sit.
You can find this page at http://rankings.sportsline.com. We update the rankings for the week every Tuesday and maintain changes as the week progresses. If you're debating between 'Player A' and 'Player B,' this list serves as the tiebreaker -- whomever is ranked higher is who we would suggest.
Best of all, we welcome any comments about our rankings. Put Attn: Rankings in the subject line. We're not above making changes based on good arguments from astute readers.
If you're new to the site, or didn't know about this page, we hope it serves you well. If you're a CBSSports.com veteran and knew about this page, then we hope you're taking advantage of it.
Future watch
A quick pre-offseason glance at non-playoff teams. Hopefully this will be of interest to those Fantasy owners out of their league's playoff race.
San Francisco 49ers: In my opinion, this is the worst team in football right now. Worse than the Dolphins. It's an easy call to make because they've played terribly on offense and underachieved on defense. Frank Gore is their hottest Fantasy property, and part of the reason for his awful play is because he's not getting the ball much. When he does get the rock, defenses are able to key in on him because San Francisco is so awful in the passing game. Then the Niners are behind in games and forget about Gore and throw (unsuccessfully, I might add). It's a gigantic waste of Gore's ability and talent, not to mention playing time (he's only missed one game with numerous nicks and bruises). Tight end Vernon Davis would also be better if the Niners had some help at other spots. I expect this offense to be completely re-tooled for 2008, possibly with a new quarterback at the helm as Alex Smith has proven to be a catastrophic bust. Worst of all, the Niners won't have their first-round pick, instead owning Indianapolis', thanks to a pair of trades made back in April on Draft Day. I expect the Niners to either go offensive line or wide receiver, making WRs Early Doucet or Limas Sweed or OT Chris Williams possible draftees.
Likely Fantasy starters: Frank Gore, Vernon Davis
Likely Fantasy sleepers: Jason Hill
Guys who might be on the move: Anyone not named Gore or Davis.
Parting shots
• One more thing I noticed from the Steelers-Jets game: Roethlisberger has gotten into a routine before he snaps the ball. In shotgun, he resets himself twice before snapping, and when he's under center he seems to replant his left leg right before calling for the ball. I think the Jets noticed this, because they were in the Steelers' backfield quite often, especially when Roethlisberger was under center. If someone knows anyone on the Steelers, pass this tidbit along.
• The next great QB-WR combo we're going to see is in Houston with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. In the three games Johnson has played this season, he has at least 110 receiving yards and at least one score in each. Schaub is a smart, fundamentally sound quarterback with better arm strength than anyone has anticipated, and Johnson is just a superb athlete with a great head on his shoulders. Start thinking about making Schaub your starting Fantasy QB next season -- especially if Houston picks up another receiver to go along with Johnson, TE Owen Daniels, and learning-on-the-job rookie WR Jacoby Jones.
• How insane was that finish in Baltimore? I thought the best part was when the referee had to explain to the Ravens fans how he came to the conclusion that the field goal was good and that the refs initially blew the call. You can see the referee swallow hard before announcing the decision. I wonder if he made it home safe.
• I think when referees overturn a call due to instant replay, they should be forced to apologize. I mean, that's the diplomatic thing to do, right? Plus it serves as a role model for youngsters.
• The Ravens, by the way, are toast.
• Lastly, you can look at the numbers and see that Peyton Manning isn't doing as well without Marvin Harrison. The Colts are saying he has a bruised knee, but we're sure the injury is more serious than they're letting on. Is it time to give up on Manning if you have another solid QB on your bench? It's the toughest call you'll ever have to make, but it's pretty clear that passers like Tony Romo and Brett Favre have eclipsed Manning. I still wouldn't bench him over other QBs, though, especially with a Thanksgiving date with the Falcons ahead. And let's also keep in mind one thing -- Herman Edwards-coached teams have always schemed well against Manning.
Have a question or comment for Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
